Management Travis Green [Head Coach]

[OD99]

thinking about it and maybe we should try pinto on the wing, at least until he gets going

Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson
Giroux-Stutzle-Pinto
Amadio-Greig-Gaudette
Gregor-Ostapchuk-Cousins

If the combination works then when perron is back he can bump amadio/gaudette down and gregor/cousins can fight for the last spot

I am all for it.

Get Pinto a few more looks at the net with Timmy feeding him and let Greig back to his normal position in the middle.

The 3rd line is generating nothing now, so can't lose what you don't have, and if Pinto can get going that is a net positive. He can also help out in the dot with G. They can each take the draw on their strong side.

 

[Micklebot]

Is 25th a bubble team? Where does the bubble start? I don’t think we’re a bubble team, we’re an inconsistent sub .500 team.

Bubble team is dependent on the other teams, we have 8 teams within 3 pts of each other for the last wild card spot, that's the bubble right now (probably could even include Mtl and go to 9 teams within 4 pts)

A two game win streak can put you in the wild card spot.

11 teams in the east are "inconsistent" this year, or more accurately, 11 teams are all in the mix for that last wildcard. that's the reality this year whether people want to admit it or not.

 

[Tuna99]

Bubble team is dependent on the other teams, we have 8 teams within 3 pts of each other for the last wild card spot, that's the bubble right now (probably could even include Mtl and go to 9 teams within 4 pts)

A two game win streak can put you in the wild card spot.

11 teams in the east are "inconsistent" this year, or more accurately, 11 teams are all in the mix for that last wildcard. that's the reality this year whether people want to admit it or not.

So very team in the league is a bumble team. Okay

 

[Micklebot]

So very team in the league is a bumble team. Okay

Until they play their way out of the bubble. It's a pretty simple concept to understand, so I'm not sure why you're struggling with it.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I love that some of you are in here like "what more can the coach do?" and defending a sub .500 record like your lives depend on it.

 

[OD99]

I love that some of you are in here like "what more can the coach do?" and defending a sub .500 record like your lives depend on it.

That is pretty wild considering some of the offensive talent we have.

It also validates why I am perplexed so many times during a game when a Senator, in a prime scoring spot, defers to someone else or double clutches and doesn't get a shot away.

Is there a spot to see individual high danger shots? I am curious how our players are ranked.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Well they did reach .500 in December and are in the wild card race for the first time in almost a decade. They finally have at least 1 goalie in house that looks like he isn't a train wreck and gives reason for optimism. That was the biggest factor heading in and appears to be coming around even if the backup can't give quality starts. Many advanced numbers show progress, even if imperfect. 1 important save from your goalie last game and they're being praised for a 5-1-1 streak. I think there is reason for some optimism in this first full year for management and coaching staff, but that doesn't mean they're going to run over the league and I think most would agree when looking at the roster.

 

[LiseL]

It's not cherry-picking out anything, it's removing the clear and obvious outlier to talk about what this team is actually doing on the PP. We've been a 20% PP team for 3 times as long as we were a 40%+ PP team.

Yes, this PP% wouldn't be too bad under different circumstances. Washington is 2nd in the league in 5v5 GD, Dallas is 4th, Toronto 6th, Canucks 15th, Oilers 18th...Ottawa 22nd. Washington, Dallas and Toronto are all top 10 teams in the league so far. Vancouver and Edmonton are 12th and 13th.

Well, would our differential be better if we weren't 25th in 5v5 GF? Like, what's the point you're making here? Cause it seems to be an entirely pedantic one with no real response to the actual issue.

Ok but our special teams are a net negative over the last 20 games (fewer PP goals than goals allowed on the PK) so the below average 5v5 numbers stand out. We could probably survive one of those 3 components not being above average. My expectation is, in response to someone saying what more can the coach do, to see the coach improve each of those areas. I never said they needed to be elite in any of those 3 areas but when we're not getting it done on the PP, the PK or at 5v5, it seems ludicrous to be openly wondering how the coach can get better results. Maybe the coaching staff could start by getting better results in 2 out of the 3 areas. Or is it preposterous to ask the coach to do better?

Especially the PK as that is all about structure, playing your man, paying attention to details.

Reading the play and situational awareness are also factors but that takes hockey IQ, something not all the players have so you need to put a system in place that takes that into account.

I guess for the PP, they could tell the forwards "Shoot more!" and the D to "Shoot less!". Too many plays die with overpassing or D shooting it into traffic. That last part is also true for some of the 5v5 play.

I also think some of their bad play is due to a lack of confidence: poor passing, treating puck as a hot potato, not converting on their chances, puck watching. I don't think coaching can fix that, only winning will.

 

[LiseL]

Well they did reach .500 in December and are in the wild card race for the first time in almost a decade. They finally have at least 1 goalie in house that looks like he isn't a train wreck and gives reason for optimism. That was the biggest factor heading in and appears to be coming around even if the backup can't give quality starts. Many advanced numbers show progress, even if imperfect. 1 important save from your goalie last game and they're being praised for a 5-1-1 streak. I think there is reason for some optimism in this first full year for management and coaching staff, but that doesn't mean they're going to run over the league and I think most would agree when looking at the roster.

I think adding Jensen was also a huge factor.

 

[UglyPuckling]

If Ullmark was at .950 for the first 20 games of the season would have mean we had winning mentality?

“Odd” question. Minnesota is leading on the basis of save percentage with .926.

 

[Knave]

A point shot with traffic in front of the net would be a low danger scoring chance. A player in front of the goalie pushing it into the goalies pad would be a higher danger chance.

That tells you all you need to know about the garbage in, garbage out data models of the Moneyball crowd.

 

[Big Muddy]

It's not ideal, but if Forsberg can only provide 3 good starts and 7 awful starts out of every 10, I don't know what options you have. Ullmark said he wanted the big load, well, here it is.

Of course I don't have any actual answers, but it seems like this team has gotten mostly below replacement level this year and last from him, so maybe just a different guy without the baggage is worth trying, even if unspectacular. At some point they won't be able to just keep rolling him out there, they'll have to at least try a Belleville goalie.

Looks like a myriad of issues to me.

Secondary goal scoring is an issue:

• Pinto 1
• Sanderson 1
• Grieg 2
• Amadio 2
• Gregor 2
• Cousins 3

GA/GP is 9th worst (tied with 1 other team)

GF/GP is mid pack at 15th overall (tied with 1 other team)

PK% is 25th overall.

5v5 scoring is 27th overall (6th worst).

8th worst team based on point %.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Looks like a myriad of issues to me.

Secondary goal scoring is an issue:

• Pinto 1
• Sanderson 1
• Grieg 2
• Amadio 2
• Gregor 2
• Cousins 3

GA/GP is 9th worst (tied with 1 other team)

GF/GP is mid pack at 15th overall (tied with 1 other team)

PK% is 25th overall.

5v5 scoring is 27th overall (6th worst).

I do not deny there are other issues present, it was destined to be a bubble team and we knew that, but I still think they'll have to figure out a backup solution if they only get 3 quality starts and 7 dreadful ones out of 10.

Of the above, I think arguably the biggest are Sanderson and Pinto. Sanderson was supposed to be the driver offensively but he isn't that right now and it's a hole in the lineup. Pinto I think not only has been a disappointment, but the 3rd line guys in general look better and produce more if Pinto was playing as we expect. They're a bit offensively challenged up front, but I think they have more to give and many are snake bitten all at once. Signs of life from Pinto recently, so hopefully that changes. They also lack a top 6 forward for Stu to play with, but I have no solutions to that other than waiting for Perron and hoping he balances the lineup better, even if he's not the guy in the top 6.

Zub for Hamonic too. We all know Hammer does not belong on the top pairing, whether you love him or hate him.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I love that some of you are in here like "what more can the coach do?" and defending a sub .500 record like your lives depend on it.

Would be nice if the guy would tell you where he gets his info, and if using 5 on 5 or all strengths , or whatever parameters, as it is a guessing game.

I checked all combos of HDSF couldn’t find them in last place so went on to HDCF options using NaturalStatTrick

As HDCF%, /60 and count
All strengths and 5 on 5 none are last place.
Interesting to note, Pittsburgh top 2 in a lot of them.

 

[Micklebot]

Would be nice if the guy would tell you where he gets his info, and if using 5 on 5 or all strengths , or whatever parameters, as it is a guessing game.

I checked all combos of HDSF couldn’t find them in last place so went on to HDCF options using NaturalStatTrick

As HDCF%, /60 and count
All strengths and 5 on 5 none are last place.
Interesting to note, Pittsburgh top 2 in a lot of them.

His other tweets indicate he used Natural statrick

 

[Golden_Jet]

His other tweets indicate he used Natural statrick

Do we know if he uses 5 on 5 or not, or counts vs rates.
That was my only beef, as was hard to tell, as the worst I could get Ottawa trying all the combos, was third worst.

 

[Micklebot]

Do we know if he uses 5 on 5 or not, or counts vs rates.
That was my only beef, as was hard to tell, as the worst I could get Ottawa trying all the combos, was third worst.

If I recall, he has another tweet where he quotes a different number for 5v5,

I don't think rates vs counts should matter other that potential rounding errors.

 

[robsenz]

I love that some of you are in here like "what more can the coach do?" and defending a sub .500 record like your lives depend on it.

We are the ultimate perimeter team, can't find space in the middle of the ice so not very suprising really

 

[BankStreetParade]

Would be nice if the guy would tell you where he gets his info, and if using 5 on 5 or all strengths , or whatever parameters, as it is a guessing game.

I checked all combos of HDSF couldn’t find them in last place so went on to HDCF options using NaturalStatTrick

As HDCF%, /60 and count
All strengths and 5 on 5 none are last place.
Interesting to note, Pittsburgh top 2 in a lot of them.

Well I don't think any of those sites list HDSF as a percentage of overall shots. He probably plugged everything into a spreadsheet to get the numbers.

 

[Micklebot]

Well I don't think any of those sites list HDSF as a percentage of overall shots. He probably plugged everything into a spreadsheet to get the numbers.

Natural statrick has HDSF, it's just not one of the column's that are displayed by default.

I'm not sure what to make of the % of total shots metric since there are so many potential reasons for it.

For example, a team that is better at getting point shots through and on net would decrease it's overall % of HD shots since it would be increasing the number of low danger shots.

5v5, we're 8th in SCF/60, 15th in xGF/60 but 30th in HDCF/60.
High danger chances are anything that score more than 2 in the NST model, you get 2 for a shot from home plate, a +1 if it's a rebound, or rush chance, and a -1 if it's blocked. 2 is a medium danger chance (scoring chances are medium danger + High danger)/

So, maybe more of our high danger chances are getting blocked (turning them into medium danger chances) rather than missing the net?

I much prefer the xGF models which have far more variables they look at, they tend to do a better job than Scoring chance models when it comes to predicting goals, but it is none the less interesting that the team has such a big disparity between scoring chances and High danger chances.

If you look at the ranks of teams in SCF/60 and HDCF/60 (SCF Rank - HDCF Rank), we have the biggest discrepancy in the league at -22, with only one other team in the double digit negatives. Pretty odd.

 

[DrEasy]

We are the ultimate perimeter team, can't find space in the middle of the ice so not very suprising really

Even Brady has been playing more on the perimeter. He's not scoring as many dirty goals these days.

 

[Sting]

That is pretty wild considering some of the offensive talent we have.

It also validates why I am perplexed so many times during a game when a Senator, in a prime scoring spot, defers to someone else or double clutches and doesn't get a shot away.

Is there a spot to see individual high danger shots? I am curious how our players are ranked.

I think the problem is that quite frankly, we have one elite offensive talent in Timmy. There's lots of other guys who are good: Batherson, Giroux, Brady. Norris is an average offensive player with a great shot. Guys like Pinto and Greig have potential but their development has stagnated.

So the stat is a good reflection of roster composition, in my opinion. We simply do not have enough high-end offensive talent.

 

[PlayOn]

I think the problem is that quite frankly, we have one elite offensive talent in Timmy. There's lots of other guys who are good: Batherson, Giroux, Brady. Norris is an average offensive player with a great shot. Guys like Pinto and Greig have potential but their development has stagnated.

So the stat is a good reflection of roster composition, in my opinion. We simply do not have enough high-end offensive talent.

The Sens have three forwards in the top 32 of NHL scoring. We are short of depth, not high-end offensive talent. And our dmen don’t contribute enough - no real shot threats, Chabot’s a good possession player but not all that creative in the offensive zone and Sanderson is struggling. That’s really the crux of the issue, our high-end talent is not necessarily at the level of a cup winning team but there are playoff teams with less.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Well I don't think any of those sites list HDSF as a percentage of overall shots. He probably plugged everything into a spreadsheet to get the numbers.

Yes NST does, and they weren’t last, by trying different combos of parameters.

 

[jbeck5]

Green is the least of the Sens' problems; I believe he's done a commendable job. Do you truly think that the person behind the bench makes a difference? Personally, I don't. It's all about goaltending for me. Show me good goaltending, and I'll show you a good coach. I understand you have a bias against Green, and it's clouding your judgment.

I disagree. Over my 30 years, I've seen countless teams with mediocre looking teams on paper make the playoffs because of a good structured system implemented by the coach.

Not like Jacques Martin had star goaltending. His system made goalies look pretty good.

Same with guys like Jacques Lemaire for example.