Forget everything I said about the Leafs' roster the other day. That was two days ago, and of course since then I've completely changed my mind about pretty much everything.
This is not what I really want to happen, but what I think might happen with the Leafs' roster:
1. Fortunately, the Leafs have more than 23 NHL-calibre players -- or at least nearly, supposedly, or possibly NHL-calibre players -- so even with a full 23-player roster some will have to be traded or exposed to waivers.
2. The Leafs can only fit 22 players under the salary cap, and that's without even having Pacioretty under contract. They will absolutely have to make some roster moves before the season begins, and I hesitate to speculate what those moves might be, aside from those noted below.
3. Matthew Knies is the only waivers-exempt player the Leafs will keep on their NHL roster. Every other waivers-exempt player -- including Cowan, Minten, and Grebenkin -- will be sent to junior, the AHL or loaned to a European league, as the case may be.
4. The Leafs will keep the following 22 players on their NHL roster, subject to changes caused by trades and/or injuries:
Knies -- Matthews -- Domi
Robertson -- Nylander -- Marner
Pacioretty -- Tavares -- Jarnkrok
McMann -- Kampf -- Holmberg
Reaves
Rielly -- Tanev
McCabe -- Benoit
Ekman-Larsson -- Liljegren
Hakanpaa
Woll
Stolarz
5. The Leafs will trade or place on waivers the following players:
Dewar
Steeves
Abruzzese
Timmins
Rifai
Mermis
Myers
Murray
6. I think that pretty much covers their roster. If they sign Lorentz, they will have to place another player on waivers absent trades and injuries.
7. I think there will be injuries. If player(s) go on LTIR the Leafs might use that to shelter player like Dewar, Steeves, Timmins, Rifai, and Murray from waivers - but not all of them and which ones I wouldn't know.
8. I think that players like Kampf, Jarnkrok, Dewar, Steeves, Timmins, and/or Murray might be targeted for trade -- but which ones are unknown.
9. I would rather they try to move Kampf, Jarnkrok, and Reaves to keep players like Dewar, Steeves, Timmins, and Rifai -- but to be honest, I don't think any or all of those players would be any great loss. Life would go on in much the same way, with or without them.