GDT: Training Camp 2021: Everyone Else Too Lazy to Make a Thread

[bl02]

Getting the feeling that Mika will at least miss the first week of camp. I guess at least its a good thing he already has familiarity with his linemates.

 

[bl02]

How have Kakko and Laf looked at the training camp? Both have had a long training seasons.

Wish we knew. I mean why couldn't the Rangers take a few 10 second clips of some of the players the last few days? any reason for the secrecy? It's definitely not a league thing. Even saw some clips of the Flyers scrimmage. Someone mentioned the Knights posted their scrimmage.

 

[Kords]

Wish we knew. I mean why couldn't the Rangers take a few 10 second clips of some of the players the last few days? any reason for the secrecy? It's definitely not a league thing. Even saw some clips of the Flyers scrimmage. Someone mentioned the Knights posted their scrimmage.

They may post a few clips throughout the day like they have been. Gonna need to see that Kakko snipe.

 

[romba]

They may post a few clips throughout the day like they have been. Gonna need to see that Kakko snipe.

Seen vey few actual playing clips posted this TC since the beat reported aren't allowed there.

 

[leetch99]

Hopefully push each other in a competitive yet cooperative way. Would rather have them pushing each other to be better for the betterment of the team than getting angry because so and so isn't the top dog or something. At least they don't play the same wing

e: with Panarin hopefully it's just a little tweak and a rest. With COVID and all I get nervous about these things...

Hopefully they can push EVERYBODY or at least a couple of fellows we expect more out of . I think they will . Sure ...some games will be growing pains but the bright spots will shine and bring us great rewards . I won't lie ....Wilson and Johnson scare me playing them 8-9 games whatever it is . We should grab a guy like Brett Gallant from the AHL...700,000 guy with a big right hand . Johnson and him are off ice buddies....would neutralize him at least . Just thinking out loud here . EDIT...Anybody at all just to give Lemieux a break against these guys...send him down when we play the other clubs...

 

[leetch99]

Kakko was fine until he obviously gassed out.

We need to remember the absurd amount of travel he went through over 10 months with the WJC, flying back to Finland, going to the worlds, flying out to Vancouver for the draft, flying to NY for prospects camp, flying back home and then immediately pretty much jumping into training for like a month before flying back to NY for camp.

He didn't get to take a breath for maybe more than 2 or 3 weeks max at any point.

Plus we should remember he was in a new city...new food...with a couple of medical conditions to deal with and a million bucks in his back pocket LOL....an adjustment for any teenager .

 

[Crease]

Anything of note today? I've been following . . . um, other things . . . on Twitter today.

 

[Joey Bones]

Anything of note today? I've been following . . . um, other things . . . on Twitter today.

Kakko scored twice on Shesty, one of which was a snipe. Panarin and Hajek didn't practice but will partake tomorrow.

 

[EXTRAS]

How has Austin rueschoff looked? Big 6'7 guyyy

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Kakko scored twice on Shesty, one of which was a snipe. Panarin and Hajek didn't practice but will partake tomorrow.

First JJ, now KK? Shesty giving up goals to the 2 worst players in the NHL last year is not a good look.

 

[Joey Bones]

First JJ, now KK? Shesty giving up goals to the 2 worst players in the NHL last year is not a good look.

.... What?

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Wish we knew. I mean why couldn't the Rangers take a few 10 second clips of some of the players the last few days? any reason for the secrecy? It's definitely not a league thing. Even saw some clips of the Flyers scrimmage. Someone mentioned the Knights posted their scrimmage.

But but...we got to see them skipping!

 

[Edge]

First JJ, now KK? Shesty giving up goals to the 2 worst players in the NHL last year is not a good look.

That is hysterical and I’m surprised it isn’t a thing on Twitter. All we need is the photo of him smiling with it.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

Hearing about camp and seeing these fleeting clips of action is killing me. Such a tease!

6 days 23 hours

 

[SA16]

That sounds a little on the high end, but not too far off. I didn't adjust for per 82, but a quick glance at point totals (not per 82) for the last the last decade of top 3 picks:

2019: Hughes 21, Kakko 23, Dach 23

2018: Dahlin 44, Svecnikov 37, Kotkaniemi 34

2017: Hischier 52, Patrick 30, Heiskanen 0

2016: Matthews 69, Laine 64, Dubois 0

2015: McDavid 48, Eichel 56, Strome 0

2014: Ekblad 39, Reinhart 1, Draisatl 9

2013: MacKinnon 63, Barkov 24, Drouin 0

2012: Yakupov 31, Murray 0, Galchenyuk 27

2011: Nugent-Hopkins 52, Landeskog 52, Huberdeau 0

2010: Hall 42, Seguin 22, Gubranson 0

So the unadjusted average point totals for the top pick was 46, the average for the second pick was 31, and the third pick was about 9 points.

Significant drop from 1 to 2 and especially from 2 to 3, and a wide spectrum of totals.

The first pick had a spread of 21 to 69, the second pick had a spread from 0 to 64, and the third had a spread from 0 to 34.

So the non-adjusted point totals for the first two picks is about 37.5 (I would imagine adjustments drive it closer to the high 40s/low 50s), and that drops to about 29 if we add the third pick into the mix (so guessing high 30s/low 40s if we adjust).

Beyond the spread, we do see a noticeable drop year over year from a peak back in 2016. We also see that a higher start doesn't necessarily equate with follow-up success in the D+2 and D+3 seasons.

In Kakko's case the low end is not playing in the NHL at all as an 18 year old, all the way to posting 64 ponts.

The guy with the highest totals is currently on the trade block 5 years after being drafted.

The guy Kakko draws the most comparisons to had similar production, but didn't really take off until third season, or really enter into the conversation as being a top player until his fifth season.

The oldest guy on the list saw a huge jump from 22 to 67.

So the pathways forward are all over the place.

I wasn't speculating. I've run the numbers before and just did it again. The mean for forwards drafted 1 or 2 overall since 2010 in their rookie year is 52 points per 82 games. The median is 53. This is excluding Sam Reinhart because he was not a full time NHL player.

 

[Irishguy42]

First JJ, now KK? Shesty giving up goals to the 2 worst players in the NHL last year is not a good look.

All we need is someone with the initials LL to score and we'll have an alphabet hatty...

 

[Ola]

Are you concerned at all that the fancy stats people say Kakko had one of the worst fancy stats season ever for a top pick? Or at least that's what I heard. That's what's bothering me about him. Supposedly Svechnikov's underlying numbers were good.

Those reports are nonsense. Team matter more than individual with these stats — in absolute terms (not saying that they are worthless, but ranking players league wide from top to bottom is irrelevant). I.e. if established NHL player X changes teams you will get a better tell even on his individual “adjusted” fancy stats by looking at the team that acquired him than if you look at the player’s history (supposed ability or whatever).

In addition, it’s very safe to assume that the same is the case in relation to specific roles on a team. I.e. we want to guess at what fancy adjusted stats a player in a specific role on our team will have, it would surely be better to base our guess on how the previous guy in that role performed compared to looking at the actual player.

In short, it’s an indisputable fact that the X factor (i.e. what we can’t measure), like chemistry, tradition, tactics, usage, everything developed over years, have such a big influence on what happens on the ice that we cannot look at a player and say ‘look, this guy ranks 258 out of 423 players in the NHL’ and draw much conclusions from that. Stand alone it’s irrelevant if a player is 50 out of 423, 150 out of 423 or even 423rd out if 423. Trouba is a perfect example, he was a fancy stat darlin in Winnipeg and over night became a fancy stat nightmare.

 

[Edge]

I wasn't speculating. I've run the numbers before and just did it again. The mean for forwards drafted 1 or 2 overall since 2010 in their rookie year is 52 points per 82 games. The median is 53. This is excluding Sam Reinhart because he was not a full time NHL player.

So like I agreed high 40s/low 50s, but a little less than 55.

I think Reinhart should count. Though I also think some guys not being full time NHLers also does highlight something we all need to be mindful of.

 

[SA16]

But I think you have to include the kids who weren’t NHLers as a zero. That’s part of the question.

No. That makes no sense at all mathematically. We're comparing players who were in the NHL. You don't just add in zeros. The players who weren't were deemed not ready/not good enough for whatever reason at that point in time. And including defense when you're looking at forwards is illogical as even at their peak they are not expected to score anywhere near as much.

 

[Edge]

No. That makes no sense at all mathematically. We're comparing players who were in the NHL. You don't just add in zeros. The players who weren't were deemed not ready/not good enough for whatever reason at that point in time. And including defense when you're looking at forwards is illogical as even at their peak they are not expected to score anywhere near as much.

Okay fine. We will exclude the guys who weren’t good enough to even play. It’s your chart.

 

[SA16]

Okay fine. We will exclude the guys who weren’t good enough to even play. It’s your chart.

Even so it makes almost no difference. Reinhart is the only who did not not. It would drop the mean from 52 to 49 if you include him. I was never looking at third overall picks when I did this as much fewer third overall picks make the NHL immediately than 1sts or 2nds which are near 100%.

 

[Edge]

Even so it makes almost no difference. Reinhart is the only who did not not. It would drop the mean from 52 to 49 if you include him. I was never looking at third overall picks when I did this as much fewer third overall picks make the NHL immediately than 1sts or 2nds which are near 100%.

I don’t even know what you’re arguing about. I literally said that your original comment of 55 seemed a little high, but not by too much. I guessed high 40s or lower 50s. You just said 52 and 49. Like we’re right there.

 

[will1066]

Wish we knew. I mean why couldn't the Rangers take a few 10 second clips of some of the players the last few days? any reason for the secrecy? It's definitely not a league thing. Even saw some clips of the Flyers scrimmage. Someone mentioned the Knights posted their scrimmage.

Red Wings posted clips of their intra squad games

 

[bl02]

Red Wings posted clips of their intra squad games

Damn I missed Staal?!

 

[Kovalev27]

Getting the feeling that Mika will at least miss the first week of camp. I guess at least its a good thing he already has familiarity with his linemates.

I feel like he’s got COVID honestly. Just a feeling.