Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[supermann_98]

This.

We would get much more for Robertson as an RFA coming off a 25 goal season. I believe we have to think about all of our players as assets to a sustained run of contending over the next four years.

When making the final selections for our roster over the next week or so, we will consider:

PLAYERS WE DON'T WANT TO LOSE ON WAIVERS:

Holmberg
Robertson

PLAYERS WE DON'T WANT TO LOSE ON WAIVERS AND SHOULD TRADE FOR SOMETHING, EVEN IF ONLY A MINIMAL RETURN:

Kampf
Jarnkrok
Timmons
Murray

PLAYERS WE CAN WAIVE WITHOUT TOO MUCH DAMAGE EVEN IF WE LOSE THEM:

Reaves
Timmons
Murray

I realize that Timmons and Murray are in both, they are bubble here and we could lose them for nothing without too much regret

PLAYERS ON IR TO START RHE SEASON

Dewar
Hakanpaa
Jarnkrok (possibly)

PLAYERS WE CAN SEND DOWN

Minten
Grebenkin
Cowan (obviously not to the Marlies)

I could see an opening lineup like this.

Knies Matthews Domi
Robertson Nylander Marner
Pacioretty Tavares McMann
Lorentz Holmberg Cowan
Reaves

Dewar (IR)

Reilly Tanev
OEL Liljegren
McCabe Benoit
Timmons

Hakanpaa (IR)

Woll
Stolarz
Murray

We trade Jarnkrok and Kampf, demote Minten and Grebenkin. We could keep Jarnkrok and waive Reaves also. We could also flip Cowan and McMann.

Once the season starts and injuries hit we can shuffle as necessary. It's a solid lineup to start the season and we don't lose any assets of value. We could even recoup a few picks and get some cap space to accrue.

Post of the year right here, I agree 100% with literally everything in this post, including your line combinations up front and on D.

That line of Nylander at C with Marner and Robertson on his wings could be absolutely ridiculous if it clicks

 

[Fogelhund]

This.

We would get much more for Robertson as an RFA coming off a 25 goal season. I believe we have to think about all of our players as assets to a sustained run of contending over the next four years.

When making the final selections for our roster over the next week or so, we will consider:

PLAYERS WE DON'T WANT TO LOSE ON WAIVERS:

Holmberg
Robertson

PLAYERS WE DON'T WANT TO LOSE ON WAIVERS AND SHOULD TRADE FOR SOMETHING, EVEN IF ONLY A MINIMAL RETURN:

Kampf
Jarnkrok
Timmons
Murray

PLAYERS WE CAN WAIVE WITHOUT TOO MUCH DAMAGE EVEN IF WE LOSE THEM:

Reaves
Timmons
Murray

I realize that Timmons and Murray are in both, they are bubble here and we could lose them for nothing without too much regret

PLAYERS ON IR TO START RHE SEASON

Dewar
Hakanpaa
Jarnkrok (possibly)

PLAYERS WE CAN SEND DOWN

Minten
Grebenkin
Cowan (obviously not to the Marlies)

I could see an opening lineup like this.

Knies Matthews Domi
Robertson Nylander Marner
Pacioretty Tavares McMann
Lorentz Holmberg Cowan
Reaves

Dewar (IR)

Reilly Tanev
OEL Liljegren
McCabe Benoit
Timmons

Hakanpaa (IR)

Woll
Stolarz
Murray

We trade Jarnkrok and Kampf, demote Minten and Grebenkin. We could keep Jarnkrok and waive Reaves also. We could also flip Cowan and McMann.

Once the season starts and injuries hit we can shuffle as necessary. It's a solid lineup to start the season and we don't lose any assets of value. We could even recoup a few picks and get some cap space to accrue.

Note... it's Timmin's... not Timmons.

Cowan isn't ready for the NHL.... I think he goes back right away, and you might see Jarnkrok in that spot. Kampf I can see being moved, I think Holmberg has probably shown enough, and once Dewar is back, he can play C as well. Maybe Jarnkrok is moved once Dewar is off LTIR, depending on how the other guys play continues into the season.

Kampf I don't think will be hard to move. C's are always needed.

 

[Jmo89]

This.

We would get much more for Robertson as an RFA coming off a 25 goal season. I believe we have to think about all of our players as assets to a sustained run of contending over the next four years.

When making the final selections for our roster over the next week or so, we will consider:

PLAYERS WE DON'T WANT TO LOSE ON WAIVERS:

Holmberg
Robertson

PLAYERS WE DON'T WANT TO LOSE ON WAIVERS AND SHOULD TRADE FOR SOMETHING, EVEN IF ONLY A MINIMAL RETURN:

Kampf
Jarnkrok
Timmons
Murray

PLAYERS WE CAN WAIVE WITHOUT TOO MUCH DAMAGE EVEN IF WE LOSE THEM:

Reaves
Timmons
Murray

I realize that Timmons and Murray are in both, they are bubble here and we could lose them for nothing without too much regret

PLAYERS ON IR TO START RHE SEASON

Dewar
Hakanpaa
Jarnkrok (possibly)

PLAYERS WE CAN SEND DOWN

Minten
Grebenkin
Cowan (obviously not to the Marlies)

I could see an opening lineup like this.

Knies Matthews Domi
Robertson Nylander Marner
Pacioretty Tavares McMann
Lorentz Holmberg Cowan
Reaves

Dewar (IR)

Reilly Tanev
OEL Liljegren
McCabe Benoit
Timmons

Hakanpaa (IR)

Woll
Stolarz
Murray

We trade Jarnkrok and Kampf, demote Minten and Grebenkin. We could keep Jarnkrok and waive Reaves also. We could also flip Cowan and McMann.

Once the season starts and injuries hit we can shuffle as necessary. It's a solid lineup to start the season and we don't lose any assets of value. We could even recoup a few picks and get some cap space to accrue.

I'm hoping we see Marner and Nylander tried together. Have they ever played much together without Matthews?

So if they trade Kampf and Jarnkrok they have enough cap for an extra forward (Reaves) and dman (Timmins)?

The lineup you have posted looks great.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1840738211481497931

Knies will and should be prioritized if he’s going to be as good and integral as we all hope he’ll be. Leafs have been trying to fill the Hyman shaped hole since he left after 2021 (coincidentally the same year Knies was drafted). Locking down a homegrown physical left winger would be correcting a mistake made all those years ago.

 

[Gallagbi]

Too many people have a skewed view of what 3rd liners are supposed to produce.

Colorado won the Cup with TJ Compher scoring 27 even strength points in 71 games as their 3rd line C. Vegan had Eichel, Karlsson, and Stephenson, but they often played wing with each other, so Nicolas Roy was their equivalent 3rd C and they won with him scoring 23 even strength points, Florida just won with Anton Lundell scoring 29 even strength points.



Teams seems to win Cups with 25-30 even strength point 3Cs.

Looks more like 30+ esp and Kampf was at 19 last year. I would definitely say that Karlsson was VGK's 3C too, with Roy spotting onto the third line moreso than the top 3 playing together. Lundell and Compher were both on a 30pt ESP pace and that seems to be the low-end for cup winning 3C. Asking Kampf to double his ESP seems like a big ask to me

 

[Rare Jewel]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1840738211481497931

Knies will and should be prioritized if he’s going to be as good and integral as we all hope he’ll be. Leafs have been trying to fill the Hyman shaped hole since he left after 2021 (coincidentally the same year Knies was drafted). Locking down a homegrown physical left winger would be correcting a mistake made all those years ago.

I like Knies as a player, but I'm slightly skeptical of his offensive upside. However, it doesn't make much sense to have him play in the top 6 unsigned, particularly with Matthews, and then let him take the team to the cleaners next summer.

Also, and this will likely irk a few, but if they are ever going to make a meaningful addition to the defense that isn't just going for whatever UFA D is available, I feel it may come at the expense of Knies.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1840818379025772760

 

[Menzinger]

I like Knies as a player, but I'm slightly skeptical of his offensive upside. However, it doesn't make much sense to have him play in the top 6 unsigned, particularly with Matthews, and then let him take the team to the cleaners next summer.

Also, and this will likely irk a few, but if they are ever going to make a meaningful addition to the defense that isn't just going for whatever UFA D is available, I feel it may come at the expense of Knies.

Imo trading Knies would be an incredible mistake by management if that happens.

He's got a natural goal scoring ability which will come out more at the pro level with time. He had great offensive instincts in college, particularly when it came to goal scoring.

I'd easily lock him up 6-8 years this summer

 

[Dreakmur]

Looks more like 30+ esp and Kampf was at 19 last year. I would definitely say that Karlsson was VGK's 3C too, with Roy spotting onto the third line moreso than the top 3 playing together. Lundell and Compher were both on a 30pt ESP pace and that seems to be the low-end for cup winning 3C. Asking Kampf to double his ESP seems like a big ask to me

So cup-winning centres are on on pace for 30 points? Kampf being in the low 20s seems to be exactly what I said it was… below average, but not by a lot.

Karlsson played like 18 minutes a night. That’s almost first line ice time. As I explained already, they had centres that plays a lot of time on wing with each other. The points they scored weren’t all scored in the capacity of 3c. Roy playing 15 minutes per night, all in the capacity of a 3c is a lot closer to a fair comparison.

As I said before, people seem to think 3Cs should be scoring 50+ points when the fact is most 2Cs don’t even do that…

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Mirtle and The Athletic project Pacioretty at $1.1 million. That can't be a million even or even less?

 

[Menzinger]

So cup-winning centres are on on pace for 30 points? Kampf being in the low 20s seems to be exactly what I said it was… below average, but not by a lot.

Karlsson played like 18 minutes a night. That’s almost first line ice time. As I explained already, they had centres that plays a lot of time on wing with each other. The points they scored weren’t all scored in the capacity of 3c. Roy playing 15 minutes per night, all in the capacity of a 3c is a lot closer to a fair comparison.

As I said before, people seem to think 3Cs should be scoring 50+ points when the fact is most 2Cs don’t even do that…

Kampfs' sh% was also 3% higher than his career average last year. He paced for under 20 points over 82 games last year, yes there's icetime considerations but I think it's being very, VERY generous to Kampf to put that time of offense in line with other 3Cs

I don't mind Kampf, but he's a unicorn of a player. And I don't really see a fit for him if the team isn't going to build a shutdown line in the bottom six,.and they don't have the other personnel for that at the moment

 

[Rare Jewel]

Imo trading Knies would be an incredible mistake by management if that happens.

He's got a natural goal scoring ability which will come out more at the pro level with time. He had great offensive instincts in college, particularly when it came to goal scoring.

I'd easily lock him up 6-8 years this summer

How do you know it's a mistake if it hasn't happened?

Obviously, you would need something quite nice coming back, but it seems that until the defence gets at least one more allstar level horse back there, and you can say this in a historical context as well, which part of the reason this club is working on 60-year championship drought, this team will always be prone to disappointment.

And looking at the piece to improve, it isn't a long list.

 

[Menzinger]

How do you know it's a mistake if it hasn't happened?

Obviously, you would need something quite nice coming back, but it seems that until the defence gets at least one more allstar level horse back there, and you can say this in a historical context as well, which part of the reason this club is working on 60-year championship drought, this team will always be prone to disappointment.

And looking at the piece to improve, it isn't a long list.

While.true no one can't predict the future, we've also seen this song and dance plenty of times with the Leafs in the past and they've ended up worse for it.

I've been very high on Knies since he committed to the Gophers. For me he's as close to untouchable as anyone in the roster

 

[Dreakmur]

Kampfs' sh% was also 3% higher than his career average last year. He paced for under 20 points over 82 games last year, yes there's icetime considerations but I think it's being very, VERY generous to Kampf to put that time of offense in line with other 3Cs

I don't mind Kampf, but he's a unicorn of a player. And I don't really see a fit for him if the team isn't going to build a shutdown line in the bottom six,.and they don't have the other personnel for that at the moment

When he was with 3rd line wingers, he scored around 25 es points. Last year, he was in a 4th line role, where 19 points is actually higher than average.

I don’t disagree that the fit seems weird, but I’m not sure he’s the problem that you address first.

 

[Rare Jewel]

While.true no one can't predict the future, we've also seen this song and dance plenty of times with the Leafs in the past and they've ended up worse for it.

I've been very high on Knies since he committed to the Gophers. For me he's as close to untouchable as anyone in the roster

Well, that's why they may even have to add in a trade.

But two things stand out,
1. Positional priority: Centers and defence ahead of wingers (Leafs are shakey on both right now)
2. Basically all championship teams have had at least one Dman most would regard as better than Rielly, as well as likely having an overall better 6-8 D

Now, how are you going to tempt a team to move those guys? Well, it will hurt, but that's how the best deals are.

 

[Menzinger]

Well, that's why they may even have to add in a trade.

But two things stand out,
1. Positional priority: Centers and defence ahead of wingers (Leafs are shakey on both right now)
2. Basically all championship teams have had at least one Dman most would regard as better than Rielly, as well as likely having an overall better 6-8 D

Now, how are you going to tempt a team to move those guys? Well, it will hurt, but that's how the best deals are.

Getting that player also doesn't have to involve Knies. Cowan, Danford, or even 22 million worth of JT/Marner Money in free agency are other pathways.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Getting that player also doesn't have to involve Knies. Cowan, Danford, or even 22 million worth of JT/Marner Money in free agency are other pathways.

But it likely will.

Teams don't give them away; you usually have to pick them at the top 5-10-and even then, you've got to get a bit lucky.

 

[thusk]

Kampf and Jarnkrok can’t play on the fourth line because
Berube wants to have a hit everything in sight physical line

Lorentz reaves dewar can be that type of line
Lorentz looked good killing penalties so that is an option.

Jarnkrok and kampf are now redundant and we can use that 4.5 to get another top forward or good dman

Berube wants us to have a physical identity. Not so much fighting just getting involved

Domi knies matthews Tavares mcmann Lorentz reaves
Benoit McCabe OEL Tanev dewar patches all can be physical to a degree

Thats what people dont understand... being physical doesn't mean hit everything


When stl won the cup and was 24 th in hit in regular season and 10/16 in playoff.

Being physical mean win battle, working hard and compete. not hitting everything

 

[Menzinger]

But it likely will.

Teams don't give them away; you usually have to pick them at the top 5-10-and even then, you've got to get a bit lucky.

I'd say teams don't really trade them at all (the type you're talking about).

The closest you come are guys like Muzzin, Trouba, ect.

 

[Evilhomer]

I'd say teams don't really trade them at all (the type you're talking about).

The closest you come are guys like Muzzin, Trouba, ect.

Treliving hasn't made a single trade of consequence since he was hired, and I doubt we will see one anytime soon.

 

[Dreakmur]

Treliving hasn't made a single trade of consequence since he was hired, and I doubt we will see one anytime soon.

He hasn't had very much to work with. We either have players you don't want to trade or players who don't have much value.

Robertson and Liljegren are the big trade pieces....

 

[SprDaVE]

Treliving hasn't made a single trade of consequence since he was hired, and I doubt we will see one anytime soon.

It is pretty wild he's done really nothing. Barely even a prospect swap trade or anything. Usually when a GM is changed after the team struggling in one way or another, the core is changed or a big part of the team is changed.... that hasn't really happened.

 

[LeafsFan89]

It is pretty wild he's done really nothing. Barely even a prospect swap trade or anything. Usually when a GM is changed after the team struggling in one way or another, the core is changed or a big part of the team is changed.... that hasn't really happened.

PTSD from the Calgary trade? Or Dubas was on to something with Shanahan's micro management when it comes to this core?

 

[freshwind]

PTSD from the Calgary trade? Or Dubas was on to something with Shanahan's micro management when it comes to this core?

sadly I would guess 30% former, 70% latter ..... and that does not bode well for the marner/tavares situation