Trades & Free Agency Thread: Off-season Edition

[Leafs1991]

He's a fine 2nd line C still, but you generally do not want to pay your 2nd line centreman 11m.

Bring his cap hit down to 5m next season and suddenly people aren't up in arms about his 65 points last season and 80 the year before that.

Agreed, if he is paid less, I wouldn't have as much issue. I think even the 65 points was a bit much given the quality of players he plays with. The guys he played with carried him and if you watch any game it is painfully obvious he can't handle 2nd line minutes anymore. He is currently a 3rd line center playing 2nd line as that is the best they got still.

I'll just say bad take... anyway, cheers.

It isn't, watch him play. He was carried by his linemates. Points don't tell the whole story.

 

[MarMarSab3]

Hilarious take. This fanbase when it turns on someone loses all objectivity.

Meanwhile, most of the same posters who have turned on Tavares, pine for Kadri... the same age, less production the last two years.... it's hilarious. We get rid of Tavares, we'd be looking for someone near as good, despite his decline.

I want no part of Kadri ftr

Tavares if his decline continues at the rate it did last year will end up being at best a 3C or 2LW by mid season.

 

[Mugzy97]

Washington and Carolina are both in the clear now with this Kuznetsov termination. If Oshie doesn’t come back Washington has a good chunk of money to play with. They were always a good match for Marner. They have the young pieces (Leonard, Iorio, McMichael) and the cap filler (Protas, TVR) and the picks. Most importantly they have the need - their best RW is Wilson. They could use him to set up Ovechkin.

Leonard, McMichael, TVR would be a very strong base for a Marner deal.

I doubt Washington moves Leonard for anybody with 1 year to UFA

 

[Stephen]

JT's 11 gets absorbed by raises and his replacement. There won't be anything left to address anything really.

But the cap also goes up.

 

[Joseph Nathan]

My original suggestion of Necas was as the second part of a deal that included Nikishin. He is the centre piece and Necas rounds out the return. I had read that Necas was being groomed to be more of a C and most sites list him as one....though yes, terrible in the dot....so far.

My ideal would be

Marner @ 25% retained (one year, to make it work)

For

Jarvis and Nikishin.

We get a 2C and a top pairing Dman for the next eight years and probably save $3M to $4M per year for the next few years. That's a win, so much so maybe we have to add a bit.

I would "settle" for Necas in for Jarvis, but maybe a little add from Carolina. Necas can stay at wing if Willy can move to C.

Again, Nikishin is the big add. Having our top prospect being a dman without giving up a draft pick, Cowan, Minten, Grebyonkin, Niemela, Danford, Hildeby, or Akhtyamov is some nice work.

Carolina is the last team that would trade good cheap player & prospect ! They aren’t trading for marner nor paying Marner

I know Carolina doesn't do deals like the one Marner would command. Things change though. New GM there and a track record of playoff underperforming that rivals the Leafs.

They still have the same owner, your forgetting that. Gms don’t make move without owner approval and the GM no matter who it’s goes by what the owner wants in Carolina

 

[conFABulator]

Carolina is the last team that would trade good cheap player & prospect ! They aren’t trading for marner nor paying Marner

I hear that. A new broom sweeps clean though. They have new management and perhaps maybe take a different approach.

Also, neither Jarvis or Necas are cheap anymore as both are looking for $7M to $8M. Nikishin is the big prize and will be the hardest part to get included.

Also, and this is not just Carolina related, I think eight year deal signed right now have the potential to age very well. A 5% increase every year for five years takes the cap to over $112M. I think some teams may get ahead of that if they can afford to do it in near term because it will pay dividends long term. Nylander could be a bargain, Matthews is UFA in five years...he know what he is doing.

 

[conFABulator]

Carolina is the last team that would trade good cheap player & prospect ! They aren’t trading for marner nor paying Marner


They still have the same owner, your forgetting that. Gms don’t make move without owner approval and the GM no matter who it’s goes by what the owner wants in Carolina

I am not forgetting that. Even the GM is from within the organization. I am saying things change, especially if you need to get different results

 

[PromisedLand]

btw anybody have any clue wtf are the Ducks even doing? so much cap space wtf are they gonna do with it?

 

[uncleben]

btw anybody have any clue wtf are the Ducks even doing? so much cap space wtf are they gonna do with it?

Wait for their kids to grow up and demand raises, presumably

They're a very young team. Talented, but no need to spend money right now. Best to let the kids develop

 

[TMLAM34]

Vatrano would be a good target to replace Bertuzzi on the left side of Matthews and Domi. Someone who can put the puck in the net as well.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

But the cap also goes up.

It's not going to work.

Cap will go up to 92M next season.

Let's assume they keep Marner.

Woll = 3.66M
Knies = 3-4M
Marner's Raise = 1.5M
McCabe = 1M

Roughly 9-10M gone.

You're left with 5-6M to replace or re-sign Tavares.


Core next season if Tavares is removed

Matthews = 13.5M
Nylander = 11.5M
Marner = 12.5M (roughly in line with his current cap %)
Rielly = 7.5M

That's 48.9% of the cap gone right there.

Basically they will be wrecked for the next 2-3 seasons and then Matthews' extension will be up causing things to reset again. Rielly will also have aged out with the rest entering their 30s.

 

[Dreakmur]

But the cap also goes up.

As does the cost of the internal raises and the price of his replacement…

 

[Stephen]

It's not going to work.

Cap will go up to 92M next season.

Let's assume they keep Marner.

Woll = 3.66M
Knies = 3-4M
Marner's Raise = 1.5M
McCabe = 1M

Roughly 9-10M gone.

You're left with 5-6M to replace or re-sign Tavares.


Core next season if Tavares is removed

Matthews = 13.5M
Nylander = 11.5M
Marner = 12.5M (roughly in line with his current cap %)
Rielly = 7.5M

That's 48.9% of the cap gone right there.

Basically they will be wrecked for the next 2-3 seasons and then Matthews' extension will be up causing things to reset again. Rielly will also have aged out with the rest entering their 30s.

Well, I am basically in favour of getting any combination of Tavares, Marner, Rielly so I’m open to more radical ideas, get rid of a handful of guys so we can carve out more cap to renovate more extensively.

Also McCabe’s contract is $4 million with retention from Chicago. So if he’s going to cost $5 million to re-sign that’s technically a $3 million raise.

 

[Dreakmur]

It's not going to work.

Cap will go up to 92M next season.

Let's assume they keep Marner.

Woll = 3.66M
Knies = 3-4M
Marner's Raise = 1.5M
McCabe = 1M

Roughly 9-10M gone.

You're left with 5-6M to replace or re-sign Tavares.


Core next season if Tavares is removed

Matthews = 13.5M
Nylander = 11.5M
Marner = 12.5M (roughly in line with his current cap %)
Rielly = 7.5M

That's 48.9% of the cap gone right there.

Basically they will be wrecked for the next 2-3 seasons and then Matthews' extension will be up causing things to reset again. Rielly will also have aged out with the rest entering their 30s.

That’s the issue, and you were even generous with your internal raise. Those are all pretty low.

Knies is a wildcard. If he proves to be a real top-6 forward, he’ll want and deserve 5+ million. If he’s not, we’ll need to bring somebody else that will cost that much.

Don’t forget that McCabe is half retained. A 1 million dollar raise on our cap is actually a 1 million dollar pay cut for him. Just like Holl, he’s being forced into a top-4 role due to poor depth, and he’s going to want to be paid. He’ll likely want, and get, 5+ million, and I hope it’s not here….

 

[IrishInOntario]

It's not going to work.

Cap will go up to 92M next season.

Let's assume they keep Marner.

Woll = 3.66M
Knies = 3-4M
Marner's Raise = 1.5M
McCabe = 1M

Roughly 9-10M gone.

You're left with 5-6M to replace or re-sign Tavares.


Core next season if Tavares is removed

Matthews = 13.5M
Nylander = 11.5M
Marner = 12.5M (roughly in line with his current cap %)
Rielly = 7.5M

That's 48.9% of the cap gone right there.

Basically they will be wrecked for the next 2-3 seasons and then Matthews' extension will be up causing things to reset again. Rielly will also have aged out with the rest entering their 30s.

I've argued both sides of this point, but I'll re-attack with the opposite view.

Assuming a $92 million cap in 2025-2026...

Sign Marner 8 x $12.25 million
Sign Tavares 4 x 6.0 million
Sign Knies 3 x 3.5 million
Sign McCabe 4 x 4.75 million
Trade David Kampf (last year of contract)

Domi-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Addition-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Cowan
Dewar-Minten or Quillan-Grebyonkin

Rielly-Tanev
OEL-McCabe
Benoit-Liljegren

Woll
Stolarz

Total Cap Hit: $85.6 million

That leaves you with $6.4 million to add a 2C that slides Tavares down the lineup. If you can trade for one retained, or find one at a cost effective price in the $4.0-$4.5, you can either use the difference to upgrade the roster elsewhere, or simply carry 21-22 players. You wouldn't be creating a lot of roster flexibility (unless you traded a guy like Liljegren as well) but you do free up enough money to add a quality player at center and it gives you a chance to get your young talent into the lineup.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

Ideal (fantasy) offseason:

Mitch Marner + Conor Timmins
For
Shea Theodore + William Karlsson / Ivan Barbashev (Vegas’ choice)

Nick Robertson + Timothy Liljegren
For
Frank Vatrano

Vatrano-Matthews-Domi
Knies-Karlsson-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Jarnkrok (I’d try Cowan here to start)

Rielly-Tanev
Theodore-McCabe
OEL-Benoit

 

[rumman]

But the cap also goes up.

With what’s going on in the world today I wouldn’t be relying on the cap going up anytime soon……….

 

[Dreakmur]

I've argued both sides of this point, but I'll re-attack with the opposite view.

Assuming a $92 million cap in 2025-2026...

Sign Marner 8 x $12.25 million
Sign Tavares 4 x 6.0 million
Sign Knies 3 x 3.5 million
Sign McCabe 4 x 4.75 million
Trade David Kampf (last year of contract)

Domi-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Addition-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Cowan
Dewar-Minten or Quillan-Grebyonkin

Rielly-Tanev
OEL-McCabe
Benoit-Liljegren

Woll
Stolarz

Total Cap Hit: $85.6 million

That leaves you with $6.4 million to add a 2C that slides Tavares down the lineup. If you can trade for one retained, or find one at a cost effective price in the $4.0-$4.5, you can either use the difference to upgrade the roster elsewhere, or simply carry 21-22 players. You wouldn't be creating a lot of roster flexibility (unless you traded a guy like Liljegren as well) but you do free up enough money to add a quality player at center and it gives you a chance to get your young talent into the lineup.

Good UFA #2C are going to push like 7-8 million next summer….

 

[Warden of the North]

JT's 11 gets absorbed by raises and his replacement. There won't be anything left to address anything really.

Every team faces this. We're hardly alone here. It's literally how sports works. We'd be in bigger trouble if none of our RFAs earned raises in that time. You're not factoring in their growth that will compensate for their increased $$$. Like if Knies puts up 30 goals on Matthews wing three years from now will any of be upset he's making a bit more money?

 

[Dreakmur]

Every team faces this. We're hardly alone here. It's literally how sports works. We'd be in bigger trouble if none of our RFAs earned raises in that time. You're not factoring in their growth that will compensate for their increased $$$.

Yes, but most handle it much better than we have.

Like if Knies puts up 30 goals on Matthews wing three years from now will any of be upset he's making a bit more money?

If he scores 30 goals this year, he won’t be earning just a little more.

 

[SprDaVE]

@Fogelhund

https://x.com/i/web/status/1813918917829521901

 

[dubplatepressure]

@Fogelhund

https://x.com/i/web/status/1813918917829521901

Wonder what happened with this guy. Seemed like a solid prospect / player.

 

[Fogelhund]

You're right about Necas, he's a speedy winger who doesn't play defense and is terrible on the dot. Definitely not a C, let alone a 2C. Kind of the last thing we need is a Necas.

But the bolded part is just so weird to me. Usually fans on a message board will propose trades that we win. In this case it's a trade proposal where we clearly lose the trade by your own admission, but there's a chance that in the long run it may work out if we sign the right player with the $4m delta in their cap hits.

Yes, we probably lose that trade... but then, if we/or Marner are moving on, and that's the best deal on the table... I'm ok with it. Is it great, no.. but then it does look like Jarvis can be a C in this league, and we need a 2C down the road pretty badly, and there aren't a lot of options. Frankly, I'd prefer to deal with Seattle for Wright/Bjorkstand.... but, if we have to make a deal, getting Jarvis isn't terrible.

 

[seanlinden]

I've argued both sides of this point, but I'll re-attack with the opposite view.

Assuming a $92 million cap in 2025-2026...

Sign Marner 8 x $12.25 million
Sign Tavares 4 x 6.0 million
Sign Knies 3 x 3.5 million
Sign McCabe 4 x 4.75 million
Trade David Kampf (last year of contract)

Domi-Matthews-Marner
Knies-Addition-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Cowan
Dewar-Minten or Quillan-Grebyonkin

Rielly-Tanev
OEL-McCabe
Benoit-Liljegren

Woll
Stolarz

Total Cap Hit: $85.6 million

That leaves you with $6.4 million to add a 2C that slides Tavares down the lineup. If you can trade for one retained, or find one at a cost effective price in the $4.0-$4.5, you can either use the difference to upgrade the roster elsewhere, or simply carry 21-22 players. You wouldn't be creating a lot of roster flexibility (unless you traded a guy like Liljegren as well) but you do free up enough money to add a quality player at center and it gives you a chance to get your young talent into the lineup.

I think the Leafs need to drop the approach of "can we fit Mitch Marner in and still have a decent team", in favour of, is Mitch Marner prepared to play in Toronto for a comparable amount of money to his peers around the league, when signing with good teams.

To do that, you have to ask yourself, who are his comparables around the league? what are they signing for? and are they going for max dollar (on likely bad teams)? or are they taking something that would be perceived as a discount.

The requirement should be for players to do as good, or better for the Leafs, than most other teams... and if a player's not willing to do that, then they need to be identified as a player you can't win with.

I look at a guy like Sebastien Aho, who signed for $9.75m on a first year cap-hit of $88m. 11.08% of the cap. Marner produces more, Aho scores more and is a centre. I think you could reasonably argue that they should be the same.

Another guy to look at is Barzal.... who signed for $9.15m on a first-year cap hit of $83.5m. 10.96% of the cap. Very, very similar players, with Barzal building an RFA year into the contract, so presumably his % should be a little lower than Marner's.

So next year we're looking at a $92m cap supposedly.

11% of that is $10.12m.
11.25% of that is $10.35m.

Call me crazy, but Mitch Marner's number should probably be $10.25m on an 8-year deal.

Should he be worth "more" on a shorter term deal given his current age? possibly, but the Leafs are in win-now mode...so they shouldn't be paying a premium to reduce the years.

 

[Fogelhund]

@Fogelhund

https://x.com/i/web/status/1813918917829521901

Strange case of how far he's fallen. I'm not sure if there are underlying issues with the guy, as to why nobody wants to take a chance on him. At worst, he's a decent AHL player, at best he might find a spark to return to where he was with the right guidance. Also strange to me, the KHL doesn't seem like the type of hockey that plays to his strengths.