GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[Fogelhund]

Lol I'd say ROR wouldn't want him back. He left because of the loser core

Strange... I guess you'd know more than RoR... Maybe RoR has been lying in his interviews about Marner...

 

[Evilhomer]

Nashville paid a stupid amount of money to clear the cancers outta their locker room in Duchene and RyJo. Why would they wanna turn around and burn both assets and money on Marner?

More importantly, isn't it possible that they just cleared cap space because they are about to absorb $5.5 million of dead cap space on Duchene's buyout?

 

[Fogelhund]

More importantly, isn't it possible that they just cleared cap space because they are about to absorb $5.5 million of dead cap space on Duchene's buyout?

They still have $26 million in cap space, even taking that into account.

 

[Soundgarden]

I've been hearing Askarov hype for years now, but whenever I've seen him play - like in WJC, he's been garbage. And Nashville doesn't seem to want to give him the keys either.

Are we sure he's actually worth the hype?

He's the best goalie not currently in the NHL, just because he had bad WJCs, on bad Russian teams mind you, doesn't mean he's not worth the hype. He had a monster year in Milwaukee.

 

[Evilhomer]

They still have $26 million in cap space, even taking that into account.

With only 4 NHL defenseman under contract and only 15 roster spots filled.

 

[Soundgarden]

With only 4 NHL defenseman under contract and only 15 roster spots filled.

Stastny, Del Gaizo, Molendyk, Ufko and Wilsby are also gunning for roster spots, only Ufko is a RHD. I think the first three have legitimate shots at making the team.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Pay Marner 37.5% of his current contract (just like Duchene) and he too could be useful to a playoff team.

If this story is true, that would be Nashville's problem.

 

[Fogelhund]

With only 4 NHL defenseman under contract and only 15 roster spots filled.

They've got a ton of young kids who will likely be competing for spots this year. In addition to the ones mentioned above, Kemmel, Svechkov, L'Heureux, Afanasyev could all be competing for forward spots. They have a ton of prospects.

​

 

[sxvnert]

Path is very clearly laid out for a Marner to Nashville trade.

Marner (no retention) for Saros makes a ton of sense.

 

[Fogelhund]

Marner (no retention) for Saros makes a ton of sense.

Except Saros is on record saying he wants to stay and extend and Nashville wants him to stay. Predators 'going to work hard' this offseason on contract for Saros | NHL.com

 

[ACC1224]

Trading a talent like Marner for a Goalie will go down as one of the all time Leaf dumb moves.

 

[TheDoldrums]

usual suspects endlessly repeating themselves about what a loser Marner is...this is the Leafs. The second he gets traded he is going to win, a la Kessel or Kadri. it's so predictable.

Not saying trading him is the wrong move, I want to do it and they need to do something differently. But we are cursed, you know Marner (and Keefe) will start having unprecedented playoff success with new teams

 

[OVO16]

Marner (no retention) for Saros makes a ton of sense.

There's gotta be more coming with Saros. I can see us being interested in Sissons too. Potentially even sherwood.

But as others have said, Nashville's package isn't overly enticing for me because I would much rather target a forward or a defenseman as my main piece

Trading a talent like Marner for a Goalie will go down as one of the all time Leaf dumb moves.

I agree but I will say Saaros looks like the real deal and we haven't had a surefire goaltender in ages.

But it would suck getting him as the main piece in trade centered around Marner

 

[1specter]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1792985857470693669

LMAO. Can't believe this was actually asked, I honestly thought it was AI at first

 

[sxvnert]

There's gotta be more coming with Saros. I can see us being interested in Sissons too. Potentially even sherwood.

But as others have said, Nashville's package isn't overly enticing for me because I would much rather target a forward or a defenseman as my main piece

Top player (at full cap hit - $10,903,000) for top goalie ($5,000,000). The additional 5.903m will be a huge help. I'm fine with it.

 

[ACC1224]

There's gotta be more coming with Saros. I can see us being interested in Sissons too. Potentially even sherwood.

But as others have said, Nashville's package isn't overly enticing for me because I would much rather target a forward or a defenseman as my main piece


I agree but I will say Saaros looks like the real deal and we haven't had a surefire goaltender in ages.

But it would suck getting him as the main piece in trade centered around Marner

I'm not opposed at all to getting an elite goalie, it shouldn't cost a Marner type though.

 

[Fogelhund]

I'm not a huge fan of what Nashville would have to offer either. It doesn't look like Saros is available, which I'd be meh on anyway. Askarov, Wood, Kemmel, L'Heureux, 22nd OA.... decent prospects all of them, (but nothing of really good quality) and Askarov could end up being very good.. often first round pick goalies are.

While some are saying Askarov was amazing last year in the AHL, his Save percentage was below that of Hildeby.

Unless it's a lot of decent quantity, I'm not sure it's a great trade... I just don't see them moving much off their roster.

Ultimately we should want to get back D, or C prospects/players as the priority. I don't really see any prospect at D, or C, that I'd get excited about.

Edit... Hildeby is looking good, Akhtyamov just won VHL goalie of the year... Should we really be trading our best trading chip for another prospect goalie... even if it comes with the pedigree of Askarov? When we have far greater needs?

​

 

[JKG33]

usual suspects endlessly repeating themselves about what a loser Marner is...this is the Leafs. The second he gets traded he is going to win, a la Kessel or Kadri. it's so predictable.

Not saying trading him is the wrong move, I want to do it and they need to do something differently. But we are cursed, you know Marner (and Keefe) will start having unprecedented playoff success with new teams

As opposed to the usual suspects who think teams will want to back up the brinks truck (in assets and money) for the privledge of overpaying a playoff disappointment?

Some of these packages mentioned over the last few weeks are laughable for the team that isn't Toronto. Players thatre overpaid, with 1 yr left to UFA and a NTC don't get big returns to begin with

 

[Kurtz]

He's the best goalie not currently in the NHL, just because he had bad WJCs, on bad Russian teams mind you, doesn't mean he's not worth the hype. He had a monster year in Milwaukee.

Russian team being bad had nothing to do with it - he was letting in bad goals.

I don't know about a monster year - he wasn't close to leading the league in any statistical categories, in fact his numbers are almost identical to Hildeby's. Hunter Sheppard had a monster year. Clay Stevenson, Henrik Tikkanen, Trent Miner, Joel Blomquist all had better years and are all similar age.

So where is this "best goalie not in the NHL" talk coming from, because I've been hearing it for years, and his numbers and when I've watched him play never lived up to the hype.

 

[Fogelhund]

I've been hearing Askarov hype for years now, but whenever I've seen him play - like in WJC, he's been garbage. And Nashville doesn't seem to want to give him the keys either.

Are we sure he's actually worth the hype?

He's a goalie... so you never really know... but he's only 21, turning 22 in June, so it shouldn't be expected for him to be tearing it up in the NHL yet. Odds are usually pretty good that a 1st round pick goalie ends up very good, but then we have a lot of prospect goalie depth already, so I'm not sure it would be the right move. Plus, even if he does excel, it's not likely for another couple of years...

 

[Soundgarden]

Russian team being bad had nothing to do with it - he was letting in bad goals.

I don't know about a monster year - he wasn't close to leading the league in any statistical categories, in fact his numbers are almost identical to Hildeby's. Hunter Sheppard had a monster year. Clay Stevenson, Henrik Tikkanen, Trent Miner, Joel Blomquist all had better years and are all similar age.

So where is this "best goalie not in the NHL" talk coming from, because I've been hearing it for years, and his numbers and when I've watched him play never lived up to the hype.

Watching him he has the "it" factor that a lot of guys don't have. He's a very special player.

 

[Kurtz]

He's a goalie... so you never really know... but he's only 21, turning 22 in June, so it shouldn't be expected for him to be tearing it up in the NHL yet. Odds are usually pretty good that a 1st round pick goalie ends up very good, but then we have a lot of prospect goalie depth already, so I'm not sure it would be the right move. Plus, even if he does excel, it's not likely for another couple of years...

Do we have those odds or is this speculation?

This research says the opposite:

Based on the results here, it appears forwards are the safest bets to draft, especially in the first two rounds. But that’s not shocking because the wing is the easiest position to play in the NHL. The lead they had over defensemen in the second half of the first round was surprising to me, and I’ll definitely remember that in the future.

When it comes to goalies, don’t worry too much about the guys in the top 15; they don’t appear to be significantly riskier than the skaters in that range but there’s still a bit more risk there. But it appears you don’t get good bang for your buck taking goalies in the second half of the first round – the second and third rounds appear to be the optimal time to draft netminders.

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities By Position

After the first article about NHL Draft Pick Probabilities (link) was released, there were some asking for something similar but with different player positions being separated to see if there are any differences there. That raised my interest, so I decided to use the same data

dobberprospects.com

 

[Dreakmur]

I'm not a huge fan of what Nashville would have to offer either. It doesn't look like Saros is available, which I'd be meh on anyway. Askarov, Wood, Kemmel, L'Heureux, 22nd OA.... decent prospects all of them, (but nothing of really good quality) and Askarov could end up being very good.. often first round pick goalies are.

While some are saying Askarov was amazing last year in the AHL, his Save percentage was below that of Hildeby.

Unless it's a lot of decent quantity, I'm not sure it's a great trade... I just don't see them moving much off their roster.

Ultimately we should want to get back D, or C prospects/players as the priority. I don't really see any prospect at D, or C, that I'd get excited about.

​

I would rather Askarov ove Saros. If Saros isn't available, hopefully Askarov is.

Off the roster, I'd be interested in Colton Scissons and maybe Cole Smith.

 

[Mickey Marner]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1792985857470693669

LMAO. Can't believe this was actually asked, I honestly thought it was AI at first

Yeah, the reporter should read the rules on tampering. Clown question.

 

[supermann_98]

Nashville paid a stupid amount of money to clear the cancers outta their locker room in Duchene and RyJo. Why would they wanna turn around and burn both assets and money on Marner?

Shhh, we're hoping they don't notice or dont mind Marner's teaching his teammates how to griddy