GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

[Skullz]

Montour is exactly what we need if we can find a reasonable deal. We desperately need more ability to move the puck from the backend. I wonder what a guy like Sean Walker will cost, also an offensive RHD.

Other interesting targets would be Matt Roy, Brady Skeji, and Brett Pesce, but these are all likely too expensive for what they bring.

If we could sign Montour and resign Lybushkin, we have a solid defence. We could run something like:

Rielly - Lyub
McCabe - Montour
Benoit - Lily

Of course, adding a Roy or Pesce rather than Lybuskin is better, but also more expensive.

Also, I wonder if we are sleeping on a Tavares trade. After his July 1 bonus, he gets paid 900K. Any team that is not a cap team could easily add him in.

I would love to use the money freed up from dealing him to take a serious run at Chandler Stephenson. He is the second center that we need and brings speed, which we also sorely lack.

 

[SprDaVE]

People need to pump the brakes on Montour, dude looked like Cale Makar this time a year ago but has been far from that level since. Panthers fans aren't all that crazy about re-signing him, he's also 30 years old. He had the breakout season a year too early imo.

My biggest issue with some of these UFA targets isn't so much the AAV, it's the term they're going to command.

It's not even about his big offensive year last season. He played 23:27 TOI/G this year on one of the best teams in the league, which is first among all their D. He was basically their #1 defenseman, especially with Ekblad out for half the season. He QBs their PP incredibly well, has a booming shot and can skate. It's not even about the PP either, he played the most EV TOI/G of their entire D.

You're not going to upgrade the defensive core without giving up term, money or both. And you certainly won't find quality if you don't commit. There isn't much alternative here unless you can hit some home run trades.

 

[VanW27]

Marner also has a NMC, he’s not going to a destination that will just flip him at the deadline. If Marner waives, which I think he should, it’ll be to a choice of his destination and somewhere where an extension is almost certain.

Probably, just saying that's the only way we're getting any value for him.

Based on the idea it's somewhere he wants to go and somewhere that will sign him to an extension.. who even is that?

Aside from bad teams, who would even want a 12+ million a year winger who no shows in the playoffs? I see people posting Nashville as an option, I see the logic, but does a budget conscious team really want to pay a guy 3 to 4 million more than their best winger (Forsberg) to be their second best winger?

LA is another that people are floating that makes some sense, but they'd need to move out multiple fairly large contracts to make that work (or Dubois) and do they want to do that?

Dubois for Marner would be something to see for the media takes alone though. As dumb as that would be to do.

 

[Americanadian]

People need to pump the brakes on Montour, dude looked like Cale Makar this time a year ago but has been far from that level since. Panthers fans aren't all that crazy about re-signing him, he's also 30 years old. He had the breakout season a year too early imo.

My biggest issue with some of these UFA targets isn't so much the AAV, it's the term they're going to command.

Not to mention most of his offense comes on the PP and if he played PP in Toronto Rielly would be useless.

 

[Evilhomer]

Problem with Chychrun is you're going to pay a premium to get him out of a rival and he's left handed. He's not very expensive on the cap and plenty of teams will go after him. I think if you're looking for a young-ish dynamic left handed defenseman, you might as well just chase Skjei.

I think for me Montour fits most of the check marks. Roy, Pesce or Tanev as well for the veteran defensive d-man that can play big defensive minutes. Re-sign Lyubushkin, look to flip Liljegren, and you have a good top 8. More offense but with the same size + physicality.

My concern with Montour, given what his price will be, is how much his offense fell off this season. It makes me wonder if last season was an aberration. If it was, that would be an expensive contract for a 40ish point defenseman.

 

[Duffman955]

If Marner gets moved, who do we look at at UFA to fill that role?

 

[SprDaVE]

My concern with Montour, given what his price will be, is how much his offense fell off this season. It makes me wonder if last season was an aberration. If it was, that would be an expensive contract for a 40ish point defenseman.

I'll just copy paste my other answer.

It's not even about his big offensive year last season. He played 23:27 TOI/G this year on one of the best teams in the league, which is first among all their D. He was basically their #1 defenseman, especially with Ekblad out for half the season. He QBs their PP incredibly well, has a booming shot and can skate. It's not even about the PP either, he played the most EV TOI/G of their entire D.

You're not going to upgrade the defensive core without giving up term, money or both. And you certainly won't find quality if you don't commit. There isn't much alternative here unless you can hit some home run trades.

 

[Malachi Crunch]

I wouldn't discount Marner accepting a trade to Ottawa. He'd be close to home (which seems important for him and his pops) and his wife is from Oshawa - 3 hours to the Canadian Tire Centre. That stuff matters for a couple who may have a child soon.

Marner + Lily
Chychrun + Norris + 2nd

 

[wingman75]

If Marner gets moved, who do we look at at UFA to fill that role?

I don't think that is one-to-one replacement.

More responsibility goes on Matthews and Nylander.

Then we bring in players to fill out the roster with the cap space that make the team more complete.

 

[Amadeus]

If Marner gets moved, who do we look at at UFA to fill that role?

Jake Guentzal?

 

[VanW27]

If Marner gets moved, who do we look at at UFA to fill that role?

Scoring winger isn't typically the hardest hole to fill in UFA. Biggest names are Stamkos, Reinhart, Guentzel.

But there's plenty of options in the second tier as well. Some more short term (Pavelski, Marchessault, Tarasanko) abd some who will be looking for longterm deals (Toffoli, Teravainen, Lindholm, Stephenson, Duchene)

Lindholm would be a great get, had a down year but is strong defensive C or Winger. Might be able to scoop him up on a shorter deal so he can rebuild his value a bit.

 

[4thline]

Channelling my inner Friedman

"I wonder about San Jose as a dark horse destination for Marner. They have a lot of recent high picks up front, and with Celebrini inbound there's chatter that Grier doesn't want to get stuck in the rebuild trap and is hoping to push for the playoffs faster than one would expect. They're going to be ELC heavy for the next 3 years, which gives them a window where a Marner size contract isn't a problem- and for the cap to grow. I don't think there's appetite to include either of Smith or Eklund, but with Celebrini joining Smith down the middle I think a Bysted could come available, as well as the 14th overall pick. Now, there's a case to be made that they're better off spending these assets on defense- but something to keep an eye on."

 

[SprDaVE]

Channelling my inner Friedman

"I wonder about San Jose as a dark horse destination for Marner. They have a lot of recent high picks up front, and with Celebrini inbound there's chatter that Grier doesn't want to get stuck in the rebuild trap and is hoping to push for the playoffs faster than one would expect. They're going to be ELC heavy for the next 3 years, which gives them a window where a Marner size contract isn't a problem- and for the cap to grow. I don't think there's appetite to include either of Smith or Eklund, but with Celebrini joining Smith down the middle I think a Bysted could come available, as well as the 14th overall pick. Now, there's a case to be made that they're better off spending these assets on defense- but something to keep an eye on."

I will say Grier seems primed to do something weird like that. But I have serious doubts Marner would ever go there, even if it's California, but maybe Marleau would convince him.

 

[sxvnert]

Montour is exactly what we need if we can find a reasonable deal. We desperately need more ability to move the puck from the backend. I wonder what a guy like Sean Walker will cost, also an offensive RHD.

Other interesting targets would be Matt Roy, Brady Skeji, and Brett Pesce, but these are all likely too expensive for what they bring.

If we could sign Montour and resign Lybushkin, we have a solid defence. We could run something like:

Rielly - Lyub
McCabe - Montour
Benoit - Lily

Of course, adding a Roy or Pesce rather than Lybuskin is better, but also more expensive.

Also, I wonder if we are sleeping on a Tavares trade. After his July 1 bonus, he gets paid 900K. Any team that is not a cap team could easily add him in.

I would love to use the money freed up from dealing him to take a serious run at Chandler Stephenson. He is the second center that we need and brings speed, which we also sorely lack.

Better off adding Ghost on the cheap for a year or two vs the 7/8 yr deal for anyone else. While terrible defensively, hes a legit PP1 QB.

Rielly Boosh
McCabe Benoit
Edmundson Gostisbehere (2yr/4m aav)
M.Staal (900k), E.Johnson (1m)

Trade/dont qualify Lily, trade Timmins, tell Gio and Brodie to take a hike.

 

[Americanadian]

I will say Grier seems primed to do something weird like that. But I have serious doubts Marner would ever go there, even if it's California, but maybe Marleau would convince him.

Good pull on Marleau. That could actually be a factor.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Team is going to extend Marner in the summer, be the same mid team next year and will change when JT is off the books @ 11m in 2025-2026. They would be a lot better of a team if they were only paying 3 of the players (39% of the cap, 13.25,11.5m,12m, and the cap goes up to 92mill --Based off capfriendly cap projection in 2025-2026)

Book it. (This is not what I want them to do but they have doubled down on them before, why not again.)

There is a chance that could happen. Management can reiterate how difficult it is to acquire elite talent in the NHL to try to justify it.

 

[4thline]

I will say Grier seems primed to do something weird like that. But I have serious doubts Marner would ever go there, even if it's California, but maybe Marleau would convince him.

I completely forgot about the Marleau connection....

As to Marner's willingness... who can say. But I'd argue there's a pretty unique package of weather, low pressure, opportunity to win, and ability to pay there.

 

[TheShape]

It's not even about his big offensive year last season. He played 23:27 TOI/G this year on one of the best teams in the league, which is first among all their D. He was basically their #1 defenseman, especially with Ekblad out for half the season. He QBs their PP incredibly well, has a booming shot and can skate. It's not even about the PP either, he played the most EV TOI/G of their entire D.

You're not going to upgrade the defensive core without giving up term, money or both. And you certainly won't find quality if you don't commit. There isn't much alternative here unless you can hit some home run trades.

If you want to add Montour and pivot away from Rielly, that's something I could understand, but I don't see the need for both. Having the two locked in until 36-37 at their cap hits and reliance on skating style of play is a big no for me.

 

[SprDaVE]

If you want to add Montour and pivot away from Rielly, that's something I could understand, but I don't see the need for both. Having the two locked in until 36-37 at their cap hits and reliance on skating style of play is a big no for me.

Why? It's ok to have more than 1 capable skilled defenseman that can skate. Injuries happen and being able to produce 5 on 5 is also very much needed.

The issue is definitely his contract term/cap hit. If he's asking way too much then obviously you just move on. That goes for any free agent typically.

 

[TMLAM34]

The connection between Marner and Marleau is a good one. Wouldn’t be too difficult moving to California either.

To Toronto: Blackwood + Bystedt + PIT 1st Rounder
To San Jose: Marner

Not terrible.

 

[TheShape]

Why? It's ok to have more than 1 capable skilled defenseman that can skate. Injuries happen and being able to produce 5 on 5 is also very much needed.

The issue is definitely his contract term/cap hit. If he's asking way too much then obviously you just move on.

Now we're allocating close to 15m in give or take the same D man, while neither player is a true #1 D. At that price point it's feeling a bit redundant, 7.5m for Mo to play 2nd PP and he's not a great PKer either. If we're adding Montour I'd rather just move Rielly for assets and spend his cap hit on a different profile D man, we're well stocked with LHD.

 

[ToneDog]

A lot of people are going to be really disappointed in the return when/if Marner is traded.

Best we are likely to do is trade him to a bottom feeder who likes the low real salary and has the cap space to not care much about that. A team like Anaheim could pick him up, staple him to Carlsson to boost him up for a season and then either flip Marner at the deadline to recoup whatever they gave up for him, or just maybe see if they can convince him to sign something reasonable if it's a good fit.

The ideal trade partner is Utah IMO. Owner with deep pockets wanting to make a big splash. Team has an abundance of picks and prospects. They are probably the team most likely to come close to his ask.

 

[SprDaVE]

Now we're allocating close to 15m in give or take the same D man, while neither player is a true #1 D. At that price point it's feeling a bit redundant, 7.5m for Mo to play 2nd PP and he's not a great PKer either. If we're adding Montour I'd rather just move Rielly for assets and spend his cap hit on a different profile D man, we're well stocked with LHD.

I cannot disagree more. You remove Rielly to add Montour, you're in the same issue we just were this past season. Very little puck moving ability and shooting ability, average mobility and very little upside/depth when injuries start piling up.

This is the idea the Leafs had when they signed Klingberg. Someone that can add skill and skating ability. It was a disaster but that was the idea. They need to find someone that can do that. Montour showed in the last couple seasons he's able to play a lot of minutes at a high level, not just a PP merchant. He must be doing something right playing the most of any of their D in the regular season and playoffs.

 

[Torontonian]

Now we're allocating close to 15m in give or take the same D man, while neither player is a true #1 D. At that price point it's feeling a bit redundant, 7.5m for Mo to play 2nd PP and he's not a great PKer either. If we're adding Montour I'd rather just move Rielly for assets and spend his cap hit on a different profile D man, we're well stocked with LHD.

I understand what you're saying about having two of the same profile player @15m, but having both a Rielly - Montour on 1st and 2nd pairing helps our team a lot.

The other issue I have is no team is trading their number 1 d-man or number 2 dman in their prime for a scoring winger in a extended Mitch Marner. We have the assest to aquire one, I just don't think a team makes that move. Look at the list of elite d-man in their prime (age 24-30?)

Makar, Hughes, Dobson, Faber (will become elite), Morrisy, Power, Dhalin. None of them will be moved for Marner, maybe Werneksi is someone, and I do not like Seth Jones for a Marner trade.

 

[Rare Jewel]

The connection between Marner and Marleau is a good one. Wouldn’t be too difficult moving to California either.

To Toronto: Blackwood + Bystedt + PIT 1st Rounder
To San Jose: Marner

Not terrible.

Interesting, but is SJ ready to make that move?

They're going to be in a 16/17 year like we had, and it likely doesn't fit Marner's plans. He'll likely want somewhere playoff (or more) competitive right now actually to waive.