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GDT: Trades & Free Agency -- Off-season edition

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Fogelhund said:
Wright will play in the NHL next year, and contribute fairly well. Dickinson will be in the NHL within two years. Suggesting 5 years, on high draft picks is ridiculous.

Wright would be able to take over 2C, at the end of Tavares contract, (and you're the guy who thinks Tavares need replacing ASAP) avoiding the need to pick up someone like Lindholm, and paying him 7-8mil... allowing Treliving to allocate that money to the D. Such a trade doesn't suggest a rebuild, it suggests trading for assets that you can control for a decade, and maximize your long-term return, instead of trading for someone who's contract expires in a year or two.

I'm sorry, I'll take a potential 2C, and top pairing D potential, that we would have control of for a decade, any and every day of the week. The reality is... teams aren't trading their Werenski's, or Saros and creating giant holes in their lineup either. Teams would be acquiring Marner to be better now too. The reality is, you'd likely get a better return with futures included.

You'd love my Utah idea too... Crouse, McBain and their 1st... :laugh:

See, I'm tired of giving away assets for shorter term bandaids... I'd rather have very long-term solutions... When it comes down to it, the number of UFA's we need to sign, is pretty small... and the number of D available this year, is beyond the norm. Would we have to overpay some... sure. But we'd need to overpay to get a new 2C at some point soon anyway.... We won't avoid paying to fill one of the holes, with a UFA overpay... that's the reality.
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Acquiring Wright would be solid, ideally Oleksiak is also involved in any deal with Seattle.

We’ve both mentioned Utah making a lot of sense but we’re a little different in our targets. I’d be fine with Guenther and Lamoureux for Marner.
 
LeafsOHLRangers98 said:
No way I want a goalie as the main piece of a Marner trade if we do move him. Goalies have terrible trade market value and you can probably get a decent stop-gap for Hildeby for a 3rd or 4th round pick at the most if you can't sign one.

I need a top young C/RW and RD combo that can play in the league to even consider it.
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Stop gap to Hildeby???

If the leafs are betting future plans around Hildeby being anything more than a backup we should have jusy lept keefe & give marner his 8 year deal.

We need a legit 1G who can maintain his play come playoffs.

We should offer the 7M x 7 to Saros on July 1st 2025 if he makes it there whether he plays 2024-2025 as a leaf or not

You can do a marner deal not with preds/goalie but Saros or a simular tier goalie needs to be our target in 2025

Hildeby is Garret Sparks/Kallgren until he shows he can come in and play consistently at the NHL level.

Woll is a fine backup who has upside still but injury issues hurts him as a longterm building block

Fogelhund said:
On a guy like Wright, have you even paid attention to what he did last year, or???

15 points in his last 16 AHL games, 5 points in 8 NHL games?

The perception issue on Wright, is that he was long thought of as the #1 OA player in his draft. So people compare him to that expectation, which he's never going to live up to. But, he's likely going to be a decent 2C in the NHL, and the last half of the year, his play really picked up.

We could really use a future 2C... and Seattle absolutely needs an elite winger.

You trade for Wright, and their 2024 1st... likely pick up Sam Dickinson 6'3" LD from London.

You've got two very good cost controlled assets, for a decade.. Wright steps in next year. Dickinson within a year or two. You've cleared cap room, and can address other areas of the roster.





The foundation of Dickinson’s game is his mobility. It’s rare to find a defender who moves as well as Dickinson does at 6’3. It was no surprise to see him dominate the on-ice testing at the CHL Top Prospect’s Game; he’s a spectacular athlete. Thanks to his effortless skating stride, Dickinson is an impactful player at both ends of the ice and is able to play aggressively, with and without the puck.

www.sportsnet.ca

Scout's Analysis: Prospects of interest at the Memorial Cup

London, Drummondville, Moose Jaw and host Saginaw will compete at the Memorial Cup beginning on Friday. Scout Jason Bukala will be there, and writes about a few prospects he's most interested in viewing.
www.sportsnet.ca www.sportsnet.ca
Sam Dickinson, D, 6-foot-3, 199 pounds
Draft Eligible: 68GP-18G-52A | Playoffs: 18GP-4G-9A

Dickinson is one of the top ranked defencemen for the 2024 NHL Draft. He's a player who doesn't look like is moving quickly, but it's due to his effortless stride. He brings a combination of size, skill, and open ice transitional pace.

Dickinson logged a ton of ice time for the London Knights in regular season play and the playoffs. He's deployed in all situations. Despite his stature he isn't overly physical. He's more of a "bumper" than a "punisher". He can be elusive walking the offensive blue line and directing pucks on net or joining the rush as an extra layer.

NHL Projection: Top pairing defenceman
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If the kraken deal 8th OA + Wright for Marner that is a fireable trade for Francis

He is worth 1 of those + Bjorkstrad or Burakovsky, not both

His age, contract, play style, playoff production, make him not capable of fetching that much in a trade
 
OVO16 said:
Problem is I dont think there's a Tkachuk out there for Marner

An established player with similar talents
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theres tons of players who have crappy playoff point totals out there. you just have to find the one who might turn it around on your team like tkachuk did
 
hamzarocks said:
Stop gap to Hildeby???

If the leafs are betting future plans around Hildeby being anything more than a backup we should have jusy lept keefe & give marner his 8 year deal.

We need a legit 1G who can maintain his play come playoffs.

We should offer the 7M x 7 to Saros on July 1st 2025 if he makes it there whether he plays 2024-2025 as a leaf or not

You can do a marner deal not with preds/goalie but Saros or a simular tier goalie needs to be our target in 2025

Hildeby is Garret Sparks/Kallgren until he shows he can come in and play consistently at the NHL level.

Woll is a fine backup who has upside still but injury issues hurts him as a longterm building block


If the kraken deal 8th OA + Wright for Marner that is a fireable trade for Francis

He is worth 1 of those + Bjorkstrad or Burakovsky, not both

His age, contract, play style, playoff production, make him not capable of fetching that much in a trade
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I think a much more realistic version of that trade could be:

Wright + 8th pick for Marner + 23rd pick, swapping firsts.

Seattle gets the best player in the trade by far, but who comes with a hefty price tag and weak playoff results, Toronto gets the next 2 best assets, a future 2C and a pick they can use to draft a guy who could potentially be a 1D like Dickinson or Yakemchuk, while Seattle still gets a 1st in return so they come out with something of quality from the draft
 
Fogelhund said:
Wright will play in the NHL next year, and contribute fairly well. Dickinson will be in the NHL within two years. Suggesting 5 years, on high draft picks is ridiculous.

Wright would be able to take over 2C, at the end of Tavares contract, (and you're the guy who thinks Tavares need replacing ASAP) avoiding the need to pick up someone like Lindholm, and paying him 7-8mil... allowing Treliving to allocate that money to the D. Such a trade doesn't suggest a rebuild, it suggests trading for assets that you can control for a decade, and maximize your long-term return, instead of trading for someone who's contract expires in a year or two.

I'm sorry, I'll take a potential 2C, and top pairing D potential, that we would have control of for a decade, any and every day of the week. The reality is... teams aren't trading their Werenski's, or Saros and creating giant holes in their lineup either. Teams would be acquiring Marner to be better now too. The reality is, you'd likely get a better return with futures included.

You'd love my Utah idea too... Crouse, McBain and their 1st... :laugh:

See, I'm tired of giving away assets for shorter term bandaids... I'd rather have very long-term solutions... When it comes down to it, the number of UFA's we need to sign, is pretty small... and the number of D available this year, is beyond the norm. Would we have to overpay some... sure. But we'd need to overpay to get a new 2C at some point soon anyway.... We won't avoid paying to fill one of the holes, with a UFA overpay... that's the reality.
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Do you remembered a guy named Cody Glass than everyone was saying he would be a superstars in NHL, was great in CHL/ ahl, world junior but never be able to translate his game in the NHL and now he's nothing more than a depht player. A pick still an other risk with chance to becoming nothing in NHL much higher than becoming a top pair dman in the NHL. The goal in trade including Marner is to upgrade the team right now but finding kind of thing leafs need right now to complete his team and in no world moving marner for wright making the leafs better right now.

Kotkaniemi after one year in Montreal was suppose to be the next #1
Nolan Patrick

you just dont know what they really are at NH until they're playing in the NHL... and they still a high risk.

Yes team will trade their Werenski, Saros and whatever in Marner sign and trade deal no doubt about it... and if he waiving his clause for a team, the chance are pretty great for a resign. We still talk about the best 2 way winger in the NHL whatever all the hate against him. Especially team like Nashville, columbus who really need help in their offensive group .
 
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Magic Man said:
Marner (extended at 12M per for 8 years)

for

Brady Tkachuk

9 guaranteed years of Marner for 4 guaranteed years of Tkachuk. Tkachuk hasn't led the Senators to the playoffs and Marner has struggled to get the Leafs out of the first round. Ottawa could use some help getting into the playoffs and making playoff revenue and Toronto might like a complimentary power forward to add to their skill up front.
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Even if we offered to retain the salary difference, Ottawa would laugh at our offer.

I've been wishing for this very trade since Tkachuck signed his current deal, but there is no way Ottawa would agree- I believe this just further shows that Marner is overpaid.
 
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supermann_98 said:
I think a much more realistic version of that trade could be:

Wright + 8th pick for Marner + 23rd pick, swapping firsts.

Seattle gets the best player in the trade by far, but who comes with a hefty price tag and weak playoff results, Toronto gets the next 2 best assets, a future 2C and a pick they can use to draft a guy who could potentially be a 1D like Dickinson or Yakemchuk, while Seattle still gets a 1st in return so they come out with something of quality from the draft
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I'm trying to think what it would take to move up from 23rd to 8th in a draft. It's certainly not the value difference between Marner and Wright.
 
To Toronto: Jordan Binnington, Robert Thomas
To St Louis: Mitch Marner, Joseph Woll, Nick Robertson

I am not very good at trade valuations, so I am not sure who would need to add to make this type of framework make sense.

Logic: We need a change in our core. Mitch is a phenomenal player, but I am not sure if his skillset is best suited for a Craig Berube lead team. There was a ton of commentary from Berube about "playing north", which is not Mitch's game at all. It's just not a philosophy that brings out the best of Mitch's game. He just seems like the logical player to go. That said, we do need something of significance in return for our perennial 90+ point superstar.

I think Robert Thomas makes a ton of sense. He's a young star in the league and he's a guy who knows how to play Craig Berube hockey. The Leafs also get Binner in the deal to shore up their goaltending.

As for why I'd think STL might entertain this deal, They get a legit superstar in Mitch, as well as a hometown kid in Joe Woll. I also added Nick Robertson into the deal because I feel like that's a player they'd also want in the deal.

Not sure if the values line up. Again, this is not my strong suit
 
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thusk said:
Do you remembered a guy named Cody Glass than everyone was saying he would be a superstars in NHL, was great in CHL/ ahl, world junior but never be able to translate his game in the NHL and now he's nothing more than a depht player. A pick still an other risk with chance to becoming nothing in NHL much higher than becoming a top pair dman in the NHL. The goal in trade including Marner is to upgrade the team right now but finding kind of thing leafs need right now to complete his team and in no world moving marner for wright making the leafs better right now.

Kotkaniemi after one year in Montreal was suppose to be the next #1
Nolan Patrick

you just dont know what they really are at NH until they're playing in the NHL... and they still a high risk.

Yes team will trade their Werenski, Saros and whatever in Marner sign and trade deal no doubt about it... and if he waiving his clause for a team, the chance are pretty great for a resign. We still talk about the best 2 way winger in the NHL whatever all the hate against him. Especially team like Nashville, columbus who really need help in their offensive group .
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Having seen Wright play, I would suggest that there is zero chance his game won't translate to the NHL, and he had success playing in the NHL this year. Next year, he'll be around 30-40 points in the NHL. He will help Seattle NEXT year... he will help them be better NEXT year. If we traded for him, he would make us better NEXT year. Better C depth, and cheap. He's probably in the 50ish points range as his peak.

That you bring up Nolan Patrick as an example, of someone who didn't work out, suggests you really don't have any idea about Nolan Patrick's journey, or why he didn't work out. Patrick was a talented kid, but someone who never should have been picked where he was. That was easy to see he was a huge risk. How you wish to compare Patrick, and Wright... I have no idea. It lacks any knowledge of the players involved. I mean, you really picked a bad one here.... this is my comment on Patrick pre-draft... 2017 NHL Draft: Grant McCagg's Top 10 (Updated on-the-fly, not intermittently)

That you bring up Columbus, and their "needs", suggests that you really don't know Columbus at all. Trade Marner for Werenski, and then their three highest paid players are wingers. They need a quality Center, not a winger. Trading their 24 minute a game D, who drives offense from the back end, for another winger would be a fireable offense. Nashville is already on record, as is Saros, saying they want to extend... so no, that isn't happening.

I get making comments on prospects, and picks... and the risks involved, when you don't know anything about picks or prospects... such as Patrick, and it seems Wright but if you actually knew about these players, you certainly wouldn't be making a Patrick vs. Wright comparison.. and saying see... Patrick didn't work out... when him not working out was entirely predictable. Oh, ya.. what did I say about Patrick BEFORE the draft? he's likely going to miss a lot of time, and at some point, maybe even risking his career, and production dropping, due to injuries. He's a big risk from that perspective.... :laugh:
 
Twine Tickler said:
To Toronto: Jordan Binnington, Robert Thomas
To St Louis: Mitch Marner, Joseph Woll, Nick Robertson

I am not very good at trade valuations, so I am not sure who would need to add to make this type of framework make sense.

Logic: We need a change in our core. Mitch is a phenomenal player, but I am not sure if his skillset is best suited for a Craig Berube lead team. There was a ton of commentary from Berube about "playing north", which is not Mitch's game at all. It's just not a philosophy that brings out the best of Mitch's game. He just seems like the logical player to go. That said, we do need something of significance in return for our perennial 90+ point superstar.

I think Robert Thomas makes a ton of sense. He's a young star in the league and he's a guy who knows how to play Craig Berube hockey. The Leafs also get Binner in the deal to shore up their goaltending.

As for why I'd think STL might entertain this deal, They get a legit superstar in Mitch, as well as a hometown kid in Joe Woll. I also added Nick Robertson into the deal because I feel like that's a player they'd also want in the deal.

Not sure if the values line up. Again, this is not my strong suit
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I understand the risks of dumping alot of assets into goalies and yes you can win with a no namer or 1A/1B setup but as a Leaf fan, I'm getting very tired of this approach and if Woll either busts or just cant stay healthy, this entire era could be us trying to dumpster dive at the position.

Who really knows how much in long playoff runs or a potential cup we've already lost without having a true #1 or even just someone who doesn't sink us once the postseason starts.

Another thing with the lesser names who won a cup. How many of them also had a all world #1 defender like a Makar or D Keith or even Pietrangelo?
 
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weems said:
I understand the risks of dumping alot of assets into goalies and yes you can win with a no namer or 1A/1B setup but as a Leaf fan, I'm getting very tired of this approach and if Woll either busts or just cant stay healthy, this entire era could be us trying to dumpster dive at the position.

Who really knows how much in long playoff runs or a potential cup we've already lost without having a true #1 or even just someone who doesn't sink us once the postseason starts.

Another thing with the lesser names who won a cup. How many of them also had a all world #1 defender like a Makar or D Keith or even Pietrangelo?
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Yes I agree,

I love Joe Woll, but this just seems like the right time to sell at a moderately high value. I still believe in him as a player, but I wonder about his health. Especially when you consider we have an equally, if not more promising goaltender in the minors in Dennis Hildeby.

I also think the cost certainty of Thomas and Binner is a real spot for potential vs. the 3 players that I have proposed going the other way. Thomas has a real potential of being an absolute steal going forward, especially if he's playing in Toronto with much better skill.

As for Binner, I think he's got the right mindset to thrive in our market. He's arguably the most confident goaltender in the game and he has no reason to be. I like that personally.

In terms of Nick Robertson being thrown in, I do think we'd have to sweeten the pot to acquire Thomas' contract, even though we are still sending a better player in Mitch the other way. Good value contracts with term are insanely valuable, and with his being a shade over 8AAV, it really just makes so much sense for us to target.

Nick is also player that I am not sure will thrive under Craig Berube. He's a gifted scorer, but he refuses to play with any form of simplicity. At least at this stage in his career. I don't think that type of play will be tolerated. Similar to Rasmus Sandin, we may as well part ways before his value plummets
 
Twine Tickler said:
To Toronto: Jordan Binnington, Robert Thomas
To St Louis: Mitch Marner, Joseph Woll, Nick Robertson

I am not very good at trade valuations, so I am not sure who would need to add to make this type of framework make sense.

Logic: We need a change in our core. Mitch is a phenomenal player, but I am not sure if his skillset is best suited for a Craig Berube lead team. There was a ton of commentary from Berube about "playing north", which is not Mitch's game at all. It's just not a philosophy that brings out the best of Mitch's game. He just seems like the logical player to go. That said, we do need something of significance in return for our perennial 90+ point superstar.

I think Robert Thomas makes a ton of sense. He's a young star in the league and he's a guy who knows how to play Craig Berube hockey. The Leafs also get Binner in the deal to shore up their goaltending.

As for why I'd think STL might entertain this deal, They get a legit superstar in Mitch, as well as a hometown kid in Joe Woll. I also added Nick Robertson into the deal because I feel like that's a player they'd also want in the deal.

Not sure if the values line up. Again, this is not my strong suit
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It's an interesting idea... Binnington's game is holding up, and Thomas is a productive C that we could use... I just wonder about Thomas's game translating to the playoffs though. He is pretty soft, and only has 18 points in 45 career playoff games. Is that the kind of player to help us win in the playoffs?
 
Twine Tickler said:
Yes I agree,

I love Joe Woll, but this just seems like the right time to sell at a moderately high value. I still believe in him as a player, but I wonder about his health. Especially when you consider we have an equally, if not more promising goaltender in the minors in Dennis Hildeby.

I also think the cost certainty of Thomas and Binner is a real spot for potential vs. the 3 players that I have proposed going the other way. Thomas has a real potential of being an absolute steal going forward, especially if he's playing in Toronto with much better skill.

As for Binner, I think he's got the right mindset to thrive in our market. He's arguably the most confident goaltender in the game and he has no reason to be. I like that personally.

In terms of Nick Robertson being thrown in, I do think we'd have to sweeten the pot to acquire Thomas' contract, even though we are still sending a better player in Mitch the other way. Good value contracts with term are insanely valuable, and with his being a shade over 8AAV, it really just makes so much sense for us to target.

Nick is also player that I am not sure will thrive under Craig Berube. He's a gifted scorer, but he refuses to play with any form of simplicity. At least at this stage in his career. I don't think that type of play will be tolerated. Similar to Rasmus Sandin, we may as well part ways before his value plummets
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Woll is clearly very talented and he's had some moments where you can see the upside of him becoming a great goalie.

It's just very hard to look past the fact he's never even played 40 games in one season as a pro.

Say we keep Woll and sign someone like a Brossoit. If Woll again next season shows he has durability issues and Brossoit is just a backup, what's the plan the following season? Again sign/trade for some middle tier backup type and hope for the best?
 
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weems said:
Woll is clearly very talented and he's had some moments where you can see the upside of him becoming a great goalie.

It's just very hard to look past the fact he's never even played 40 games in one season as a pro.

Say we keep Woll and sign someone like a Brossoit. If Woll again next season shows he has durability issues and Brossoit is just a backup, what's the plan the following season? Again sign some middle tier backup type and hope for the best?
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and if we go out and spend assets, or serious cap on a legit #1... and then Woll becomes reliable, plays to his capability and takes over the #1 spot.. it's also a problem. We suddenly have the highest paid backup in the league. They certainly have a conundrum here. I'm not sure what they'll do... but in the end, it's the Leafy thing to get it wrong, no matter which way they go.
 
Fogelhund said:
and if we go out and spend assets, or serious cap on a legit #1... and then Woll becomes reliable, plays to his capability and takes over the #1 spot.. it's also a problem. We suddenly have the highest paid backup in the league. They certainly have a conundrum here. I'm not sure what they'll do... but in the end, it's the Leafy thing to get it wrong, no matter which way they go.
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That's true and by me saying what I said, doesn't mean I want them to trade Mitch for Saros.

I am just not against trading/signing a proven goalie as much as some.

It's a risk either way and so far we've gone more in the not invest too much into the position and so far it hasn't really worked out.
 
weems said:
Woll is clearly very talented and he's had some moments where you can see the upside of him becoming a great goalie.

It's just very hard to look past the fact he's never even played 40 games in one season as a pro.

Say we keep Woll and sign someone like a Brossoit. If Woll again next season shows he has durability issues and Brossoit is just a backup, what's the plan the following season? Again sign some middle tier backup type and hope for the best?
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Yup,

I'd feel very comfortable with Binnington as the starter playing 50games and having a combo of Hildeby/Murray/Jones filling in for the remaining 32.

This would all be with the hope that we'd see enough from Hildeby in the next year or 2 to have him seriously push for the net in Binnington's final year of his deal (2026-27)

Again, I have no clue if the framework of the deal I proposed even makes sense for STL, but I love how it lines up for us
 
Brobust said:
I'm trying to think what it would take to move up from 23rd to 8th in a draft. It's certainly not the value difference between Marner and Wright.
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If it was straight up assets in a nutshell I'd agree with you %100, but the $10m in cap space this trade would free up to sign a couple solid Dmen would (in theory) make sure the team doesn't fall into lottery land.

Resign Domi
Sign 2 of Matt Roy, Brett Pesce, or Dylan Demelo

Knies-Matthews-Domi
McMann-Wright-Nylander
Grebyonkin-Tavares-Jarnkrok
Dewar-Holmberg-Reaves

Rielly-Roy
McCabe-Pesce
Benoit-Liljegren

Yeah I have Tavares at 3C but the middle 2 lines would be pretty interchangeable depending on matchups

Then we'd also have a potential stud future 1D waiting in the wings like Dickinson or Yakemchuk, guys who once they hit their stride in the NHL you just can't trade for even if you want to
 
SprDaVE said:
LeBrun says early convos between Leafs and Domi have happened. He thinks it might take a 5-6 year deal between 5M and 6M to get it done... ouch.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1794019104338182430
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A 4 something x 4 I could stomach for Domi but getting over 5 that seems a bit much.

Depends on what happens with a few other guys though. Lots of trades this year I'm thinking for a number of teams. I think it'll be a pretty busy off season.
 
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