Trades and Free Agency Thread - Quarantine reduced to 7 days
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stickty111
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123offtheglass
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leafsfan5
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Yeah it all comes down to if a team is willing to potentially take the expansion hit for getting Ekholm. Nashville should keep the option open in case someone does decide to pony up imo
Dreakmur
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stickty111
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Just looked it up. 110 players have played 45 or more minutes on the PK. Here is where Kerfoot ranks.
CA/60: 8th
SCA/60: 36th
HDCA/60: 39th
xGA/60: 21st
So one of the better ones is a stretch, but he has been excellent.
Warden of the North
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Kerfoot might be the most average NHL player I've ever seen. And a prime example why you don't pay those guys more then 2m in this cap range. It's not that he's severely overpayed at 3.75, it's that you could luck out on a 1m guy off the scrapheap giving you basically the same thing
kb
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123offtheglass
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SeaOfBlue
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Pretty much he provides solid 3rd line production, is solid in his own end, can PK, can play up and down the lineup.
He's very vanilla, but the kind of vanilla you want as a depth guy on your team.
If Vancouver pays the right price (I would want at least their 2021 2nd) and the Leafs get the right guy to replace him, then go ahead. I find it hard to believe all of that is going to come together properly though.
SeaOfBlue
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Out of forwards who play 50+ minutes on the PK (100 players exactly):
8th in xGA/60
5th in CA/60
9th in FA/60
13th in SA/60
21st in SCA/60
25th in HDCA/60
22nd in HDGA/60
74th in GA/60
95th in on-ice save percentage. Mikheyev is 52nd; Marner is 84th, Hyman is 81st.
So unless you are blaming Kerfoot for Andersen being inept on the PK (he has 18 GA on a 9.24 xGA this season while Hutch and Campbell have given up 4 on a combined 5.4 xGA), when all of our other forwards are suffering from the exactly same effect, then he is up there in the league right now.
Source: naturalstattrick.com
EDIT: I realized Sticky probably referenced the same thing. I used 50 minutes instead of 45 though.
SeaOfBlue
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Tufto goes to Tampa.
Kawaguchi goes to Dallas.
I think we did much better with Steeves TBH, especially considering age and style of play. I didn't have Kawaguchi nor Tufto as guys worth ELC's given they are already 24 and are smaller playmaking types who will need to rely mostly on their offense to make it to the NHL. Good AHLers/Europeans, but not full time NHLers.
I could be wrong obviously, but they give me Hirose vibes and Hirose hasn't been able to break through on Detroit either. We have enough high skill smaller guys with a lot more upside.
Kawaguchi goes to Dallas.
I think we did much better with Steeves TBH, especially considering age and style of play. I didn't have Kawaguchi nor Tufto as guys worth ELC's given they are already 24 and are smaller playmaking types who will need to rely mostly on their offense to make it to the NHL. Good AHLers/Europeans, but not full time NHLers.
I could be wrong obviously, but they give me Hirose vibes and Hirose hasn't been able to break through on Detroit either. We have enough high skill smaller guys with a lot more upside.
Randy Randerson
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Kurtz
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Advanced stats seem to group Kerfoot, Marner, Hyman and Mickey quite closely together in this. So either we have 4 of the best penalty killing forwards in the league on our team, or there is a multicollinearity effect that biases the numbers some.
Dreakmur
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I agree you want that player. You can’t have him at a 3.5 million dollar cap hit.
123offtheglass
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Thanks for the reference, pretty impressive site; one thing though this set of 9 stats do not tell the whole story (tells quite a bit though, but obviously even a full analysis of every statistic would tell more but not everything). For instance you'd expect the 2nd pk unit (those who do not start penalty kills) to have easier matchups because: 1) They more often than not face a secondary powerplay unit; and/or 2) when facing the first unit, those players are more fatigued resulting in decreased on ice efficiency directly correlated to their stats.
Knowing this you'd expect Spezza & Hyman (more so Hyman), for the Leafs to have worse numbers statistically, as they often start penalty kills against the opposition's best. Obviously Kerfoot has done very well, but he is sheltered in comparison to those who either start ahead of him or come off the bench before him for penalty kills.
Statistics can't quite identify this, at least that I'm aware of, but in this same set of data you can somewhat by these this same set of players' D-zone starts in comparison to their on the fly starts and offensive zone start %; where Kerfoot ranks 98th in D-zone starts, 5th in offensive zone start %, & 19th in on the fly starts.
Stats can be a little misleading at times.
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stickty111
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Natural stat trick. I would be fine with upgrading Kerfoot but he is better then he gets credit for.
Mr Knies Guy
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Mr Knies Guy
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Great point. Considering we're sitting in 20th at 77%, and closer to 31st than 1st, I'd say that's not very likely.
123offtheglass
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Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Re the Kerfoot debate in here. I'm of the view that i think Dubas could get creative with that money in free agency BUT it would be harder to replicate that many suggest.
Fact is he's a multi role guy, who can slide up and down the lineup. And while it's true it's not particularly spectacular in many of those roles, those guys don't exactly grow on trees...
Fact is he's a multi role guy, who can slide up and down the lineup. And while it's true it's not particularly spectacular in many of those roles, those guys don't exactly grow on trees...
Mickey Marner
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Kerfoot generally doesn't start the PK with a defensive zone draw. You can't compare guys like that to 1st unit PK'ers. Having to win the faceoff and clear the zone is significantly more difficult than coming off the bench fresh against a potentially tired PP unit.
Randy Randerson
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Ah ya, he's been terrible in the faceoff circle this year. His career is near 50% though, I'd tend to trust the larger sample for something so repetitive...like flipping a coin 10 times in a row could be all heads, but flipping it 10 million times is going to net very near 50/50. So I think he'll right that ship.
Martin Skoula
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At the same time you're coming in out of position, often into a situation where you have a Barrie/McDavid picking up speed through the neutral zone after a clear.
You can ignore the stats, I like what I see him do out there. He intercepts a lot of pucks and moves it quickly, I don't see him stick out in a negative way often if at all.
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