Trades and Free Agency - 2022 Off-season

[Dreakmur]

He was a consistently strong 3rd line centre last year. He should play in that spot again this year.

He was 6th in ice time in the regular season and 5th in the playoffs.

 

[Havoc]

This week's armchair GM:

Trade 1: Sandin for Hayton

The reasoning for this trade for both sides has been discussed at length in here.

Trade 2: OTT 2023 3rd OR Holmberg to NJ for Zetterlund

This is probably an overpayment. I am a believer in Zetterlund. I love his unique profile (5'11, 220 lbs) and his production last season. He will likely be forced onto waivers because the Devils have a glut of bottom 6 forwards (Wood, Bastian, Johnsson, Tatar, Mcleod, Foote, Haula, Boqvist, Zetterlund). This trade could probably be made for Holmberg straight up because he is the same age but waivers exempt which would allow New Jersey to stash him in the AHL for a year until Johnsson, Tatar, Haula expire.

Trade 3: Kerfoot to WPG for 2023 5th

Kerfoot might be dumped for future considerations at this point. I have no clue if he has value. Winnipeg seems like a good fit. They are lacking NHL forwards and they might deal any of Scheifele, Wheeler, Dubois before the season even starts.

Signings:

Hayton 1.5M x2
ZAR 1.25M x2
Zetterlund 900k x1

View attachment 574163

This roster leaves 1.5M to spare which allows the Leafs to carry 2 of Benn, Mete, Anderson, Gaudette, Malgin.

Good point on Kerfoot. Market is really weird right now for middle class players.

What everyone can agree on however, is that his contract is very easy to move if needed. Only the value coming back is a question mark. Hopefully they have a good plan for his cap space that is a better fit for our playoff needs. If they do, then that's the value coming back, and that value is worth a lot, so we shouldn't hesitate dumping him for free even.

 

[LeafChief]

He was 6th in ice time in the regular season and 5th in the playoffs.

PK time contributes to that number being inflated. Everyone knows he's a 3rd liner. You know this as well.

Nothing wrong with it. He excelled last year in that role and I hope that he does it again.

 

[Havoc]

I don't see how you trade kerfoot and expect to replace his 50 points for cheaper.

"If your only options for bottom 6 centers are kerfoot and kampf, you will most likely find Kerfoot on the 4th line. Kampf has jumped him on the C depth chart. Kerfoot needs to be on the wing to stay ahead of Kampf"

Kerfoot as our 3C is horrible and I doubt Keefe trusts him there over Kampf. So at C Kerfoot is on your 4th line and should therefore be traded if his only place in the roster becomes as a center

I said Kerfoot is ahead of Kampf if he remains a winger. Remaining a winger depends on how the bottom 6 (-- or 2LW) shapes up leading to the trade deadline. He's still here getting his 50 points for you if he remains here as a winger. I didn't trade him aimlessly. If he's traded it implies they found some sort of combination that will contribute toward winning in a more efficient manner. Narrowing down winning to Kerfoots potential 50 points seems unwise and not worth prioritizing.

 

[Shooter2x]

Hopefully they have a good plan for his cap space that is a better fit for our playoff needs. If they do, then that's the value coming back, and that value is worth a lot, so we shouldn't hesitate dumping him for free even.

This is "maximizing wins instead of maximizing value" approach Tampas GM discussed as the final steps to securing the cup winning teams. Agree with this statement fully.

 

[A1LeafNation]

"If your only options for bottom 6 centers are kerfoot and kampf, you will most likely find Kerfoot on the 4th line. Kampf has jumped him on the C depth chart. Kerfoot needs to be on the wing to stay ahead of Kampf"

Kerfoot as our 3C is horrible and I doubt Keefe trusts him there over Kampf. So at C Kerfoot is on your 4th line and should therefore be traded if his only place in the roster becomes as a center

I said Kerfoot is ahead of Kampf if he remains a winger. Remaining a winger depends on how the bottom 6 (-- or 2LW) shapes up leading to the trade deadline. He's still here getting his 50 points for you if he remains here as a winger. I didn't trade him aimlessly. If he's traded it implies they found some sort of combination that will contribute toward winning in a more efficient manner. Narrowing down winning to Kerfoots potential 50 points seems unwise and not worth prioritizing.

I don't see it. Kerfoot gives you 50 points, PKs, and can play C when needed. You can't find that for 3.5m.

Engvall Kerfoot Jankrok (when you need a 3rd wave for offence)
ZAR Kampf Aube-Kubel (when you need to shut it down)

Both bottom 6 lines can play 10-15 min situationally. And the top 6 can play 40 min against any line.

 

[Mess]

3rd line is too soft for playoffs. One of Engvall or Kerfoot has to go. Engvall was one of the worst depth players seen in the entire playoffs this season and gives no reason to get benefit of the doubt that it will be any better.

Kerfoot can go as low as 30% on faceoffs in the playoffs that's who we want as 3C?


The cap space to finish the team exists in some combination of muzzin/engvall/kerfoot/holl. Dubas last chance to form winning depth.

The Engvall - Kerfoot- Jarnkrok trio can be call the "Expansion line", because all 3 players were exposed to Seattle in the expansion draft with only Jarnkrok being taken. The Leafs GM went out of his way to acquire a better player for Seattle in Jared McCann, so he could protect and insulate Engvall and Kerfoot from being claimed.

Calgary acquired Jarnkrok for their playoff drive but he only recorded 4 assists in 17 games down the stretch and contributed 1 goal and 4 points in 12 playoff games, but he does appear to be the best of that 3rd line crew.

I suspect since Leafs are already over the salary cap limit now and once they signed Sandin (~1.5 - $2 mil) that Kerfoot would be the obvious cap casualty to go for futures so Leafs can become cap compliant,

So then Jarnkrok who is a centre might slide into the middle or it will be Kampf that centers the Leafs 3rd line next year or it might be Engvall -- Kampf -- Jarnkrok when the dust settles.

 

[Dreakmur]

PK time contributes to that number being inflated. Everyone knows he's a 3rd liner. You know this as well.

Nothing wrong with it. He excelled last year in that role and I hope that he does it again.

He’s a good 3rd line centre. Only elite depth would push him to the 4th line, which we don’t have.

He was 4th in even strength ice time in the playoffs… ahead of Nylander…

 

[LeafChief]

He was 4th in even strength ice time in the playoffs… ahead of Nylander…

I suppose you are correct then. I guess I missed all of the games that he played in the top 6.

I assume we'll see him lining up next to Matthews or Tavares this season.

 

[Dreakmur]

I suppose you are correct then. I guess I missed all of the games that he played in the top 6.

I assume we'll see him lining up next to Matthews or Tavares this season.

Seems that you just want to argue despite being on the same side of this discussion.

Ask Sheldon Keefe. He’s the guy who played him a lot.

Very few teams use their top-6 all together.

 

[LeafChief]

Ask Sheldon Keefe. He’s the guy who played him a lot.

Very few teams use their top-6 all together.

Sure - I'll call him on my lunch break.

 

[Havoc]

I don't see it. Kerfoot gives you 50 points, PKs, and can play C when needed. You can't find that for 3.5m.

Engvall Kerfoot Jankrok (when you need a 3rd wave for offence)
ZAR Kampf Aube-Kubel (when you need to shut it down)

Both bottom 6 lines can play 10-15 min situationally. And the top 6 can play 40 min against any line.

I mean I'm more focused on a cup winning combination of depth I don't really care about Kerfoots 50 points. Our season doesn't depend on Kerfoot getting 50 points as a Leaf.

If you have an argument that can prove Kerfoot is ahead of Kampf at C then maybe I can see it, otherwise it's a hard sell. Further, I don't agree that your 4th line as constructed is interchangeable with a 3rd line. When people said they like Kubel and ZAR I doubt they meant as a 3A/3B. We just want to enjoy having a 4th line for once and we're already jumping the gun to it being a 3B? Too many flaws are being exposed with your lines, I don't like your bottom 6 as the cup winning bottom 6 given that there's so much more we can do with it and nothing stopping us from doing more. It's actually really easy for us to make bottom 6 changes, we just need to hope the changes end up smart. If they're not smart then yes it's better to just keep Kerfoot.

 

[Mess]

I don't see how you trade kerfoot and expect to replace his 50 points for cheaper.

This is the current work in progress roster changes at forward.

OUT
============================
Mikheyev................................ 21 goals 32 points
Spezza .....................................12 goals 25 points
Kase .........................................14 goals 27 points
Blackwell (TO/SEA) ............ 10 goals 20 points (2 goals 3 points Leafs)

Total OUT YTD ............. 49 goals 87 points (including only Leafs stats)

IN
===============================
Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (PHI/COL)...........11 goals 23 points
Adam Gaudette (CHI/OTT)................... 5 goals 12 points
Calle Jarnkrock (SEA/CAL) ...................12 goals 30 points
Denis Malgin (Swiss league) .............. NA

Total IN YTD ................................ 28 goals 65 points

If you dump Kerfoot for Cap reasons 82 games 13 goals 38 assists 51 points that makes the OUT going totals larger ... 62 goals & 138 points ,with the new crew barely covering 1/2 that lost offense.

 

[Shooter2x]

Seems that you just want to argue despite being on the same side of this discussion.

Ask Sheldon Keefe. He’s the guy who played him a lot.

Very few teams use their top-6 all together.

Ah I see. You threw me off too but you mean top 6 in importance, not lines.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I suppose you are correct then. I guess I missed all of the games that he played in the top 6.
I assume we'll see him lining up next to Matthews or Tavares this season.

Gee, didn't you know? The guy that played in the 3rd line center spot the entire year and playoffs is a top-6 forward because he got 6 seconds more even strength ice time than Nylander over a 7 game stretch.

 

[Mess]

If Colorado had a fully healthy lineup, does he dress? I suppose it would depend, but two of him, Sturm, and Newhook sit and only one gets to dress.

I like the addition, but calling him Colorado’s 13th forward isn’t unfair.

Aube-Kubel only dressed for 4 of Colorado last 10 playoff games against (2 games ) vs EDM in WCF, and (2 games) vs TB in SF.

He only did that because Naz missed those 4 games in the playoffs.

Even the Leafs after signing him defined him as "His play was a little up and down in the playoffs, but he still suited up for 14 games. That said, it was clear by the end of the Stanley Cup Finals that Aube-Kubel was on the outside looking in on Avalanche lineups".

That seems like a 13th forward to me as does his 0-0-0 playoff points last year,.

 

[TheDoldrums]

He’s a good 3rd line centre. Only elite depth would push him to the 4th line, which we don’t have.

He was 4th in even strength ice time in the playoffs… ahead of Nylander…

Keefe made a big philosophical switch last year. He wanted a shutdown 3rd line to match up against the other teams top players. I think it worked really well. Kampf/Engvall/Mikheyev or whoever it was got brutal d-zone starts against tough competition and held their own in terms of possession. It also allowed Keefe to shelter the Tavares line, sorely needed.

There's no reason to think anything will be different this year. The Kampf line will get big minutes again.

 

[LeafChief]

Gee, didn't you know? The guy that played in the 3rd line center spot the entire year and playoffs is a top-6 forward because he got 6 seconds more even strength ice time than Nylander over a 7 game stretch.

David Kampf is a top 6 forward. The Arena Operator said so.

 

[A1LeafNation]

I mean I'm more focused on a cup winning combination of depth I don't really care about Kerfoots 50 points. Our season doesn't depend on Kerfoot getting 50 points as a Leaf.

If you have an argument that can prove Kerfoot is ahead of Kampf at C then maybe I can see it, otherwise it's a hard sell. Further, I don't agree that your 4th line as constructed is interchangeable with a 3rd line. When people said they like Kubel and ZAR I doubt they meant as a 3A/3B. We just want to enjoy having a 4th line for once and we're already jumping the gun to it being a 3B? Too many flaws are being exposed with your lines, I don't like your bottom 6 as the cup winning bottom 6 given that there's so much more we can do with it and nothing stopping us from doing more. It's actually really easy for us to make bottom 6 changes, we just need to hope the changes end up smart. If they're not smart then yes it's better to just keep Kerfoot.

I'm not attempting to compare Kerfoot vs Kampf at 3C.

I'm saying you use 2 lines in the bottom 6 situationally. One line for defensive assignments and one line for offensive assignments. Kampf would center his line and Kerfoot/Engvall/Jankrok can center the other line.

It would be the idea of having two lines that are options for the coach.

 

[Dreakmur]

Gee, didn't you know? The guy that played in the 3rd line center spot the entire year and playoffs is a top-6 forward because he got 6 seconds more even strength ice time than Nylander over a 7 game stretch.

Over the most important 7 game stretch of the entire season…..

David Kampf is a top 6 forward. The Arena Operator said so.

Sheldon Keefe said so.

There’s a difference between being top 6 on the roster card and being top 6 in practice. Kampf is a bottom 6 on the roster card and top 6 in practice.

 

[Havoc]

I'm not attempting to compare Kerfoot vs Kampf at 3C.

I'm saying you use 2 lines in the bottom 6 situationally. One line for defensive assignments and one line for offensive assignments. Kampf would center his line and Kerfoot/Engvall/Jankrok can center the other line.

It would be the idea of having two lines that are options for the coach.

hmmmm I just see it more as a worst case scenario combination for bottom 6 (okay not worst case I just don't see how it's high end on efficiency list). I can see how it can be used I just don't see why it would be worth considering as something we want as of today.

Also this isn't directed towards you exactly but I think the whole 50 points/ Leafs points thing is being overblown.

JT gets to actually train this off season instead of rehab, so we can expect anywhere from 5-40(go big or go home )extra points spread across JT and Nylander.

Are people projecting zero points for 2LW? At least 40 of Kerfoots 50 points will be 2LW's floor just by standing in the top 6 full time

Then there's considering if GF + points is a concern or just points? If just points then it's not a concern because Kerfoot is not a heavy goal scorer. As long as theres no signficant dip in GF, the points will work themselves out by game 82.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Over the most important 7 game stretch of the entire season…..



Sheldon Keefe said so.

There’s a difference between being top 6 on the roster card and being top 6 in practice. Kampf is a bottom 6 on the roster card and top 6 in practice.

I disagree with this line of thinking.

Leafs were bleeding goals the entire series. Kampf is their best shutdown forward and got majority defensive assignments.

If you need a stop you put Kampf in. If you need a goal in tied game, you are playing Nylander over Kampf.

The forward lines in a playoff series are played situationally. Kampf is the best forward to play in defensive situations. Nylander is the 3rd/4th best forward to play in offensive situations.

 

[Voodoo Child]

This is the current work in progress roster changes at forward.

OUT
============================
Mikheyev................................ 21 goals 32 points
Spezza .....................................12 goals 25 points
Kase .........................................14 goals 27 points
Blackwell (TO/SEA) ............ 10 goals 20 points (2 goals 3 points Leafs)

Total OUT YTD ............. 49 goals 87 points (including only Leafs stats)

IN
===============================
Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (PHI/COL)...........11 goals 23 points
Adam Gaudette (CHI/OTT)................... 5 goals 12 points
Calle Jarnkrock (SEA/CAL) ...................12 goals 30 points
Denis Malgin (Swiss league) .............. NA

Total IN YTD ................................ 28 goals 65 points

If you dump Kerfoot for Cap reasons 82 games 13 goals 38 assists 51 points that makes the OUT going totals larger ... 62 goals & 138 points ,with the new crew barely covering 1/2 that lost offense.

All that assumes an identical situation to last year and everything is always moving.

The departures are mostly inflated by Mikheyev and his 21 goals, and it is good production given who he played with and didn’t get to play with, but he was never going to stay getting the offers he was getting.

I kind of expected Kerfoot to have been traded by now and keeping Blackwell but values are skewed - any big Dman who skates ok is worth a 2nd, a decent prospect and a 4th, a versatile 0.5 PPG winger is worth a 5th. And Dubas could probably figure out a way to keep him if he wanted.

He can play center but isn’t very good at it and is a great passer, but he only got 13 goals, I know several of them were timely goals, but Jarnkrok scores at the same rate - 64 goals for Kerfoot in the last five years and 66 for Jarnkrok.

We all love Spezza but he could only operate in one way - centering a tertiary shutdown line with defensively responsible wingers. I think he’ll be great in his role with the organization, while NAK produces the same and is a defensively responsible winger with some physicality.

Colorado and Tampa both have nice bottom-sixes they aren’t afraid to roll out 25 minutes a game.

Engvall Kampf Jarnkrok
Steeves ??? Aube Kubel

It’s not quite there, and who knows who else is coming on?

There’s Robertson, but if he shows well he’ll jump up to the 2nd line. Who knows who else on the Marlies could do it.

Gagner or maybe Stastny for <1.5 would be nice.

Maybe even a trade.

 

[nuck]

Mikheyev to Aube-Kubel is a significant downgrade. He’s a hard forechecking forward - probably better than Mikheeyev in that regard - but he doesn’t defend nearly as well and I can’t see him scoring at a 32 goal pace.

Even keeping Mikheyev would have been a downgrade, since he likely doesn’t repeat his career year.

I don't think we actually know what Aube Kubel is yet. A 2.04 pp60 with Colorado so well ahead of Kase Mik and Engvall. The guy played under 10:00 a night so what he can produce with Mik's minutes might surprise.

I don't see how you trade kerfoot and expect to replace his 50 points for cheaper.

You can definitely replace his 13 g for under $3.5M., Engvall, Mik, and Kase all did that and more for half the salary. The question is how many of his 16 primary assists are on him and how many are due to the firepower he plays with? I am not sure this is a repeatable year for Kerf. If they can sell high they probably should.

 

[Shooter2x]

hmmmm I just see it more as a worst case scenario combination for bottom 6 (okay not worst case I just don't see how it's high end on efficiency list). I can see how it can be used I just don't see why it would be worth considering as something we want as of today.

Also this isn't directed towards you exactly but I think the whole 50 points/ Leafs points thing is being overblown.

JT gets to actually train this off season instead of rehab, so we can expect anywhere from 5-40(go big or go home )extra points spread across JT and Nylander.

Are people projecting zero points for 2LW? At least 40 of Kerfoots 50 points will be 2LW's floor just by standing in the top 6 full time

Then there's considering if GF + points is a concern or just points? If just points then it's not a concern because Kerfoot is not a heavy goal scorer. As long as theres no signficant dip in GF, the points will work themselves out by game 82.

If the team construction is putting up wins does anyone even care if our GF goes lower than usual? I agree though, I don't expect any significant dip in GF with or without Kerfoot.

The cap still isn't rising much for teams to offset any more improvement in matthews/marner/nylander and a more in-shape Tavares next season. That alone is like adding some extra depth so our focus should be a bottom 6 made for the playoffs (3C should be 50% on the draws or higher as a minimum, huge NO to Kerfoot from me).

Kampf-4C or 3C-Kampf is ideal. We currently don't have anyone playoff worthy for the 4C or "push kampf down" roles. Kerfoot is not an option for 4C because then you venture into horrible cap management territory. We need that cap space for other uses.