Trades and Free Agency - 2022/2023 Trade Deadline Edition

[TMLAM34]

Mentioned this before, a deal for Bertuzzi and Rasmussen would be a great addition to this team. Deal probably starts with Robertson and our 2023 2nd round draft pick +.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Bertuzzi - Tavares - Nylander
Knies - Rasmussen - Kerfoot
Engvall - Kampf - Jarnkrok
Aston Reese + Holmberg

Then look for an upgrade on the blueline.

 

[kb]

Curious what the contracts for Lily and Sandin looked like? Might be able to make it through a year but when Matthews and Marner need new contracts soon after I dont know how you fit in Matthews, Marner, Nylander, JT and Meier and still ice a decent team outside of the top 6. Obviously if JT is resigned it will free up like 5 million dollars or something like that but I imagine that will be eaten by other extensions

I am thinking that Sandin will be traded for a different style of defender.

Right now it is Matthews and Nylander who need contracts after next season ($4 million cap increase should take care of that), plus Liljegren and Sandin (but I think Sandin is a trade chip now). It is the season after than Marner and Tavares deals come up, and Tavares will not get close to what he's getting now, so that takes care of Marner's raise and probably Timmins.

It's doable, but the 2024/25 will be tight. The bottom 6 will take a bit of a hit too.

 

[Gilmour1996]

I wouldn't count 100% on Knies helping the cap problems next year. He hasn't played a single game in the AHL or NHL. Certainly not on second line Leafs.
It could happen...but Dubas is not going to acquire players under contract for next year at big $$$ at TDL counting on Knies to make the team.

 

[ACC1224]

If their only motivation is to put themselves in the best position to draft bedard (which I agree, it is) then they should be motivated to take a reasonable offer as soon as possible. This point kinda works against your previous one imo

I don't follow.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I am thinking that Sandin will be traded for a different style of defender.

Right now it is Matthews and Nylander who need contracts after next season ($4 million cap increase should take care of that), plus Liljegren and Sandin (but I think Sandin is a trade chip now). It is the season after than Marner and Tavares deals come up, and Tavares will not get close to what he's getting now, so that takes care of Marner's raise and probably Timmins.

It's doable, but the 2024/25 will be tight. The bottom 6 will take a bit of a hit too.

Makes sense with Rielly basically taking up the offensive LD role for the next 8 years.

Sorry if I misunderstood, you think Nylander + Matthews raise will total 4 million dollars? I dont see that to be honest. Matthews got almost 12 million as a RFA without winning anything but a Calder. He now will have multiple Rockets, a Hart and is a UFA. I think he likely wants 15 million which would be a 3.4 million increase already. Nylander probably wants around 10 million which is another 3+ million.

One of my big worries is these type of moves result in Lily being bridged to save cap in the short term. His bridge then would likely end around when Marner and co would need raises so may price himself out of town. Personally I would lock lily down for 8 years asap as those deals for young players seem to be working out quite well these days

 

[thusk]

I tried to argue with another poster that looking purely at his number this year, he’s playing on a AHL level team that’s actively trying to lose games, with line mates that are generally 4th line players, and when he played with a finisher like DeBrincatt 1 year ago, he put up 92 points. It’s extremely hard to judge players that are playing on god awful teams.

“Showtime” being compared to Foligno is a slap in the face to Kane, they’re no where close to players and what they can still do, the only comparison is that he might have a injury and according to him, says is overblown.

Kane might be a liability in his own end, but I have no worries when you put him back into meaningful games, you’ll see the best of Kane. If you want to put the team over the top, someone like Kane is a good bet to help you do that.

We just talk and im goi g in annother step... just imagine bring both of kane and toews ( with double retention) in the team because if kane is ready to waive for toronto, Toews will waive it too easily to follow his good friend

Bunting-matthews-marner
Jarnkrok-Jt-nylandrr
Engval-Toews-kane
Zar-kampf-holmberg

Matthews-marner-jt-bunting-rielly pp1

toews-kane-nylander-holmberg-sandin pp 2

Imagine against tampa if matthews/marner outplayed kucherov line like they did last playoff

Jt/nylander just be even against point line

Toews/kane line outplayed paul line

Leafs are in business against boston

Matthews line able to play even against bergeron line, jt line outplayed krejci line and toews line outplayed coyle line...

Leafs can win all the way

 

[1specter]

Lol @ Barbashev return being pegged around a 1st. This market is ludicrous, but go figure that when the Leafs are contenders it's a sellers market and when the Leafs were tanking it was a buyer's market. Remember when Lou couldn't even trade PA Parenteau despite him scoring at a 40 pt pace on a cheap 1 year deal?

 

[LeafGrief]

Kampf is not a valuable depth guy. It is not that tough or expensive to acquire defensive players with zero offense and the risk of losing him should have no impact on bigger moves. Bunting is another story but the idea of being hesitant on acquiring Timo Meier because we're worried about re-signing David Kampf is ridiculous.

Kampf is the defensively responsible 3c that we spent years looking for. Finding one who could play the minutes he does at his price point took us years and we were clamouring for him the entire time. I remember trade proposals for Jason Dickinson. Kampf is literally our best bottom sixer and is the 3c on a top5 team in the league. That he is not valuable is an outrageous statement.

Bunting is far more important than Kampf, but the complete lack of consideration for the fit of bottom six and role players is a problem that has plagued this team the entire Matthews era. We should be hesitant to acquire Meier if he's going to mean that we have to run Pontus Holmberg or a dumpster special at 3c. We are paying 40m to four guys because they're supposed to carry players like Jarnkrok to big results, leaving cap space for depth in the forward group. Spending 49m on 5 players and having a shoestring budget bottom six who get caved every night is not the move.

It doesn't mean trading Nylander in the summer. Been shown over and over that it is possible to keep both for at least next season.

There is a great deal of space between what is possible and what makes a good hockey team. If you want Pontus Holmberg at 3c and a 4th line of Marlies so that we can have both Meier and Nylander, I guess that counts as possible. I think it's funny that people complain about how this team doesn't win in the playoffs and then write posts about how we should go even further into being a top heavy team. Acquiring Meier doesn't necessarily mean trading Nylander, but it means letting additional value walk out the door as UFA's and running a forward core with no depth. Frankly, that sounds like an atrocious plan to me. We don't win a cup by having more 90 point players than the other team.

The Avs won the cup with four big forwards, Cale Makar, a strong defense and great depth.
The Lightning won two cups with elite depth, Hedman, Kucherov, and Stamkos one year and Point the other, not to mention the best goalie in the league.

The Leafs are supposed to win a cup with five forwards, Morgan Rielly, no forward depth and Colorado goaltending? Bleh, it's astonishing to me how little hockey fans actually appreciate depth for forwards or defense. And spare me from those rediculous "all in" narratives. This is hockey, not poker, and we'll win by being a competitive team over a long period of time.

 

[Sypher04]

I don't follow.

If they want to get even worse, getting him off their team as quickly as possible should be more value than asking for a dramatically higher price than is reasonable. Just ask for what you’re actually looking for, spare everyone the games, and get the deal done

 

[kb]

Makes sense with Rielly basically taking up the offensive LD role for the next 8 years.

Sorry if I misunderstood, you think Nylander + Matthews raise will total 4 million dollars? I dont see that to be honest. Matthews got almost 12 million as a RFA without winning anything but a Calder. He now will have multiple Rockets, a Hart and is a UFA. I think he likely wants 15 million which would be a 3.4 million increase already. Nylander probably wants around 10 million which is another 3+ million.

One of my big worries is these type of moves result in Lily being bridged to save cap in the short term. His bridge then would likely end around when Marner and co would need raises so may price himself out of town. Personally I would lock lily down for 8 years asap as those deals for young players seem to be working out quite well these days

IMO....there is no real precedence for $15 million - which is 20% more than any current NHL player makes - especially after this down season by his standards.. $14 million is probably more like it. Nylander is not going to get more than his comparables, who seem to all be in the $8 to $9 million range. So IMO that's the raise in the $4 million range.

That's exactly it.....Rielly is basically taking the offensive LD, so Sandin might be traded for a young more stay at home shutdown type.

I mean, they can throw $6 million+ at Liljegren with Brodie expiring and trimming the 3rd line a bit. Can always trade for a expiring F or D with retention to help out with the cap. But here's the thing. The cap is scheduled to go up by quite a bit a few years down the road, so I am less worried about bridging.

Plus the Leafs have the best in the biz at cap gymnastics. lol If they think it's doable, they will do it. If not, then they won't.

Kampf is the defensively responsible 3c that we spent years looking for. Finding one who could play the minutes he does at his price point took us years and we were clamouring for him the entire time. I remember trade proposals for Jason Dickinson. Kampf is literally our best bottom sixer and is the 3c on a top5 team in the league. That he is not valuable is an outrageous statement.

Bunting is far more important than Kampf, but the complete lack of consideration for the fit of bottom six and role players is a problem that has plagued this team the entire Matthews era. We should be hesitant to acquire Meier if he's going to mean that we have to run Pontus Holmberg or a dumpster special at 3c. We are paying 40m to four guys because they're supposed to carry players like Jarnkrok to big results, leaving cap space for depth in the forward group. Spending 49m on 5 players and having a shoestring budget bottom six who get caved every night is not the move.


There is a great deal of space between what is possible and what makes a good hockey team. If you want Pontus Holmberg at 3c and a 4th line of Marlies so that we can have both Meier and Nylander, I guess that counts as possible. I think it's funny that people complain about how this team doesn't win in the playoffs and then write posts about how we should go even further into being a top heavy team. Acquiring Meier doesn't necessarily mean trading Nylander, but it means letting additional value walk out the door as UFA's and running a forward core with no depth. Frankly, that sounds like an atrocious plan to me. We don't win a cup by having more 90 point players than the other team.

The Avs won the cup with four big forwards, Cale Makar, a strong defense and great depth.
The Lightning won two cups with elite depth, Hedman, Kucherov, and Stamkos one year and Point the other, not to mention the best goalie in the league.

The Leafs are supposed to win a cup with five forwards, Morgan Rielly, no forward depth and Colorado goaltending? Bleh, it's astonishing to me how little hockey fans actually appreciate depth for forwards or defense. And spare me from those rediculous "all in" narratives. This is hockey, not poker, and we'll win by being a competitive team over a long period of time.

So you didn't read the part about the Leafs having up to $4 million for #3C if #3 LW is $1 million.

That roster had 21 players and allowed for $ 5 million total for #3 LW and #3C. That goes up to $5.8 million if the Leafs run a 20 player roster.

I'm rather confused as to why it's not doable.

Did you actually read it?

 

[weems]

I would definitely say Kampf is a pretty influential player in us becoming a much improved defensive squad.

He starts by far the most in the defensive zone (all situations) and it's not even close.

 

[hamzarocks]

Mikey Anderson signs for 8 years and 4.1M

Lilijgren should come +500k/1M if that on the same term

 

[ACC1224]

If they want to get even worse, getting him off their team as quickly as possible should be more value than asking for a dramatically higher price than is reasonable. Just ask for what you’re actually looking for, spare everyone the games, and get the deal done

Isn't he being scratched?

 

[Sypher04]

Isn't he being scratched?

That’s a fair point, forgot that. Doesn’t usually happen that way

 

[Ziggdiezan]

IMO....there is no real precedence for $15 million - which is 20% more than any current NHL player makes - especially after this down season by his standards.. $14 million is probably more like it. Nylander is not going to get more than his comparables, who seem to all be in the $8 to $9 million range. So IMO that's the raise in the $4 million range.

That's exactly it.....Rielly is basically taking the offensive LD, so Sandin might be traded for a young more stay at home shutdown type.

I mean, they can throw $6 million+ at Liljegren with Brodie expiring and trimming the 3rd line a bit. Can always trade for a expiring F or D with retention to help out with the cap. But here's the thing. The cap is scheduled to go up by quite a bit a few years down the road, so I am less worried about bridging.

Plus the Leafs have the best in the biz at cap gymnastics. lol If they think it's doable, they will do it. If not, then they won't.


So you didn't read the part about the Leafs having up to $4 million for #3C if #3 LW is $1 million.

That roster had 21 players and allowed for $ 5 million total for #3 LW and #3C. That goes up to $5.8 million if the Leafs run a 20 player roster.

I'm rather confused as to why it's not doable.

Did you actually read it?

Wasn't his rumored ask on an 8 year deal close to 15 million previously as an RFA? With the big cap increase coming i think he will likely get closer to 15 million than you'd want. Nylander is a tricky one but I dont see any chance of him taking 8 million. Someone will overpay in free agency for him if it gets there. I hope you are right though lol. I'm sure Dubas will have a decent idea of what those 2 guys will come in at so can plan accordingly.

Although I'm a big fan of certain aspects of Sandin his small statue coupled with below average speed is a hard package to overcome as a defender.

I see a likely cap increase with replacing Brodie to be honest. Need to get a top 4 RD around the time of the big cap jump so getting one under 5 million AAV may not be possible. Also going to have to replace Gio as well for likely multiples times higher cap hit than he is getting paid.

I see every agent building in the projected big cap jump into their asks so I dont see it helping that much. Personally I'd rather just spend Meier's cap hit on beefing up the third line with some actual good players who can produce in the playoffs than stacking the top 6 with even more cap

 

[TimeZone]

The Leafs could offer Knies, Sandin and 2 1sts and the Devils could say hold my beer and send a better offer.

I guess that is contingent on if the Devils truly want him. But in this case, it would have to be an overpay to beat out the Devils whether they want him or whether the Sharks use the Devils as leverage.

Okay, but I doubt the Devils are including Hughes in a package, Nemec? Maybe, but I'm not convinced on that either, maybe if he comes extended.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Kampf is the defensively responsible 3c that we spent years looking for. Finding one who could play the minutes he does at his price point took us years and we were clamouring for him the entire time. I remember trade proposals for Jason Dickinson. Kampf is literally our best bottom sixer and is the 3c on a top5 team in the league. That he is not valuable is an outrageous statement.

Bunting is far more important than Kampf, but the complete lack of consideration for the fit of bottom six and role players is a problem that has plagued this team the entire Matthews era. We should be hesitant to acquire Meier if he's going to mean that we have to run Pontus Holmberg or a dumpster special at 3c. We are paying 40m to four guys because they're supposed to carry players like Jarnkrok to big results, leaving cap space for depth in the forward group. Spending 49m on 5 players and having a shoestring budget bottom six who get caved every night is not the move.

We spent years looking for a defensively responsible 3C? I must remember things differently. I remember when Kadri was the 3C, then Kerfoot, then they signed Kampf. The only other centre they signed in the interim was Joe Thornton. This management group were never trying to build a 3rd line around a pure defensive centre until they signed Kampf. I don't remember Jason Dickinson but I do remember a lot of Johan Larsson proposals. There are always going to be guys like that available for a modest price. This summer there will be articles with a few analytical darling defensive centres who will sign cheaply, just like Kampf was featured in back in 2021. Role players on our team tend to get overpaid in the market because of how much attention we draw and this is not the type of player you should be fighting over.

Even the notion that he's the 3c and not the 4c is a good illustration of why we're struggling to get good production out of the bottom 6. We have too many guys who don't bring anything offensively and he's the poster boy. He should definitely have a role but it shouldn't be normal 3c minutes 5v5.

 

[LeafGrief]

IMO....there is no real precedence for $15 million - which is 20% more than any current NHL player makes - especially after this down season by his standards.. $14 million is probably more like it. Nylander is not going to get more than his comparables, who seem to all be in the $8 to $9 million range. So IMO that's the raise in the $4 million range.

That's exactly it.....Rielly is basically taking the offensive LD, so Sandin might be traded for a young more stay at home shutdown type.

I mean, they can throw $6 million+ at Liljegren with Brodie expiring and trimming the 3rd line a bit. Can always trade for a expiring F or D with retention to help out with the cap. But here's the thing. The cap is scheduled to go up by quite a bit a few years down the road, so I am less worried about bridging.

Plus the Leafs have the best in the biz at cap gymnastics. lol If they think it's doable, they will do it. If not, then they won't.


So you didn't read the part about the Leafs having up to $4 million for #3C if #3 LW is $1 million.

That roster had 21 players and allowed for $ 5 million total for #3 LW and #3C. That goes up to $5.8 million if the Leafs run a 20 player roster.

I'm rather confused as to why it's not doable.

Did you actually read it?

I guess you didn't read the part where I describe that there is a difference between something being doable and a good idea. Spending 7.1m on the entire third line and 9.2m on the entire bottom six is "doable", but my entire argument is that it is a bad idea. Not to mention you're now rushing our best prospect into a role that he might not be ready for, relying on Dubas to get a triple kill when he goes dumpster diving, spending additional futures to fill the holes that can't be filled by UFA's, and letting all of our current UFA's walk.

Just because you can doesn't mean you should. That team would be demonstrably worse than what we have this year.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Wasn't his rumored ask on an 8 year deal close to 15 million previously as an RFA? With the big cap increase coming i think he will likely get closer to 15 million than you'd want. Nylander is a tricky one but I dont see any chance of him taking 8 million. Someone will overpay in free agency for him if it gets there. I hope you are right though lol. I'm sure Dubas will have a decent idea of what those 2 guys will come in at so can plan accordingly.

Although I'm a big fan of certain aspects of Sandin his small statue coupled with below average speed is a hard package to overcome as a defender.

I see a likely cap increase with replacing Brodie to be honest. Need to get a top 4 RD around the time of the big cap jump so getting one under 5 million AAV may not be possible. Also going to have to replace Gio as well for likely multiples times higher cap hit than he is getting paid.

I see every agent building in the projected big cap jump into their asks so I dont see it helping that much. Personally I'd rather just spend Meier's cap hit on beefing up the third line with some actual good players who can produce in the playoffs than stacking the top 6 with even more cap

You can't put together a competitive team with Matthews taking up 15M, Marner will ask for the same and if he doesn't get it, he walks.

So 2 players eating 30M of 95-100M cap?

Greed.

 

[SprDaVE]

Mikey Anderson signs for 8 years and 4.1M

Lilijgren should come +500k/1M if that on the same term

I would have given that to Liljegren more or less. It's a decent deal with risk but could really pay off.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I would have given that to Liljegren more or less. It's a decent deal with risk but could really pay off.

I was thinking 4.25M for 6-8 years in the off-season but didn't think our cap would allow for it. Easily able to slot him in to your 2nd pairing RD spot for the foreseeable future if that is his next contract.

 

[kb]

Wasn't his rumored ask on an 8 year deal close to 15 million previously as an RFA? With the big cap increase coming i think he will likely get closer to 15 million than you'd want. Nylander is a tricky one but I dont see any chance of him taking 8 million. Someone will overpay in free agency for him if it gets there. I hope you are right though lol. I'm sure Dubas will have a decent idea of what those 2 guys will come in at so can plan accordingly.

Although I'm a big fan of certain aspects of Sandin his small statue coupled with below average speed is a hard package to overcome as a defender.

I see a likely cap increase with replacing Brodie to be honest. Need to get a top 4 RD around the time of the big cap jump so getting one under 5 million AAV may not be possible. Also going to have to replace Gio as well for likely multiples times higher cap hit than he is getting paid.

I see every agent building in the projected big cap jump into their asks so I dont see it helping that much. Personally I'd rather just spend Meier's cap hit on beefing up the third line with some actual good players who can produce in the playoffs.

I still can't see Matthews going 20% over the league. There is no precedence for a jump that big....his current cap hit had all those projections built in - he is being paid for what he is doing now, as that was the expectation based on his AAV (second at the time). So he is at his peak now and for the next few seasons. He didn't break out and force a much higher salary this time around. I will be surprised if he goes beyond $14 million. And Nylander @ $8.5-$9 is ballpark - he has no awards, nor all-star selections. So he has very little leverage as compared to a lot of his contemporaries.

I see the same issue in Sandin. You can be smaller if you have speed to match, or you can be slower if you have the size to compensate and play a safer game. Being smaller and slower is just not a good recipe.

There is only one season to worry about as far as the cap goes, and that is 2024-25. The rest is in very good shape.

It will be up to the team, but I see a clear pathway to adding Meier, and then retaining him - if the Leafs choose to go in that direction, they can definitely make it work.

 

[Knies iT]

Mikey Anderson is basically what I hoped Dermott would become.

Modern mobile shutdown D with surprising physicality. For some reason, Dermott’s physicality just slowly disappeared. He was one of the better hip checkers in the OHL/AHL. Too bad he was made of glass and prone to brutal decision making errors.

 

[LeafGrief]

We spent years looking for a defensively responsible 3C? I must remember things differently. I remember when Kadri was the 3C, then Kerfoot, then they signed Kampf. The only other centre they signed in the interim was Joe Thornton. This management group were never trying to build a 3rd line around a pure defensive centre until they signed Kampf. I don't remember Jason Dickinson but I do remember a lot of Johan Larsson proposals. There are always going to be guys like that available for a modest price. This summer there will be articles with a few analytical darling defensive centres who will sign cheaply, just like Kampf was featured in back in 2021. Role players on our team tend to get overpaid in the market because of how much attention we draw and this is not the type of player you should be fighting over.

Even the notion that he's the 3c and not the 4c is a good illustration of why we're struggling to get good production out of the bottom 6. We have too many guys who don't bring anything offensively and he's the poster boy. He should definitely have a role but it shouldn't be normal 3c minutes 5v5.

In 17-18, Bozak was our 3c. 18-19 was the single year of Matthews-Tavares-Kadri, then 19-20 and 20-21 were both years of Kerfoot as our 3c. Kampf came last year. If the Oilers want to give Kampf 5m or something stupid, then yeah we're going to let him walk, but the point remains that if we just let quality depth walk out the door every year we're just going to bleed assets replacing them. Forgive me for not caring about the analytical darlings when our team has been a graveyard of their careers for most of the last decade. The good ones, like Kampf, stick, while the Petans, Malgins, and Lindholms of the league just fade out.

If you want better production out of the bottom six, replace the wingers. The centre is the guy who's job it is to be the defensive engine of the line, and while you are keen to point out our bottom six can't score, the great news is that our bottom six is terrific defensively and our third line can go up against any matchup and hold their own. As for Kampf's role, he's the everyday 3c on a top5 team in the league.

We're struggling to get production out of our bottom six because our fourth line don't even make full ELC money and our 3.5m 3rd line LW can't score to save his life this year. If we had any money to spend on fourth line depth rather than just shoestring budget rookies and dumpster projects that's where you'd start to see actual bottom six production. This is why adding yet another highly priced top6 winger is the exact antithesis of what you supposedly want this team to be. You seem to want scoring depth, so why is the goal to spend as much money on as few players as possible?

 

[Pyrophorus]

...or anyone else.

Kane is 34, but this is his first season while he is under PPG.
Is it Hawk malaise or is it really the back 9 holes for him.
Could he disco it up, if he comes here?

ROR is 2 years younger, a C, another Conn Smythe winner
Coming off his 1st serious injury, still 3 more goals than Kane. Still less points though.
Wins faceoffs and a more of a 200' player than Kane.

Anyone else?