Rumor: Trade Rumor Thread XIII

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As long as he keeps drinking milk he shouldn't see Osteoporosis until his 60's. Pronger was playing quite happily at 36 and had a very rough and tumble style. There are a lot of reasons to not toss big money at Danny G, but I'm not worried about his contract length.
You know, Girardi was shown on 24/7 a lot, and not once did I see him with a glass of milk. Alarming?

Pronger did slow down a lot in his 30s, but he was able to keep his level of play up because he's a highly-skilled defenseman. That doesn't settle my nerves about Girardi.
 
I think Cally should get the Clarkson deal with the same bonus structure. Front loaded with nice signing bonuses, and a bump in salary. I'd take Cally at 5.8.

5.8 our of an increasing cap isn't going to hurt. HRR will benefit from expansion and world cup, and the league has delivered on revenue growth. Those of you that pay for tickets certainly know that.

If Cally and G fit into next year's cap (and they most certainly will), then you lock those minutes up, because you are going to downgrade to replace them. (IE Lose)

The more protracted this process is and with other teams locking up their UFAs, the more expensive Cally and G will get.

There is a reason why winning teams like Chicago and Boston do these long term deals, and also re-sign guys with a year remaining.

Everyone, including Callahan, knows hes a better player than Clarkson.

So, why should he accept a Clarkson deal?
 
"The cap is increasing" is a pretty terrible reason to give out a bad contract. The cap increased $19.9 million over the life of Scott Gomez' deal, did that make it ok.

No matter how much the cap increases, it won't match the rate at which players in their 30s depreciate.
 
After reading this continuing thread, it hasn't changed my mind at all that Cally and Dan G should be moved.

When people start throwing around "intangibles" for a guy to get seriously overpaid, that is a serious red flag.

I agree with you, when it comes to getting a player. But when it comes to keeping a player? I don't know, my experience is almost the opposite.
 
You know, Girardi was shown on 24/7 a lot, and not once did I see him with a glass of milk. Alarming?

Pronger did slow down a lot in his 30s, but he was able to keep his level of play up because he's a highly-skilled defenseman. That doesn't settle my nerves about Girardi.

There are plenty of guys in the league now that I think Girardi will probably look like in his late thirties, and would be happy if he does. Willie Mitchell, Scuderi, Chara, Philips. Plenty of physical shut down defensemen have been able to be effective minute eaters in their later years. And really, if we're looking at 6 million AAV, possibly, for Girardi, in six years, when he's 35, what's that going to buy in open market with the cap going up like it is?
 
No matter how much the cap increases, it won't match the rate at which players in their 30s depreciate.

This feels like video game logic. You shouldn't be afraid of guys in their 30s, especially guys who haven't even gotten to 30 yet. There value doesn't decline every day past 30. The latter half of that decade I agree usually spells a decline for most guys, but especially for really good players, with great attitudes, who take great care of themselves, it seems silly to assume their going to get that much worse that quickly. Part of the reason the Gomez contract was so bad was how quickly he collapsed, same with Drury. Some players do that--Danny Heatley--but a lot don't.
 
Callahan, I think will deteriorate.

Girardi is another story. He's been healthy for the entirety of his career. Yes, he plays a demanding style, but not every player that plays a demanding style breaks down. Besides, it's not as if Girardi is 33/34, or even 32 - he's still relatively young and in his prime.

I am not opposed to re-signing him as much as I am Callahan, but I am not opposed to moving G, either.
 
Fair point.

I did an unofficial looking into of NHL ages once, seemed to me most player decline right around 33-34-35. I mean like really decline to the point they are looking like they should retire. Outliers and such but I do not expect too much from players beyond that point.
 
Just want this trade freeze to take effect already. Don't want to continuously talk about this.
 
I feel like it's the opposite, because it's, you know, based in reality.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/1/21/1261318/nhl-points-per-game-peak-age

Well that settles it. Why are we signing guys past 25, they're only going downhill.

I don't think that chart tells the full story. You have to recognize the type of player you're talking about. Girardi and Callahan aren't the same as Brian Boyle. Callahan is an excellent 2-Way winger, a captain, a soon to be two time olympian. Girardi was an all-star who has consistently been a top pairing defensemen for several years. Also, both of these guys have grossly exceeded expectations at every point in their careers--a quality that, I believe should influence one's predictions as to their impending decline, and that won't show up on a chart. In any case, I didn't mean for my original comment to seem condescending, I just think, in reality, as you say, there are plenty of examples of players who thrive past 25, not necessarily improving, but also finding other ways to contribute and remain effective players, which in a world where the cap is increasing make the immediate payoff of their presence well worth whatever decline will follow. In the case of Callahan it's easy to look a Morrow and say Callahan will just fall apart later on, but for every Morrow there's another guy who plays a similar style and had a much better progression: Iginla, Doan, Dupuis, Kunitz to name a few.
 
Well that settles it. Why are we signing guys past 25, they're only going downhill.

I don't think that chart tells the full story. You have to recognize the type of player you're talking about. Girardi and Callahan aren't the same as Brian Boyle. Callahan is an excellent 2-Way winger, a captain, a soon to be two time olympian. Girardi was an all-star who has consistently been a top pairing defensemen for several years. Also, both of these guys have grossly exceeded expectations at every point in their careers--a quality that, I believe should influence one's predictions as to their impending decline, and that won't show up on a chart. In any case, I didn't mean for my original comment to seem condescending, I just think, in reality, as you say, there are plenty of examples of players who thrive past 25, not necessarily improving, but also finding other ways to contribute and remain effective players, which in a world where the cap is increasing make the immediate payoff of their presence well worth whatever decline will follow. In the case of Callahan it's easy to look a Morrow and say Callahan will just fall apart later on, but for every Morrow there's another guy who plays a similar style and had a much better progression: Iginla, Doan, Dupuis, Kunitz to name a few.
I'm not saying teams shouldn't have players older than 25. I'm saying they should be very careful about giving 7 year contracts to 30 somethings.

Funny how people age better when playing with Crosby, hey?

Iginla and Doan are both 210+ lbs. Still, it's pretty exceptional that they've been able to keep they're play as high as they have. Iginla has had to tone down his physical play in the past few years.
 
Girardi is 29.... lets see what he looks like at ages 31-35.

Comparing Callahan's hit totals to Drury's is misleading. The Rangers track hits a lot differently than Buffalo (notice how Drury's Hits/GP increased 75% once signing with the Rangers?).

Both of them played together from 2007 through 2011 as Rangers then:

2007-08 Drury 82 games played 46 hits 76 blocks
2007-08 Callahan 52 games played 139 hits 25 blocks

2008-09 Drury 81 games played 42 hits 90 blocks
2008-09 Callahan 81 games played 265 hits 32 blocks

2009-10 Drury 77 games played 67 hits 97 blocks
2009-10 Callahan 77 games played 285 hits 81 blocks

2010-11 Drury 24 games played 19 hits 12 blocks
2010-11 Callahan 60 games played 224 hits 77 blocks

For that time period:

Drury total games played 264 hits 174 blocks 275
Callahan total games played 270 hits 913 blocks 215

Callahan has 108 hits this year by the way in 37 games which is about 3 a night. He's not getting as much ice time as in previous years. Part of the reason why is the emergence this year of Mats Zuccarello playing the right wing. I don't know if I'm ready to say that he's slowing down the way he's played up until this point in his career. Pro-rated over an 82 game season he'd be around 235 hits this year and about 77 blocks.
 
Callahan has 108 hits this year by the way in 37 games which is about 3 a night. He's not getting as much ice time as in previous years. Part of the reason why is the emergence this year of Mats Zuccarello playing the right wing. I don't know if I'm ready to say that he's slowing down the way he's played up until this point in his career. Pro-rated over an 82 game season he'd be around 235 hits this year and about 77 blocks.
I'm not saying he's slowing down now. I'm saying the chances of his play depreciating rapidly in the middle of a 6 -7 year contract is very high.

Drury total games played 264 hits 174 blocks 275
Callahan total games played 270 hits 913 blocks 215
Why on earth would you list it like this?
 
I'm not saying teams shouldn't have players older than 25. I'm saying they should be very careful about giving 7 year contracts to 30 somethings.

Funny how people age better when playing with Crosby, hey?

Iginla and Doan are both 210+ lbs. Still, it's pretty exceptional that they've been able to keep they're play as high as they have. Iginla has had to tone down his physical play in the past few years.

Firstly, the neither Callahan nor Girardi fit that fist bit as neither are even thirty yet. In fact that's very much the exaggeration I'm trying to move away from.

I don't disagree that it's risky, but I think the risk of signing Girardi and Callahan is emphasized much more here than the reward. Sure you can pick apart every example on every side and show why it's not like Callahan, or why it doesn't apply. I would have no problem arguing that Kunitz is a top 6 player on most teams in the league regardless of having Crosby as his center, and I could point out that Morrow last season was having a terrible year in Dallas, moves to Pittsburgh and turns it around meaning that even a player in decline can find a place and raise their game with a good team. If we're certain that in five or six years that we'll be awful and so will Callahan, then I'll still point to Morrow, since he was traded at the deadline to contender despite his horrible season. In any case, I'm not suggesting that Callahan definitely won't fall apart the way Drury did. But I think it's equally unfair to assume he will.
 
I know people will say otherwise, but I honestly think a lot of the sentiment to keep Callahan and Girardi stems from the fact that they're both homegrown blue collar types and, as a result, many posters feel a very strong emotional connection to them.

Which, by the way, is completely legitimate - it's part of being a fan. But I don't want Sather to act like a fan. I want Sather to act like an informed, intelligent hockey GM. (Asking a lot, I know.)
 
One player whose name I would have never predicted to be even possibly in the mix before the season is that of New York Rangers captain Ryan Callahan.

But he’s a pending UFA July 1 and so far contract talks have not gone well at all, a source told ESPN.com Tuesday.

All of which led to some rumblings that the Rangers are exploring the trade market in case talks don’t produce a contract extension before the March 5 trade deadline. My colleague Darren Dreger also reported on Callahan’s trade possibility during our Insider Trading segment Tuesday evening on TSN in Canada.

You can imagine the reaction when Rangers GM Glen Sather called some teams over the past week to inform them that Callahan might be available.

"That’s a pretty big name," one Western Conference source said.

Still, it seems hard to fathom Callahan moving but it appears the Rangers are intent to not lose such a prized asset for nothing July 1 if they can’t get him signed. So the clock is ticking.

Stay tuned ...

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/...coming-up-in-trade-talk-pens-have-extra-d-men

Sanity. The Rangers can not under any circumstances allow Callahan to walk out the door for nothing. The Rangers have made the calls to other teams.
 
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