Rumor: Trade Rumor/Speculation Thread XIX: The Olympic Freeze

[BarbaraAlphanse]

Agree you naturally have to be cautious not to fall to in love with stats at the CHL level. Grachev had Duchene and Hodgson to play with. He was also bigger and stronger than most of his competition. So when he reached the pro ranks he couldn't just barrel through everyone and the Whale Pack wanted him to start developing his defensive game.

St. Croix i was never really high on. Smallish, all offense.

Have to look at the whole package and traits.

Which is why I think someone like Duclair, who apparently has the smarts to complement his skills, might have a better chance of making the NHL squad and maybe even sticking.

Someone like Skjei has the same probability of reaching the NHL, in my opinion. Smarts match the skills.

Nieves? Don't know much about him but he seems to have taken a step backwards these last few years at Mich. He was drafted because he had a high ceiling. The risk was he also had a low floor. Looks like he's inching closer to the floor.

 

[SupersonicMonkey*]

Duclair would have been higher, right? Well, the same was said for Esposito, Macfarlane and Kabanov.

There's a reason why guy's drop. NHL front offices have moles everywhere. They know what a draftees habits are because the scouts talk to the stick boys, they talk to the trainers, they talk to former teammates at other levels.

People always hear the same BS when guys are drafted well below where they should have been...."I'm going to use this as motivation to be the best player of them all....blah blah blah"

Idiots said that about Seth Jones....how the other three teams are going to regret passing on him. Hmmmmm. Nope. Not now they arent.

Seth Jones is a 19 year old defenseman, who can log 20 minutes. He's also producing offense.

Eventually Seth Jones is going to contend for the Norris annually.

 

[Trxjw]

Skjei and Nieves "lack anything between the ears"? Fast? Lindberg? Miller?

Very false to suggest that.

In fact, i would go out on a limb and suggest that Brady Skjei is one of the more intelligent players the Rangers have drafted in decades. He may never develop the offense, but his positional play, fundamentals, and physical abilities are very high.

What he's referencing is the point I made where Duclair has the ability to process the game at pace, and that's where Grachev struggled and where St. Croix has been struggling. You can be the most skilled player in the game, but if you can't make decisions in a split second, you're never going to have success in the pro's. I said before that MSC might be the most purely talented offensive player in the system (pre-Buchnevich mind you) but that if he can't better his decision making ability, his game just won't translate.

I think Lindberg and Fast may be the two smartest prospects we have in the system. They're going to be NHLers. It's just a matter of how much offensive impact they'll have. Miller has the tools, but he also tries to force the play quite often in the AHL.

Skjei is also a good player. I have high hopes for him, but right now he's bigger, faster and stronger than a lot of guys he's playing against. He doesn't have to read the play as much because he can rely on his recovery speed. That won't be true in the NHL. McIlrath is having similar issues because he was so much bigger than everyone in Junior that now he has to learn how to make better decisions on the ice. I think we'll see similar adjustment problems with Skjei, but that doesn't mean he lacks upside.

I don't think Nieves has the drive to be a successful NHLer. That's just my opinion though. Great tools, but he doesn't put forth the effort needed to be an impact player.

 

[Mikos87]

Eh, I would argue that decisionmaking is the one thing that's holding Miller back right now. Doesn't necessarily make him an unintelligent player, but he's not in the same conversation with Fast, Lindberg, Hrivik and Allen in HFD when it comes to hockey IQ.

Decision making with the puck yeah for sure, he overhandles, but it's not as if he is lost positionally or can't make reads. Offensive consistency with his decision making isn't up to NHL speed yet, but it certainly is at the AHL level.

Miller needs to play with similarly skilled speedy wingers with their sticks lined up for him to rack up the points. He was a top line center and scorer for the USA team that won gold just 13 months ago, and is a PPG producer at the AHL level.

The only thing holding him back is being quicker to make decisions so he is ahead of the play. The kid's already there at the AHL level, it just needs to get faster for the NHL level.

I think a line of Hagelin-Miller-Fast will feast on 3rd pair D next season.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Duclair would have been higher, right? Well, the same was said for Esposito, Macfarlane and Kabanov.

There's a reason why guy's drop. NHL front offices have moles everywhere. They know what a draftees habits are because the scouts talk to the stick boys, they talk to the trainers, they talk to former teammates at other levels.

People always hear the same BS when guys are drafted well below where they should have been...."I'm going to use this as motivation to be the best player of them all....blah blah blah"

Okaaaay, that's true. And most of them then bomb out, as you imply with the names you listed. But, every year there are a couple that recover and people say "crap, he was ranked as a first liner going into the draft. Why didn't we pick him when he fell to the third?"

It's the exception, not the rule, but what Duclair and Buchnevich have both done this year are about all you could ask of them to show that they may be in that category. Heck, even Tambellini has been performing since he left NoDak.

Idiots said that about Seth Jones....how the other three teams are going to regret passing on him. Hmmmmm. Nope. Not now they arent.

You're writing him off already? He's in the NHL and playing well, for crying out loud.

I'm not really sure what you're on about with your last couple of posts, GWOW. What is the point you're trying to make?

 

[Dimz92]

Duclair would have been higher, right? Well, the same was said for Esposito, Macfarlane and Kabanov.

There's a reason why guy's drop. NHL front offices have moles everywhere. They know what a draftees habits are because the scouts talk to the stick boys, they talk to the trainers, they talk to former teammates at other levels.

People always hear the same BS when guys are drafted well below where they should have been...."I'm going to use this as motivation to be the best player of them all....blah blah blah"

Idiots said that about Seth Jones....how the other three teams are going to regret passing on him. Hmmmmm. Nope. Not now they arent.

Did he really just say that about Seth Jones and compare him falling in draft To Duclair... my O my. That will do it for me tonight

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

Okaaaay, that's true. And most of them then bomb out, as you imply with the names you listed. But, every year there are a couple that recover and people say "crap, he was ranked as a first liner going into the draft. Why didn't we pick him when he fell to the third?" It's the exception, not the rule, but what Duclair and Buchnevich have both done this year are about all you could ask of them to show that they may be in that category. Heck, even Tambellini has been performing since he left NoDak.


You're writing him off already? He's in the NHL and playing well, for crying out loud.

I'm not really sure what you're on about with your last couple of posts, GWOW. What is the point you're trying to make?

I'm struggling following too.

I think he's trying to temper our expectations, which we should do, but I think his logic is very flawed.

 

[Trxjw]

Let's try and bring this thread back on topic. All of the prospect discussion isn't really related to the topic at hand.

 

[Mikos87]

What he's referencing is the point I made where Duclair has the ability to process the game at pace, and that's where Grachev struggled and where St. Croix has been struggling. You can be the most skilled player in the game, but if you can't make decisions in a split second, you're never going to have success in the pro's. I said before that MSC might be the most purely talented offensive player in the system (pre-Buchnevich mind you) but that if he can't better his decision making ability, his game just won't translate.

Duclair is a skilled player with a grinder's mindset. He can play anytime of game. Scored a lot of grinder type net front goals as well as those flashy Gaborik type goals. The Duke doesn't have a problem mucking it up if he has to. Check out his highlight reel and you'll see him score every which way. He just wants it more than some of the other prospects I've seen. Plays with the same sort of tenacity as a Dubinsky or Callahan, except he doesn't finish every check.

Around 70% of the goals scored in the NHL are within 10 feet of the net, its a little less in juniors since the quality of the goaltending isn't as high, nor are defensive zone systems, but no prospect is going to score at a goal a game pace without going into the dirty areas. Tony D has no problem going into the dirty areas.

Boo Nieves is a soft perimeter player that plays a very passive game... screams loser in my opinion... 1 G in 22 games vs 49 in 53 says it all. One plays hungry, the other is an afterthought.

On MSC, I haven't seen a lot of him since he hasn't been in the A this year, but I'd hold off on dismissing him until he plays a season in the A. MSC played for a powerhouse program with Oil Kings during his time there and performed very well as a top 6 center for a winning program that had a lot of deep playoff runs. That can't be said for some of the other prospects, but there's no shame in developing in the ECHL.

Ryan Bourque would have been better off playing the ECHL as a top line player the last 2 years as he was a complete non-factor until this season. Now it's probably too little too late. He'll be in providence next year playing with his brother. Not worth the SPC in my mind.

 

[Mikos87]

You're writing him off already? He's in the NHL and playing well, for crying out loud.

I'm not really sure what you're on about with your last couple of posts, GWOW. What is the point you're trying to make?

Defenseman take a while to develop. Seth Jones will be a star. People were writing off Victor Hedman for not being a complete defenseman.

The kid learned to do his job first, and added the offense as his game matured. Seth Jones already plays 20 min a night and he's only going to get better. He will be a monster as he matures physically and gains experience.

Remember fellas Nashville hasn't had a starting NHL goaltender this season... Seth Jones would be lauded if Rinne was playing for Nashville.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

In terms of trading Duclair... I wouldn't. Our prospect pool is thin, we need more prospects, not to be trading them at their purported "peak value".

 

[Matt4776]

Which is why I think someone like Duclair, who apparently has the smarts to complement his skills, might have a better chance of making the NHL squad and maybe even sticking.

Someone like Skjei has the same probability of reaching the NHL, in my opinion. Smarts match the skills.

Nieves? Don't know much about him but he seems to have taken a step backwards these last few years at Mich. He was drafted because he had a high ceiling. The risk was he also had a low floor. Looks like he's inching closer to the floor.

You're talking out of your ass. Nieves was only drafted two years ago. His last year at Michigan was a phenomenal freshman year.

Coming from someone that watches him live on a daily basis, I would be surprised if he doesn't become at least a good 3rd line forward.

 

[Mikos87]

In terms of trading Duclair... I wouldn't. Our prospect pool is thin, we need more prospects, not to be trading them at their purported "peak value".

Yeah I mean Duclair can absolutely fly and handle the puck at those speeds. That ability is going to translate into the pros. This isn't a Simon Gamanche we are talking about. MSC is closer to a Gamanche than Duclair.

You trade prospects that don't show an upward trajectory, not ones that do. Especially at the productivity rate of Duclair's . Boo Nieves: Downward Trajectory.

Who was the last Ranger prospect that scored at a goal a game clip in juniors with a year of eligibility left?

 

[AlternateSideParking]

...what?

I'm saying Duclair was drafted where he shouldnt have been drafted, and those types of players who drop on draft day rarely transfer their CHL success over to the NHL.

 

[BarbaraAlphanse]

I'm saying Duclair was drafted where he shouldnt have been drafted, and those types of players who drop on draft day rarely transfer their CHL success over to the NHL.

What does that say about Henrik Lundqvuist then?

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Seth Jones is a 19 year old defenseman, who can log 20 minutes. He's also producing offense.

Eventually Seth Jones is going to contend for the Norris annually.

I'm not knocking Jones. He's a franchise defenseman in the making.

I'm saying that fans and scribes like to think that a guy dropping in draft status automatically makes him motivated to be a better player, when in reality, what you see is what you get.

Is Jones better than Mackinnon or Barkov? Apples and Oranges, but neither team regrets their pick.

Duclair is a very, very good CHL player. But so was Grachev. So was Thomas. So was St. Croix, So was Dawes.

 

[Alluckks]

What are the chances of getting someone like Moulson at 5.5 per?

Kreider (2) - Stepan (3.075) - Nash (7.8)
Moulson (5.5) - Brassard (4) - Zuccarello (4)
Hagelin (2.25) - Miller (.895) - Stewart (4.15)
Boyle (2) - Goc (2.5) - Dorsett(1.63)
Pouliot (1.6)

McDonagh (4.7) - Girardi (5.5)
Staal (3.975) - McIlrath (.703)
Moore (1.8) - Klein (2.9)
Falk (1.2)

Lundqvist (8.5)
Talbot (.562)

= 70.04

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Okaaaay, that's true. And most of them then bomb out, as you imply with the names you listed. But, every year there are a couple that recover and people say "crap, he was ranked as a first liner going into the draft. Why didn't we pick him when he fell to the third?"

It's the exception, not the rule, but what Duclair and Buchnevich have both done this year are about all you could ask of them to show that they may be in that category. Heck, even Tambellini has been performing since he left NoDak.


You're writing him off already? He's in the NHL and playing well, for crying out loud.

I'm not really sure what you're on about with your last couple of posts, GWOW. What is the point you're trying to make?

Guys who drop in the draft drop for a reason. Being overlooked doesnt make them a better player, and if they need that to motivate them to prove people wrong, then it's obvious they have a problem

Forget the comment about Seth Jones because people obviously misunderstood what i was trying to say. I wasnt attacking Jones. I was attacking the fans and "experts" who said he'll be become a better player because he was passed over.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

What does that say about Henrik Lundqvuist then?

Apples and Oranges. Lundqvist dropped because nobody thought there was any chance he'd play in North America, and there were what -- like 20 or 30 goalies drafted that year?

Duclair dropped for several reasons, none of which had to do with a concern that he wouldnt play for the team who drafted him.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Guys who drop in the draft drop for a reason. Being overlooked doesnt make them a better player, and if they need that to motivate them to prove people wrong, then it's obvious they have a problem

Forget the comment about Seth Jones because people obviously misunderstood what i was trying to say. I wasnt attacking Jones. I was attacking the fans and "experts" who said he'll be become a better player because he was passed over.

You're right there are never players that outplay their draft position. After all they all dropped for a reason.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Fans are fickle. They want none of their top prospects traded to get established NHL players, but they certainly want every top prospect of every other team in trade proposals.

I guess nobody likes to remember that the Nordiques traded Mats Sundin and Owen Nolan -- two 1st Overall picks -- for guys who amounted to be role players as they won two Stanley Cups.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

The bottom line is unless a player like Crosby or Kopitar is coming back, we don't have to worry about Duclair going anywhere anytime soon. Before we give him the keys to the franchise though, lets see how he does as the main guy at Traverse City.

Back to trades though, that Khoklachev kid on Boston is good. He makes things happen. If the Rangers do business with Boston, would love to get him back.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

You're right there are never players that outplay their draft position. After all they all dropped for a reason.

I'm not talking about hidden gems. I'm talking about guys that were once expected to be a top pick and slid on draft day.

And not slid one or two or 10 spots. Guys like Kabanov (the next Ovechkin), Macfarlane, Rajala, etc.

Nigel Williams was rated 11th by THN in 2006...he was picked at 51st overall, and was out of hockey four years later.

Central Scouting had Colby Robak at 20 in 2008, he was drafted at 46 and has played in 19 NHL games since getting drafted six years ago.

Sure, there are exceptions and plenty of them. I'm of the opinion that draft sliders who dominate the CHL should be looked at with skepticism, especially if the player possibly slid because of personality traits.

 

[Raspewtin]

I'm saying Duclair was drafted where he shouldnt have been drafted, and those types of players who drop on draft day rarely transfer their CHL success over to the NHL.

I couldn't have looked at that in a vacuum better than you if I tried.

Ankle injury leading to change in style of play for half a season + one stupid locker room incident and he won't transfer his success to the NHL?

 

[AlternateSideParking]

The bottom line is unless a player like Crosby or Kopitar is coming back, we don't have to worry about Duclair going anywhere anytime soon. Before we give him the keys to the franchise though, lets see how he does as the main guy at Traverse City.

Back to trades though, that Khoklachev kid on Boston is good. He makes things happen. If the Rangers do business with Boston, would love to get him back.

That's who the Rangers need to do business with. Chivago, Boston, San Jose, Colorado, LA etc.

Those teams are elite and have players/prospects who are going to be blocked for a while, therefore making them expendable.

No more Blue Jackets and training camp castoffs.