Speculation: Trade / Roster Speculation Thread XXXIV: Over the edge of being a little closer.

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Dan Boyle has to know it's coming to its end. Maybe we can get him cheap and sell him on winning a cup in New York. 2 conference finals in 3 years is 10x better then wat he was getting in San Jose.
 
I'm not sure I'd want Vanek, but surely with MSL coming off the books after next season you could squeeze him in for 2014-15 and then replace MSL with someone like Fast in 15-16 while using the MSL $$ for raises?

Yeah, but is MSL coming off the books after this contract is up? Did we really give up as much as we did for a 1.2 y of MSL?

Someone like Whitney played good hockey untill he was like 43 y/o. How many more years does MSL plan to play?
 
Barring injury MSL will keep playing. He she still produce to near a level that he is right now for another few years. Maybe he signs for a Naslund like contract. 2 years $8 total money.
 
On Stralman v Klein. Stralman is averaging 6:30 more per game in the playoffs that Klein. I don't think its a matter of who to keep, obviously with the team winning and Stralsy logging the ice-time that he is, he is the keeper of the two.

Question now becomes, is the opportunity cost of keeping Stralman mean losing two of Boyle, Pouliot and Moore, instead of just one?
 
We are closing in on a situation where -- like it or not -- management is gonna want to mess with the team as little as possible.

What do we do then? I mean seriously, if the approch is to mess with the team as little as possible where do we stand and what is done?
 
What do people think of these numbers (estimates are bolded), puts us 8.5m over the cap...

FORWARDS
Chris Kreider ($2.200m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Benoit Pouliot ($3.000m) / Derick Brassard ($3.700m) / Mats Zuccarello ($4.000m)
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / Brad Richards ($6.667m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Derek Dorsett ($1.633m) / Dominic Moore ($2.800m) / Brian Boyle ($3.000m)
Daniel Carcillo ($0.825m)

DEFENSEMEN
Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m) / Dan Girardi ($5.500m)
Marc Staal ($3.975m) / Anton Stralman ($3.700m)
John Moore ($1.700m) / Kevin Klein ($2.900m)
Raphael Diaz ($1.500m)

GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)

CAP PAYROLL: $79,612,500
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): -$8,512,500

Two options sticks out, (A) buy out BR or (B) let the awsome 4th lineers as well as Stralman walk (saving around 7m), while nickle and diming the others to get under the cap... We could possibly let Moore and Boyle go while trading Klein and get under the cap.

Just trying to map what alternatives we have. But lets face it, the season can play out three diffrent ways. (1) MTL comes back and beats us. (2) We make it to the finals but loose. (3) We win it all. Its going to have an impact on how we move forward, like it or not.
 
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Diaz shouldn't be kept as a 7th dman if he's asking for $1.5 million. I don't see John Moore getting $1.7 million either.

No team can afford to pay a combined almost $8 million for their 4th line. I think $2-2.5 for each of Boyle and Moore is fair. Trade Dorsett and let Fast play there. That saves about $3 million there. Knock about $500k off each of Diaz and J. Moore. There's another $1 million saved.

As for Pouilet, should the team pay $3 million for a 30-35 point player? $2.5 is fair for him.

That saves about $4.5-5 million. Problem is the team would still have to shed about $4 million to fit under the cap.

Does Stralman take a little less for one year when the Rangers have some more room the following off season? May be around $3 million.

You can buyout Richards but with the remaining $3.66 million in savings after resigning Stralman at $3 million can you sign a 3rd line center?

Or do you let Stralman walk no matter what and buy out Richards. Let a kid play and find a decent 2nd/3rd line center?
 
UA- Fair pts.

But we can really put pressure on the RFAs without arbitration rights (John Moore for example), but not so much on Boyle, D. Moore, Pouliot and co.

I really think it make sense for Pouliot to resign here, he has been on what 5 teams the last 5 years. He should at least take a 2 year contract here and establish himself. But with that said, 3m to start with is not a lot. He is a UFA. What do he get on the open market? 3.5m-4m?

Brian Boyle hasn't made a lot of money in his career. C-geek got him at 7.6m over his career. There is 30 teams in this league. I am -- afraid -- that there will be a few of those who see Boyle fixing some of their problems. -- Exactly -- the situation Prust got in. What is he worth to them then? 3m per long term? You know, I am not saying anything is "fair", but what that "one team" might offer Boyle scares me. And all of a sudden he stands there being forced to give up like 6m total or whatever to stay in NY.

Dom Moore is in a special sitaution, how much does he want to move around etc? But he has also never been paid. I think he has played the best hockey of his career so far. Couldn't he get 2.8m on the market? I mean, its possible we could shave some of that. I would -- love -- to be able to give him 3-4 years at a bit of a more decent rate. But its still alot of money for a 4th lineer.
 
They should make Hank have surgery in the off-season. Have him on LTIR untill christmas and ride Talbot. Would save us some money... ;)

Another crazy thought, -- if -- we won the Cup this season, the first player on that roster that I would look to trade -- if possible -- would have been Dan Girardi lol (to replace him with Klein) for futures (his NMC has already kicked in, right?). All players on this roster would have been a part of a fantastic run and would know what it took to make it, already. His attitude would just be less valuble. He would give us a good return. Etc.
 
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On the topic of Klein, he hasn't been specacular for us. I don't necessary disagree with the advanced stats nuts that points out his flaws.

But, I am old enough to remember Brooks Orpiks journey in Pittsburgh for example. Klein just turned 29 y/o. Orpik is a player who for a long time was seen as a somewhat of a half-failed 1st round pick, who played a lot on Pittsburgh's 3rd pairing. It wasn't untill he got to the age Klein is now that he started to step up as a noteworthy top 4 D.

Klein don't have to turn into Orpik. But I think he is doing what is asked from him, and if we let him tend to it for a numbers of years I would be suprised if he didn't have his best years infront of him.

I am not saying that Klein should be kept at all costs, and I don't think he is a good option behind Girardi next to Strålman, but on the other hand I could see him play more than he is right now too down the road.
 
I think Richards HAS to be bought out. So that solves that.

Moore, Boyles, Carcillo, Stralman are priorities as UFA's.

MZA, Brassard, Moore, Kreider are priorities as RFA's.

Falk should be let go.

Diaz and Pouliot should be kept as long as they are willing to stay at a still reduced rate.



CAPGEEK.COM ARMCHAIR GM ROSTER
CapGeek Armchair GM Roster
FORWARDS
Chris Kreider ($2.250m) / Derek Stepan ($3.075m) / Rick Nash ($7.800m)
Benoit Pouliot ($2.250m) / Derick Brassard ($3.700m) / Mats Zuccarello ($3.750m)
Carl Hagelin ($2.250m) / J.T. Miller ($0.894m) / Martin St. Louis ($5.625m)
Brian Boyle ($2.500m) / Dominic Moore ($2.250m) / Derek Dorsett ($1.633m)
Daniel Carcillo ($0.825m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Dan Girardi ($5.500m) / Ryan McDonagh ($4.700m)
Marc Staal ($3.975m) / Anton Stralman ($3.500m)
John Moore ($1.500m) / Kevin Klein ($2.900m)
GOALTENDERS
Henrik Lundqvist ($8.500m)
Cameron Talbot ($0.563m)
BUYOUTS
Wade Redden ($0.000m)
Brad Richards ($0.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,940,000; BONUSES: $350,000
CAP SPACE (21-man roster): $1,160,000
 
I am -- not -- saying that it should be "the" option we pursue, but if we win the Cup this year, one way to "restructure" this team and kind of aim to be able to shift in a new gear going forward, could be to "revamp" the blueline by trading Marc Staal for a top notch young up and coming PPQB.

To start with, what is the problem with our blueline as-is? As I see it we are bound to tie up a lot of money in our top 4, like 20-25m down the road, and we will still lack a true PMD. And I mean, we shouldn't underestimate the impact on Hanks game that he is playing infront of either McD or Staal like almost 50 minutes per game, and our D pairings as is certainly contributes a lot of positives and when McD is scoring its pretty awsome. But there is a bit of a down side too.

There are a few teams out there that really was hurt by not being good enough defensively and that I am sure would love to add a D like Staal (Anaheim sticks out with three young PMDs in Fowler, Lindholm and Vaatanen).

A few potential moves:
Marc Staal for Hampus Lindholm
//I don't think ANA is moving Lindholm, but if they did this is a move I would do instantly and straight up and it would fix our cap situation -- alone -- next season.

1. McD-Girardi
2. Lindholm-Klein
3. Moore-McIlrath

We would save over 6m next year. We would have one of the elite PMDs in the game going forward, PPQB and what not. McD-Girardi would have to play a lot more defensively (and they could handle that), but we improve greately offensively.

I would make the exact same move for Brodin in Minny (doubt Minny would do that too)...

----

Two moves that I would be much more hesitent to pull off, but that would accomplish the same from a cap point of view are the following.

Marc Staal to Carolina for Ryan Murphy + Carolina's 1st

or

Marc Staal to Anaheim for Sami Vaatanen + Ottawa's 1st

It fix our cap situation, it gives us a right handed PPQB, and we recoup a 1st round pick (being without a 1st round pick three straight years aint good).

Both these trades definitely makes a dent in our defense. I recon we would see like the following pairings:
McD-Girardi
Moore-Vaatanen/Murphy
Allen-Klein

To a somewhat big extent, we could make up for this by really rolling McD-Girardi hard when we need the defensive shifts. And with more of an offensive punch from the blueline, we hopefully wouldn't have to play as much defense as we are from time to time forced to do right now. Getting a 1st round pick back this year would be huge, especially Carolina's 7th overall pick.

But I think these trades are much more questionable than the Lindholm/Brodin suggestions, that probably are just completely unlikely to ever be accepted by ANA/Minny.
 
$3M+ for Pouliot is crazy talk. I want the guy back but he scored 36 points this year. If that is his price, find a cheaper UFA or let Fast slide in there.

Boyle and Stralman I agree with your numbers but I think both may have priced themselves off this team. Boyle will get $3.5 on the open market, Stralman 4+. It would be ideal to keep them but that's the reality of a cap world.
 
Pouliot is a dumb hockey player. The Rangers have caught lightning in a bottle with him. Anything more than a one year contract for him is too much. Can he take anymore stupid penalties?
 
Thanks for the input on Pouliot!

Is there any good comparable for him? I have a bit of a hard track to think of someone recently signed in his mold.

Checking on Pouliot, I saw that he only scored 15 goals during the regular season. For some reason I thought he had around 20-21 or something. With him at 15+21, maybe Slats could get him to take a 1 or 2 year contract pretty cheap. I just can't imagine, for the reasons stated above, that Pouliot want to move again this summer.
 
The Rangers will be facing a cap crunch. The Hawks faced similar situations twice. They didn't want to lose key players from their teams but they had no choice. The cap is set at $69.5 million and the Rangers will have to make the necessary moves. Welcome to pro sports 2014.
 
Since we are talking about options, just to have the groundwork in place, does Rick Nash's NMC still apply? I remember there being talk about this a while back, that if you waived a NMC once it was waived for good, but my understanding was that that wasn't the case.
 
The Rangers will be facing a cap crunch. The Hawks faced similar situations twice. They didn't want to lose key players from their teams but they had no choice. The cap is set at $69.5 million and the Rangers will have to make the necessary moves. Welcome to pro sports 2014.

Agreed.

It sucks. I do think that Brian Boyle is gone for example, and that is a darn shame because I think he is a -- huge -- part of this team right now. All the bickering about his play during the regular season aside, the guy really steps up during the POs for sure and is an important player. But it just feels like he will make too much money for a 4th lineer, by a pretty big margin.
 
Agreed.

It sucks. I do think that Brian Boyle is gone for example, and that is a darn shame because I think he is a -- huge -- part of this team right now. All the bickering about his play during the regular season aside, the guy really steps up during the POs for sure and is an important player. But it just feels like he will make too much money for a 4th lineer, by a pretty big margin.

If they decide to go with a young 3c, say Lindberg or Miller, I think they retain Boyle. If they try and go out and bring in another C then he is gone. With a young 3c there will be bumps in the road. That means Moore and Boyle would be playing more. Maybe 10 minutes a game.
 
I highly doubt Pouliot cracks $3M... if he gets a 2 year deal, I think he'll sign. $1.8M/yr is fair for him.

Brassard is the one that can be tricky since he can accept his QO at $3.7M, which is a little more than what you want considering he can become a UFA. I'd like him at $3.4 on a multi year deal. Use signing bonuses as a way of making it work.

Stralman, 4 years at $3.4M would be ideal. Double up his last contract.

Dorsett: Have to cash in on him, like the guy, but he can be replaced. 4th liners that don't PK are not worth $1.6M. Team saves $1M by replacing him with Fast.

On Richards: Yeah logically he is a buyout candidate, but the team has had success since he signed... 2 ECF appearances, and a Semi where he wasn't allowed to contribute. His game isn't on the upswing, and at best he is a $5M cap hit, but how does letting him go affect the team? Tougher choice than what most think.

Boyle: This guy is valuable, don't care what anyone says, but he is valuable. He will get some very nice offers. In my opinion he ends up elsewhere on a 4-5 year deal where cracks at least $2.75M.

Zucc: Lock him up long term at $3.5M. Maybe he gets more, we don't know, but the numbers are there for him to really hit pay dirt in arbitration.
 
I do think Brad Richards will and should be bought out.

But I think its a tougher decision than many acknowledge. The thing is, Brad Richards is not a player fans can "brag" about, look our player is awsome he is the best in the world yada yada yada. His contract, skill set, and maybe the most important factor, his stats doesn't impress people. For a good reason probably.

But, that don't change the fact that he is a core player on this team. He plays 3.40 on avg on our PP, McD with the second highest PP time play 2.50... He is a core player in the room. He plays a lot of important minutes 5 on 5. He has done a decent job getting a certain type of players going (Hagelin for example).

At a place like this someone can throw out a statement like our PP suck anyway, just get rid of him. But I can guarantee that loosing BR would be a -- great -- concern for AV. If you loose a 4th lineer, a good pro-scout -- should -- be able to find you a half-good one for like 1.2m per. But you don't replace the guy playing 75% of your PP time and everything else that BR brings like that.

BR has 6 more year left. I don't think its a stretch to imagine that he could play like he have this year for another 3-4 years. After that you gotta have legitimate concerns. It could become an issue, even a big one, or it could not become an issue.

I think that, especially if we make the Finals but loose, that the decision could be tough to make for the brass.
 
Stralman turned down $3.5m per year and since doing that has elevated his game even further and is now a top 4 player on an ECF finalist.
He is going to get $4m + on open market. (I say closer to $5)
While I do not disagree about Pouliot, he'll get $3m + somewhere.
Don't forget that the Cap goes up either folks. Prices for UFAs will be 20% higher this year than they were last year

Obtaining legitimate talent without having to give up assets drives UFA prices far highere than they should be, but that is the reality.
 
I will also say, if the team wins or comes just short the "take a pay cut vs the open market to stay with a contender" argument may actually hold traction with some players. Whereas I could see in the past it ringing a little hollow at times.

Can't bank on it but it's possible.
 
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