Speculation: Trade / Roster Speculation Thread XXXII: To Smurf or not to Smurf

[Ex Officer Friendly]

Skilled players are available past the first few picks of each draft. Look at Detroit. Nyquist, Jurco, Tatar, Sheahan, Ferraro, etc. Where do they pick these players?

Yea but for each one of those players how many of them fizzle and never make it to the NHL.... I mean we can look at Quick being taken in the 3rd round and Hank in 7th but that doesn't mean that every goalie taken after the second round will be like Quick and Hank.

you can't expect to find the gems every single draft...

 

[silverfish]

And that's fine if that's the way they want to play. What is the philosophy like you said before? Does it stay in place more than 5 years?

Only with a fundamental change from the top down. Something a new GM would have to bring in.

Sather and his "half-year" plans are not working.

(duh)

 

[Ex Officer Friendly]

Only with a fundamental change from the top down. Something a new GM would have to bring in.

Sather and his "half-year" plans are not working.

(duh)

Not his fault he forgets the plan


he's old

 

[Trxjw]

And this goes back and back to what we've all known about Sather's tenure here, in that there is no fundamental philosophy to build upon. We had it in NY one year 2011/2012. It's no surprise that is the farthest we have gone under Sather. We had a team philosophy from the top down. Black and Blueshirts. Blew it up for Nash, and didn't re-sign Prust. All seemingly good moves, but when you go back to trying to build the mountain, it messes up the plan.

Then we didn't have enough depth to run Tortorella's black and blue system, so we trade Gaborik for further depth. Again, not necessarily a bad move.

However, we took it even further to firing the guy the team was built around, and bringing in AV to settle the pieces. Square pegs into round holes. Was it a bad move to fire Torts? Of course not.

Just because these are all seemingly good moves though, doesn't mean it's helping the big picture. It's a changing philosophy every year. That in itself is the biggest problem the Rangers have.

Now, this St. Louis trade, which seems to be the biggest argument of them all, is actually a trade I still agree with. It kills the Rangers in the draft pick situation, without a doubt, but it makes the on-ice product better. Are we seeing the dividends that we wanted yet? No, of course not. Is it fair to judge MSL after 7 games? I don't think so.

And, of course we didn't *have* to trade for MSL just because he wanted to come to New York. On the other hand, it was more and more apparent that Callahan was not coming back to the team next season. Sather, instead of choosing to lose Callahan for nothing, and deal other pieces for MSL, decided to wash his hands of the situation and let Callahan go early.

You say that MSL's trade value would have declined had we waited, but it surely wouldn't have declined enough to be had for the rights to Ryan Callahan, seeing as how it's doubtful enough that the Lightning will sign him on their own accord anyway.

So, let's say for fun that MSL didn't get traded to the Rangers at the deadline, but could instead be had at the 2014 draft. What would his value be? And now, who/what are we trading for him since we don't have Callahan as a proper trading piece?

/EndRamble

Teams reassess their needs in the off-season. A failed playoff push thanks to an unhappy MSL may have forced Yzerman to budge on his asking price. Sure, Callahan would have not been a piece in the deal, but that doesn't mean the trade couldn't still have been friendlier for us. Say we dealt Callahan for a prospect and San Jose's first round pick. Now we have two first rounders this year. Maybe we wind up with San Jose's first, and our 2nd next year for MSL instead of our first next year and possibly our first this year? Heck, the deal we did make would have been more palatable had we had two picks in the first round this year. Maybe Chris Stewart was more appealing to Tampa than Callahan and fewer picks would have been necessary? It's all theoretical of course, but the asking price eventually came down for Nash, so I can't imagine the same wouldn't have been true for MSL.

There are just so many variables when it comes to building the right team, but there's a reason trades of this magnitude generally don't happen at the deadline. It throws a major wrench into things. The other big deals didn't result in the playoff contender sending key pieces back to the seller. I realize that the Blues/Sabres deal involved big names, but Stewart was on the outs and the deal didn't disrupt the leadership of the team and addressed serious needs for the Blues. Trading Callahan resulted in a leadership change with a core piece being dealt, and didn't address positional need whatsoever. It was made in a vacuum and those kind of moves never seem to work out.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Skilled players are available past the first few picks of each draft. Look at Detroit. Nyquist, Jurco, Tatar, Sheahan, Ferraro, etc. Where do they pick these players?

I remember there were rumors that we were looking at Sheahan. This board would have revolted at the time.

 

[AHB*]

Also, for everyone saying 1st round picks are fine to throw away. Half our our team is basically former 1st rounders.

 

[Thirty One]

Also, for everyone saying 1st round picks are fine to throw away. Half our our team is basically former 1st rounders.

And our team is ****, so obviously they should look elsewhere.

 

[Ex Officer Friendly]

I remember there were rumors that we were looking at Sheahan. This board would have revolted at the time.

New style of drafting called hindsight drafting

 

[RangerBoy]

$3.6B in revenue is projected for this season. The players get half of that. Subtract $100,000,000 for player benefits. $1.7B goes to the players. Divide by 30 teams. $56,666,667 is the midpoint. Add 5%. $2,833,333. $59,500,000 is the adjusted midpoint. Add 15%. $8,925,000. $68,425,000 upper limit. $50,750,000 lower limit. The CBA has a new provision.

Preliminary HRR for the prior League Year multiplied by fifty (50) percent (the Applicable Percentage), minus [-] Projected Benefits), divided [/] by the number of Clubs then playing in the NHL (e.g., 30), shall equal [=] the Midpoint of the Payroll Range (which figure shall be considered the Midpoint only for purposes of calculating the Adjusted Midpoint; all references to the "Midpoint" thereafter shall mean the "Adjusted Midpoint"), which shall be adjusted upward by a factor of five (5) percent in each League Year (yielding the Adjusted Midpoint, which shall then become the Midpoint of the Payroll Range) unless or until either party to this Agreement proposes a different growth factor based on actual revenue experience and/or projections, in which case the parties shall discuss and agree upon a new factor. If a significant (i.e., $20 million or more) one- time increase or decrease to League-wide revenues (e.g., by reason of the addition or loss of a national television contract or the scheduled opening of one or more new arenas which is expected to result in a significant increase in League-wide revenues) is anticipated in the next League Year, the parties will endeavor to estimate the expected increase or decrease and incorporate that estimate into the above-stated formula for calculating the Adjusted Midpoint.

The NHL and NHLPA need to get together to figure out the TV money. Estimate how much to add.

$71M was the figure discussed in December. That includes an estimate of the TV money included.

The NHL said the cap could be off by $1M-$2M from the $71M based on the Canadian dollar.

The math of $3.6B doesn't come out to $71M.

 

[Tawnos]

Worth noting that projected rev numbers have often been on the short side. But yeah, TV needs to be addressed.

 

[Leetch3]

Also, for everyone saying 1st round picks are fine to throw away. Half our our team is basically former 1st rounders.

i think staal and kreider are the only guys that we drafted in the first round, not sure how the fact that we've been able to acquire other teams former first rounders is an argument for or against trading away our 1st...

 

[Todd Harvey]

Sather's Unheralded Moves

So much with the Rangers is day-to-day. A win and things look brighter, a loss and everyone's back on the ledge LOL. But as the season goes on and evidence mounts, certain moves become easier to decipher.

Last night's game versus Ottawa was definitely one where some stats got padded.
Same time, it's becoming undeniable the Rangers have 7 players with a good chance of netting 15-20 goals; that's real balance.
And that's not counting Nash, who already has 22, or McDonagh (12), or St Louis, who has 29 on the year, though none for us.

When you look at the value the NYR have received on some of these deals, it's pretty impressive. Zuccarello has to be one of the best bargains in hockey this year, to say the least. People doubted whether he should or would come back. But Sather canned the coach who wasnt using him right and the Hobbitt returned.
Puliot signed for only $1.3m, and really helped the Rangers out of a jam on a paper-thin left side. He's not only now put up 27 pts, he's been more rambuncious than I think anyone anticipated.

I have a hunch Sather played the percentages in thinking his new french-canadien coach could extract whatever talent Puliot had yet to unearth; along with Brassard, another french-canadien, it amounts to one of Sather's calculated risks that is now paying off.

Columbus got something like 9 or 10 goals total from Marion Gaborik before shipping him to L.A. The Rangers not only got Brassard, now with 15 goals and just shy of 40 points (and Dorsett, who can seem to crack the lineup because the NYR 'depth' is playing that well), but John Moore, who's been a different player since MDZ was traded and he's been paired with a solid stay-at-home type in Klein. Im still not totally sold on Moore, but he's certainly been serviceable at worst, and there's more upside there.
Even the other Moore, Dom, has been largely terrific.
Another signing from out of nowhere, Moore has just very quietly given the Rangers good minutes.

And just to go back to the top, with Zuccarello, he perhaps more than anything made Ryan Callahan expendable.
He took ownership of the 2nd line RW spot. And that's why the St Louis deal amounts to a freebie. Anything the Rangers get from him should be a bonus. Plus they're not locked into Callahan for the next 6 years, on what would have been a nightmare contract.

So things are becoming clearer, and all that's without mentioning a guy like Carcillo, picked up for a 7th, who's played some good hockey for them. Or what Kreider's done since getting straightened out, which I think is directly attributable to the coaching change (and may have been one of the main reasons Torts was axed).

So overall, Id maintain this is a balanced roster, and its proving itself to be one. The one exception being size, where they are a little light. But even a guy like Richards, who I 100% would have bought out, is nearing 50 points. That said, it's just a real nice mix of skill, age, and determination. Even the Rangers smaller guys like Hagelin and Zuc & MSL are spunky, so I think this team has a lot of fight in it, and a good chance for success. And still, with guys like JT & McIlrath and Lindberg & Duclair and now Haggerty (who they list as a center, btw), more good young players pushing for jobs next year. So, interesting an mix.

 

[KreiMeARiver*]

Would anyone take a chance on Heater this offseason?

 

[aufheben]

i think staal and kreider are the only guys that we drafted in the first round, not sure how the fact that we've been able to acquire other teams former first rounders is an argument for or against trading away our 1st...

It shows the importance of 1st rounders. Nothing wrong with taking a risk to put you over the top, but overestimating your team in the process will set you back. A team like St. Louis can afford to trade a 1st, for multiple reasons. St. Louis has been building through the draft since the lockout, and we're now seeing the fruits of their labors.

 

[Punxrocknyc19*]

Would anyone take a chance on Heater this offseason?

another washed up forward past his prime. yea lets bring back those guys from 2001-2004



Heatley sucks...

 

[Boom Boom Geoffrion*]

Would anyone take a chance on Heater this offseason?

Why would you even think about bringing Heatley in? Have you actually watched him play the last few season's? (Especially this year).

I think Boyle can outskate him. Seriously. Like, seriously seriously.

 

[Championship*]

If Sather is still at the helm, Heatley wouldn't surprise me in the least. Tried to get him before, and now that he's washed up, he'd be a prime target for our moron GM.

 

[Ex Officer Friendly]

If Sather is still at the helm, Heatley wouldn't surprise me in the least. Tried to get him before, and now that he's washed up, he'd be a prime target for our moron GM.

no no I don't think he likes the washed up ones anymore... however i wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he threw wheel barrels of cash at people like Vanek, Moulson, and say someone like Gionta and expect them to come in and fix all the problems here

 

[KreiMeARiver*]

Why would you even think about bringing Heatley in? Have you actually watched him play the last few season's? (Especially this year).

I think Boyle can outskate him. Seriously. Like, seriously seriously.

haha well I asked about him in the Wild board and they said he had been playing better of late.

If we could get him dirt cheap, I'd take a chance.

 

[KreiMeARiver*]

haha well I asked about him in the Wild board and they said he had been playing better of late.

If we could get him dirt cheap, I'd take a chance.

update: this was a month ago, and he hasn't done anything since.

nevermind... see, this is why HGH is good....to prolong these guys' careers. haha

 

[NYR Viper]

I really don't think Boyle is back next year. I honestly believe that either Bourque or Hrivik could take his place as the 4th line LW. Boyle will make in excess of 2.5 million on a middle-length deal (3-4 years) for someone looking for what he provides. He handles the puck like a grenade most of the time.

Both are defensively responsible young forwards. Bourque is much faster but brings less size. Good PKer. Hrivik provides good board play and the ability to handle the puck. Both are much less expensive.

 

[TheTakedown]

I really don't think Boyle is back next year. I honestly believe that either Bourque or Hrivik could take his place as the 4th line LW. Boyle will make in excess of 2.5 million on a middle-length deal (3-4 years) for someone looking for what he provides. He handles the puck like a grenade most of the time.

Both are defensively responsible young forwards. Bourque is much faster but brings less size. Good PKer. Hrivik provides good board play and the ability to handle the puck. Both are much less expensive.

Also the possibility of keeping a 4th line of Carcillo-Moore-Dorsett..

 

[Vitto79]

Also the possibility of keeping a 4th line of Carcillo-Moore-Dorsett..

That's what I would do. Boyle makes too much for a 4th liner

 

[Ail]

That's what I would do. Boyle makes too much for a 4th liner

Not really considering he is one of the best 4th liners in the league. His next contract will probably an overpayment. I'd like them to retain him but if the price tag is high hopefully they pay Moore and go from there.

 

[Doctyl]

Really hope they bring back Moore. I believe he is the reason we have a good 4th line this year.