HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #88: 2024 Off-Season Thread

[BoneHutson]

Only way I can see Hughes going for Laine is if Anderson is going the other way. I think it fits our timeline better to have two years of Laine instead of three of Andy. And lets say Laine pulls a season for the ages, you can trade him for a haul at the TDL at 50% retained.

Laine for Anderson + Barron + 3rd

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Only way I can see Hughes going for Laine is if Anderson is going the other way. I think it fits our timeline better to have two years of Laine instead of three of Andy. And lets say Laine pulls a season for the ages, you can trade him for a haul at the TDL at 50% retained.

Laine for Anderson + Barron + 3rd

Trading Anderson would be a win. He needs a change of scenery too. But I just don't see Columbus doing this. We'd have to give them a lot more.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Trading Anderson would be a win. He needs a change of scenery too. But I just don't see Columbus doing this. We'd have to give them a lot more.

hey Josh! welcome back to Columbus!

 

[BaseballCoach]

Why not? Trade Anderson and picks for Laine with retention.

Laine can be easily the next Nichushkin for Habs (in sense that Nichushkin is now a huge piece for Colorado and they acquering him at age 26).

Just 2 years of his contract, I will try that 100%

I don't think we will get retention if we pass them Anderson (or less likely Gallagher or Price)

 

[The Great Weal]

They never said what prospects and picks they’re asking for. Doubt it’s a high package of quality. B prospects and 2nd 3rdish depending.

The contract itself is negative value. It would be hard to find a team that would give him 8.7x2 if he was a free agent, so not sure why giving up assets (no matter how insignificant) makes any sense here. If he had one year left then yes it's far easier to justify it.

 

[Habssince89]

Neither is Laine

Yeah but we're giving them picks/prospects as value, that's what they want to begin with. any roster player (ex Anderson) is for cap purposes. Armia needs to stay a hab

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I don’t think you’re necessarily in the minority. I think a lot of people would send the kids down so we give Barron/Harris/Struble a chance to show what they are and what maybe let them raise their trade value.

Let Reinbacher bulk up and get used to NA ice.

Some franchises like Nashville/Winnipeg like to let their prospects marinate in the AHL and once they truly dominate down there then they get called up.

The problem with that is training camp.

What happens if in training camp Hutson/Mailloux/Reinbacher clearly outplay Barron/Harris/Struble? You go purely by merit or by seniority? And should we lose a young D to waivers? Is that good asset management?

It gets tricky quickly.

I don't necessarily believe that merit can be achieved in training camp when competition is poor and the team is disorganized. Making bold proclamations based on strong/poor camps has long been a fools errand and should do little more than put prospects on the radar, or provide an indication that they are/are not progressing but the ability to play well in the preseason has little correlation to whether a player will find success in the regular season. It is just as likely that a strong preseason only bumps a prospect up the queue for being called up during the season.

 

[Sterling Archer]

The contract itself is negative value. It would be hard to find a team that would give him 8.7x2 if he was a free agent, so not sure why giving up assets (no matter how insignificant) makes any sense here. If he had one year left then yes it's far easier to justify it.

Because he’s stop putting up numbers and can be a huge offensive part of a team. I think you’re forgetting that part.
You can’t divorce the player from the contract and you’re trading back some salary as well from a young D which lowers Habs total cap, not that the Habs need it.

 

[BLONG7]

The contract itself is negative value. It would be hard to find a team that would give him 8.7x2 if he was a free agent, so not sure why giving up assets (no matter how insignificant) makes any sense here. If he had one year left then yes it's far easier to justify it.

The kid has some stuff going on..............but he is 26 yrs old, and is 6'5 and 210 lbs and can score 30 goals...............there are 32 GM's in the league and if a team has cap space to do it, most of those GM's just might go there........
2 years....that is key here.

 

[yianik]

It's mid summer. I have kids , a wife, a dog, full time job.

Why am I on this forum at this moment ?

 

[Beendair Donedat]

It's mid summer. I have kids , a wife, a dog, full time job.

Why am I on this forum at this moment ?

Yes.

 

[BLONG7]

It's mid summer. I have kids , a wife, a dog, full time job.

Why am I on this forum at this moment ?

The habs are an addiction eh..............I can talk habs and hockey 52 weeks of the year!
Very strange........the getting better is huge in our lives.............

 

[Egresch]

The contract itself is negative value. It would be hard to find a team that would give him 8.7x2 if he was a free agent, so not sure why giving up assets (no matter how insignificant) makes any sense here. If he had one year left then yes it's far easier to justify it.

Corect, but it is still a matter of demand-offer. Just like MTL, there are few other teams which could be willing to take this risk for couple years, like Utah, Chicago, Anaheim.
If CBJ decide to retain 50% of his salary, this opens up bunch of other trade candidates and yu just need to beat them all.

 

[ReHabs]

I’m big on acquiring Laine but to play the other side for a moment: if he struggles in the 24-25 season with form and being out of action, it’s going to be a pain in the ass having 8.7m "unaccounted for" in the 25-26 season when considering that we'd have 12m in Gallagher and Anderson already locked up there. That's 8.7m that could go to acquiring a premiere UFA or trade target in case Laine doesn't turn out to be that guy.

As it stands, for the 25-26 season we have 61m in cap commitments (give or take some ELCs) and a salary cap of at least 90m (likelier 92m). Without using any LTIR, we have about 30m in cap space for the 25-26 season and need to re-sign Guhle, call-up Demidov and maybe some other ELCs, and acquire/secure several bottom6ers to replace Armia, Dvorak, etc.

It would be a shame to miss out on the 2025 UFA bonanza because Patrick Laine's stinkin' up the joint...

However (back to being a Laine-optimist):

1. We have Petry+Allen's dead cap (4.2m) off the books as of the end of this year
2. Price's 10.5m is in its last year in the 25-26 season and just like Shea Weber his contract can likely be dealt away to a team after LTIR space after his July 1st 5.5m bonus is paid (with the remainder: 2m in-season wages)
3. If Price's contract is retained, we theoretically can spend 10.5m more and utilising LTIR means doing so to maximise the 'additional' cap space; Laine's 8.7 is a good way to fill 'er up.
4. Josh Anderson's buyout after the upcoming 24-25 season is not perfect but palatable (it peaks at 3.4m cap penalty for the 26-27 season, by then Laine is gone or re-signed; otherwise it is below 2m for the other three seasons of the buy-out)
5. I wouldn't use a buy out on Gallagher without seeing if he's LTIR-worthy (also, he's just a better player than Anderson)
6. Guhle shouldn't be more than 5m but let's assume he's signs a whopping 7.5m cap hit earns it with a monster year
7. Assuming a 92m cap ceiling: the Existing 61m + Laine 8.7m + Guhle 7.5m = 14.8m + 10.5m to call up ELCs, sign some bottom6ers, and sign a big UFA.
8. Assuming the above, for UFAs and trade targets at July 1 2025 for the 25-26 season we should have 15-17m available. (keep in mind Hutson, Matheson, and Dach need renewals after 25-26, but by then Laine's cap hit is gone and the cap will go up more)

I think ultimately, this little exercise shows that even in a Laine-pessimistic scenario we won't be in a bad position even with Laine sputtering and struggling. I think it's a therefore worthwhile 'risk' and fits well within Kent Hughes' long-term planning.

If Laine succeeds: awesome
If Laine doesn't succeed: we won't be worse for wear whatsoever

Now the question is the cost to acquire Laine. If it's 'expensive' to acquire him, then forget it. If it's some futures like Barron or 2nd round picks, it's probably worthwhile.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Laine with retention (2 seasons)
vs
Laine with no retention but Anderson's 3 seasons in the package
I think that if Anderson does not have the Jackets on his 5 team NTC list, the trade is workable if we give the Jackets prospects.

4/1 trade and one that does not hurt our future too much. We get to keep the Flames/Panthers 1st.
* Barron (NHL ready and rare RD with size/skating/shot)
* Kapanen (Hard to include in the package but got to give to get).
* Mesar (Turning pro and likely needs 1 or 2 AHL seasons)
* Anderson (NHL contract and we take Laine's full cap hit).

Probability of this hurting us? Laine walks and assets we move do very well. Fair chance. Barron and Kapanen can be good NHL players in their prime.

 

[B1g B1rd]

I've said this before:

1) We take Laine with full salary, we give a 3rd pick. If they retain 25%, we give a 2nd and maybe a B prospect (Farrell, Kidney, Heineman, Tuch...)
or
2) Anderson for Laine, straight up

Either 1 or 2 or good bye Charlie...

 

[WeThreeKings]

Columbus is definitely on Anderson's limited NTC.

 

[smirob]

Do we think Anderson has clb on his no trade list?

 

[morhilane]

Columbus is definitely on Anderson's limited NTC.

He only has a 5 teams NTC. He might have run out of spots before he could put it in...

 

[Deus ex machina]

Laine with retention (2 seasons)
vs
Laine with no retention but Anderson's 3 seasons in the package
I think that if Anderson does not have the Jackets on his 5 team NTC list, the trade is workable if we give the Jackets prospects.

4/1 trade and one that does not hurt our future too much. We get to keep the Flames/Panthers 1st.
* Barron (NHL ready and rare RD with size/skating/shot)
* Kapanen (Hard to include in the package but got to give to get).
* Mesar (Turning pro and likely needs 1 or 2 AHL seasons)
* Anderson (NHL contract and we take Laine's full cap hit).

Probability of this hurting us? Laine walks and assets we move do very well. Fair chance. Barron and Kapanen can be good NHL players in their prime.

That'd be equivalent to giving up assets to get rid of Anderson. I don't see the Habs doing this when they still have enough cap space to keep him.
And they still need Anderson's size on the bottom 6.

I don't think they would give up that much assets either for Laine with retention. He'd be just a temporary fix.

 

[Weltschmerz]

Do we think Anderson has clb on his no trade list?

Don’t forget Laine has trade protection as well.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Trading Anderson would be a win. He needs a change of scenery too. But I just don't see Columbus doing this. We'd have to give them a lot more.

Yeah, I don't think there is any chance Columbus has any interest in taking back Anderson and I don't even think Anderson would accept this with his NTC.

I'd take a chance on Laine and give up that other 1st we have for next season + a prospect.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Don’t forget Laine has trade protection as well.

I don’t get why Laine would want to come to an insane market. Scrutiny would be huge. A place like Nashville would make more sense and he’d get to play with. Stamkos on a team trying to contend. Columbus wants youth, they could give Askaroth…

 

[Spring in Fialta]

I haven't looked at their cap situation but I'd be shocked if Nashville could come close to fitting in Laine's money given all they spent on July 1st.

 

[Egresch]

Don’t forget Laine has trade protection as well.

That is prerequisite No. 1. If Laine even wants to talk to MTL, then HuGo can arrange the trade. If not, no discussion.