I’m big on acquiring Laine but to play the other side for a moment: if he struggles in the 24-25 season with form and being out of action, it’s going to be a pain in the ass having 8.7m "unaccounted for" in the 25-26 season when considering that we'd have 12m in Gallagher and Anderson already locked up there. That's 8.7m that could go to acquiring a premiere UFA or trade target in case Laine doesn't turn out to be that guy.
As it stands, for the 25-26 season we have 61m in cap commitments (give or take some ELCs) and a salary cap of at least 90m (likelier 92m). Without using any LTIR, we have about 30m in cap space for the 25-26 season and need to re-sign Guhle, call-up Demidov and maybe some other ELCs, and acquire/secure several bottom6ers to replace Armia, Dvorak, etc.
It would be a shame to miss out on the 2025 UFA bonanza because Patrick Laine's stinkin' up the joint...
However (back to being a Laine-optimist):
- We have Petry+Allen's dead cap (4.2m) off the books as of the end of this year
- Price's 10.5m is in its last year in the 25-26 season and just like Shea Weber his contract can likely be dealt away to a team after LTIR space after his July 1st 5.5m bonus is paid (with the remainder: 2m in-season wages)
- If Price's contract is retained, we theoretically can spend 10.5m more and utilising LTIR means doing so to maximise the 'additional' cap space; Laine's 8.7 is a good way to fill 'er up.
- Josh Anderson's buyout after the upcoming 24-25 season is not perfect but palatable (it peaks at 3.4m cap penalty for the 26-27 season, by then Laine is gone or re-signed; otherwise it is below 2m for the other three seasons of the buy-out)
- I wouldn't use a buy out on Gallagher without seeing if he's LTIR-worthy (also, he's just a better player than Anderson)
- Guhle shouldn't be more than 5m but let's assume he's signs a whopping 7.5m cap hit earns it with a monster year
- Assuming a 92m cap ceiling: the Existing 61m + Laine 8.7m + Guhle 7.5m = 14.8m + 10.5m to call up ELCs, sign some bottom6ers, and sign a big UFA.
- Assuming the above, for UFAs and trade targets at July 1 2025 for the 25-26 season we should have 15-17m available. (keep in mind Hutson, Matheson, and Dach need renewals after 25-26, but by then Laine's cap hit is gone and the cap will go up more)
I think ultimately, this little exercise shows that even in a Laine-pessimistic scenario we won't be in a bad position even with Laine sputtering and struggling. I think it's a therefore worthwhile 'risk' and fits well within Kent Hughes' long-term planning.
If Laine succeeds: awesome
If Laine doesn't succeed: we won't be worse for wear whatsoever
Now the question is the cost to acquire Laine. If it's 'expensive' to acquire him, then forget it. If it's some futures like Barron or 2nd round picks, it's probably worthwhile.