Habs has one of the most green unproven Ds in the league, it doesn't mean it will be the worst one. As for the rest, I guess Habs management isn't evaluating the league the same way you do.
HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #81
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Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Habs roster heading into this season has less question marks as last year heading in. Our roster (laugh or not) is better this year if we don't have historic injuries again.
Habs under MSL which includes before and after trade deadline was around bottom 8th pace.
Bottom 3 is possible but way too many are getting emotionally attached to it. Other teams have gotten better (on paper) but the game is not played on paper. I have seen these predictions over and over again over the years and it just don't fall like that.
Agreed. His narrative (as well as others) is reaching for anything to diminish any rebound the Habs may have. Habs don't have one of the worse D in the NHL. However, without Eddy for a long time, we have to go with more youth so who knows how that plays out.
There is no way to prove we will finish bottom 3 or any other spot. I can be anywhere from bottom 10 to bottom 12 ish. I feel we will be in the group behind the playoffs. Somewhere in that mix.
Walksss
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Right cause teams trying to make the playoffs have a top 4 d-core that consists of David Savard, Mike Matheson, Chris Wideman, and a broke down Joel Edmundson. If Edmundson misses significant time we're gonna be even more reliant on kids who have barely seen NHL minutes, that is not a playoff teams makeup and our management knows that.
I'm shocked that posters here still think we're trying to win games, every move made by the new management suggests we're not doing anything this year and yet the enthusiasm from some has not ceased. Ya'll in for a long season lol. We didn't sign a single free agent but we're competing? We took on other teams salary dumps for draft picks but we're trying to win games? We traded away productive vets at the deadline only to never replace them in any way. What an interesting strategy to try to win hockey games.
Bottom 3 will be hard to achieve just because you gotta have a lot go wrong in a season on top of a bad roster, but it is definitely in the range of outcomes. However, it is far more likely we finish last place overall than we finish in a playoff spot, quote me on that.
I think they do, they just can‘t say : we will suck and not think about making the series.
Only two rookies will make the team, they have two defensive specialists but only one would be considered a 4D, Matheson whom offensive upside I like but nothing more than a 4D either. I don‘t think anybody in the league see Barron or Guhle as top 2Dmen next year not only me.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I'm shocked that some posters are ignoring what the players and management have said. The part you are overlooking is bottom 3 has similar probability to just sneaking in the playoffs. If you were going to bet your house on it, you would probably bet bottom 5-10 range or bottom 8-12.
Project MSL record from last year to a full year and it's bottom 8 ish (+/-). That's probably the best prediction any one of us fans can make. Anybody pushing for much higher or much lower than this are reaching but yeah, there are different outcomes with different probabilities but that gets thrown out the window in a few weeks once they play games.
To be clear I don‘t care about being bottom 3, I want to have fun watching this team, I just don‘t see how they finish better than anybody in the Atlantic trying to be realistic.
It‘s not about what I want but what I see : PHI, CHI and ARI are likely the bottom 3 teams, even though maybe Torts can pull off some miracle over a one year period you never know.
Then you have teams rebuilding like MTL but MTL is only in the second year of the rebuild.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I personally avoid the who moves up and who moves down predictions. Atlantic is tough and we all agree with that but this Habs roster is better than what we had heading into last year. We had historic amount of injuries and we were very deflated after that cup run where Danault walked, and Weber/Price went on LTIR.
This is far from a sure shot bottom 3 finish IMO. Just as far of a reach as saying we will battle for the playoffs. I say we are in the middle of those two predictions when it's all said and done.
In March April they were 9-16-4, not close to the playoffs by any means, I am not saying they will be that bad, but looking at bottom 8 teams last year, all have gotten better except PHI BUF ARI CHI.
Walksss
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What NHL team has a worse D?
Management cannot say 'we're trying to lose games for a better draft pick'. It can't be done, in any case, ever. Not even Arizona's management can say that, ever. That is not the smoking gun you seem to think it is. All management say the same talking points league wide whether they are contenders or not, how is that a point to discuss?
Players always want to win, that also never changes. You can't expect the coaches and players to tank for a draft pick, nor should we want them to. Also not a point against the tank.
The real substance is that every single team in the Atlantic has better players than we do. It doesn't matter much beyond that, we are the worst team in the division and one of the worst teams in the NHL.
There are 3 teams max that have a worse roster than us and you can debate 2 of them, we are in any conversation for last place this year. That is the reality, no feelings about it.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
MSL record projected for a full season which includes before and after trade deadline is around 8th last.
Add Dach, Monhahan, Dadonov, and a healthier roster with better team confidence. Also add growth from Suzuki and Caufield.
I hope we get a top 3 shot at Bedard but my gut says we finish in the bottom 5-10 range or bottom 8-12 range. Something like that.
DAChampion
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We're not supposed to talk politics here, but imo Michkov should be passed on at number two, as the political tensions between Russia and the West do not look to be resolving.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I've done your approach before and I've learned from it. Every season is different and I see the Habs rebounding to some degree. So IMO, bottom 3 finish has similar probability to sneaking in the playoffs. I say we finish in the middle of these two predictions.
I would not entirely ignore what management/players are saying. And I would steer very far from thinking you know more as a fan than they do. If you want to get attached to another bottom 3 finish, go right ahead. It's not impossible.
Decide that on draft day. Lots can happen from now till then.
I think Habs finish 3-8 bottom, ARI and CHI seem to be sure bottom 2 teams, PHI seems very weak, then you‘ve got the group with MTL BUF SJS SEA ANA. I don‘t see how MTL finishes above teams like OTT NJD CBJ which they would need to in order to reach bottom 12. Now every year has its lot of surprise which is the beauty of sports
Walksss
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My 'approach' is simply to use common sense and look at the available evidence and the landscape around the NHL. And then by looking at the moves management made this offseason it seems fairly obvious they had no plans to bolster the lineup to try to win a single extra game this season. That's a definitive direction to head in and fine by me but it seems undeniable. Your 'approach' appears to be to ignore most of that and post about how you feel with an 'imo' disclaimer, not really much substance tbh.
Again every single management team in any professional sport will say the exact same thing in every season, "they are there to compete and win games", or some variation of that. Please stop quoting that as some kind of proof, it means nothing. If you can find a single example of a professional sport teams implying they are tanking for a better draft pick please post it.
I suppose anything is possible, we could have Caufield score 50, Allen play lights out and the kids all surprise and we get into the playoffs. Then once you're in the playoffs 'anything can happen'. Didn't we just live through that just recently? If that's the case I guess it's just as likely we win the stanley cup as miss the playoffs
. Let's hope this management team is smarter than that, I'm really hoping they are.Gorton said they would spend but I am sure he doesn't expect to be in contention for a playoff spot. Of course if they were close to a playoff spot he would have to make an attempt to bolster the roster.
The Rangers admitted they were tanking. Arizona might as well have since they traded almost every veteran away. Chicago is tanking now.My 'approach' is simply to use common sense and look at the available evidence and the landscape around the NHL. And then by looking at the moves management made this offseason it seems fairly obvious they had no plans to bolster the lineup to try to win a single extra game this season. That's a definitive direction to head in and fine by me but it seems undeniable. Your 'approach' appears to be to ignore most of that and post about how you feel with an 'imo' disclaimer, not really much substance tbh.
Again every single management team in any professional sport will say the exact same thing in every season, "they are there to compete and win games", or some variation of that. Please stop quoting that as some kind of proof, it means nothing. If you can find a single example of a professional sport teams implying they are tanking for a better draft pick please post it.
I suppose anything is possible, we could have Caufield score 50, Allen play lights out and the kids all surprise and we get into the playoffs. Then once you're in the playoffs 'anything can happen'. Didn't we just live through that just recently? If that's the case I guess it's just as likely we win the stanley cup as miss the playoffs
Walksss
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None of those teams ever said they were purposefully tanking, even though we all knew they were/are. Bill Armstrong is in interviews saying how they are demanding on their players because they take pride in being a competitive organization lololol. The point is, they all say the same thing, this is a business first and foremost, and the owner is NOT going to have you talk down the product as the GM. That is so obvious it's silly to discuss, who cares what they say, watch what they do.
Does it really? Maybe if Montreal does nothing going forward and actually removes skill from the lineup even more, but finishing out of the worst three is not as far-fetched as some want to make it seem.
If Guhle and Harris just play steady D with solid puck movement, that D is not as horrible as you would think. We're not talking about winning a Cup or even making the playoffs. There's 16 teams beyond that and thirteen better than the worst three.
Montreal, even with its weaknesses, can easily be better than worst three.
Less injuries
Progression under new coach and system
Rebounds from career worsts
Contract years
Teams underestimating last year's worst OA team
Not talking about being an all-star team, again...
salbutera
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The fact every team “improves” logically translates to pts margin between top to bottom only decreases…. there will be more points distributed amongst more teams than years past - due to closeness of games / more tight games, potentially resulting in more injuries etc.
Remember no one said Mtl “will” make the playoffs, they will strive to “compete” in every game towards end goal of making the playoffs
There is a lot of chances it does not happen, but the way I see it.
If : Caufield becomes a 40g scorer with between 80/90 pts
Suzuki becomes a 75 / 85 pts player who is really good defensively
and
If : Monahan return to form to a 80pts player and we get a 1 other winger that becomes a 80 point player
We have a top 2 lines that could scare any team. Especially with our bottom 6 that is actually way above nhl average.
Same thing with the D.
If : Guhle or another young player instantly becomes a game changer and an important player for the team and Matheson fill the void left by petry. We actually have a pretty good D. Especially if also Harris, Barron or Xhekaj become at least average at nhl level. (for a third pairing)
Add to that Allen being fairly ok and Montambault being a ok back up.
We really well could exceed expectation and by a lot. Because we a lot of value in our team that we can't really assess what they could bring.
It takes a lot of things going well. But those are all thing that theorycally could happen.
If : Caufield becomes a 40g scorer with between 80/90 pts
Suzuki becomes a 75 / 85 pts player who is really good defensively
and
If : Monahan return to form to a 80pts player and we get a 1 other winger that becomes a 80 point player
We have a top 2 lines that could scare any team. Especially with our bottom 6 that is actually way above nhl average.
Same thing with the D.
If : Guhle or another young player instantly becomes a game changer and an important player for the team and Matheson fill the void left by petry. We actually have a pretty good D. Especially if also Harris, Barron or Xhekaj become at least average at nhl level. (for a third pairing)
Add to that Allen being fairly ok and Montambault being a ok back up.
We really well could exceed expectation and by a lot. Because we a lot of value in our team that we can't really assess what they could bring.
It takes a lot of things going well. But those are all thing that theorycally could happen.
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Can't argue with that, but that can't be used as an argument to say we will definitely finish in the worst three as some are doing.
I think it's important to note, as you have, that, even with a weak roster at some key positions, bottom three is hard to achieve because you need to have a lot go wrong in a season on top of a bad roster.
I'm pretty sure other teams -- who were in the running -- would have preferred to finish last overall rather than see Montreal get the pick, yet they didn't, even with shells of a lineup.
Odds are greater that Montreal finishes between 5-10 than in the worst three because the team has put into place a solid structure to help players progress.
By not playing declining veterans in a futile attempt to win 0 - (-1), the youngsters' growth won't get stunted by limited TOI and, as the season wears on, those players will continue to progress and get better. Losing at the end of the season, especially with teams resting their playoff lineups, won't be the foregone conclusion some are making it out to be.
In either case, for the kids' development, getting better as the season plays out should be the aim, not losing extra games in the hopes of finishing in the worst three.
Sterling Archer
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Yes it does, particularly on D and in net. You're hoping that TWO rookies play above their heads like vets and help carry the defence. One injury away from an AHL D and two from ECHL. I'm not holding on hope that they excel all season long and avoid any serious injuries when Eddy is already out indefinitely.
You can hope for the best, but I'm expecting this team to be pretty bad in it's current configuration. If they make some substantial changes, I may change my tune, but this is currently a consensus last place team.
Have to agree. Haven't seen an 80-point player in Montreal since Kovalev. Never mind 2.
There is not a lot of chances but :
The way I see it : When Sutter came in, he really didn't like Monahan's game and gave a lot of the opportunities to Lindholm instead, even when Monahan was not injured.
Plus, the injurie factor that may have slowed him down.
If under St-Louis, he gets icetime with good players and good opportunities. Nothing is out of the question. He already did it and he's only 27 year old.
There is a lot of factor that could have affected his production and injuries is not the only one.
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