TRADE or KEEP Hronek?

[geebster]

Ok lets make the statistical argument then....
last 2 yrs by defenseman

28th in pts ES
88th in goals ES
41st primary assists ES
38th ATOI all situations
53rd CF% top 120 D only ES
13th GF%
65th XGF%

Average = 46th
46th in Cap Hit for Defenseman = 5.8- 6 million

Production/pts comps
3 superior = Dunn 8.8% Hanifin 8.8% Toews 8.68%
3 above = Faulk 7.98% Weegar 7.58% Forsling 6.89
3 below = Sanheim 7.58% Pionk 7.21% Severson 7.58%
past comp = Dumba 7.55% after 50 and 34pt seasons

3 up 3 down average w/Dumba = 7.48%
88m x 7.48% = 6.58m

*Agent says right shot D are premium 10%?? Still only gets you to 7.2-7.3m. Problem with that argument is it's fictional based on the data i just supplied
*Team argues Hronek leeches pts from Hughes + 2nd half and playoffs production dropped. Also only 5 goals.

Team is rumoured to be using Severson comp 7.58% which puts him at 6.67m

Deal should be 6.5 to 6.8 when done if long term. I would pay a bit more 6.9 even 7 if i got 4yrs which i prefer. I'm not that confident in durability and his offensive IQ being worth premium pay into his 30s

Averaging the positions across those is a bit odd. Having raw ES goals, GF% and xGF without goals against stats weighs this strongly towards goals for, which really isn't as important as the CF% etc.

I agree with your takeaway though. Theres strong objective arguments that can be made in arbitration that really hurt his pay and doesn't make him a lot more than what was reportedly offered.

 

[RobertKron]

Was Gillis' development system any better? The best "developmental" success is arguably Hutton and he spent very little time in the AHL and technically his AHL time wasn't under Gillis. Who was the best "NHL player" who spent time in the AHL under Gillis? Gaunce, Connauton, and Schneider if you really wanted to include him? I think it's been a systematic issue. At least under Benning there are a couple of NHL players who developed in the AHL: Gadjovich, Demko, MacEwen, Chatfield. Even Brisebois and Lockwood came close.

Not sure why you're asking about Gillis here, but NCAA UFA Chris Tanev is a decent "NHL player," I'd think.

But yes, the development program under Gillis fell into disarray when their farm team became an NHL franchise and they got stuck with the notoriously independent Chicago Wolves. IIRC, he was already at work on getting the Canucks their own AHL team. It would be something of an indictment of Benning's management if he was somehow able to continue to suffer the same "systematic" issues as existed during the period when they straight up lost their farm system.

The point I was making was that the only reason to imagine that it would be impossible for Forsling to succeed with the Canucks would be due to all the other prospects that shit the bed under Benning, which I think is unfair as that's likely a combination of nature and nurture at work. It's not comparable at all to the Grabner situation.

 

[ChilliBilly]

I genuinely believe if Walsh takes this to arbitration, he's in for a surprise at how much lower they award Hronek. He's literally trying to catapult 41 games into a massive payday while completely disregarding a dismal second half and playoff performance.

Don't me wrong. I do think Hronek has more to give, especially at 26, but like I've said before, take a shorter term deal and show us you're worth 8M+. If he signed for 3-4 years and blew up to 50-60 points each season, I'd happily give him his payday. He wants it before he's done anything noteworthy.

yeah the problem is this thing called the salary cap. they can not afford to give Hronek, big. Z, Blueger and Lindholm all what they want. And Joshua.

 

[Hammer79]

Time to move on from him very soon. We CAN NOT allow him to walk to UFA with an Arbitration award. If they can't get a deal done by the draft, flip him for a 1st round pick (or another young D)

 

[GranvilleIsland]

Keep him.

 

[the big nobody]

Let Myers walk, and use a portion of his cap hit to give Hronek a raise. Use a portion of the remainder to give Zadorov a raise. That gives a top-four of Hughes, Hronek, Soucy, and Zadorov. I'm confident in that top-four, provided Soucy can remain healthy. I guess that's a big 'if.' Cole could be re-signed to basically the same contract as he signed last summer. Plug a rotating cast or sign a UFA into the sixth slot. Problem solved.

 

[theguardianII]

Let Myers walk, and use a portion of his cap hit to give Hronek a raise. Use a portion of the remainder to give Zadorov a raise. That gives a top-four of Hughes, Hronek, Soucy, and Zadorov. I'm confident in that top-four, provided Soucy can remain healthy. I guess that's a big 'if.' Cole could be re-signed to basically the same contract as he signed last summer. Plug a rotating cast or sign a UFA into the sixth slot. Problem solved.

Hronek doesn't want to be here.
He didn't sign here.
He doesn't like the lime light.
It has been known since he was traded for that he would be an arbitration, I guess Allvin thought they could work on him and change his mind. Allvin did get the media guys to ignore him mostly.

Fans have to remember this is the most expensive place in NA to live.

Sometimes family is important.

Edler would not waive his clause even for 3 months because he wanted to not move his family.

Schenn was washed up and out of the league, younger than Zadorov, changed his game and got even better than in his prime, Zadorov is doing the same.

IMO it is best if the team keeps as many players that WANT to be here for other than just the money, those players will play because they might feel more invested.

There are players that are "professionals" the won't use their bodies up saving them for the next contract.

Guentzel doesn't want to come to Vancouver, for a playoff run at the TDL maybe but not long term, he wants to win another cup and this team is talking about getting rid of 50% of its defence and losing 50% of it's forwards and not having much draft capital. At this time! Losing 4 defence, 4 forwards, 1 goalie all unsigned.

Utah will be a massive player in FA.
Columbus is out to make GOOD news.

 

[Hit the post]

Let Myers walk, and use a portion of his cap hit to give Hronek a raise. Use a portion of the remainder to give Zadorov a raise. That gives a top-four of Hughes, Hronek, Soucy, and Zadorov. I'm confident in that top-four, provided Soucy can remain healthy. I guess that's a big 'if.' Cole could be re-signed to basically the same contract as he signed last summer. Plug a rotating cast or sign a UFA into the sixth slot. Problem solved.

I'd still try & see if he can be re-signed for "3rd pairing money" on a short-term deal. If not, adios.

 

[ziploc]

Hronek doesn't want to be here.
He didn't sign here.
He doesn't like the lime light.
It has been known since he was traded for that he would be an arbitration, I guess Allvin thought they could work on him and change his mind. Allvin did get the media guys to ignore him mostly.

Fans have to remember this is the most expensive place in NA to live.

Sometimes family is important.

Edler would not waive his clause even for 3 months because he wanted to not move his family.

Schenn was washed up and out of the league, younger than Zadorov, changed his game and got even better than in his prime, Zadorov is doing the same.

IMO it is best if the team keeps as many players that WANT to be here for other than just the money, those players will play because they might feel more invested.

There are players that are "professionals" the won't use their bodies up saving them for the next contract.

Guentzel doesn't want to come to Vancouver, for a playoff run at the TDL maybe but not long term, he wants to win another cup and this team is talking about getting rid of 50% of its defence and losing 50% of it's forwards and not having much draft capital. At this time! Losing 4 defence, 4 forwards, 1 goalie all unsigned.

Utah will be a massive player in FA.
Columbus is out to make GOOD news.

You forget that his wife and his dog really, really like it here.

 

[David71]

The real issue is what happens if he isn't signed by training camp. Allvin's history is that he doesn't wait around.

If Hronek is set to head into his final season as an RFA without a long-term contract, then he's probably on the trade block by the end of summer. But since he's still an RFA, the Canucks have the luxury of sorting out some of their more pressing contract concerns for guys who could walk this July 1st.

What's the market for a guy like Hronek? He cost the Canucks a first rounder (17th overall) and a second rounder in the (40-43 range). I doubt they'd be able to recoup that in any trade--but you never know.

or he could get traded within 3 weeks.. doesnt need to be end of the summer.

 

[Ita]

Hronek doesn't want to be here.
He didn't sign here.
He doesn't like the lime light.
It has been known since he was traded for that he would be an arbitration, I guess Allvin thought they could work on him and change his mind. Allvin did get the media guys to ignore him mostly.

Fans have to remember this is the most expensive place in NA to live.

Sometimes family is important.

Have you ever been to SF/Silicone Valley, NY, or even Miami or LA?
Vancouver is not even close to those cities.

 

[the big nobody]

Vancouver is only the most expensive city in North America relative to average local incomes, which are rather low. Suffice it to say that's not a problem for Hronek, or anyone else on the team...

 

[F A N]

Not sure why you're asking about Gillis here, but NCAA UFA Chris Tanev is a decent "NHL player," I'd think.

I asked because you specifically mentioned development system under Benning. I think it's been a systematic issue and given Forsling would have entered the Canucks' development system in the early years of Benning's regime I think it's relevant.

I didn't include Tanev the same way I didn't include Stecher or the first round picks that jumped right into the NHL and contended for the Calder. I'm not going to attribute Tanev's success to Canucks' developmental system. I shouldn't say Hutton was a development success. Connauton would be a better fit.

But yes, the development program under Gillis fell into disarray when their farm team became an NHL franchise and they got stuck with the notoriously independent Chicago Wolves. IIRC, he was already at work on getting the Canucks their own AHL team. It would be something of an indictment of Benning's management if he was somehow able to continue to suffer the same "systematic" issues as existed during the period when they straight up lost their farm system.

Their farm team didn't become an NHL franchise. That is obviously incorrect. But regardless, did it fall into disarray? The Canucks had a similar sharing management with the Moose and hired the head coach. Was there a specific player or players whose development you believe to have been impacted from by the move from Manitoba to Chicago?

The point I was making was that the only reason to imagine that it would be impossible for Forsling to succeed with the Canucks would be due to all the other prospects that shit the bed under Benning, which I think is unfair as that's likely a combination of nature and nurture at work. It's not comparable at all to the Grabner situation.

Sure. I have long felt that Grabner didn't get a fair shake here. Forsling would likely have received the opposite treatment where he would have been more likely to be pushed into a position he wasn't ready for rather than have opportunies held back. Then again, it's hard to predict how the old version of him would fare under Green. He certainly didn't fare all that well under Quenneville in Chicago.

 

[RobertKron]

I asked because you specifically mentioned development system under Benning. I think it's been a systematic issue and given Forsling would have entered the Canucks' development system in the early years of Benning's regime I think it's relevant.

Forsling hit the AHL in Benning's third season.

I didn't include Tanev the same way I didn't include Stecher or the first round picks that jumped right into the NHL and contended for the Calder. I'm not going to attribute Tanev's success to Canucks' developmental system. I shouldn't say Hutton was a development success. Connauton would be a better fit.

Tanev spent significant parts of three seasons in the AHL. Stetcher played 4 games.

Their farm team didn't become an NHL franchise. That is obviously incorrect. But regardless, did it fall into disarray? The Canucks had a similar sharing management with the Moose and hired the head coach. Was there a specific player or players whose development you believe to have been impacted from by the move from Manitoba to Chicago?

The Canucks had a well-documented, incredibly close relationship with the Moose and Heisinger, while the Wolves are notoriously independent - to the point that they've now refused NHL affiliation. The Wolves later basically flat out said that they weren't very interested in working with their NHL affiliate on player development, and IIRC, Gillis also openly said that the situation was frustrating as the Canucks couldn't stop the Wolves from just signing AHL vets and playing them over affiliate players. That's a huge contrast with regard to player development when compared to the relationship the Canucks had with Heisinger and the Moose, where Heisinger and his staff in many ways acted as an extension of the Canucks.

As for specific players, there are so many variables and unknowns that it's impossible to say with any certainty, but IIRC guys like Sauve and Sweatt kind of stalled out once they got to Chicago. I think Connauton also kind of lagged, and then turned it around pretty quick once he got away from the Wolves, but you never know what was going on there. You also wonder if an obviously-talented-enough player like Rodin maybe has a different arc if he arrives in North America to join the Moose instead of the Wolves. I also don't think it's a coincidence that the Thrashers struggled to develop players through the Wolves.

And yes, obviously the Thrashers became the Jets, but the ownership group was the same, the GM of the Moose became their Director of Hockey Ops, the head coach became the Jets' head coach, and their AHL players and coaches - especially any significant ones - went on to be Jets property.

But yes, I'd say that losing your very closely connected farm team and replacing it with one that is famously uninterested in player development would throw the farm system into disarray. Beyond that, you're saying that it's a systematic issue that just coincidentally began at right around the exact time that the Canucks lost the Moose?

 

[VanJack]

As the old saying goes, when it comes to Hronek it might be a case of 'familiarity breeding contempt'.

If you break down his last couple of years statistically, and look around the league at what similar d-men are being paid, then it's easy justify a $7m deal with term.

But still fresh in the mind of Canucks fans is the fact that he hit the wall a bit in the last 15 games and carried that lack of momentum in the playoffs--where he may be been playing hurt.

A valuable right-shot defender, who's still only 25, and is good for 40-60 points a season. I mean it's not very easy to find guys like this--which is the reason the Canucks gave up so much to get him.

 

[theguardianII]

You forget that his wife and his dog really, really like it here.

They don't live here, they're visiting
She likes pot?

 

[StickShift]

If the Canucks do trade Filip Hronek—I have a feeling that it will rhyme with this Jim Rutherford trade from 10-years ago:

Confirmed with Link: - James Neal traded to Nashville for Patric Hornqvist and Nick Spaling

Per TSN Link Coming

forums.hfboards.com

The guy is not afraid of trading players on perceived career highs.