- Oct 26, 2019
- 2,053
- 3,186
Averaging the positions across those is a bit odd. Having raw ES goals, GF% and xGF without goals against stats weighs this strongly towards goals for, which really isn't as important as the CF% etc.Ok lets make the statistical argument then....
last 2 yrs by defenseman
28th in pts ES
88th in goals ES
41st primary assists ES
38th ATOI all situations
53rd CF% top 120 D only ES
13th GF%
65th XGF%
Average = 46th
46th in Cap Hit for Defenseman = 5.8- 6 million
Production/pts comps
3 superior = Dunn 8.8% Hanifin 8.8% Toews 8.68%
3 above = Faulk 7.98% Weegar 7.58% Forsling 6.89
3 below = Sanheim 7.58% Pionk 7.21% Severson 7.58%
past comp = Dumba 7.55% after 50 and 34pt seasons
3 up 3 down average w/Dumba = 7.48%
88m x 7.48% = 6.58m
*Agent says right shot D are premium 10%?? Still only gets you to 7.2-7.3m. Problem with that argument is it's fictional based on the data i just supplied
*Team argues Hronek leeches pts from Hughes + 2nd half and playoffs production dropped. Also only 5 goals.
Team is rumoured to be using Severson comp 7.58% which puts him at 6.67m
Deal should be 6.5 to 6.8 when done if long term. I would pay a bit more 6.9 even 7 if i got 4yrs which i prefer. I'm not that confident in durability and his offensive IQ being worth premium pay into his 30s
I agree with your takeaway though. Theres strong objective arguments that can be made in arbitration that really hurt his pay and doesn't make him a lot more than what was reportedly offered.