TRADE or KEEP Hronek?

[Hansen]

All the galaxy braining alternate timelines with Forsling is pointless, he wasn't going to succeed in Vancouver. Chicago gave up on him and dumped him in the De Haan deal, and then Carolina gave up on him and waived him, Panthers claimed him and Quenneville liked him a lot and gave him rope and chances that he wouldn't have had otherwise. It's the same as people thinking Michael Grabner was going to be sick if he stayed here.

I liked Forsling a ton as a prospect and felt good about him from day 1 (check his draft thread), but he was never a blue chip prospect or anything more than a long shot here. Benning's trade of him for Clendening was stupid in a vacuum because Clendening sucked at the time, not because Forsling went on to be a top pairing dman 9 years later

 

[RobertKron]

All the galaxy braining alternate timelines with Forsling is pointless, he wasn't going to succeed in Vancouver. Chicago gave up on him and dumped him in the De Haan deal, and then Carolina gave up on him and waived him, Panthers claimed him and Quenneville liked him a lot and gave him rope and chances that he wouldn't have had otherwise. It's the same as people thinking Michael Grabner was going to be sick if he stayed here.

I liked Forsling a ton as a prospect and felt good about him from day 1 (check his draft thread), but he was never a blue chip prospect or anything more than a long shot here. Benning's trade of him for Clendening was stupid in a vacuum because Clendening sucked at the time, not because Forsling went on to be a top pairing dman 9 years later

There's really no telling how it would have gone, other than that the Canucks' dev system was basically garbage anyway under Benning. This isn't like a Grabner, though, where the guy had been around and had a pattern that continued, and especially because Forsling had ages to go before the team would have lost him on waivers. He showed stretches of strong play at times with the Hawks, and who knows how things go in a re-run.

 

[Hoglander]

Canucks are in a tough spot with Hronek, and taking him to arbitration would be a big mistake. He'd be due a substantial raise on a one year contract. And if it looked like he was playing out his option year with the aim of being a UFA, the Canucks might take a real hit trying to trade his contract.

A three-year bridge deal might be the best option for all parties. But undoubtedly the Canucks will have to cough up more money than they're probably happy about.

But then they knew this day was coming when they acquired him from the Red Wings. Detroit wasn't interested in extending him. So it now falls to Allvin and Canucks to find a way to make it work.

Hronek very likely isn't interested in a bridge deal, he'll be looking longterm. The guy is getting a significant raise no matter what.

Trading him leaves a gaping hole at RHD. Any UFA replacement would be overpayed, and I don't really see a fit there to replace those 23/24 minutes per game, especially longterm. We go UFA, and we take a step back on defense, while overpaying, and then needing 35 year old Myers (assuming he comes back)to play more minutes.

As far as arbitration and losing him to UFA, I think it's pretty rare that top pairing rhd hit the market at 27 years old. At worst, management moves him at the deadline like they did with Horvat. It seems management is aiming for longterm now, so all this talk is likely for nothing.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

But if we don’t replace him with a better RHD, than we will be a objectively worse next year.

What if our top pair is 4 mil cheaper and 5% less effective?

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Hronek very likely isn't interested in a bridge deal, he'll be looking longterm. The guy is getting a significant raise no matter what.

Trading him leaves a gaping hole at RHD. Any UFA replacement would be overpayed, and I don't really see a fit there to replace those 23/24 minutes per game, especially longterm. We go UFA, and we take a step back on defense, while overpaying, and then needing 35 year old Myers (assuming he comes back)to play more minutes.

As far as arbitration and losing him to UFA, I think it's pretty rare that top pairing rhd hit the market at 27 years old. At worst, management moves him at the deadline like they did with Horvat. It seems management is aiming for longterm now, so all this talk is likely for nothing.

@SopelFanThe3rd

 

[F A N]

There's really no telling how it would have gone, other than that the Canucks' dev system was basically garbage anyway under Benning. This isn't like a Grabner, though, where the guy had been around and had a pattern that continued, and especially because Forsling had ages to go before the team would have lost him on waivers. He showed stretches of strong play at times with the Hawks, and who knows how things go in a re-run.

Ya it's hard to say. I think Forsling clearly exceeded everyone's expectations here. Had he stayed a Canuck, he might have gotten a chance. The Canucks were looking for a Dman who can QB a PP prior to Hughes. Then again, we have terrible luck. He might get injured or something.

 

[SopelFanThe3rd]

@SopelFanThe3rd

I'm retired.


If the Oilers win the cup I'm done with hockey.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I'm retired.

Hey hey.

We now call it disabled.

If the Oilers win the cup I'm done with hockey.

 

[lawrence]

I'm an advocate of the bare minium of keeping the top 6 and and the top 4 d intact after a strong year type of guy.

we need to try to keep hronek as he's the best partner quinn has ever had.

it reminds me of the time when we had cliff running. with him Mogilny almost scored 60. We let cliff ronning go, Mogilny didn't ever score that much again, we need to try to trade him.

right now his agency thinks hes a 8 million dollar player. I don't think he is. He's done more good than bad for the team, and I think he's a valuable asset for 82 game season. Hes also only 26 so hes very young.

our negotiation floor is that he should be paid around Mckenzie Weegar, Josh morrisey money to the tops, is Noah Hanifan, Devon Toews money which is 7.2. Absolute tops.

I would love to keep him. it would suck and we will take a step back as far as the regular season goes if we lose Hronek. mark my words guys. We will take a step back if we lose Hronek. I do understand its a business and such and I hope we waste this asset. If we have to trade him, I will be sad, and I hope we find a good replacement top 4 dman RHD that can play offence.

 

[Ninjadude]

Trade him as well. Recoup some of the assets you paid for him and then sign some UFAs with a lower cap hit. Those assets can be used at a later date.

 

[Breakers]

I dont think it is unreasonable to ask for a 1st rounder for him

Look at what UFA defenseman have cost just to talk to their agents.

 

[Raistlin]

all these haggling over probably 1 million of overpayment. the bottomline is he is a rare asset, I cannot see an adequate replacement with built in chemistry. He was hurt. Trading him so soon will hurt his market value. he is an asset that should be kept at a slight overpayment based on his age.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Yeah reading between the lines, it looks like he will get something like $7.5 x 7.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

With the cap jumping up Hronek is going to be expensive.

 

[ManVanFan]

all these haggling over probably 1 million of overpayment. the bottomline is he is a rare asset, I cannot see an adequate replacement with built in chemistry. He was hurt. Trading him so soon will hurt his market value. he is an asset that should be kept at a slight overpayment based on his age.

Hockey analysts are talking about the cap being up to 100M in the very near future.

An 8x8 for Hronek this year 9.1% of the cap.
88M @9.1% is 8M
92M @ 9.1% is 8.3M
96M @9.1% is 8.74M
100M @ 9.1% is 9.1M
104M @ 9.1% is 9.5M

That's just a random projection of it going up 4M per year. Could be more or less but imagine in year 5 could be getting 1.5M less than what a top tier defencemen could be signing for.

Why the TML cap is so f***ed is that Matthews signs 8 year money at 4 and 5 year length and so Toronto will never get the benefit of the last years of the deal.

 

[sting101]

Ok lets make the statistical argument then....
last 2 yrs by defenseman

28th in pts ES
88th in goals ES
41st primary assists ES
38th ATOI all situations
53rd CF% top 120 D only ES
13th GF%
65th XGF%

Average = 46th
46th in Cap Hit for Defenseman = 5.8- 6 million

Production/pts comps
3 superior = Dunn 8.8% Hanifin 8.8% Toews 8.68%
3 above = Faulk 7.98% Weegar 7.58% Forsling 6.89
3 below = Sanheim 7.58% Pionk 7.21% Severson 7.58%
past comp = Dumba 7.55% after 50 and 34pt seasons

3 up 3 down average w/Dumba = 7.48%
88m x 7.48% = 6.58m

*Agent says right shot D are premium 10%?? Still only gets you to 7.2-7.3m. Problem with that argument is it's fictional based on the data i just supplied
*Team argues Hronek leeches pts from Hughes + 2nd half and playoffs production dropped. Also only 5 goals.

Team is rumoured to be using Severson comp 7.58% which puts him at 6.67m

Deal should be 6.5 to 6.8 when done if long term. I would pay a bit more 6.9 even 7 if i got 4yrs which i prefer. I'm not that confident in durability and his offensive IQ being worth premium pay into his 30s

 

[MarkMM]

Yeah reading between the lines, it looks like he will get something like $7.5 x 7.

The absolute maximum I'd go, and if that was the cost then if possible I'd still see if there was a path to sign someone else a bit cheaper and trade Hronek for assets to help up front.

Ok lets make the statistical argument then....
last 2 yrs by defenseman

28th in pts ES
88th in goals ES
41st primary assists ES
38th ATOI all situations
53rd CF% top 120 D only ES
13th GF%
65th XGF%

Average = 46th
46th in Cap Hit for Defenseman = 5.8- 6 million

Production/pts comps
3 superior = Dunn 8.8% Hanifin 8.8% Toews 8.68%
3 above = Faulk 7.98% Weegar 7.58% Forsling 6.89
3 below = Sanheim 7.58% Pionk 7.21% Severson 7.58%
past comp = Dumba 7.55% after 50 and 34pt seasons

3 up 3 down average w/Dumba = 7.48%
88m x 7.48% = 6.58m

*Agent says right shot D are premium 10%?? Still only gets you to 7.2-7.3m. Problem with that argument is it's fictional based on the data i just supplied
*Team argues Hronek leeches pts from Hughes + 2nd half and playoffs production dropped. Also only 5 goals.

Team is rumoured to be using Severson comp 7.58% which puts him at 6.67m

Deal should be 6.5 to 6.8 when done if long term. I would pay a bit more 6.9 even 7 if i got 4yrs which i prefer. I'm not that confident in durability and his offensive IQ being worth premium pay into his 30s

Bingo, love this.

 

[GranvilleIsland]

Keep him.

 

[Cancuks]

Either sign him to a one year deal worth around $6.5 million or trade him. Hronek for Chychrun might make some sense. Saves the Canucks cap space and I think he'd excel with Hughes.

 

[ChilliBilly]

Sign if you can get a reasonable deal. Trade him if you can't, or can get a good package for him. He's been good, but not worth the numbers he is apparently asking for.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Trade is ungrateful ass.

Paterson can drive him to the airport.

 

[VanJack]

The real issue is what happens if he isn't signed by training camp. Allvin's history is that he doesn't wait around.

If Hronek is set to head into his final season as an RFA without a long-term contract, then he's probably on the trade block by the end of summer. But since he's still an RFA, the Canucks have the luxury of sorting out some of their more pressing contract concerns for guys who could walk this July 1st.

What's the market for a guy like Hronek? He cost the Canucks a first rounder (17th overall) and a second rounder in the (40-43 range). I doubt they'd be able to recoup that in any trade--but you never know.

 

[credulous]

The real issue is what happens if he isn't signed by training camp. Allvin's history is that he doesn't wait around.

it won't get that far, he's 100% filing for arb

 

[F A N]

There's really no telling how it would have gone, other than that the Canucks' dev system was basically garbage anyway under Benning. This isn't like a Grabner, though, where the guy had been around and had a pattern that continued, and especially because Forsling had ages to go before the team would have lost him on waivers. He showed stretches of strong play at times with the Hawks, and who knows how things go in a re-run.

Was Gillis' development system any better? The best "developmental" success is arguably Hutton and he spent very little time in the AHL and technically his AHL time wasn't under Gillis. Who was the best "NHL player" who spent time in the AHL under Gillis? Gaunce, Connauton, and Schneider if you really wanted to include him? I think it's been a systematic issue. At least under Benning there are a couple of NHL players who developed in the AHL: Gadjovich, Demko, MacEwen, Chatfield. Even Brisebois and Lockwood came close.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Ok lets make the statistical argument then....
last 2 yrs by defenseman

28th in pts ES
88th in goals ES
41st primary assists ES
38th ATOI all situations
53rd CF% top 120 D only ES
13th GF%
65th XGF%

Average = 46th
46th in Cap Hit for Defenseman = 5.8- 6 million

Production/pts comps
3 superior = Dunn 8.8% Hanifin 8.8% Toews 8.68%
3 above = Faulk 7.98% Weegar 7.58% Forsling 6.89
3 below = Sanheim 7.58% Pionk 7.21% Severson 7.58%
past comp = Dumba 7.55% after 50 and 34pt seasons

3 up 3 down average w/Dumba = 7.48%
88m x 7.48% = 6.58m

*Agent says right shot D are premium 10%?? Still only gets you to 7.2-7.3m. Problem with that argument is it's fictional based on the data i just supplied
*Team argues Hronek leeches pts from Hughes + 2nd half and playoffs production dropped. Also only 5 goals.

Team is rumoured to be using Severson comp 7.58% which puts him at 6.67m

Deal should be 6.5 to 6.8 when done if long term. I would pay a bit more 6.9 even 7 if i got 4yrs which i prefer. I'm not that confident in durability and his offensive IQ being worth premium pay into his 30s

I genuinely believe if Walsh takes this to arbitration, he's in for a surprise at how much lower they award Hronek. He's literally trying to catapult 41 games into a massive payday while completely disregarding a dismal second half and playoff performance.

Don't me wrong. I do think Hronek has more to give, especially at 26, but like I've said before, take a shorter term deal and show us you're worth 8M+. If he signed for 3-4 years and blew up to 50-60 points each season, I'd happily give him his payday. He wants it before he's done anything noteworthy.