GDT: Trade and Free agent rumours thread | Post Trade Deadline Edition

[Legion34]

Would knies for Larkin make sense?

McKenna. Matthews
Macielli. Larkin. Nylander
Cowan. Tavares. Robertson

???

 

[Buckley]

You would turn down Hage, Reinbacher, Zharovsky, 2026 1st and seemingly unprotected 2027 1st for Knies?

I think if we revisit this in a few years, it won't look particularly good for turning down.

I get that Knies is a good player, but he isn't going to get more prospects and picks than Quinn Hughes got, even if he has a longer-term contract.

 

[Buckley]

Have we learned nothing about trading 1sts and top prospects for the Carlos, Laughtons, Folignos of the world. It never works in our favour. I’d rather take my chances by reconfiguring what is here and putting in the work vs. looking for the next easy way than deplete this thing anymore. We trade a 1st and Danford for this, I will bash Chayka at every turn. That’s a Tre move.

I don't think anything is going to change here at all. They will try to win now. They won't do something stupid like trade the first overall pick, but I think they will absolutely trade the Colorado pick and some of the second round picks.

 

[phillipmike]

Would knies for Larkin make sense?

McKenna. Matthews
Macielli. Larkin. Nylander
Cowan. Tavares. Robertson

???

Big pass for me. 23 year old who can score 30 and like 70+ points for a 30 year who can score 30 and 70 points.

I get the centre component but I’m not willing to trade my younger pieces for older.

I’m willing to go young for young. I got no commitment from Matthews, and until I do, I’m keeping McKenna, Knies, Cowan and Danford as my new Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly to build around just in case.

 

[LaPlante94]

Carolina might be calling about Knies after this season is done.

 

[fahad203]

Would knies for Larkin make sense?

McKenna. Matthews
Macielli. Larkin. Nylander
Cowan. Tavares. Robertson

???

He's not who you think he is. He's also part of the problem in Detroit
Really lacks any type of intensity, can be inconsistent and doesn't battle hard enough

Hard pass for me.

Really not sure with the new obsession of trading Knies.

 

[Aashir]

Carolina might be calling about Knies after this season is done.

a lot of their pieces are meh tbh

idk what they could be offering could possibly be enticing enough

 

[BurnTheBoats]

Step away from the crack pipe.

Not my fault you can't read & fried all your brain cells + can't come up with plausible options to win this team a cup, you act like a toddler who only wants it his way and if he doesnt get it, you throw out rude remarks.

We should be respectful of one another and come up with good options for this teams future, it just makes you look immature and ignorant.

Learn from your past & become better, no ones perfect but at the end of the day all you can do is improve and become a better version of yourself.

Its like some of the people on this board throw back a few beers after the wife doesnt give them what they want and just come on here to start drama.

Its an example on why we shouldn't be trading away our future in Knies, Cowan, Danford or any younger player in our system and if we rebuild Matthew's, Nylander and Rielly + should be moved.

We're not trying to make the same mistakes that have brought us to where we're at now, go back a few pages on my Marner vs Matthews post....we keep making valuable mistakes.

Sorry but Matthew's is not someone we can build around or win with, until he decides to take care of his body more & be less selfish/be a damn leader.

Nylander probably holds the most value right now then he will for the rest of his career so it also makes sense to move him regardless of his youtube videos showing his condo/and saying he wants to stay, this is a buisness and to improve you can't allow things like that to get in the way.

An example if I worked for a company for 10+ years and never reached my goals for them to evolve/grow, do you think it would be smart for them to keep me on board even if I made a video of me showing my new condo and saying I want to stay.....too me its childish and a snake move by Willie,

McKenna, Knies, Cowan, Danford + are the new face of this organization.....Tavares, Matthew's, Nylander & Reilly have striked out now for 10-years enough with the excuses and what ifs. If there was one player to keep from that rebuild it should have been Marner period and he's showing us that this year.

A lot of people seen Marner getting upset on and off the bench and I dont blame him, he was one of the guys at work who carries everyone while they slack & show a lack of team work.
But people like yourself im sure if i look at your posts, just wanted to say he's always whining and say rude remarks because im sure you're also one of those guys at work who slacks and tries to turn everyone on the guy carrying all of your dead weight.

 

[trellaine201]

The only concern I have for Knies are injuires and his noggin. Especially how he plays. I would trade anyone on the Leafs for the right price.

 

[Buckley]

Really not sure with the new obsession of trading Knies.

People have to talk about something now that the Matthews story is dead.

 

[Leaffan1991]

That would've been a bad trades for Knies... if we are trading him
To Montreal it needs to be their top prospects Hage, Zharovsky and Pickford.
Top C, top winger and Top RHD

 

[ULF_55]

Big pass for me. 23 year old who can score 30 and like 70+ for a 30 year who can score 30 and 70 points.

I get the centre component but I’m not willing to trade my younger pieces for older.

I’m willing to go young for young. I got no commitment from Matthews, and until I do, I’m keeping McKenna, Knies, Cowan and Danford as my new Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Rielly to build around just in case.

Just wish they'd finish whatever games are going on now so we can get to the draft, and then to free agency.

Last year trades started dropping leading up to the draft.

Leafs have picks and some players that need to be qualified, that might be of interest to other teams.

Interested if they can get anything done before the draft.

I don't see a Larkin or Thomas to Toronto though, but being wrong wouldn't hurt my feelings or self worth...

Leading up to draft.

2024-25 NHL Trade Tracker | NHL.com

Official deals since July 1, 2024

www.nhl.com

 

[Smif]

Cowan + Joey Woll + 2026 1st + 2027 2nd.

Wonder if that's even close? Or would it have to be Nylander or Knies?

2026 1st as in 1st.OV??

 

[HOTD]

Seriously- let’s stop trading Knies…

 

[Budz]

Seriously- let’s stop trading Knies…

If I can get a legit 2C or first pair D - he can go.

 

[OVO16]

The only concern I have for Knies are injuires and his noggin. Especially how he plays. I would trade anyone on the Leafs for the right price.

He played so hurt last year I thought for sure he was going to have some sort of off-season surgery. I hope he's rehabbing ok

 

[Community]

He's not who you think he is. He's also part of the problem in Detroit
Really lacks any type of intensity, can be inconsistent and doesn't battle hard enough

Hard pass for me.

Really not sure with the new obsession of trading Knies.

I think Larkin could look a lot better when he's not the #1C and captain of a team. As a #2C in Toronto where he'd be the #3 or #4 offensive option, I bet he'd look great.

However, I'm definitely not trading Knies for him (makes our aging roster even older) and trading our few tradeable assets for another forward isn't ideal. He's a luxury that we can't afford unless he comes super cheap as a NMC player trade who can limit trading partners (doubt Toronto is a top choice for him anyways).

 

[The Iceman]

Call me crazy, but we have 25M in cap space + LTIR of Domi. I'd take on Gallagher's contract if Montreal adds a 2nd would add the BS we lose from Domi.

Always hated that guy, but I think he could be a good 4th liner with a bite. Contract has only 1 year, and we get another pick that we're missing.

Ok. You asked for it….you are crazy

Gallagher is $6.5 cap hit. Nasty.

 

[Oskar The Groucho]

Thoughts on Eeli Tolvanen? A little Claude write-up on him.

WHY CHAYKA SPECIFICALLY SIGNS HIM — THE ANALYTICAL CASE​

Chayka's entire career as a GM has been built on one core philosophy: find players the market has mispriced, buy them at a discount relative to their actual production value, and build cap-efficient depth rather than paying premium prices for name recognition.


Tolvanen is a textbook Chayka player for the following reasons:


The Waiver Claim Narrative: He was waived. The market's initial verdict on Tolvanen was wrong — spectacularly wrong. Chayka's front office would note that Nashville misused him by deploying him inconsistently and then giving up. The Kraken's deployment data shows what happens when he gets proper ice time and role clarity. An analytics GM reads that gap between Nashville's assessment and Seattle's results as market mispricing. That mispricing created a player who signed for $3.475M — roughly half what his production was worth given comparable wingers in the same point range.


The Hits-Plus-Points Combination Is Analytically Rare: When you model the relationship between physical engagement (hits, blocked shots) and point production, Tolvanen sits in the upper-right corner of that chart for players in his point tier. Most 30-35 point wingers are either physical with limited offense, or skilled with limited physicality. He finished 13th in the entire league in hits last season while posting 23 goals and 35 points. That combination is genuinely rare and genuinely undervalued by traditional scouting. Chayka's models would flag this as a player whose overall contribution to winning (puck battles won, zone entries created, possession sustained) exceeds what his point total suggests. Office Pools


PK Value Is Financially Significant: A power-play and penalty-kill winger at $4.75M AAV costs far less than buying a PP specialist AND a PK specialist separately. Tolvanen's ability to play all situations means the Leafs can build the rest of the bottom six with cheaper, more specialized players. He absorbs deployment load efficiently.


The Matthews Effect Is Real and Quantifiable: Analytics departments can model linemate effects on shooting percentage and scoring-chance generation. Matthews generates more high-danger chances per 60 than virtually any center in the league. Wingers playing with Matthews see measurable lifts in their individual goal production even when controlling for their own shot rates. A player who scored 23 goals beside Matty Beniers has a realistic path to 25-28 goals beside Auston Matthews. That 5-goal lift on a $4.75M contract represents extraordinary value creation.


The Age Is Right for Chayka's Timeline: At 27, Tolvanen is entering the best years of his career. A 5-year deal takes him to 32 — still productive age for a physical winger with good hockey sense. A 6-year deal takes him to 33 — slightly more tail risk but still defensible given how Finnish players traditionally age (see: Saku Koivu, Jere Lehtinen, Mikael Granlund as aging templates — players who maintain their game through intelligence and positional play as the pure speed declines). Critically, analysts specifically note that he still has "plenty of tread left on his tires" at 27 — he's not a player coasting on fumes. He's entering his prime, not exiting it. Blackhawk Up


The Thin Market Creates an Overpay Environment That's Still Value: In a normal UFA market with 25 quality wingers available, Tolvanen signs for $3.5M-$4M and everyone's happy. In the 2026 Survivor Market, where teams desperate for wing depth are bidding against each other for a small pool of available players, Tolvanen's price goes to $4.5M-$5M. Even at $5M on a 5-year deal, he's the most analytically defensible winger in the market at his contract tier. Chayka doesn't avoid the overpay in a thin market — he accepts it because not signing anyone is worse than signing someone at market premium.

 

[The Iceman]

Someone else mentioned this blueline a couple pages ago,

McCabe - Raddysh
Zellweger - Tanev
Ekman Larsson - Kesselring

I think it’s a pretty good blueline that brings size, physicality and most importantly puck movement from the backend.

Buffalo will probably look to dump Kesselring fairly cheap and Raddysh would be a free agent signing meaning the only defenceman that would cost a decent amount is Zellweger.

I have a strong belief Chayka will spend his bullets on revamping the mobility of our D.
This would give us a puck moving D on each line. A definite step forward.

 

[LaPlante94]

Thoughts on Eeli Tolvanen? A little Claude write-up on him.

WHY CHAYKA SPECIFICALLY SIGNS HIM — THE ANALYTICAL CASE​

Chayka's entire career as a GM has been built on one core philosophy: find players the market has mispriced, buy them at a discount relative to their actual production value, and build cap-efficient depth rather than paying premium prices for name recognition.


Tolvanen is a textbook Chayka player for the following reasons:


The Waiver Claim Narrative: He was waived. The market's initial verdict on Tolvanen was wrong — spectacularly wrong. Chayka's front office would note that Nashville misused him by deploying him inconsistently and then giving up. The Kraken's deployment data shows what happens when he gets proper ice time and role clarity. An analytics GM reads that gap between Nashville's assessment and Seattle's results as market mispricing. That mispricing created a player who signed for $3.475M — roughly half what his production was worth given comparable wingers in the same point range.


The Hits-Plus-Points Combination Is Analytically Rare: When you model the relationship between physical engagement (hits, blocked shots) and point production, Tolvanen sits in the upper-right corner of that chart for players in his point tier. Most 30-35 point wingers are either physical with limited offense, or skilled with limited physicality. He finished 13th in the entire league in hits last season while posting 23 goals and 35 points. That combination is genuinely rare and genuinely undervalued by traditional scouting. Chayka's models would flag this as a player whose overall contribution to winning (puck battles won, zone entries created, possession sustained) exceeds what his point total suggests. Office Pools


PK Value Is Financially Significant: A power-play and penalty-kill winger at $4.75M AAV costs far less than buying a PP specialist AND a PK specialist separately. Tolvanen's ability to play all situations means the Leafs can build the rest of the bottom six with cheaper, more specialized players. He absorbs deployment load efficiently.


The Matthews Effect Is Real and Quantifiable: Analytics departments can model linemate effects on shooting percentage and scoring-chance generation. Matthews generates more high-danger chances per 60 than virtually any center in the league. Wingers playing with Matthews see measurable lifts in their individual goal production even when controlling for their own shot rates. A player who scored 23 goals beside Matty Beniers has a realistic path to 25-28 goals beside Auston Matthews. That 5-goal lift on a $4.75M contract represents extraordinary value creation.


The Age Is Right for Chayka's Timeline: At 27, Tolvanen is entering the best years of his career. A 5-year deal takes him to 32 — still productive age for a physical winger with good hockey sense. A 6-year deal takes him to 33 — slightly more tail risk but still defensible given how Finnish players traditionally age (see: Saku Koivu, Jere Lehtinen, Mikael Granlund as aging templates — players who maintain their game through intelligence and positional play as the pure speed declines). Critically, analysts specifically note that he still has "plenty of tread left on his tires" at 27 — he's not a player coasting on fumes. He's entering his prime, not exiting it. Blackhawk Up


The Thin Market Creates an Overpay Environment That's Still Value: In a normal UFA market with 25 quality wingers available, Tolvanen signs for $3.5M-$4M and everyone's happy. In the 2026 Survivor Market, where teams desperate for wing depth are bidding against each other for a small pool of available players, Tolvanen's price goes to $4.5M-$5M. Even at $5M on a 5-year deal, he's the most analytically defensible winger in the market at his contract tier. Chayka doesn't avoid the overpay in a thin market — he accepts it because not signing anyone is worse than signing someone at market premium.

Our next coach also won a gold medal with him at the World Juniors.

 

[meefer]

I don’t think there are any resources that say what his play time is on either side. From what I recall, he’s always been a left side guy, who occasionally plays out of position when needed, shift changes etc.

How about Desharnier?

That's a difficult one, as I have only just watched a few vids of the fella to help me answer your question. Positives: in one vid he was mic'd up and he seems to be a very 'likeable' player...good team mate, energy guy, physical and aware of his surroundings and the action on the ice (urging team mates to get off the ice quickly when they were dawdling at the bench gate, vocal while playing). Seems to be a decent skater. In another vid he willingly took on Xhekej in a good fight, kudos. Other than one season, 24/25, he is being used primarily in D zone starts, with this past season being his highest rate of D zone starts, which I can interpret as either he's one of the better D zone players, or his lack of O zone talent. Given that he has 26 points in 218 NHL games, I'll lean to the latter. But, of concern, is that in those D zone situations, over the past 4 seasons, according to Moneypuck, he's had 32 takeaways and 148 giveaways of which 126 were in the D zone. Of his 50 giveaways last year, 42 were in the D zone. That gives me pause. As does the fact that other than in 23/24 with Edmonton has he played most of the games (78, with 11 points). He was tracking well last year, but elbow surgery caused him to miss 20+ I read.

That said, of course my views of Desharnier are grossly incomplete. I may have watched 5 games of him while he's played the Leafs. All I can say is that in those games, I don't remember him having stood out in any way.

What is it about Desharnier that intrigues you?

 

[BertCorbeau]

Barzal and now Larkin … definitely some names out there to help get a needed top 6
centre for now and the future

 

[Kurtz]

Thoughts on Eeli Tolvanen? A little Claude write-up on him.

WHY CHAYKA SPECIFICALLY SIGNS HIM — THE ANALYTICAL CASE​

Chayka's entire career as a GM has been built on one core philosophy: find players the market has mispriced, buy them at a discount relative to their actual production value, and build cap-efficient depth rather than paying premium prices for name recognition.


Tolvanen is a textbook Chayka player for the following reasons:


The Waiver Claim Narrative: He was waived. The market's initial verdict on Tolvanen was wrong — spectacularly wrong. Chayka's front office would note that Nashville misused him by deploying him inconsistently and then giving up. The Kraken's deployment data shows what happens when he gets proper ice time and role clarity. An analytics GM reads that gap between Nashville's assessment and Seattle's results as market mispricing. That mispricing created a player who signed for $3.475M — roughly half what his production was worth given comparable wingers in the same point range.


The Hits-Plus-Points Combination Is Analytically Rare: When you model the relationship between physical engagement (hits, blocked shots) and point production, Tolvanen sits in the upper-right corner of that chart for players in his point tier. Most 30-35 point wingers are either physical with limited offense, or skilled with limited physicality. He finished 13th in the entire league in hits last season while posting 23 goals and 35 points. That combination is genuinely rare and genuinely undervalued by traditional scouting. Chayka's models would flag this as a player whose overall contribution to winning (puck battles won, zone entries created, possession sustained) exceeds what his point total suggests. Office Pools


PK Value Is Financially Significant: A power-play and penalty-kill winger at $4.75M AAV costs far less than buying a PP specialist AND a PK specialist separately. Tolvanen's ability to play all situations means the Leafs can build the rest of the bottom six with cheaper, more specialized players. He absorbs deployment load efficiently.


The Matthews Effect Is Real and Quantifiable: Analytics departments can model linemate effects on shooting percentage and scoring-chance generation. Matthews generates more high-danger chances per 60 than virtually any center in the league. Wingers playing with Matthews see measurable lifts in their individual goal production even when controlling for their own shot rates. A player who scored 23 goals beside Matty Beniers has a realistic path to 25-28 goals beside Auston Matthews. That 5-goal lift on a $4.75M contract represents extraordinary value creation.


The Age Is Right for Chayka's Timeline: At 27, Tolvanen is entering the best years of his career. A 5-year deal takes him to 32 — still productive age for a physical winger with good hockey sense. A 6-year deal takes him to 33 — slightly more tail risk but still defensible given how Finnish players traditionally age (see: Saku Koivu, Jere Lehtinen, Mikael Granlund as aging templates — players who maintain their game through intelligence and positional play as the pure speed declines). Critically, analysts specifically note that he still has "plenty of tread left on his tires" at 27 — he's not a player coasting on fumes. He's entering his prime, not exiting it. Blackhawk Up


The Thin Market Creates an Overpay Environment That's Still Value: In a normal UFA market with 25 quality wingers available, Tolvanen signs for $3.5M-$4M and everyone's happy. In the 2026 Survivor Market, where teams desperate for wing depth are bidding against each other for a small pool of available players, Tolvanen's price goes to $4.5M-$5M. Even at $5M on a 5-year deal, he's the most analytically defensible winger in the market at his contract tier. Chayka doesn't avoid the overpay in a thin market — he accepts it because not signing anyone is worse than signing someone at market premium.

He's my number 2 UFA target atm behind Raddysh. #34 and 88 asked for a couple of dogs, and he's a dog. Would be good to build a strong 3rd line.

 

[Puckstuff]

Barzal and now Larkin … definitely some names out there to help get a needed top 6
centre for now and the future

What do you mean future? Those guys are both turning 30. You are looking at a decline within a few years. I wouldn’t be giving up the young players they would covet to get either of them.