Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 - Post Deadline

[Phion Keneuf]

I’d push hard for Raffl for our bottom line, and Nichuskin for the middle 6. Kerfoot can go for some picks

 

[SprDaVE]

I was listening to the Leafs Report podcast (with Mirtle and Siegel). Nothing really huge or "insider information" but some good opinions. Cole notes and paraphrasing:

They also think they can't bring back Mrazek. It just didn't work out at all and cap space can be better utilized. Dump is preferable, buyout isn't bad though.

They were speechless to what the Leafs do for goaltenders if they don't retain Campbell and dump Mrazek. The options are either expensive or risky. Kuemper alone might cost more than what the Leafs spent on goaltending this season. Varlamov, Gibson, etc will be hard to acquire if available. Mirtle says Campbell wants to be back but the negotiations will be hard, he thinks Campbell is around 4 x 4M to re-sign at a minimum.

Big decision on Muzzin. Value is still there, brings a unique skillset to the Leafs blue line. He was good in the playoffs... but that money and his regression might be worth to move on now instead if/when his value tanks even more. You have to replace him if you move him. It will depend if they can keep Giordano cheap and also big question marks on Sandin and Liljegren. They can't block Sandin and Liljegren again for vets but if they struggle, you look at the market during the season.

JT isn't going anywhere but they need to give him better fits on his line, big hole on the left most of the season. He looked much better with Marner and Bunting while Matthews was out. Doubtful Nylander is traded this summer but not impossible, more likely he moves in 2023 because they won't be able to keep him when his contract is up. No way Mikheyev is back and questionable top 6 player because he relies on his speed alone to get chances, he struggled in the playoffs. Kerfoot is likely traded.

People keep saying every off-season that the Leafs can't possibly get better and they find a way to be better (in the regular season). No reason to think they can't do it again, make hard decisions, find more players like Bunting, Kampf etc. The one thing they have to really focus on is goaltending, that will be a big thing. They probably need to target a quality forward in free agency. They also need more ELC contributors, one or two to really break out and give them quality.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I was listening to the Leafs Report podcast (with Mirtle and Siegel). Nothing really huge or "insider information" but some good opinions. Cole notes and paraphrasing:

They also think they can't bring back Mrazek. It just didn't work out at all and cap space can be better utilized. Dump is preferable, buyout isn't bad though.

They were speechless to what the Leafs do for goaltenders if they don't retain Campbell and dump Mrazek. The options are either expensive or risky. Kuemper alone might cost more than what the Leafs spent on goaltending this season. Varlamov, Gibson, etc will be hard to acquire if available. Mirtle says Campbell wants to be back but the negotiations will be hard, he thinks Campbell is around 4 x 4M to re-sign at a minimum.

Big decision on Muzzin. Value is still there, brings a unique skillset to the Leafs blue line. He was good in the playoffs... but that money and his regression might be worth to move on now instead if/when his value tanks even more. You have to replace him if you move him. It will depend if they can keep Giordano cheap and also big question marks on Sandin and Liljegren. They can't block Sandin and Liljegren again for vets but if they struggle, you look at the market during the season.

JT isn't going anywhere but they need to give him better fits on his line, big hole on the left most of the season. He looked much better with Marner and Bunting while Matthews was out. Doubtful Nylander is traded this summer but not impossible, more likely he moves in 2023 because they won't be able to keep him when his contract is up. No way Mikheyev is back and questionable top 6 player because he relies on his speed alone to get chances, he struggled in the playoffs. Kerfoot is likely traded.

People keep saying every off-season that the Leafs can't possibly get better and they find a way to be better (in the regular season). No reason to think they can't do it again, make hard decisions, find more players like Bunting, Kampf etc. The one thing they have to really focus on is goaltending, that will be a big thing. They probably need to target a quality forward in free agency. They also need more ELC contributors, one or two to really break out and give them quality.

I actually found myself getting more frustrated as I read that.

The (un)athletic are a bunch of shrills though that sucks up to management.

 

[4thline]

Liking Nylander a lot as a player, and in no way blaming him to the teams fortunes, I think you have to look at what you can get in trade (futures and cheap/young roster players only) and try to get a slight downgrade to replace him at a lower price point in UFA.

Strome at 5.5-6 + 1-1.5m cap space + Nylanders trade value > Nylander

Similar but less scale on Kerfoot. Like him as a player, but his trade value, a cheaper player that fits better with JT, the cap space difference, and trade return make it a clear win.

 

[SprDaVE]

I actually found myself getting more frustrated as I read that.

The (un)athletic are a bunch of shrills though that sucks up to management.

What is frustrating? It was pretty tame and generally just keeping a level head. They criticized plenty throughout and made some good points.

Were they supposed to be angry and talking about blowing it up or something?

 

[WTFMAN99]

Liking Nylander a lot as a player, and in no way blaming him to the teams fortunes, I think you have to look at what you can get in trade (futures and cheap/young roster players only) and try to get a slight downgrade to replace him at a lower price point in UFA.

Strome at 5.5-6 + 1-1.5m cap space + Nylanders trade value > Nylander

Similar but less scale on Kerfoot. Like him as a player, but his trade value, a cheaper player that fits better with JT, the cap space difference, and trade return make it a clear win.

What is frustrating? It was pretty tame and generally just keeping a level head. They criticized plenty throughout.

Were they supposed to be angry and talking about blowing it up or something?

I mean, let's acknowledge JT-88 don't mesh, so doesn't make sense to return 88 unless you're committed to breaking up Matthews-Marner.

Running the "big 4" back yet again...you'd legitimately need to be one of the dumbest people to think that's a winning formula at this point.

10/10 times they've failed to eliminate an opponent....that's not bad luck, that's legitimate failure.

4/4 series loss under Dubas.

Yes, you shake up the core.
Yes, be angry as a fan

I'll use the word "blow up" - yes, I want to see multiple different faces depart and join the roster.

 

[Apex Predator]

This is what the Leafs have as of now without resigning or trading anyway. Roughly 5 million in cap space. Need two goalies, a couple bottom 6 players, Top 6 LW and 2 defenseman. This won’t be an easy summer and I’m intersted to see what they do.

They will trade some guys to get that cap space. Whether that is Mrazek, Muzzin, Kerfoot, Holl or core 4 we will have to wait and see.

 

[SprDaVE]

I mean, let's acknowledge JT-88 don't mesh, so doesn't make sense to return 88 unless you're committed to breaking up Matthews-Marner.

Running the "big 4" back yet again...you'd legitimately need to be one of the dumbest people to think that's a winning formula at this point.

10/10 times they've failed to eliminate an opponent....that's not bad luck, that's legitimate failure.

4/4 series loss under Dubas.

Yes, you shake up the core.
Yes, be angry as a fan

I'll use the word "blow up" - yes, I want to see multiple different faces depart and join the roster.

Don't blame them for saying what everyones is saying. They aren't the one media outlet saying this isn't a year you "blow" it up. The majority of insiders, analysts and opinionated people are saying the same thing right now.

I understand you desperately want Nylander traded to feel like things are changing but this was the best Leafs team assembled in a very long time. There's no reason to believe they can't bring back the same 4 top forwards and eventually find success in the post-season.

But hey it's a long off-season. Maybe you'll get your wish. And to be honest, I do hope you get your wish that Nylander is traded just so we can really stop talking about it being an issue.

 

[Skullz]

If JT moves to the wing, is it possible that Willy can play center? Decent on draws, and his transition game and passing would work really well from the middle, obviously the concern is the defence, but how the hell are we supposed to find a no. 2 center if we have Marner and Tavares on the wing at 11 million and Willy on the wing at 7 million? Seems impossible unless its Willy taking Tavares spot at center imho.

 

[Zero1]

Why not just move Marner to JT’s wing and find a top-6 winger that can play with Matthews instead?

I feel like that would be much easier than finding guys that can play with JT. Leafs can finally have the two 1st lines that they’ve tried to do since JT got here.

Nylander-Matthews-x
Bunting-Tavares-Marner
Engvall-Kampf-x
Robertson-x-Spezza

Rust/Giroux/Burakovsky could be interesting options imo.

 

[Cor]

If JT moves to the wing, is it possible that Willy can play center? Decent on draws, and his transition game and passing would work really well from the middle, obviously the concern is the defence, but how the hell are we supposed to find a no. 2 center if we have Marner and Tavares on the wing at 11 million and Willy on the wing at 7 million? Seems impossible unless its Willy taking Tavares spot at center imho.

Why would we shift Tavares to wing? his defensive reliability and faceoff skill is a constant in his game.

 

[Dreakmur]

Why not just move Marner to JT’s wing and find a top-6 winger that can play with Matthews instead?

I feel like that would be much easier than finding guys that can play with JT. Leafs can finally have the two 1st lines that they’ve tried to do since JT got here.

Nylander-Matthews-x
Bunting-Tavares-Marner
Engvall-Kampf-x
Robertson-x-Spezza

Rust/Giroux/Burakovsky could be interesting options imo.

Matthews and Marner won’t allow Keefe to make that move.

 

[Americanadian]

If JT moves to the wing, is it possible that Willy can play center? Decent on draws, and his transition game and passing would work really well from the middle, obviously the concern is the defence, but how the hell are we supposed to find a no. 2 center if we have Marner and Tavares on the wing at 11 million and Willy on the wing at 7 million? Seems impossible unless its Willy taking Tavares spot at center imho.

Friedman suggested Matthews/Marner both at C.

 

[Legion34]

Chris Johnston is right. Next year is 100% about convincing Matthews to sign long term. If he does I personally don’t see him playing out the whole thing……. But if he won’t sign then you trade him and start again.

Next year is a go for it year (provided none of the players ask out).

If you are confident Matthews signs you have plenty of time. As mad as everyone is now.

-how many teams make the playoffs all 6 years?
-is it better to have won a round 2 years ago then missed twice?
-how many teams get swept? Is that better than game 7?

The media hot takes are ridiculous. One person said tampa wanted the leafs to beat them. Thats why it went to 7.

Another said that Tampa was “ripe for the picking” with all of their players looking human/they weren’t ready to start etc,,,,,

Like Toronto had no part in it. If Tampa wanted to lose. Why didn’t they? If they were conserving energy. Why not beat them in 4 and have a week off?

Just dumb.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Don't blame them for saying what everyones is saying. They aren't the one media outlet saying this isn't a year you "blow" it up. The majority of insiders, analysts and opinionated people are saying the same thing right now.

I understand you desperately want Nylander traded to feel like things are changing but this was the best Leafs team assembled in a very long time. There's no reason to believe they can't bring back the same 4 top forwards and eventually find success in the post-season.

But hey it's a long off-season. Maybe you'll get your wish. And to be honest, I do hope you get your wish that Nylander is traded just so we can really stop talking about it being an issue.

If this was the best Leafs team assembled then we need to raise the bar because it achieved exactly the same thing that the lesser ones did the previous 5 years.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Friedman on 590 says

Leafs will make changes, more tenacity needed in top 6. Questions where JT plays next season, centre or wing.

Dubas will be back. No concern on contract status, though wonders if extension happens.

Feels this has to be for lack of another team, Dubas' summer of Kawhi, they will have to really consider a major move.

Thinks Giordano returns at a lower number.

Don't expect a long term deal with Sandin or Liljegren, shorter deals in that 1.5-2M range

Doesn't sound like Campbell will return, Leafs opened with 2.75M in initial offer which is far below Campbell's.

My 2 cents

If JT is already at wing, the contract sucks. We have an 11M winger already.

3.8M for Mrazek for 2.75M for Campbell doesn't make sense.

They cannot simply consider a major move, it actually needs to happen. He can't say "we'd be different but not better"

Mrazek has a decade resume of being a capable 910-915 starter who has won playoff rounds, jack just finished a sub 900 3.15gaa playoff series, he’s lost both series he’s been in, mrazek has won his first rounds.
Mrazek had an absolutely awful year, probably worse year I can remember for a FA signing here since Jeff finger or mike komisarek but coming into the season he was one of the more desirable Fa goalies and actually had a record of playoff success. All while being under 30 at the time

 

[WTFMAN99]

Mrazek has a decade resume of being a capable 910-915 starter who has won playoff rounds, jack just finished a sub 900 3.15gaa playoff series, he’s lost both series he’s been in, mrazek has won his first rounds.
Mrazek had an absolutely awful year, probably worse year I can remember for a FA signing here since Jeff finger or mike komisarek but coming into the season he was one of the more desirable Fa goalies and actually had a record of playoff success. All while being under 30 at the time

Nah, Mrazek trash just propped up by some good Canes and Wings teams.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Boston re-signed Zboril, so the top G6 UFA is staying put.

 

[Zero1]

Matthews and Marner won’t allow Keefe to make that move.

If Keefe is making lineup decisions to please the players then he has to go. The organization needs a backbone and I’m tired of these players walking all over them.

I don’t think these players understand how lucky they are to be playing for the Leafs. There’s so much extra shit the Leafs provide for their players that they won’t understand until they play for another team.

Dubas always throws himself under the bus for his players too, always deflects the blame on to himself even when the players shit the bed.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Limited cap space only if everyone is back, I don’t think anyone expects everyone back. There’s $20m in cap you can shuffle by moving/letting go of: mrazek Campbell Holl muzzin kerfoot Kase mikheyev
Holl and muzzin are replaced by sandin and Lilly on cheap bridge deals, gio extends for a Simmonds/spezza deal, boosh probably gets a minimal raise. They can have 16-17m to reshape the net and the middle of the forward group.


Cool story, isn’t there a sex scandal or something to talk about on the Chicago boards?

That's really all you have? lol.

All the crap they go through and they still won cups in 3/6 years meanwhile you're ready to gobble Dubas's golf balls for his 4th 1st round loss is as many years as he's been GM

 

[Nylanderthal]

That's really all you have? lol.

All the crap they go through and they still won cups in 3/6 years meanwhile you're ready to gobble Dubas's golf balls for his 4th 1st round loss is as many years as he's been GM

Is that what I’ve said? I’m literally prepared to throw 30-40% of the roster out the window, does that sound like ball gargling of the GM? I’m glad Chicago won those cups with those illegal back diving deals for Hossa and Keith, that was cool… a decade ago.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Is that what I’ve said? I’m literally prepared to throw 30-40% of the roster out the window, does that sound like ball gargling of the GM? I’m glad Chicago won those cups with those illegal back diving deals for Hossa and Keith, that was cool… a decade ago.

They were legal under the CBA.

I'd rather be able to talk about a cup a decade ago rather then fantasize about one 21 year years before I was alive.

 

[Zero1]

Limited cap space only if everyone is back, I don’t think anyone expects everyone back. There’s $20m in cap you can shuffle by moving/letting go of: mrazek Campbell Holl muzzin kerfoot Kase mikheyev
Holl and muzzin are replaced by sandin and Lilly on cheap bridge deals, gio extends for a Simmonds/spezza deal, boosh probably gets a minimal raise. They can have 16-17m to reshape the net and the middle of the forward group.


Cool story, isn’t there a sex scandal or something to talk about on the Chicago boards?

Rielly-Brodie
Gio-Liljegren
Sandin-Lyubushkin

That d-core is not bad and very cost effective but we are betting on a 38/39-year old Gio to not fall off a cliff. If the Leafs are trading Muzzin I think they need to acquire at least one more top-4 d-man.

 

[Nylanderthal]

They were legal under the CBA.

I'd rather be able to talk about a cup a decade ago rather then fantasize about one 21 year years before I was alive.

I’d rather focus on how a 115pt team gets over the hump of breaking through playoff struggles and how good the future success will be as opposed to bathe in any past glory, semi recent or ancient. This place is called hockey’s futures after all.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I'm actually really surprised at that Campbell tidbit. You won't find much better than Campbell in free agency for his price range. I wouldn't be overly shocked if the Leafs brought back Mrazek as a back-up or #1B, he had a very unlucky season, but ... they have to figure it out quickly. If Campbell wants over 4.5M long-term, I definitely let him test market. Anything between 3M and 4.25M is very fair depending on term.

There is realistically only 1 spot in the top 6 at this time regardless of Tavares' move to the wing or not. They really need to dig deep to find a Mikheyev replacement because that won't be easy, although Mikheyev was mostly just a breakaway fiend.

Tavares isn't going anywhere. The faster people understand this the better. Pavelski showed just how good players of their ilk can still be later in their careers.

It'll be interesting to see if Kuzmenko is interested in the Leafs at all. He would be an excellent fit for either of our 2nd or 3rd line, which would be a guaranteed spot for him. Maybe he doesn't replace the defensive game or the speed that Mikheyev provides (he is more of a cycle player who can shoot and move the puck well), but Kerfoot wasn't a PKer until we made him a PKer and he turned into a top notch PKer. I think Kuzmenko can play a style that makes him an effective PKer, assuming he has good enough skating ability on the rush, and that will get him more minutes (he can also lead the 2PP of course).



Dan Milstein is his client, and he knows how well we treat our Russians. Must also be attractive to see that his Russian clients are able to quickly cash in soon after playing on this team (Zaitsev, Mikheyev, Barabanov, etc.)