Trade and Free Agency - 2025-26

[MNRube]

Overall, I would rank them:
1. Dylan Larkin — slightly better overall player because elite skating is such a rare weapon and he can drive offense as a true No. 1 center.
2. Vincent Trocheck — slightly more complete two-way center and arguably the better playoff player.

The gap isn’t huge. In today’s NHL I’d put Larkin around the 12th-18th best center range, while Trocheck is more in the 18th-25th range, depending on how heavily you value defense and playoff performance.

Personally though the things that worry me are Larkin’s reliance on speed, and what he’d cost us. Larkin is already showing signs of slowing down, so saying he’d be better in 3 years than Trochek is now is kind of ridiculous when Tro has already proven his game is aging well. I’m all for grabbing him for a few years if it give us the ability to add another impact fwd or two.

Great post. I think Larkin is a bit overrated and am cooling on acquiring him. I think there is a good chance we regret any trade that sends out Yurov or Stramel. Probably a dumb take but .

 

[DigitalBoldy]

This account is an interesting follow. They said Brady requested a trade something like a month ago(?).

 

[DigitalBoldy]

To me, Trocheck is someone you offer Hartman+1st max for. Not someone you include young NHLers or NHL ready prospects for.

We might also consider that Larkin’s offensive numbers might be neutered from playing in Detroit. See: Tarasenko.

 

[ctmagic]

This account is an interesting follow. They said Brady requested a trade something like a month ago(?).

Makes me nervous

 

[BagHead]

I like this player comparison. Younger, yes. Better? Marginally. They are different players and Larkin probably cost twice the assets with almost twice the cap hit. I like the AI player comp here…

Career Production

Dylan Larkin

Career:
• 808 GP
• 276 G
• 367 A
• 643 P
• 0.79 PPG 

Notable seasons:
• 2018-19: 73 points
• 2021-22: 69 points in 71 games
• 2022-23: 79 points
• 2023-24: 69 points
• Consistently a 30-goal threat

Vincent Trocheck

Career (through 2025-26):
• Over 900 NHL games
• Over 700 career points
• Roughly 0.76 PPG

Best offensive seasons:
• 75 points with Florida (2017-18)
• 77 points with the Rangers (2023-24)
• Multiple 60+ point seasons

Production-wise they’re surprisingly close.

If you compare their primes:

Larkin
• More goals
• More rush offense
• Creates more offense through speed

Trocheck
• More balanced offense
• More net-front scoring
• More puck-retrieval and cycle offense

⸻

Skating

This is where Larkin separates himself.

Larkin

One of the fastest centers in hockey for most of his career.

Strengths:
• Explosive acceleration
• Elite straight-line speed
• Dangerous off the rush
• Excellent transition player

Detroit’s offense has often flowed through his ability to transport the puck from defense to offense.

Trocheck

Good skater.

But not game-breaking.

His game relies much more on:
• anticipation
• positioning
• work rate
• puck battles

Advantage: Larkin

Not particularly close.

⸻

Offensive Style

Dylan Larkin

Think:
• rush offense
• transition attacks
• speed through neutral ice
• attacking defenders wide

When he’s at his best, he’s generating chances before the defense gets set.

Comparable stylistically to:
• a lighter version of Mathew Barzal
• elements of Sebastian Aho

Vincent Trocheck

Think:
• hard forecheck
• net-front battles
• puck retrievals
• inside scoring areas

He’s built more like a playoff center.

He scores a lot of “dirty” goals.

Comparable stylistically to:
• Brayden Schenn
• a more offensive version of Jordan Staal

⸻

Defensive Impact

This is where Trocheck gains ground.

Trocheck

Among the NHL’s better defensive centers for years.

Strengths:
• faceoffs
• penalty killing
• defensive-zone coverage
• board battles
• puck retrievals

Rangers coaches routinely use him in difficult defensive situations.

Larkin

Very good defensively himself.

Often matched against opponents’ top lines.

Known for:
• backchecking
• neutral-zone disruption
• transition defense

But he tends to create value through speed rather than physical shutdown play.

Slight edge: Trocheck

⸻

Faceoffs

Trocheck has been one of the NHL’s most reliable faceoff men.

Typical range:
• 55-60%

Larkin generally sits:
• 50-53%

In playoff hockey, this matters.

Clear edge: Trocheck

⸻

Physicality

Trocheck
• More hits
• More board battles
• More agitation
• More willingness to play nasty

Larkin
• Physical enough
• Doesn’t avoid contact
• But relies more on speed and skill

Edge: Trocheck

⸻

Analytics

Public models generally agree on something:

Larkin

Strengths:
• offensive WAR
• transition value
• rush offense
• zone entries

Weakness:
• doesn’t drive defensive value at the same level as elite Selke candidates

Trocheck

Strengths:
• defensive WAR
• penalty kill value
• faceoffs
• matchup utility

Weakness:
• slightly lower offensive ceiling

Across models like Evolving-Hockey and JFresh cards over the years, both have typically graded as top-line NHL centers, but Trocheck’s defensive metrics are often stronger while Larkin’s offensive metrics are stronger.

⸻

Playoff Comparison

This is where the gap gets big.

Trocheck

Multiple deep playoff runs.

With:
• Florida
• Carolina
• Rangers

Has been a major contributor in postseason hockey.

His style translates extremely well:
• faceoffs
• forechecking
• defensive detail
• net-front scoring

Larkin

Only five NHL playoff games because Detroit spent most of his career rebuilding. 

This isn’t really his fault, but it means we don’t have much evidence of his playoff ceiling.

⸻

Leadership

Both are highly respected.

Larkin
• Captain of the Red Wings
• Face of the franchise
• Widely praised by teammates and USA Hockey
• Regarded as a strong leader and complete player. 

Trocheck
• Vocal leader
• Known for competitiveness
• Sets the tone physically

I’d call this a draw.

⸻

If You Were Building a Team

For an 82-game regular season

I’d take Dylan Larkin.

Reasons:
• younger
• faster
• higher offensive ceiling
• more difficult player to defend

For a playoff series tomorrow

I’d take Vincent Trocheck.

Reasons:
• faceoffs
• defensive details
• physical game
• proven playoff track record

⸻

Final Verdict

If we score every category:

Offense: Larkin
Skating: Larkin
Transition play: Larkin
Defense: Trocheck
Faceoffs: Trocheck
Physicality: Trocheck
Playoff value: Trocheck
Leadership: Tie

Overall, I would rank them:
1. Dylan Larkin — slightly better overall player because elite skating is such a rare weapon and he can drive offense as a true No. 1 center.
2. Vincent Trocheck — slightly more complete two-way center and arguably the better playoff player.

The gap isn’t huge. In today’s NHL I’d put Larkin around the 12th-18th best center range, while Trocheck is more in the 18th-25th range, depending on how heavily you value defense and playoff performance.

Personally though the things that worry me are Larkin’s reliance on speed, and what he’d cost us. Larkin is already showing signs of slowing down, so saying he’d be better in 3 years than Trochek is now is kind of ridiculous when Tro has already proven his game is aging well. I’m all for grabbing him for a few years if it give us the ability to add another impact fwd or two.

Today, I think they're pretty close. I think the value Larkin has over Trochek is the length of time he'd be useful for, and that's a big edge. That's not to say trading for Larkin is for sure the better move. I think that depends on the price paid for each player.

Good post of their talent levels and results, I appreciate the breakdown.

 

[AKL]

I simultaneously believe Larkin probably isn't as bad as his most recent declining metrics indicate, while also worrying that we're going to give up too much to get him.

 

[AKL]

I simultaneously believe Larkin probably isn't as bad as his most recent declining metrics indicate, while also worrying that we're going to give up too much to get him.

And I still wonder if maybe we'd be better off acquiring more depth over a guy that's closer to a 1C. Our depth is already the problem. Consolidating multiple assets into one hurts that aspect even more.

 

[ctmagic]

Today, I think they're pretty close. I think the value Larkin has over Trochek is the length of time he'd be useful for, and that's a big edge. That's not to say trading for Larkin is for sure the better move. I think that depends on the price paid for each player.

Good post of their talent levels and results, I appreciate the breakdown.

It’s popular to flame AI generated content but I love using it for stuff like this. Useful tool.

I think part of my draw to Trochek is that it’s a shorter contract we can clear in a few years. Fits our win now window and I just love the value/cap hit ratio. Gives us a better chance at adding another 60pt fwd. All in all I will be excited if we do land Larkin as long as we don’t gut our team to do so.

 

[ctmagic]

Carolina just showed us all you can win with a lot of good depth. I don’t want to become a top heavy team and it feels like that’s the direction we are headed.

 

[thestonedkoala]

My fear is they do something stupid like Yurov, Stramel and Wally plus two firsts for Larkin and Gibson

 

[BagHead]

It’s popular to flame AI generated content but I love using it for stuff like this. Useful tool.

I think part of my draw to Trochek is that it’s a shorter contract we can clear in a few years. Fits our win now window and I just love the value/cap hit ratio. Gives us a better chance at adding another 60pt fwd. All in all I will be excited if we do land Larkin as long as we don’t gut our team to do so.

AI generated content is shit. Using AI to assist in generating content through the usage of pointed, specific questions is dope. AI is a tool and sometimes people misuse it, and when they do they create slop. There are a lot of reasons to still not like they way AI is being pursued, like the way data centers are messing up entire communities, but AI as a tool, when used correctly, is very powerful.

Yeah, I can see a scenario where the Wild get Larkin and get worse in doing so. That's what I'd like them to avoid. I don't think Trochek could cost that much, but I also know that the window with him is shorter. All the world is tradeoffs.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If you had to do one:

Yurov/Stramel + 2 1sts + Ritchie for Larkin

or

Middleton + 1st + Ritchie for Pettersson (no retention and Hughes is cool with it)

 

[AKL]

If you had to do one:

Yurov/Stramel + 2 1sts + Ritchie for Larkin

or

Middleton + 1st + Ritchie for Pettersson (no retention)

I can't answer this without knowing things I can't know (but Guerin could) about the Canucks locker room and Pettersson

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I can't answer this without knowing things I can't know (but Guerin could) about the Canucks locker room and Pettersson

Let's assume Hughes is okie dokie with it.

 

[AKL]

Let's assume Hughes is okie dokie with it.

I'd still have questions about his character and work ethic, but assuming they're acceptable too, I would easily take the Pettersson trade

 

[thestonedkoala]

If you had to do one:

Yurov/Stramel + 2 1sts + Ritchie for Larkin

or

Middleton + 1st + Ritchie for Pettersson (no retention and Hughes is cool with it)

Neither?

Second over the first though. Not a big fan of Ritchie being anything.

 

[AKL]

I wish we knew more about the potential availability and cost of guys like Tippett, Lafreniere, DeBrusk, Trocheck, McCann, McTavish, etc. Feels like if we could get 2-3 of them, I'd probably prefer that than trading a huge package for Larkin.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Honestly, keeping the assets and just signing Tuch would probably be sufficient for me for this summer. Also Hughes, obviously.

Can always revisit center trades a couple months in if Yurov can't swim between Kaprizov and Tuch or Kaprizov and Boldy or Tuch and Boldy.

 

[keppel146]

This account is an interesting follow. They said Brady requested a trade something like a month ago(?).

We can hope they are right

 

[keppel146]

If you had to do one:

Yurov/Stramel + 2 1sts + Ritchie for Larkin

or

Middleton + 1st + Ritchie for Pettersson (no retention and Hughes is cool with it)

Still Larkin. I won’t miss one of Yurov or Stramel. 1sts are irrelevant now that we are in win now mode.

 

[HellOnIce]

Wonder if Werenski to MIN and Quinn to NJ will happen...

 

[MNRube]

If you had to do one:

Yurov/Stramel + 2 1sts + Ritchie for Larkin

or

Middleton + 1st + Ritchie for Pettersson (no retention and Hughes is cool with it)

The latter by far.

EP, JEE, Hartman, Yurov, Stramel, McCarron, Sturm is a nice C depth chart. EP has the potential to be the better player than Larkin and even disinterested he is still useful.

 

[Wild925]

I get the impression Hughes sided more with JT in that feud. They’re friends it seems. Tkachuks are huge fans of Miller, and 43 is sure close with them, I’m sure his mind thinks alike.

I don’t see him wanting EP at all.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Pretty please!

 

[f7bennyboner]

Great post. I think Larkin is a bit overrated and am cooling on acquiring him. I think there is a good chance we regret any trade that sends out Yurov or Stramel. Probably a dumb take but .

Nope , it’s the right take