Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest—LOL

[Ted Hoffman]

Arizona looks pretty good to me, better than the Wild. I’m not sure what you don’t believe about them.

It's a gut feeling. Nothing more. Could also just be that they have been terrible for so long, I need them to prove otherwise before I start believing.

Might also be that I can already tell you all kinds of praise will be heaped on Chayka for his brilliant analytics work if they make it. If they don't make it, it will just be chalked up to injuries and such. It's a double-edged sword, and no matter what happened nobody's going to look at him and say that he just got pretty damn lucky.

 

[Brian39]

I'm not sold on Arizona yet. They have been outshot 450-416 during this 13-3-1 and their even strength team Corsi during that stretch is 45.9% (or 25th in the league). But Darcy Kuemper has posted a .937 during that stretch (and has started every game). That masks a ton of issues and I'm not convinced that he can keep it up another 2+ months. I think thathey could win a round if Kuemper posts a .940, but I don't that's about it. Their underlying numbers aren't nearly as good as ours were during our best stretch of the season, so I think goalie regression is going to hit them harder than us.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

I'd like home ice. Binny has been very, very good over the last 10 weeks or so. But he has also never started an NHL playoff game and hasn't been 'the guy' in a playoff series in 4 years. He's never won a pro playoff round.

Assuming there is no drastic shift, he should be in net for game 1. If there are any nerves, I'd rather him have the home crowd supporting him than have him listen to "You SUCK! It's all your fault, it's all your fault, it's all your fault!" in a deafening environment. If things go completely sideways and we have to consider a goalie change for game 3, I'd much, much, much, much, much rather be pivoting to Allen on the road to save our season than have him starting a home game with an already nervous crowd.

I'm not saying that this a a guarantee or even likely to happen. But it wouldn't be the first time a feel good goalie story came crashing down in games 1 and 2 of the playoffs. The Hamburglar's magical run ended with Craig Anderson starting game 3 after the Habs went up 2-0 in the series. Keith Kinkaid stole Schneider's job last year in mid-January and posted a .918 from 1/16/18 onward. He had a .929 and 16-3-1 record in his last 20 games of the year. He was replaced by Schneider when things got out of hand in game 2 and watched Schneider take over for game 3 when the team was in an 0-2 series hole. Grubauer stole the job from Braden freaking Holtby in mid-February and posted a .931 SV% from January 1st to the end of the season (over 18 starts, 22 games played). Holtby posted an .894 over the same stretch. Grubauer struggled in games 1 and 2 so Washington found themselves in a 2-0 hole going into game 3. Holtby started game 3. And it's not just young/untested guys ceding the net to former #1s. The Blackhawks don't win a Cup in 2015 if not for Darling. He bailed out Crawford in game 1 (entering the game down 3-0 and then stopping 42 of 42 in a 4-3 double OT win) and then started games 3-6 after Crawford struggled again in game 2. Crawford replaced Darling in game 6 (and won his net back for good), but that series is over if Chicago hadn't thrown Darling in to save the day.

The reality of a 7 game series is that there is very little margin for error. If we have to turn to Jake Allen in game 3 or 4, I'd much rather be doing it on the road than at home. I could see Allen catching fire on the road when we are down and playing with a bit of house money. I don't think there is any chance that he catches fire at home in front of a nervous crowd who starts the game ready to boo the home team early if things start going sideways. Add that to the perk of letting Binny get his first playoff game under his belt in a friendly environment and I think starting at home is better than starting on the road. Again, this is not a prediction. I believe we are capable of beating in Western team without home ice advantage. But I think it is better to have the 1st series start in St. Louis and I want the team pushing for it.

Binnys road numbers have been better than his home numbers though, and considering the drastic home road splits allen has, it seems the blues are much better on the road.

 

[Brian39]

Binnys road numbers have been better than his home numbers though, and considering the drastic home road splits allen has, it seems the blues are much better on the road.

They haven't really been any better throughout his starts. He has a SV% of .933 through 9 homes starts and a SV% of .937 over 13 road starts. His home SV% is dragged down from allowing 2 goals in each of the 2 games in which he entered the game in relief of Allen. Both those were at home and drag the total from .933 to .924 since the sample sizes are so small.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I'm not sold on Arizona yet. They have been outshot 450-416 during this 13-3-1 and their even strength team Corsi during that stretch is 45.9% (or 25th in the league). But Darcy Kuemper has posted a .937 during that stretch (and has started every game). That masks a ton of issues and I'm not convinced that he can keep it up another 2+ months. I think thathey could win a round if Kuemper posts a .940, but I don't that's about it. Their underlying numbers aren't nearly as good as ours were during our best stretch of the season, so I think goalie regression is going to hit them harder than us.

That. Kuemper has been a roughly league average goalie throughout his career, who had a hot streak in Los Angeles that attracted Chayka's attention, and who promptly went back to league average until this latest run.

It's like last year, when Raanta went 16-6-4, 1.84, .942 from January 1 to the end of the season last year. He was 12-3-1, 1.59, .953 from February 10 to the end. That's what carried them more than anything else. There's just no freaking way he was going to keep that up over a season. [Hell, Binnington is 17-4-1, 1.77, .931 right now and I don't think there's any way he does that over a full season.] It's why I laughed every time I saw someone cite the Coyotes' 2nd half run as a reason they could make the playoffs this season; it really relied on Raanta putting up historic-type numbers, which he was never going to do.

This season? The Coyotes are riding random hot streaks from goalies [remember Adin Hill earlier this season? He was 4-0-0, .977, 0.56 before he rejoined reality] and the league's 2nd best PK with 15 SHG to playoff contention in a Western Conference where seemingly no one outside of the top-6 has any interest in getting into the playoffs. They're mediocre on the PP, they're terrible at even strength, and they truly rely on scoring by committee [11 guys with 10+ goals, no one with more than 17]. They have a really fine line to walk to get in, and if they slip up they need everyone else to slip up as well to save them.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 9 [6 home, 3 away]
Current Points: 84
True Magic Number to Clinch: 10 [corrected - Colorado can potentially hit 94 points, but we would almost certainly hold the 1st tie-break]
Likely Points Needed to Clinch Playoff Spot: 3

Remaining Schedule
3/21 - vs. Detroit [26-37-10, 15th in Eastern Conference, 3-6-1 in last 10]
3/23 - vs. Tampa Bay [56-13-4, 1st in Northeast Division, 8-2-0 in last 10]
3/25 - vs. Vegas [41-27-5, 3rd in Pacific Division, 9-1-0 in last 10]
3/29 - at NY Rangers [28-32-13, 13th in Eastern Conference, 1-6-3 in last 10]
3/30 - at New Jersey [27-38-9, 14th in Eastern Conference, 2-7-1 in last 10]
4/1 - vs. Colorado [32-29-12, 10th in Western Conference, 5-5-0 in last 10]
4/3 - at Chicago [32-30-10, 11th in Western Conference, 6-3-1 in last 10]
4/4 - vs. Philadelphia [35-30-8, 10th in Eastern Conference, 5-4-1 in last 10]
4/6 - vs. Vancouver [31-32-10, 13th in Western Conference, 4-4-2 in last 10]

Mud's Current Gutstimate: we finish at 96 points, good for 3rd in the Central and a first round series vs. Nashville. Winnipeg wins the division with 102 points, the Predators are 2nd with 99. Dallas finishes in the 1WC spot with 93.

Notes
-- The win vs. Edmonton, coupled with Minnesota's loss to Colorado, pushes our actual magic number to clinch to 10. [We only gain a point from Minnesota's loss, as Colorado now sits 9th when ranking everyone by point%.]
-- We still remain just 2 points up on Dallas for 3rd in the Central, and would currently trail on the 1st tiebreak [ROWs] and the 2nd tiebreak [H2H]. So, we need to beat Dallas outright on points unless we can get absolutely ahead on ROWs.
-- The only teams remaining on the schedule with real playoff chances are Tampa Bay and Vegas.
-- While Detroit and New Jersey are the only remaining teams mathematically eliminated, only Chicago has a semi-realistic chance of clawing back into the 8th spot in the playoffs and even then they probably need a little help.
-- Tampa Bay has clinched the President's Trophy, so we'll see how they handle the game vs. us on 3/23. We'll get an idea based on Wednesday night's game in Washington.

 

[HighNote]

Preds have a tough 5 games ahead of them, hopefully they lose a few so we can gain a couple points on them before we make up our game in hand. Home ice round one would be great.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

-Games Remaining: 8 [5 home, 3 away]
Current Points: 86
True Magic Number to Clinch: 8 [Colorado and Arizona can potentially hit 94 points, but we would almost certainly hold the 1st tie-break over both]
Likely Points Needed to Clinch Playoff Spot: 1

Remaining Schedule
3/23 - vs. Tampa Bay [58-13-4, clinched President's Trophy, 9-1-0 in last 10]
3/25 - vs. Vegas [42-27-5, 3rd in Pacific Division, 9-1-0 in last 10]
3/29 - at NY Rangers [28-32-13, 13th in Eastern Conference, 1-6-3 in last 10]
3/30 - at New Jersey [28-39-9, 14th in Eastern Conference, 3-6-1 in last 10]
4/1 - vs. Colorado [33-29-12, 10th in Western Conference, 5-5-0 in last 10]
4/3 - at Chicago [32-31-10, 11th in Western Conference, 6-3-1 in last 10]
4/4 - vs. Philadelphia [36-31-8, 11th in Eastern Conference, 5-5-0 in last 10]
4/6 - vs. Vancouver [32-32-10, 13th in Western Conference, 5-4-1 in last 10]

Mud's Current Gutstimate: we finish at 96 points, good for 3rd in the Central and a first round series vs. Nashville. Winnipeg wins the division with 102 points, the Predators are 2nd with 99. Dallas finishes in the 1WC spot with 92.

Notes
-- We sit 4 points up on Dallas for 3rd in the Central, but in a tie on points we would likely trail on the 1st tiebreak [ROWs] and would definitely lose the 2nd tiebreak [H2H].
-- We sit 4 back of Nashville with a game in hand, so the Predators are potentially catchable.
-- We sit 6 back of Winnipeg; the Jets are catchable only if we close strong and they play crappy.
-- The only teams remaining on the schedule with real playoff chances are Tampa Bay and Vegas.
-- While New Jersey is the only remaining teams mathematically eliminated, only Chicago has a semi-realistic chance of clawing back into the 8th spot in the playoffs and even then they probably need a little help.

 

[HighNote]

I would not be surprised if we passed Nashville.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

AS OF MARCH 23, THE BLUES HAVE LIKELY CLINCHED A PLAYOFF SPOT

Games Remaining: 7 [4 home, 3 away]
Current Points: 88
True Magic Number to Clinch: 5 [Arizona can potentially hit 93 points, but we would almost certainly hold a tiebreak]

Remaining Schedule
3/25 - vs. Vegas [42-27-6, 3rd in Pacific Division, 8-1-1 in last 10]
3/29 - at NY Rangers [29-32-13, 13th in Eastern Conference, 2-5-3 in last 10]
3/30 - at New Jersey [28-39-9, 14th in Eastern Conference, 3-6-1 in last 10]
4/1 - vs. Colorado [34-29-12, 2WC in Western Conference, 6-4-0 in last 10]
4/3 - at Chicago [32-32-10, 11th in Western Conference, 5-4-1 in last 10]
4/4 - vs. Philadelphia [36-31-8, 10th in Eastern Conference, 5-5-0 in last 10]
4/6 - vs. Vancouver [32-33-10, 13th in Western Conference, 5-4-1 in last 10]

Notes
-- With Arizona's OTL to New Jersey, the Coyotes are in 9th in the West at 79 points with 7 to play. We would at a minimum be tied on ROWs, tied on head-to-head [throw out the 1st game] and have a net goal differential over Arizona of +29. Thus, we really sit 10 points ahead of the Coyotes.
-- We sit 6 points up on Dallas for 3rd in the Central. On tiebreaks, we current lead on ROWs but in a tie point scenario we might be behind; we would definitely lose the 2nd tiebreak [H2H]. The magic number to clinch at least 3rd in the Central is currently 9.
-- We sit 2 back of Nashville with a game in hand, so the Predators are potentially catchable.
-- We sit 6 back of Winnipeg; the Jets are catchable only if we close strong and they play crappy. The Jets magic number to clinch the division is 8, whether referencing us or Nashville.


Current Playoff Pairings
(1P) Calgary vs. (2WC) Colorado
(2P) San Jose vs. (3P) Vegas
(1C) Winnipeg vs. (1WC) Dallas
(2C) Nashville vs. (3C) St. Louis

-- Colorado cannot win the Central
-- The only team eliminated from the playoffs is Los Angeles. Anaheim's elimination number is 2, Vancouver and Edmonton's is 8.

 

[HighNote]

I think we're gonna pass Nashville.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

At the start of the season, I had the Central standings as such:

1. Winnipeg
2. St. Louis
3. Nashville
4. Colorado
5. Dallas
6. Minnesota
7. Chicago

It seems crazy the way this season has gone that it might still turn out exactly like that if Colorado gets it together.

 

[Zamadoo]

I like a 1st round matchup with Nashville, especially after we take 2nd. It would be better as far as travel and potentially less fatiguing.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I won't get an update posted until Thursday, but our magic number to clinch is down to 3.

 

[Ranksu]

What are % that Dallas will pass us at standings?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

What are % that Dallas will pass us at standings?

Less than the percent chance the Blues will pass Winnipeg, or equal, depending of the Blues can maintain the tie-breaker against Dallas.

Their game tonight (head to head) will change that formula for one team.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

What are % that Dallas will pass us at standings?

Roughly 12%. Little less than that. It's like 11.8%.

 

[HighNote]

What are % that Dallas will pass us at standings?

If Dallas goes 7-0-0 to end the year, a few sample records for us to still be ahead of them would be 5-2-0, 4-2-1, or 3-1-3. That's the best case scenario for Dallas, so it's not likely at all that they catch us. Based on their trajectory the last 10 games, at best they'll go maybe 5-2-0, which means we could go something like 2-4-1 and still be ahead of them.

My estimation would be that there's less than 10% chance. Our schedule is easy after tonight.

 

[LGB]

According to predictions I've seen it's <3%

 

[Ranksu]

If we are tied in standings with Dallas in same point are they ahead of us?

 

[Majorityof1]

Magic number to make the playoffs is 1. If we get 1 point or Arizona losses 1 point, we clinch the playoffs. We should do better than just clinching, but its still an incredible accomplishment considering where we were at one point in the season.

 

[Majorityof1]

If we are tied in standings with Dallas in same point are they ahead of us?

First tie breaker is ROW (Regulation or OT wins - ie, not shootout). We currently have 40, they have 39. So we have the tie breaker. But if they come back to tie us in points, they most likely will pass us in ROW. But I obviously can't say that for sure.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

First tie breaker is ROW (Regulation or OT wins - ie, not shootout). We currently have 40, they have 39. So we have the tie breaker. But if they come back to tie us in points, they most likely will pass us in ROW. But I obviously can't say that for sure.

It's very likely they would pass us in ROWs if they come back to tie on points, but even if they just tie they hold the 2nd tiebreak (head-to-head). Our current magic number to clinch a top-3 spot (assuming we don't lead on ROWs) is 7.

If we pull even with Nashville on points, we lead them in ROWs.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

The Blues are, at worst, the 7th best team in the West.

I'd rank them:
1: San Jose - They'd be a massive favorite if not for Martin Jones in net
2: Calgary - Gets the slight nod over WPG because they dominated them in their 2 meetings
3: Winnipeg - No glaring weaknesses. They could easily win the West. Great team.
4: Nashville - I think NSH is the clear number 4 but a deadline trade could change that.
5: St. Louis - Strong roster is finally matching the preseason expectations as a Cup contender.
6: Las Vegas - It's time to stop counting these guys out.
7: Dallas - Forward depth is terrible but defense and Bishop are outstanding
8: Minnesota - Painfully average again. Especially after Koivu injury. Just enough talent to get in.
9: Chicago - They can score but can't keep the puck out of their net
10: Vancouver - Lacking in depth, Markstrom just ok, a little too young this year
11: Colorado - Really lacking in depth and their goalies have been terrible. One line team.
12: Arizona - About as average as you can get
13: Los Angeles - Got old in a hurry and, wisely, traded Muzzin
14: Edmonton - Even Hitchcock can't make this work. Zero defense. Poor McDavid.
15: Anaheim - LOL. At least they fired Carlyle.

I've watched a lot of Colorado, Vancouver, Minnesota, and Arizona this year as we have climbed back in the race. These teams are so incredibly meh. I'm tempted to put Chicago 8th just because of Kane, Toews, and Keith. Those horses are still going strong. Their D is just too bad.

Vegas is the one team I haven't watched much of outside of our matchups. There's a winning culture already in place there. I just like the Blues roster more.

I'm still feeling pretty good about these rankings from Feb 13.

3 through 7 are in correct order according to points. You could easily argue the Blues could be ahead of Nashville and maybe San Jose and Winnipeg. This team is just unreal right now. 17 straight with Schenn and Tarasenko? My word!

As I figured back in mid Feb, COL, VAN, MIN, ARI are just so meh. DAL really is too. The Stars are the clear #7 in the West.

I thought CHI and LA's winning pedigree might help propel them a bit further up the standings but CHI's D has been just too terrible to overcome and LA stopped caring.

 

[BlueDream]

San Jose has lost 6 in a row, and they're still without Karlsson. They look like they'll stumble into the playoffs, which isn't good since they're about to face Vegas.

I think you can make a case right now for the Blues being a top 3 team in the West heading into the postseason.