I do think there is a valid case to be made that Montreal has a better roster than Toronto. Especially when it comes to defense and goaltending. I don't think it's even close. Yes we have 5 really great forwards, Tavares, Hyman, Nylander, Marner and Matthews. But outside of those 4, no one else really produces consistently. Montreal to me is the best Canadian team at the moment, Leafs #2, Calgary #3. I can see the case for Winnipeg, but it is really about personal preference. I think we also overvalue our Big 4 four forwards. Where as other analysts and teams see their flaws more.
I don't see the valid case. To me, the criteria is this; special teams, 5 on 5, defence and talent.
Lets look at talent first. There is no one in that top 6 that is better than of the top 3 for the leafs; you can make for Suzuki being better than Nylander. No player is without flaws, but to me, their talent out weigh their flaws. You're a better team if you have talented players like them. The depth down the middle, which is so important, is a massive advantage for the leafs. It's not even close.
Special teams: I value the leafs PP and the habs PK more than the respective parts, but I think theres a bigger gap in the PP advantage for the leafs where I feel the habs and leafs PK are much closer.
5on5; I give the leafs the advantage on this on, while the habs defence is slightly better (which I'll get to) the leafs are high scoring team and will probably finish top 5, at worst top 10 (unless injuries happen), where I don't see the habs scoring much and will relying heavily on their goaltender again. Toffoli and Andersen aren't enough to offset, especially losing Domi the other way.
Defence: Huge advantage in goaltending, even at the backup position, which will be their ace, and you can probably give them the benefit of an experienced coaching staff, but when it comes to personnel, I don't see a gap. Is a top 3 of Weber, Petry, Edmunson that much better than Rielly, Muzzin, Brodie? You can make a case for either. And I don't think there's much of a gap between the rest.
To me, Flames and Leafs are ahead of the Canadian pack. They both have depth down the middle, both have reliable(enough) goaltending, they've both improved or maintained their d-core. A lot of flames players had low or career low years compared to 2 seasons, which I don't see happening again. The jets have no depth down the middle, and for all the press the leafs d-core gets, the jets are far worse off.
People are too mesmerized by the habs bubble success. They had no business being in the playoffs and made an upset after months of no hockey. They are an overachieving below mediocre team that just got a few pieces this off season to push into a bubble team. They are going to rely heavily on Price/Allen because they don't have the group, imo, to score enough unless some players have career years.