Proposal: Toronto - Carolina this summer

[Killer Orcas]

Trading Marner would lower JT's numbers. As much as JT is a great centre he's a scorer as much as a play maker. Having Mathews, JT and Svechnikov another scorer whose setting all these guys up? Doesn't work in my opinion.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I agree, but you have to look at guys drafted very high, not any random 2nd/3rd/4th round pick that did it. While it's still not the norm, it's also not unheard of for guys to be underwhelming as an 18 year old and then putting up excellent seasons a few years later. Not all were 95+ points, but scoring wasn't constant year over year either. Some examples (not all were 95+ point players, just showing examples of great strides after a rookie season):

Eric Staal put up 11G, 31 points in his rookie season as an 18 year old and then put up 100 points 2 seasons later.
Stamkos put up 23G, 46 point in his rookie season as an 18 year old and then put up 95 points the very next season.
Scheifele put up 13G, 34 points in his rookie season (at an older age) and 3 years later put up 32G, 82P
Joe Thorton put up 3G,7P in his first season (55G), and 16G, 41P then 71 (in 72 games) 2 years later and had a 100 point season.
Kuznetsov put up 11G, 37P (at an older age) in his first full season then put up 77 a year later.
Giroux (as a 21 year old) put up 16G, 47P in his first full season and then 76 two years later and 93 the year after that.
Seguin put up 11G, 22 points as an 18 YO rookie, but 2 full seasons (excluding lockout) later had 37G, 84P
Rantanen put up 20G, 38P as a rookie, then 29/84 in year 2, and is on pace for over 100 in year 3.

I'm not saying Svechnikov will achieve those numbers as I'll be happy with a 30/30 guy, but using his 18 year old numbers, when he's being eased in on the 3rd line with Martinook and Wallmark isn't a good way to gauge him either.

All that said, I agree with Leafs fans that there is no way they move Marner.

I never said it is unheard of for a 18 year to have a mediocre first season and then become a super star. Some of those are definitely good comprables.

Im not judging him based on his current 18 year old season and writing him off. Im just saying it is a far thing from a certainty that Svechnikov will reach Marner's current play. I would be saying a similar argument if he was pacing for 50 points this year too. People seem to think development is so linear and tend to overrate prospects as a result.

This isnt at all directed at you btw. More directed to the people saying Svechnikov would only be available in a 1 for 1 for Marner.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I never said it is unheard of for a 18 year to have a mediocre first season and then become a super star. Some of those are definitely good comprables.

Im not judging him based on his current 18 year old season and writing him off. Im just saying it is a far thing from a certainty that Svechnikov will reach Marner's current play. I would be saying a similar argument if he was pacing for 50 points this year too. People seem to think development is so linear and tend to overrate prospects as a result.

Yeah, I agree. Like I said earlier, I agree that it's not "very likely" that he hits 100 points in 2 years.

This isnt at all directed at you btw. More directed to the people saying Svechnikov would only be available in a 1 for 1 for Marner.

Yep, no offense taken. I understand.

 

[Nylanderthal]

HF in a nutshell. *Broad, sweeping absolute declaration about the ability of a player whose name I can't spell*

I had my phone auto correct me on one post, check out my other postings. Doubt you’ll find me misspelling names often. Doesn’t change anything about the kind of player fish is though

 

[Nylanderthal]

You won't get that for Nylander. Not even close. Pesce for Nylander straight up is more likely.

Given the Leafs obvious cap problem, this probably would be a good deal.

Sorta like how hall for Larsson worked for Edmonton? Dubas isn’t an idiot contrary to opposing fans wishes.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Take it up with my man @The Big D, he specified RIGHT NOW when comparing them.

Exactly, right now Nylander looks like the better player now and going forward. Not saying Svechnikov isn’t going to be good. Nylander is just on another level

 

[NyIander]

Marner will not be moved.

 

[Ahoy there]

People seem to think development is so linear and tend to overrate prospects as a result.

Pretty much the argument Canes' fans have made over the returns of Kap, AJ, Brown Lil from TOR fans in proposals.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Pretty much the argument Canes' fans have made over the returns of Kap, AJ, Brown Lil from TOR fans in proposals.

Yup a lot of the argument are fair enough. Always crazy people on both sides, important not to generalize the other side.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

So Marner's ceiling are only 69 points? I project him to be better.

Obviously going off of pace or else you could say Svechnikov is a 27 point player....

 

[LakeLivin]

Watching how powerful he is at 18 I'm pretty comfortable that Svech is going to be a beast. And it's not like he doesn't have skills. Can't wait to see him on a line with more highly skilled players.

Just an editorial comment, with no opinion expressed as to how he might eventually end up in relation to Marner (totally different types) or even an opinion on the value of the OP trade proposal since both teams likely decline.

 

[My Special Purpose]

This trade is just silly. Not from a value perspective, but from a "this deal has zero chance of happening for many reasons" perspective.

First of all, in order for the Canes to compete in the current environment, they need players producing on their entry-level contracts, and they need guys willing to sign long-term at reasonable rates once those deals expire. Svech and Pesce fit in perfectly with the way a small-market team *has* to do business. Trading them for Marner hurts because it absolutely blows up the Canes' process. Svech (a 2018 pick) may or may not develop to Marner's level (a 2015 draftee), but the Canes simply can't afford to give up the three seasons of cost control between the two players.

Secondly, both the Leafs and the Canes have developed a bond with their high draft picks. Lots of money has been spent to market them. Fans have purchased merchandise, etc. You simply can't convince us Marner is better than Svech, and we can't convince you the other way. These players never get traded because their teams trust their scouts, are happy with their players, and at 18 years of age, they have only scratched the surface of what they can be. Plus, Peter Chiarelli isn't involved with either club, so it won't happen.

If you want to get into value, let's keep in mind that Svechnikov is *still* 18 years old. At this point in Marner's development, he was still playing for London. Svech projects to a 20g, 18a, 18-year-old rookie NHL season in 14:42 of average ice with 201 shots on goal, all with horrific linemates (put Marner with Jordan Martinook and Brock McGinn and see if he can put up 100 points). He's tracking perfectly toward his projection of being the next Marian Hossa. After spending a season playing for Portland (WHL), Hossa turned 20 halfway through his rookie season that saw him put up 15g, 15a and 124 shots in 60gp (so, figure 20g, 20a, 165sog over 80 games).

So, why would Carolina trade an 18-year-old Marian Hossa *at all*? And that doesn't even get into Pesce. Like I said, Marner's great, but he's staying in Toronto. Carolina thinks they have something great in Svechnikov, and he's staying in Carolina.

 

[IceBoxHockey]

Boy is Svech getting underrated in this thread.

 

[IceBoxHockey]

Exactly, right now Nylander looks like the better player now and going forward. Not saying Svechnikov isn’t going to be good. Nylander is just on another level

What Svech is doing his 18 year old season is impressive, not sure how nylander is on another level going forward.

 

[SaskCanesFan]

Exactly, right now Nylander looks like the better player now and going forward. Not saying Svechnikov isn’t going to be good. Nylander is just on another level

Going forward? What part of Svech being more highly touted, going 2nd overall, making the NHL at 18, and being ahead of Nylander at their respective ages every year, puts Nylander on "another level?"

 

[My Special Purpose]

Exactly, right now Nylander looks like the better player now and going forward. Not saying Svechnikov isn’t going to be good. Nylander is just on another level

Yeah, a lower one.

I wouldn't do the trade in the OP for reasons I outlined above, but at least I can see some value there. If Toronto offered Nylander for Svechnikov, 1-for-1, I'd laugh in their faces. And I suspect Toronto management is smart enough to know that.

 

[The S5]

Exactly, right now Nylander looks like the better player now and going forward. Not saying Svechnikov isn’t going to be good. Nylander is just on another level

Nah.

 

[spiderham616]

Yeah, a lower one.

I wouldn't do the trade in the OP for reasons I outlined above, but at least I can see some value there. If Toronto offered Nylander for Svechnikov, 1-for-1, I'd laugh in their faces. And I suspect Toronto management is smart enough to know that.

This trade is just silly. Not from a value perspective, but from a "this deal has zero chance of happening for many reasons" perspective.

First of all, in order for the Canes to compete in the current environment, they need players producing on their entry-level contracts, and they need guys willing to sign long-term at reasonable rates once those deals expire. Svech and Pesce fit in perfectly with the way a small-market team *has* to do business. Trading them for Marner hurts because it absolutely blows up the Canes' process. Svech (a 2018 pick) may or may not develop to Marner's level (a 2015 draftee), but the Canes simply can't afford to give up the three seasons of cost control between the two players.

Secondly, both the Leafs and the Canes have developed a bond with their high draft picks. Lots of money has been spent to market them. Fans have purchased merchandise, etc. You simply can't convince us Marner is better than Svech, and we can't convince you the other way. These players never get traded because their teams trust their scouts, are happy with their players, and at 18 years of age, they have only scratched the surface of what they can be. Plus, Peter Chiarelli isn't involved with either club, so it won't happen.

If you want to get into value, let's keep in mind that Svechnikov is *still* 18 years old. At this point in Marner's development, he was still playing for London. Svech projects to a 20g, 18a, 18-year-old rookie NHL season in 14:42 of average ice with 201 shots on goal, all with horrific linemates (put Marner with Jordan Martinook and Brock McGinn and see if he can put up 100 points). He's tracking perfectly toward his projection of being the next Marian Hossa. After spending a season playing for Portland (WHL), Hossa turned 20 halfway through his rookie season that saw him put up 15g, 15a and 124 shots in 60gp (so, figure 20g, 20a, 165sog over 80 games).

So, why would Carolina trade an 18-year-old Marian Hossa *at all*? And that doesn't even get into Pesce. Like I said, Marner's great, but he's staying in Toronto. Carolina thinks they have something great in Svechnikov, and he's staying in Carolina.

Can't convince you Marner is better than Svech, is anyone better than Svech in the league other than McDavid?


The OP isn't trying to convince Carolina fans to be reasonable, he just proposing a trade.

To suggest that there is no case that Marner > Svech because of a 'bond' is completely solipsistic.

I have 20 bucks that says you were posting on how Hanifin was better than Marner the day they were drafted. Muh team > reason.

 

[rockinghockey]

I’d consider that for Nylander, but Marner is pretty much a non starter.

Of course TO fans are over valuing Marner, getting Pesce and Svechnikov is an over pay for him. If I was CAR I would rather keep the two players they have

 

[My Special Purpose]

Can't convince you Marner is better than Svech, is anyone better than Svech in the league other than McDavid?

It's not about better.

Canes fans hold the opinion that Svech will be a superstar, on par with Marner, although they are completely different players. That does not mean we value one over the other or think one is better. It means we *prefer* Svechnikov. Maybe we'll be proven wrong sometime down the line, but we don't care. We'd rather have an 18-year-old Svechnikov who's ceiling is unknown, than a 21-year-old Marner, who has shown he's an elite player. No offense to Marner, we just prefer Svech.

It's the reason kids one or two years past their draft don't get traded a lot. There's no way to know what you're trading, and the ceiling is still well within reach.

The OP isn't trying to convince Carolina fans to be reasonable, he just proposing a trade.

To suggest that there is no case that Marner > Svech because of a 'bond' is completely solipsistic.

Nice job with the big word, but it's poorly executed. As I tried to explain, nobody is saying Svech is better than Marner. There's just no way Carolina will trade Svech for Marner for the same reason Toronto won't trade Marner for Svech. Marner is a Leaf. Svech is a Cane. The Leafs prefer Marner. We prefer Svech. It's obviously hard to explain, but look at the first four pages of this thread and how many Leafs fans completely dismiss this trade despite the value being tilted Toronto's way. You just don't trade core pieces.

I have 20 bucks that says you were posting on how Hanifin was better than Marner the day they were drafted. Muh team > reason.

My paypal is [email protected]. I hated the Hanifin pick from the first minute. I hate first-round d-men, and we had taken Fleury the year before (also a bad pick, IMO) at No. 7 (when we should've taken Nylander). If Hanifin had asked, I'd have driven him to the airport after he was traded this summer. I read an opinion on him that prior to the draft that he "peaked in college" and I wanted nothing to do with him. That opinion seems pretty accurate now, and I'm glad he's somebody else's problem.

If you knew me and my history, you would not doubt my ability to criticize my own team's moves. Leafs fans on the other hand, not so much, as this thread -- and about 100 other threads just like it -- can attest. (Nylander is a level above Svech? Marner is a tier above Aho?)

Unfortunately, Marner went No. 4 and we picked No. 5, making it very difficult for us to draft Marner. Or are you unsure how drafts work?