Confirmed with Link: [TOR/PIT] RW Kapanen, D Lindgren, LW Aberg for '20 1st(15th), LW Rodrigues, C Hallander, D Warsofsky

[kb]

I guess that’s where I struggle. If it’s an obvious overpay to fans is the thought that Rutherford is now oblivious?

Well, how do you classify the Marleau deal to the Canes?

 

[Mess]

Rutherford in his PC said he acquired Kapanen to play with Crosby, so that seems like he is addressing a need and a want in his top 6 in order to increase the teams competitiveness after 2 X disappointing 1st round exits. The #1 goal of any GM is try and build a successful Stanley Cup team which Rutherford has proven more than capable of.

Kapanen was originally a 1st round pick by Pens (#22OA in 2014), then groomed for 4 years by Leafs and turned into a 20 goals +40 point (age 24) NHLer, which was then turned back into a 1st round pick (#15OA in 2020) again. Its almost as if Pens GM let Leafs invest time and effort in development and then took him back when he is now a capable NHLer and let Leafs start all over again with another 1st round pick.

To add further to this Dubas acquired Kapanen originally from the Pens as a main piece in the Kessel trade of which Kyle agreed to eat 6 years @ $1.2 mil salary retention helping manage Pens salary cap. Pittsburgh then went on to win 2 X Stanley Cups with Kessel. Now that they've moved on from Phil they reacquired Kappy to try and win another. Rutherford almost seems to be using the Leafs as his farm and feeder system and helping his cap situation.

As with all draft picks there is no guarantee the player selected with that #15 overall pick will become as successful as Kapanen is now, and if so we're still years away when getting that answer.

The risk of this trade falls in Leafs hands as Pens know what they're currently getting and likely still seeing further growth potential. However I also suspect Dubas would like to replicate this himself to improve the current roster by re-investing the pick in a deal to bring in an NHLer and increasing the certainty of the return on investment helping fuel Leafs Cup competitiveness for this upcoming season and beyond.

 

[justashadowof]

I'm not so sure this trade was an overpay by Pittsburgh. Kapanen is a better player than the theoretical average player picked @15.

 

[Walshy7]

Because the team's cap structure is desperately out of balance and the return for cheaper Nylander is doubtlessly higher than for the more expensive winger.

marner? You are underselling marner there he is elite but $3.93m more elite than nylander? Not sure. Trading him to a team who doesn’t have the offensive talent we have would net a hell of a package or top player hopefully on d in return

 

[ACC1224]

Well, how do you classify the Marleau deal to the Canes?

Terrible planning

 

[kb]

Terrible planning

Well, I would disagree. Marleau originally said he was good with close to home (Arizona/California teams), and then changed his mind to San Jose only at the end. That's not on Dubas. He had only a couple of days to get rid of that cap hit. All of that cap hit.

There was nothing else he could do.

 

[justashadowof]

marner? You are underselling marner there he is elite but $3.93m more elite than nylander? Not sure. Trading him to a team who doesn’t have the offensive talent we have would net a hell of a package or top player hopefully on d in return

I already explained why Nylander making only an average of $4.125M over the next 4 seasons after his bonus payout is more desirable on the trade market. Marner's going to have the better career, Nylander's just more valuable on the trade market by a large margin.

 

[ACC1224]

Well, I would disagree. Marleau originally said he was good with close to home (Arizona/California teams), and then changed his mind to San Jose only at the end. That's not on Dubas. He had only a couple of days to get rid of that cap hit. All of that cap hit.

There was nothing else he could do.

Not put himself in the position where he had to get rid of the cap hit.

 

[LeafChief]

Not put himself in the position where he had to get rid of the cap hit.

Yeah - what was he thinking when he signed that contract with an absolutely ridiculous bonus structure.

Oh, wait.

 

[kb]

Not put himself in the position where he had to get rid of the cap hit.

Ok, so we are back to Lou's terrible signings.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

In a results-oriented business you can't argue that JR hasn't gotten them .. He's a decent GM from what I've seen, not great nor poor. It certainly helps him that he had his team built around Crosby, Malkin, and Letang ... That's as good of a core as you'll ever get.

But you look at his moves and there have been some good ones, and some questionable ones.

Probably goes to show that a GM doesn't have to be perfect in order to reach success. That being said his moves now are getting more crucial as his core gets older and passing their prime. He hasn't done a great job at draft/developing high-end talent behind his core players that can eventually take on the bigger roles as the core gets past their mid-30's.

Rutherford was brought in to win Cups and not to draft/develop high-end talent behind his core to "eventually take on the bigger roles as the core gets past their mid-30's." It is almost impossible to do both well. When your team is in a constant win now approach trading prospects and picks every year for the past decade and more starting way back with the Hossa deal. Pens won 3 Cups with this approach and have been the most successful franchise during the Crosby era.

When you look back at all the trades for picks and prospects during all those years how many of those turned out to be studs or even good top 6 forwards, good top 4 defenseman, or starting goaltenders? Pens have given up many prospects and picks for players that could help during those years. The list is huge of the good to great players they brought in compared to how the picks and prospects turned out, tell me what list you rather have.

Pens: Hossa, Dupuis, Hal Gill, Bill Guerin, Kovalev, Brenden Morrow, IGinla, Jussi Jokinen, Perron, Kessel, Schultz, Ron Hainsey, Brassard, Zucker, and now Kapanen.

The list of picks and prospects that developed into those types of players: Barzal (Pens pick traded to Oilers who then traded it to Islander's who picked him. Kapanen (Part of the Kessel deal that gave us two. Cups)

That is it! Looking back on the Crosby era and all the 1st round and high picks and prospects given up only those two players became a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman. Of those two players the best one didn't even get drafted by the team we traded him to.

So the bottom line is that even though 1st round picks and prospects are nice, the vast majority never turn out.

The Pens went to 4 Cup Finals with this strategy and won 3 of them. All those picks and prospects along the way only produced 2 top 6 forwards and brought in a ton of talent that many stayed for several years. Another hilarious part of these deals are that Guentzel, our best complementary player on the team came from one of these deals (Joe Morrow and Pens 5th for Brendon Morrow rental and a 3rd round pick (Guentzel).

So while it looks good for those teams at the time getting picks and high prospects, it usually goes in favor of the team getting the good NHL player. Almost always is better if it is for a player in prime with term.

Doesn't hurt that Rutherford got some almost free top 4 defenseman (Pettersson and Marino). Only a bust prospect and a 6th for those two. The team is actually fairly young around the core considering the Pens win now approach.

 

[ACC1224]

Ok, so we are back to Lou's terrible signings.

Lou was already gone when Dubas maxed out the cap.

 

[ACC1224]

Yeah - what was he thinking when he signed that contract with an absolutely ridiculous bonus structure.

Oh, wait.

I assume he was thinking and it wasn’t just an over sight. Put himself in a bad position though

 

[LeafsNation75]

Not put himself in the position where he had to get rid of the cap hit.

Even if Dubas had traded Kapanen and Johnsson before he traded Marleau and a 1st round pick to Carolina, wouldn't it still have been harder to re-sign Marner with Marleau still on the salary cap?

Plus I remember around that time there were reports about Kapanen and Johnsson possibly getting offer sheets in the compensation between $2,029,660 to $4,059,322 which meant giving up a 2nd round pick, because of what the Leafs salary cap was going to look like going into the 2019-20 season. So if Dubas wanted to trade them to avoid possible offer sheets why would any teams at the time given him a 1st round pick for either one?

 

[kb]

Rutherford was brought in to win Cups and not to draft/develop high-end talent behind his core to "eventually take on the bigger roles as the core gets past their mid-30's." It is almost impossible to do both well. When your team is in a constant win know approach trading prospects and picks every year for the past decade and more starting way back with the Hossa deal. Pens won 3 Cups with this approach and have been the most successful franchise during the Crosby era.

When you look back at all the trades for picks and prospects during all those years how many of those turned out to be studs or even good top 6 forwards, good top 4 defenseman, or starting goaltenders? Pens have given up many prospects and picks for players that could help during those years. The list is huge of the good to great players they brought in compared to how the picks and prospects turned out, tell me what list you rather have.

Pens: Hossa, Dupuis, Hal Gill, Bill Guerin, Kovalev, Brenden Morrow, IGinla, Jussi Jokinen, Perron, Kessel, Schultz, Ron Hainsey, Brassard, Zucker, and now Kapanen.

The list of picks and prospects that developed into those types of players: Barzal (Pens pick traded to Oilers who then traded it to Islander's who picked him. Kapanen (Part of the Kessel deal that gave us two. Cups)

That is it! Looking back on the Crosby era and all the 1st round and high picks and prospects given up only those two players became a top 6 forward or top 4 defenseman. Of those two players the best one didn't even get drafted by the team we traded him to.

So the bottom line is that even though 1st round picks and prospects are nice, the vast majority never turn out.

The Pens went to 4 Cup Finals with this strategy and won 3 of them. All those picks and prospects along the way only produced 2 top 6 forwards and brought in a ton of talent that many stayed for several years. Another hilarious part of these deals are that Guentzel, our best complementary player on the team came from one of these deals (Joe Morrow and Pens 5th for Brendon Morrow and a 3rd round pick (Guentzel).

So while it looks good for those teams at the time getting picks and high prospects, it usually goes in favor of the team getting the good NHL player. Almost always is better if it is for a player in prime with term.

Doesn't hurt that Rutherford got some almost free top 4 defenseman (Pettersson and Marino). Only a bust prospect and a 6th for those two. The team is actually fairly young around the core considering the Pens win now approach.

Don't disagree with too much of this, but for the Leafs, the key was the cap space the deal freed up. My main argument against this is that I don't think it would have been too hard to find someone cheaper this year in UFA who scores 13 goals while keeping those assets for another move.

The entire league knew Dubas was pressed up tight to the cap. Freeing cap and getting #15 plus Hallander was a very astute move. Dubas has already hinted that #15 is in play for a real upgrade.

 

[kb]

Lou was already gone when Dubas maxed out the cap.

The Leafs cap is and always has been maxed out. It was even in their 30th place season too.

 

[Guy Boucher]

I guess that’s where I struggle. If it’s an obvious overpay to fans is the thought that Rutherford is now oblivious?

I don't think people fully understand Rutherford's motivations. Ownership has told him to cut salary, so he somehow needs to improve his team while lowering their salary costs.

And while Kapanen has a $3.2M cap hit, he is owed an average of $2.6M for the next two years in actual cash. Also the Leafs took Warsofsky in the deal, and he was owed $400k in his minor deal - meaning the Penguins are effectively paying $2.2M for Kapanen next year.

I'm sure there were much better wingers they could have traded for using 15th overall+Hallander but I'm sure all of them would cost $4-6M in cash, which Rutherford couldn't afford. They paid a premium because Kapanen was uniquely affordable for them.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Don't disagree with too much of this, but for the Leafs, the key was the cap space the deal freed up. My main argument against this is that I don't think it would have been too hard to find someone cheaper this year in UFA who scores 13 goals while keeping those assets for another move.

The entire league knew Dubas was pressed up tight to the cap. Freeing cap and getting #15 plus Hallander was a very astute move. Dubas has already hinted that #15 is in play for a real upgrade.

Knowing that Dubas wanted to trade Kapanen to free up some cap space you got to wonder why Rutherford was willing to trade him a 1st round pick? It's like how Don Waddell knew Dubas had to trade Marleau's contract and used that leverage to get the Maple Leafs 2020 1st round pick.

Yes one obvious answer is he liked Kapanen and had history since he drafted him in 2014. Plus he's still trying to contend because they still have Crosby and Malkin.

However the reports are how the other GM's Dubas spoke with did not want to give up their 2020 1st round picks.

 

[Gallagbi]

You have to admit the line of thinking that Dubas took advantage of him is pretty comical.

I think Dubas set a high price that he met. I wouldn't have met it if I was JR personally and it's not the only questionable move he's made lately

 

[17 Clark]

I'm not so sure this trade was an overpay by Pittsburgh. Kapanen is a better player than the theoretical average player picked @15.

Don’t try to justify that to the Kyle fans They still think the 15th pick overall is the key piece to the Stanley Cup I agree with you I think he’s better than 15 overall pick too many uncertainties and what we might get too long to groom the person

 

[justashadowof]

Even if Dubas had traded Kapanen and Johnsson before he traded Marleau and a 1st round pick to Carolina, wouldn't it still have been harder to re-sign Marner with Marleau still on the salary cap?

Plus I remember around that time there were reports about Kapanen and Johnsson possibly getting offer sheets in the compensation between $2,029,660 to $4,059,322 which meant giving up a 2nd round pick, because of what the Leafs salary cap was going to look like going into the 2019-20 season. So if Dubas wanted to trade them to avoid possible offer sheets why would any teams at the time given him a 1st round pick for either one?

Good then. It seems like Marner's agent was always getting whatever cap space Dubas had left. Better to have less cap space in this instance.

Plus I remember around that time there were reports about Kapanen and Johnsson possibly getting offer sheets in the compensation between $2,029,660 to $4,059,322 which meant giving up a 2nd round pick, because of what the Leafs salary cap was going to look like going into the 2019-20 season. So if Dubas wanted to trade them to avoid possible offer sheets why would any teams at the time given him a 1st round pick for either one?

Fair question. Because a player's trade value isn't completely dependent on the restricted free agency compensation system. The fact that the Leafs would have probably matched any offer in that range speaks volume that the player is worth more than a 2nd round. Not to mention that if several teams want the player in that salary range, one team is going to value the player more than other teams.

 

[LeafsNation75]

You have to admit the line of thinking that Dubas took advantage of him is pretty comical.

Isn't that what Don Waddell did when he got the Leafs 2020 1st round pick for taking on Patrick Marleau's contract so he could buy him out.

When the reports are how none of the other teams interested in Kapanen were willing to trade their 2020 1st round picks for him and Jim Rutherford obviously was willing to do that, can't it be implied that Dubas got the better of him?

 

[LeafsNation75]

Fair question. Because a player's trade value isn't completely dependent on the restricted free agency compensation system. The fact that the Leafs would have probably matched any offer in that range speaks volume that the player is worth more than a 2nd round. Not to mention that if several teams want the player in that salary range, one team is going to value the player more than other teams.

Let's say in a hypothetical example Kapanen and Johnsson became RFA's last offseason and both signed offer sheets that totaled $4,059,322 AAV. That meant the Leafs could only get a 2nd round pick if they decided not to match. So why would any teams at that time traded a 1st round pick for either player if Dubas was asking for it.

I remember the reports at that time were how some teams were planning on doing that knowing the Leafs salary cap at that time.

Instead we saw Kapanen sign for $3.2 million AAV and Johnsson sign for $3.4 million AAV.

 

[kb]

Knowing that Dubas wanted to trade Kapanen to free up some cap space you got to wonder why Rutherford was willing to trade him a 1st round pick? It's like how Don Waddell knew Dubas had to trade Marleau's contract and used that leverage to get the Maple Leafs 2020 1st round pick.

Yes one obvious answer is he liked Kapanen and had history since he drafted him in 2014. Plus he's still trying to contend because they still have Crosby and Malkin.

However the reports are how the other GM's Dubas spoke with did not want to give up their 2020 1st round picks.

I was shocked he got a mid-first plus Hallander and cap space. Still am to some degree.

I love how I keep seeing "I'm not going to call this a good trade until X, Y, Z happens". Some people refuse to see anything good under this regime.

 

[kb]

Let's say in a hypothetical example Kapanen and Johnsson became RFA's last offseason and both signed offer sheets that totaled $4,059,322 AAV. That meant the Leafs could only get a 2nd round pick if they decided not to match. So why would any teams at that time traded a 1st round pick for either player if Dubas was asking for it.

I remember the reports at that time were how some teams were planning on doing that knowing the Leafs salary cap at that time.

Instead we saw Kapanen sign for $3.2 million AAV and Johnsson sign for $3.4 million AAV.

Yep, their values were set at a 2nd round pick last off-season by the NHL offer sheet rules. People don't seem to realize or understand this.