Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[Felix the Cat Potvin]

2 of Lou's first moves on the Island were to trade for Martin and sign Komarov. This is not something isolated to the Leafs. You tend to trust what you know.

There's a difference between acquiring players you've had success with at a professional level versus junior level. Junior Dubas, a house cat among lions.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

There's a difference between acquiring players you've had success with at a professional level versus junior level. Junior Dubas, a house cat among lions.

So which of his Soo players have proven your "house cat among lions" comment?

Was it 925k for Bunting?
Was it Campbell, who just got 5m?
Was it Lehner, who had an almost Vezina season recently?
Was it Jared McCann, who went on to pot 30 last year?

The only Soo miss so far has been Nick Ritchie, and I will not defend that one.

Matt Murray may or may not be a miss, but he's won a cup and his underlying numbers on the Sens, who are horrendous defensively, were mediocre. I can live with mediocre, if he can come in here and provide that.

 

[ACC1224]

So which of his Soo players have proven your "house cat among lions" comment?

Was it 925k for Bunting?
Was it Campbell, who just got 5m?
Was it Lehner, who had an almost Vezina season recently?
Was it Jared McCann, who went on to pot 30 last year?

The only Soo miss so far has been Nick Ritchie, and I will not defend that one.

Matt Murray may or may not be a miss, but he's won a cup and his underlying numbers on the Sens, who are horrendous defensively, were mediocre. I can live with mediocre, if he can come in here and provide that.

Perhaps the bolded should have been retained.

 

[Mess]

Why Maple Leafs should think twice about a Murray trade (and why they might do it anyway)​

So, as Elliotte Friedman reported Sunday, Dubas has circled back to the possibility of trading for Matt Murray out of Ottawa. This is how you try to talk yourself into the idea that Murray is the answer for Toronto’s net:

Familiarity breeds confidence.

Both Dubas and head coach Sheldon Keefe worked with Murray when he was a Soo Greyhound about a decade ago. They know the character, and there is a belief that if anyone can summon a bounce-back performance out of the goaltender, it’s them. Further, Leafs goalie evaluator and developer Jon Elkin — goes even further back. Call up the homepage of Elkin’s goalie school, and you’ll be greeted with a photo of Murray in his Penguins kit, tagged with this quote: “I’ve been attending Jon’s camp since I was 10 and still work with him today. He’s taught me sound fundamentals and what it takes to succeed.”

For better or worse, this Leafs regime is high on loyalty.

Dubas is a firm believer in the large sample size.





So even though Murray has been a sub-.900 goalie over the past three seasons, he’s a playoff performer with a .911 career saves rate. If Murray doesn’t work out, there is time to adjust. Should a fresh start and open path to seize the net of a relevant team not inspire a return to form for Murray, Dubas could still re-evaluate mid-season and make a second trade. Just because Murray starts in October doesn’t guarantee he starts in April.

All that familiarity and fierce loyalty to the Soo Greyhounds alum with the shiny playoff résumé (29-21, .921, two rings) will have paid off in spectacular fashion. Toronto’s Dubas, coach Sheldon Keefe and goalie guru Jon Elkin may well be proven correct, that they understood the character and foresaw a triumphant bounce-back.

Why Maple Leafs should think twice about a Murray trade (and why they might do it anyway)

Even though the price on Murray might be friendlier than others on a shrinking list of options, he is three years removed from dependable starts. There is a saying in sports: You get what you pay for.

www.sportsnet.ca

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Perhaps the bolded should have been retained.

I always like Lehner too, I wish we had kept him.

Why Maple Leafs should think twice about a Murray trade (and why they might do it anyway)​

Mess, why don't you make another attempt at using GSAA (oops, used cumulative despite GP gap!) to prove why Murray sucks again? I am having a bad day and could use a laugh.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I always like Lehner too, I wish we had kept him.



Mess, why don't you make another attempt at using GSAA (oops, used cumulative despite GP gap!) to prove why Murray sucks again? I am having a bad day and could use a laugh.

I like the ones where he posts a 1000 word article about Lehner making a nothing tweet better, those ones really prove Mess's point about something or other I'm sure.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It has been discussed before but understand that it's got to be over 95% of NHL players and personnel who have no connection whatsoever to the Soo. It's a crazy over-representation. If you've got pro and amateur scouting you've hired and believe in, that should never happen because the best player (or front office hire) available at any time has at least a 95% chance of not having a connection to the Soo Greyhound organization.

Let's see how bad it actually is:

4/24 of the Leafs' current scouting staff has a connection to the Soo or was a friend of a member of that organization: Carneiro, Roque, Clark, and Moulson (friends with Clark, Tavares, etc. from his childhood but no known connection to Dubas; long time NHL player). Presumably, whoever we hire to replace Vuori (who was the 25th member of the team) will not have a connection to the Soo. Carneiro and Roque were fairly highly touted guys out of the OHL; Carneiro with 20 years of experience as an OHL scout (much of which with London), and Roque a little over a decade evenly split between Kingston and the Soo.

Coaching wise, Keefe, McLean, and Elkin are the only ones between the entire Leafs and Marlies coaching/conditioning/development staff (unless I am missing someone). Complain about Keefe all you want, but if we didn't give him an NHL job, another team would have. McLean is the Marlies assistant coach, and while he has actually performed well the entire time, has yet to receive a promotion in the 5 years he has been in this organization. This year is the first time in 3 years where the Leafs are not completely overhauling their assistant coaches... Plenty of opportunity for Keefe/Dubas to add him to that staff. Elkin was with the Soo for one year... he had been an NHL goalie coach for 6 years and coached Matt Murray, Mike Smith, etc. He was brought in for the Marlies. You typically do not get guys with that kind of resume for an AHL team. IDK the exact number people in the organization in those departments combined, but it has to be over 50.

Then for the players: Matt Murray, Jack Campbell, Michael Bunting, Kyle Clifford (not a Soo player but represented by Dubas at one point), Mac Hollowell, Nick Ritchie, Jake Muzzin, and if you really want to reach, you can include Wayne Simmonds, Joe Thornton, Michael Amadio (never played for Dubas, but from the Soo), and Rasmus Sandin in there.

He drafted 2 guys out of the Soo in 5 drafts (35 picks total), and one of those two guys was an import pick who only joined the organization long after Dubas left. He is more likely a Bergman pick than a Soo pick. The other was a 4th round pick. There are more who are connected to other people in the organization (i.e. Speltz drafted Kral when he was in Spokane; Derkatch drafted Scott when he was in Prince Albert; Hunter drafted a bunch of London guys who ultimately ended up somewhere in our organization), but at that point, hockey is so tight that everyone at this level knows each other in one way or another. I am also not going to count the AHL contracts because honestly, nepotism away at that point. Most of them were just filling out depth or ECHL spots anyways and were mostly no better or worse than a typical guy we bring in to do the same every year.

Some worked out (Bunting, Campbell, Muzzin, Sandin), others did not (Clifford, Ritchie, Simmonds, Thornton, Amadio), and then we have the big TBD with Matt Murray.

In the grand scheme of things, it may be a little bit more than 5% of the overall pool of personnel, but it is certainly not much more than that. Considering every organization in the NHL, and sports in general, will have some level of nepotism, I do not think we have anything excessive. There is also something to be said about using nepotism and prior familiarity to your advantage as well. That is pretty much the entire basis of "networking". For example, Dubas knew something about Bunting that others did not, and Bunting was willing to take less to come here because he loved the city, and Dubas/Keefe trusted him in the past.

Ultimately, the most important part is that the guys we are bringing in, at least for the most part, are doing well enough to earn the opportunities we have been giving them. It is just as unwise to completely ignore someone because you fear nepotism than to hire them because of it.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Let's see how bad it actually is:

4/24 of the Leafs' current scouting staff has a connection to the Soo or was a friend of a member of that organization: Carneiro, Roque, Clark, and Moulson (friends with Clark, Tavares, etc. from his childhood but no known connection to Dubas; long time NHL player). Presumably, whoever we hire to replace Vuori (who was the 25th member of the team) will not have a connection to the Soo. Carneiro and Roque were fairly highly touted guys out of the OHL; Carneiro with 20 years of experience as an OHL scout (much of which with London), and Roque a little over a decade evenly split between Kingston and the Soo.

Coaching wise, Keefe, McLean, and Elkin are the only ones between the entire Leafs and Marlies coaching/conditioning/development staff (unless I am missing someone). Complain about Keefe all you want, but if we didn't give him an NHL job, another team would have. McLean is the Marlies assistant coach, and while he has actually performed well the entire time, has yet to receive a promotion in the 5 years he has been in this organization. This year is the first time in 3 years where the Leafs are not completely overhauling their assistant coaches... Plenty of opportunity for Keefe/Dubas to add him to that staff. Elkin was with the Soo for one year... he had been an NHL goalie coach for 6 years and coached Matt Murray, Mike Smith, etc. He was brought in for the Marlies. You typically do not get guys with that kind of resume for an AHL team. IDK the exact number people in the organization in those departments combined, but it has to be over 50.

Then for the players: Matt Murray, Jack Campbell, Michael Bunting, Kyle Clifford (not a Soo player but represented by Dubas at one point), Mac Hollowell, Nick Ritchie, Jake Muzzin, and if you really want to reach, you can include Wayne Simmonds, Joe Thornton, Michael Amadio (never played for Dubas, but from the Soo), and Rasmus Sandin in there.

He drafted 2 guys out of the Soo in 5 drafts (35 picks total), and one of those two guys was an import pick who only joined the organization long after Dubas left. He is more likely a Bergman pick than a Soo pick. The other was a 4th round pick. There are more who are connected to other people in the organization (i.e. Speltz drafted Kral when he was in Spokane; Derkatch drafted Scott when he was in Prince Albert; Hunter drafted a bunch of London guys who ultimately ended up somewhere in our organization), but at that point, hockey is so tight that everyone at this level knows each other in one way or another. I am also not going to count the AHL contracts because honestly, nepotism away at that point. Most of them were just filling out depth or ECHL spots anyways and were mostly no better or worse than a typical guy we bring in to do the same every year.

Some worked out (Bunting, Campbell, Muzzin, Sandin), others did not (Clifford, Ritchie, Simmonds, Thornton, Amadio), and then we have the big TBD with Matt Murray.

In the grand scheme of things, it may be a little bit more than 5% of the overall pool of personnel, but it is certainly not much more than that. Considering every organization in the NHL, and sports in general, will have some level of nepotism, I do not think we have anything excessive. There is also something to be said about using nepotism and prior familiarity to your advantage as well. That is pretty much the entire basis of "networking". For example, Dubas knew something about Bunting that others did not, and Bunting was willing to take less to come here because he loved the city, and Dubas/Keefe trusted him in the past.

Ultimately, the most important part is that the guys we are bringing in, at least for the most part, are doing well enough to earn the opportunities we have been giving them. It is just as unwise to completely ignore someone because you fear nepotism than to hire them because of it.

This new age nepotism is so much more heinous than good ol' boys club nepotism. Stupid Dubas isn't even old enough to have a son we could hire to be a no-name scout and then promote him to Senior Vice President for completely legitimate non-nepotistic reasons.

 

[kb]

There's a difference between acquiring players you've had success with at a professional level versus junior level. Junior Dubas, a house cat among lions.

You mean the Soo guys who have actually proven themselves at the NHL level too? Those guys?

Riddle me this. Does it matter in any way, shape, or form where a player played before? If so, why? Explanation please....

 

[Nineteen67]

I get the distinct feeling this thread will be locked if Matt Murray ends up doing well.

Everyone loves a redemption story and I think most people are pulling for him.

 

[leafsfan5]

I think Murray will end up doing good when healthy. Can see him with a .915+ save percentage and being a stable force in net

But the issue is I don't think he'll stay healthy for long

 

[Tarmore]

Here is my viewpoint, calling balls and strikes when calculating batting average.

Jack Campbell - Leafs Salary Cap issues and mismanagement resulted in Leafs having to go cheap and only afford $1,650,000 for a starting goalie Campbell (an NHL backup) and then thought they could beat Carey Price @ $10 mil AAV and Andrei Vasilevskiy $9.5 mil AAV in a playoff series, who are arguably 2 of the best goalies in the game (when healthy) resulting in Lost in round #1 in 2021 and 2022. While Montreal with Price played Tampa with Vas for the Stanley Cup in 2021.

Robin Lehner - Leafs decided to retain $1.1 mil salary to facilitate a deal between Chicago and Vegas at trade deadline instead of helping their own team.
Toronto traded • rights to Martins Dzierkals in a 3-team trade with Blackhawks, Golden Knights for • 2020 fifth round pick (from Golden Knights) while retaining $1.1 mil (44% of Chicago 50%) retention on 2020-02-24. Leafs back in 2015 traded back & out of the 1st round #24 (Travis Konecny) to pick up 3rd #68 Martin Dzierkals, and now dealt him for a 5th in return, while eating $1.1 mil cap in retention. Instead of using that free cap space of $1.1 mil to help the Leafs in the playoffs resulting in Lost in play-in round to Columbus in 2020.

Matt Murray - Inter-divisional contract dump with retention and draft picks for a goalie that only played in 20 games, while missing 38 to injury coming off an Ottawa career with 3.34 GAA and .899 sv%, with a combined GSAx of -12.7 in 47 games with Sens, that saw him win only 15 games these past 2 seasons. Toronto playoff results in 2023 TBD.

So far all ex-Soo goalie connections have resulted in Lost in round #1 X 3 and gambling on a high risk reclamation contract dump to prevent Lost in round #1 in 2023, but that is still TBD at present. I also have Dubas batting 100% but I'm counting only the strike-outs so far.

PS. I believe Chicago taking on Mrazek contract dump this year to help out Toronto, was likely payback in part for that earlier 3-way deal that helped Hawks with cap space assistance when they needed it, Leafs needed the $3.8 mil from Mrazek to afford to attempt the $$4,687,500 ex Soo Greyhound Matt Murray attempt. Would Matt Murray be a Leaf today if Chicago didn't make that trade at the draft?

Mess your 'view point' needs calibrated to remove the hate taint! LOL

All you did was try and put a spin on what I posted.

2 goods and a TBD of the 3 goalies from the Soo.

 

[Captain Crunch]

??


He might have been shopping as he still plays professionally in Omsk in the KHL.

Did you not say this:

Leaf Fans said:
We have a 2 time Cup winner and a 2015 first round pick as a backup in net.

And I replied don’t they come with huge question marks.

 

[Apex Predator]

I wonder if all the people arguing with each other are just the same 2 people but with multiple profiles?

 

[Tarmore]

I wonder if all the people arguing with each other are just the same 2 people but with multiple profiles?

I often wonder how many of them are.

I don't think all but a lot of em (more than one is a lot for the record)

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

2 of Lou's first moves on the Island were to trade for Martin and sign Komarov. This is not something isolated to the Leafs. You tend to trust what you know.

Ya if you know what you have in the player and the person, I see nothing wrong with going for former players who played for you as long as they can perform. Sandin, Bunting, Muzzin and Campbell have all been good to great acquisitions, so I dont get what peoples gripe is with it.

Some of the other acquisitions, there isn't even much of a connection to Dubas. Ritchie was barely even a greyhound and he played for them the year after being hired by the Leafs. Simmonds and Thornton were in the Soo long before Dubas was even GM there. Those 3 plus Clifford were obviously brought in to fill certain roles because of their play style and came cheap and I highly doubt it was because they are Soo alumini. I do see how it's getting weird with the number of former Soo players though.

We will have to wait and see on Murray. My guess is that as long as he stays healthy, he will have a bounce back season.

Mess bringing up Lehner has to be the biggest reach I have ever seen on this board. Up there with thinking if Lou were GM, the Habs colors wouldn't have been lit up on the CN Tower.

 

[egd27]

2 of Lou's first moves on the Island were to trade for Martin and sign Komarov. This is not something isolated to the Leafs. You tend to trust what you know.

So it's acceptable for Dubas to use the same approach as old, incompetent Lou?

 

[LeafChief]

Not a huge fan of this trade but excited to see where this goes. He has shown in the past that he can play really good hockey. He's still at the age where he's not over the hill. Excited to see how this plays out. Hopefully he has a strong camp.

 

[Mess]

Mess, why don't you make another attempt at using GSAA (oops, used cumulative despite GP gap!) to prove why Murray sucks again? I am having a bad day and could use a laugh.

OK .. Here are the cumulative stats you requested on Murray past 3 years. You won't be laughing , but rather crying

Stats pulled straight from NHL.com and Moneypuck.com.

** Matt Murray is tied for the 3rd worst SV% in the NHL @ .899 sv% past 3 seasons.

** Matt Murray ranks #7 worst in Goals Against Average @ 3.06 past 3 seasons.

** Matt Murray's cumulative last 3 year "Goals Saved Above Expected" = - 33.2 (which includes his worst GSAx season being with recent Cup winning Pens).

Which validates this tweet



Dubas is a firm believer in the large sample size.

So even though Murray has been a sub-.900 goalie over the past three seasons, he’s a playoff performer with a .911 career saves rate.

Not going to find a bigger reclamation high risk project than Matt Murray !!!!

 

[Gary Nylund]

OK .. Here are the cumulative stats you requested on Murray past 3 years. You won't be laughing , but rather crying

Stats pulled straight from NHL.com and Moneypuck.com.

View attachment 582631

** Matt Murray is tied for the 3rd worst SV% in the NHL @ .899 sv% past 3 seasons.

View attachment 582646

** Matt Murray ranks #7 worst in Goals Against Average @ 3.06 past 3 seasons.

View attachment 582647

** Matt Murray's cumulative last 3 year "Goals Saved Above Expected" = - 33.2 (which includes his worst season being with Pens).

Which validates this tweet



Dubas is a firm believer in the large sample size.

So even though Murray has been a sub-.900 goalie over the past three seasons, he’s a playoff performer with a .911 career saves rate.

Since you posted the same numbers in the Samsonov thread, I will ask you the same question here that I asked there:

I'm going to take a wild guess here and say you took the last 3 years because if you took the last 1/2/4/5 years, the numbers for Murray/Samsonov would look better and thus wouldn't suit your agenda. Am I wrong?

Mods - if people are going to be posting the same thing in separate threads, then might be an idea to merge the two threads into a "Murray/Samsonov" thread.

 

[ACC1224]

OK .. Here are the cumulative stats you requested on Murray past 3 years. You won't be laughing , but rather crying

Stats pulled straight from NHL.com and Moneypuck.com.

View attachment 582631

** Matt Murray is tied for the 3rd worst SV% in the NHL @ .899 sv% past 3 seasons.

View attachment 582646

** Matt Murray ranks #7 worst in Goals Against Average @ 3.06 past 3 seasons.

View attachment 582647

** Matt Murray's cumulative last 3 year "Goals Saved Above Expected" = - 33.2 (which includes his worst GSAx season being with recent Cup winning Pens).

Which validates this tweet



Dubas is a firm believer in the large sample size.

So even though Murray has been a sub-.900 goalie over the past three seasons, he’s a playoff performer with a .911 career saves rate.

Interesting, hard to be optimistic after looking at that. Looks like the new Goalie coach has his work cut out for him.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

OK .. Here are the cumulative stats you requested on Murray past 3 years. You won't be laughing , but rather crying

Stats pulled straight from NHL.com and Moneypuck.com.

View attachment 582631

** Matt Murray is tied for the 3rd worst SV% in the NHL @ .899 sv% past 3 seasons.

View attachment 582646

** Matt Murray ranks #7 worst in Goals Against Average @ 3.06 past 3 seasons.

View attachment 582647

** Matt Murray's cumulative last 3 year "Goals Saved Above Expected" = - 33.2 (which includes his worst GSAx season being with recent Cup winning Pens).

Which validates this tweet



Dubas is a firm believer in the large sample size.

So even though Murray has been a sub-.900 goalie over the past three seasons, he’s a playoff performer with a .911 career saves rate.

Not going to find a bigger reclamation high risk project than Matt Murray !!!!

Dang, sure looks like he is improving? No? Or do we no longer weight the most recent results?

 

[Sypher04]

We badly need new discussions topics.
Been nothing but beating a dead horse in the same dozen threads for 2 months

 

[Nineteen67]

We badly need new discussions topics.
Been nothing but beating a dead horse in the same dozen threads for 2 months

The players report for physicals on Sept 22 and ex. games begin on the 24th.

 

[Sypher04]

The players report for physicals on Sept 22 and ex. games begin on the 24th.

Thank god