As an Ottawa Senators fan, I've followed Erik Karlsson's entire career fairly closely. And I think he's one of the hardest players to rate in a historical context.
Everyone knows Karlsson is nothing special defensively, but when you look at the goals-against results for Karlsson's 7 season peak (2011-12 through 2017-18), Karlsson has been on the ice for 0.1 goals/game more than anyone else, and 0.2 goals/game more than the average #1 defenceman.
Yes, he makes up for that by being on the ice for more goals for than anyone else...but we already knew he was a great offensive defenceman, and it's pretty clear he was giving back a lot of that value on the other end. His GF/GA ratio on the ice is better than his off-ice ratio (1.04 to 0.95), but it's less impressive than several of his contemporaries.
2011-12 through 2017-18.
Player | GP | ESGF | ESGA | ESGF/G | ESGA/G | R-ON | R-OFF |
Erik Karlsson | 492 | 524 | 508 | 1.06 | 1.03 | 1.04 | 0.95 |
Justin Faulk | 477 | 348 | 454 | 0.73 | 0.95 | 0.77 | 0.86 |
Tyson Barrie | 406 | 331 | 373 | 0.81 | 0.92 | 0.89 | 0.87 |
Dustin Byfuglien | 408 | 409 | 375 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 1.09 | 1.00 |
Alex Goligoski | 522 | 453 | 462 | 0.87 | 0.89 | 0.99 | 0.93 |
Jeff Petry | 492 | 329 | 421 | 0.67 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.91 |
Justin Schultz | 407 | 339 | 346 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.97 | 0.82 |
Duncan Keith | 509 | 503 | 430 | 0.99 | 0.85 | 1.18 | 1.14 |
Roman Josi | 481 | 433 | 404 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 1.07 | 1.05 |
Erik Johnson | 412 | 315 | 346 | 0.76 | 0.84 | 0.91 | 0.94 |
Victor Hedman | 473 | 462 | 396 | 0.98 | 0.84 | 1.16 | 1.06 |
Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 528 | 389 | 438 | 0.74 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.83 |
Ryan Suter | 528 | 516 | 428 | 0.98 | 0.81 | 1.21 | 1.02 |
Mark Giordano | 478 | 418 | 387 | 0.87 | 0.81 | 1.08 | 0.79 |
Keith Yandle | 542 | 410 | 436 | 0.76 | 0.81 | 0.94 | 0.97 |
Jack Johnson | 506 | 364 | 402 | 0.72 | 0.80 | 0.90 | 1.10 |
Brent Burns | 478 | 411 | 378 | 0.86 | 0.79 | 1.09 | 1.05 |
Alex Pietrangelo | 521 | 464 | 408 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 1.14 | 1.18 |
P.K. Subban | 503 | 457 | 393 | 0.91 | 0.78 | 1.16 | 1.02 |
Shea Weber | 465 | 394 | 356 | 0.85 | 0.76 | 1.11 | 0.96 |
Cam Fowler | 485 | 361 | 370 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.98 | 1.19 |
John Carlson | 504 | 416 | 383 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 1.09 | 1.19 |
Jay Bouwmeester | 471 | 360 | 355 | 0.76 | 0.75 | 1.01 | 1.06 |
Brent Seabrook | 530 | 454 | 394 | 0.86 | 0.74 | 1.16 | 1.15 |
Drew Doughty | 531 | 465 | 390 | 0.88 | 0.73 | 1.19 | 1.07 |
Zdeno Chara | 495 | 454 | 358 | 0.92 | 0.72 | 1.27 | 1.15 |
Ryan McDonagh | 490 | 462 | 348 | 0.94 | 0.71 | 1.33 | 1.07 |
Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 504 | 418 | 348 | 0.83 | 0.69 | 1.21 | 0.98 |
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R-ON is the GF/GA ratio while the players is on the ice, R-OFF is the team's GF/GA ratio while the player is off the ice.
The frustrating thing is that Karlsson has shown flashes of excellent defensive play, but when he's not playing well he might be the worst defensive player in the league.
Here are some of my notes on his year by year performance.
Year | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | ESGF | ESGA | ESGF/G | ESGA/G | R-ON | R-OFF | Voting |
2010 | OTT | 60 | 5 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 38 | 42 | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.91 | 0.93 | |
2011 | OTT | 75 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -30 | 46 | 74 | 0.61 | 0.99 | 0.62 | 0.78 | |
2012 | OTT | 81 | 19 | 59 | 78 | 16 | 95 | 74 | 1.18 | 0.92 | 1.28 | 0.92 | Norris-1 |
2013 | OTT | 17 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 9 | 0.94 | 0.52 | 1.80 | 0.98 | Norris-18 |
2014 | OTT | 82 | 20 | 54 | 74 | -15 | 80 | 89 | 0.98 | 1.09 | 0.90 | 0.96 | Norris-7 |
2015 | OTT | 82 | 21 | 45 | 66 | 7 | 89 | 76 | 1.09 | 0.93 | 1.17 | 1.12 | Norris-1 |
2016 | OTT | 82 | 16 | 66 | 82 | -2 | 95 | 98 | 1.16 | 1.20 | 0.97 | 1.02 | Norris-2 |
2017 | OTT | 77 | 17 | 54 | 71 | 10 | 73 | 63 | 0.95 | 0.82 | 1.16 | 0.88 | Norris-2 |
2018 | OTT | 71 | 9 | 53 | 62 | -25 | 75 | 97 | 1.05 | 1.37 | 0.76 | 0.80 | Norris-12 |
2019 | SJS | 53 | 3 | 42 | 45 | 6 | 65 | 57 | 1.22 | 1.07 | 1.15 | 1.07 | Norris-15 |
2020 | SJS | 56 | 6 | 34 | 40 | -15 | 47 | 63 | 0.84 | 1.13 | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
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2010 and 2011 weren't really historically significant seasons
2011-12: Karlsson's breakout year. He was a superb offensive player this season. Just incredible acceleration with the puck. He'd get the puck on his stick and exit the zone like he was shot out of a cannon, often taking angles or lanes that nobody else thanks to his acceleration, speed, and skill. When Karlsson and three forwards were flying through the neutral zone and crossing the blueline, it was a thing of beauty. Like Magic Johnson and the Showtime Lakers on the fast break. Karlsson led the Sens turnaround from finishing 29th in GF the year before to finishing 4th in GF. A lot of average forwards saw their scoring totals boosted by Karlsson that year. Karlsson also had a special connection with Jason Spezza. Spezza in 2011-12 was maybe the best forward Karlsson ever played with, and they both saw the game at a high level and made some great plays together. Makes you wonder what Karlsson could have done playing with more skilled players...he also looked incredible at the 2014 Olympics playing with lots of skill.
That being said, if I had a vote for the Norris I would have placed Karlsson second or third, with Zdeno Chara above him (I didn't see enough of Weber). It was a very close 3 man race that year with Karlsson, Chara, and Weber. And for all Karlsson did offensively, he gave back a lot defensively. Some of it was due to his aggressive positioning in the offensive zone, skating below the circles on a rush or pinching up the wall in the zone. While he always skated back hard to get back into the play, I remember several goals against where he was engaging his man from the side or behind after skating back instead of being in position. And some of it was because he was ineffective in his own zone against an opponent who had established position. I remember several goals against where the opponent scored from in front after Karlsson just let him have position. Karlsson could and did make very good defensive plays in open ice and where the opponent didn't have clear possession, because he could attack and break up the play...but when he had to wait for the opponent and react, he was very very bad defensively.
2012-13: Karlsson played 14 games this year before his Achilles was sliced. In those 14 games he looked like he had gone to another level. His offence and his incredible skating was still there, and now he was more of a two-way player, flowing from attack to defence to attack more smoothly. He wasn't getting caught so far up the ice, and he was positioning himself better on defence, reacting better, and was decisively closing to the puck more often.
I know it was only 14 games. And it was a weird lockout season, where Karlsson was probably better prepared and conditioned than some other players. But in some ways that was the best version of Karlsson I ever saw. Not as smart as he would be later, but he still had the incredible skating. What a tragedy that injury was.
2013-14: Karlsson looked off all season, especially defensively. He got some Norris votes but in my opinion they were entirely stat votes and he didn't really deserve any. He gave back just as much on defence as he contributed on offence. His gap control was poor, his pivots were shaky, and he didn't have the confidence to engage defensively that he had the previous season. To be fair to him, he was really still recovering from the Achilles injury and I think all his defensive issues were caused by that -- he was still good on offence when he could dictate the play, but he was not there when he had to react defensively.
As shaky as his NHL season was, Karlsson was incredible at the 2014 Olympics. He didn't have to do as much defensively, he could use his stick more instead of his body on the big ice, and his skill and hockey IQ really popped on the screen while playing with other great players. After seeing this, you really have to wonder what Karlsson could have done with more skilled players.
2014-15: This year was a tale of two half-seasons for Karlsson. He really didn't play well through December, looking awful defensively. But on the other hand, his regular partner Marc Methot was injured and he was playing 27 minutes a game with a rotating series of borderline NHLers on his left side. Once Methot returned, Karlsson was lights out in 2015. Easily the best defenceman in the league and maybe the best player in the league down the stretch, and he was playing well defensively once again, although he was still a gambler at times.
Did Karlsson deserve this Norris? He edged out Drew Doughty and PK Subban for the trophy. Honestly I would understand voting for someone else, considering how bad Karlsson was in the first 30 games..but I don't think any other defencemen had a standout year, and Karlsson really was that good in the second half of the season. Call it a weak Norris win.
2015-16: Karlsson had his highest scoring season, with 82 points. On the other hand, he was on the ice for 98 even strength goals against, his highest total ever. I don't remember him being particularly bad defensively this year, but I do remember he played a ton of ice time, including a fair bit of time without his regular partner Methot. And this version of Karlsson was still pinching up to create offence at times and could be burned the other way. Frankly he was probably over-stretched this season, playing too many minutes on a marginal team thanks to a coach who was in over his head and trying to save his job. He finished second in Norris voting to Drew Doughty. I'm OK with that.
2016-17: Karlsson changed his style of play this season to play more conservatively and fit into new coach Guy Boucher's system. He wasn't pinching up ice as much. Some fans were concerned because his scoring numbers and his shot-based analytics numbers were down for much of the season -- but in my opinion that was because Karlsson was learning how to play within the game and the team. His 5-on-5 on-ice save percentage was the highest of his career at 0.927, and I think that was a direct result of him playing within the team and not taking himself out of position. His scoring numbers and analytics picked up in the last couple of months as he became more comfortable impacting the game with his high skill and IQ without skating all over the place. He was really good on the road that year, and I think he broke the standard game plan that coaches around the league had been using against him.
Then he had that incredible playoffs run. The Sens had other players playing well of course, but Karlsson was the driver. He was involved in so many of the goals, he was terrific defensively. He was playing hurt too. In the past he had struggled when he wasn't healthy, but now it almost disciplined him and forced him to stay in position, letting him control the game with his hands and his head. This was the best version of Erik Karlsson we ever saw, and the best season we ever saw from him. I honestly thought the sky was the limit for him after seeing how he learned to play a more mature game this season. I still don't really know what happened.
2017-18: Karlsson just didn't seem right when he came back this year. It was strange that he could play on a broken foot so well in the 2017 playoffs but now he looked so off in the fall of 2017. He also really missed the departed Marc Methot, as he had to cover for a series of marginal NHLers cycling through his left side, including Johnny Oduya, Freddy Claesson, and Mark Borowiecki. All too often he was hung out to dry with the left defenceman stepping up in Guy Boucher's 1-3-1 and whiffing on the play. His numbers improved after the all-star break, with 31 points in 29 games and only a -1. Overall this was an absolutely miserable defensive season for him, showing that he needs support defensively -- he's not the kind of player who can elevate marginal NHLers on defence.
I don't have much to say about him after he was traded to the Sharks.