Top-100 Hockey Players of All-Time - Round 2, Vote 5

bobholly39

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four or five Conn Smythe-worthy runs? Kinda fast and loose with the Conn Smythe-worthy runs.

Oh definitely - but i still think there's a LOT of value in counting such runs. how would I define such a run? One loose way could be:

"When the cup is won - that player is a among those with a decent chance at the smythe"
Maybe followed up with an asterisk that includes "if another player that year had an arguably top 10 playoff run of all time this playoff season - maybe consider the first statement without this player".

I think such runs add a ton of value to a player's playoff resumes.

Actual Conn Smythes count too. And arguably top runs of all time count even more. But conn smythe worthy runs to me are extremely valuable.
 
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ContrarianGoaltender

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Fantastic analysis. I believe a similar conclusion was drawn a few years ago regarding Bergeron’s 2013 playoffs and Messier’s 1984 playoffs which saw a similar role to that of Clarke’s. In the latter example, Messier only scored 26 points, but had 46% of those points come specifically when the Oilers were trailing. This despite the Oilers being a +38 goal differential team in those playoffs.

Absolutely for Messier, I was going to post a follow-up about him too because Gretzky/Messier is another pairing where one guy always had his foot to the floor offensively while the other guy very obviously changed his scoring rates based on game situation. For example, here are some Gretzky/Messier playoff splits from 1981-87 I have from the HSP:

Edmonton Playoff Scoring, 1981-87:

First two periods:
Gretzky: 46 goals, 92 assists, 138 points
Messier: 32 goals, 38 assists, 70 points

Third period and OT:
Gretzky: 19 goals, 44 assists, 63 points
Messier: 22 goals, 25 assists, 47 points

Third periods starting with a score differential of 1 or less:
Gretzky: 10 goals, 20 assists, 30 points
Messier: 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points

Third periods starting with a score differential of 3+*:
Gretzky: 4 goals, 15 assists, 19 points
Messier: 5 goals, 2 assists, 7 points

(*-The Oilers rarely trailed by 3+, so this is more or less each players' respective scoring with the Oilers well in front)

It makes no intuitive sense to say that when your team was down by a goal late in a playoff game, you'd rather have Bobby Clarke on the ice than Phil Esposito, or you'd rather have Mark Messier on the ice than Wayne Gretzky, and while I don't think either of those statements are exactly true (Clarke over Esposito is the one that is closer to being actually arguable), they're both surprisingly close even though that would seem like utter craziness to suggest if you based everything on overall scoring numbers.

With Messier, I think there's also some evidence that he picked his spots in the regular season as well. For example, I observed a while back that Edmonton Oiler goalies tended to have worse save percentages in the latter part of the regular season than they did at the start, and theorized it was probably because the skaters stopped caring about trying to play defence once the division title was sewn up and they were doing nothing more than focusing on their personal stats and waiting for the playoffs. But I'm not sure Messier was all that worried about his personal stats. There are two interesting patterns I noticed that kind of suggest that (again in comparison to someone like Gretzky who always showed up for work and got his points), Messier very likely wasn't trying as hard in some games as others.

From 1985-1994, i.e. between when the Oilers won their first Cup and when the Rangers ended their drought, Messier has an interesting pattern of having his scoring drop off right at the end of the regular season, strongly suggesting that he was done with all this regular season nonsense and just wanted the real games to start. In his last six games in each regular season, Messier scored just 48 points in 60 games and was a -3. That's an incredible dropoff for a guy who had a 1.31 PPG and was +167 in 706 GP over that stretch. Normalized to an 80 game schedule, this is what it looks like:

Messier Scoring Results (Normalized to an 80 Game Schedule):

GAPts+/-
Main part of season367210921
Last 6 games214364-4
Playoffs396810728
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There's also an interesting split between Gretzky and Messier when it concerns non-Conference games from 1988-1994. Gretzky scored at pretty much exactly the same rate whether he was playing against his own Conference or the opposite one. Mark Messier, however, did not.

1988-91 (Normalized to 80 Game Schedule):

GPPts vs CampbellPts vs Wales
Gretzky80152153
Messier80121102
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1992-94 (Normalized to 80 Game Schedule):

GPPts vs CampbellPts vs Wales
Gretzky80126128
Messier8091101
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

As an Oiler Messier scored higher against the Campbell, but as a Ranger he scored higher against the Wales. The sample size on this isn't huge but it's big enough for me to think that there is likely something to it. I don't know whether Messier figured he didn't need to try as hard in some games, or (my preferred theory) he partied extra hard on the road the night before games against non-Conference opposition, but it's just another example of how some players are robots while other players aren't. I personally find it pretty difficult to blame players for not trying their hardest when they had little incentive to do so, and no era of the NHL had less incentive for players to try in the regular season than the divisional era with 16/21 teams making the playoffs.

If you have a pure accomplishments focus and you don't really care about how good players were, then maybe none of this matters, because you could argue that every player should be like Wayne Gretzky and give it his all for 60 minutes in all 82 games whether it is 1-1 or 10-1, and if they don't then it's their own fault. But if you are like me and you are primarily interested in how good the players actually were and how much they actually helped their teams win, then context matters since things like points are only a proxy for evaluating talent. There are plenty of reasons why a player's numbers might not exactly reflect their actual playing ability, both positively or negatively, and if you care about their ability then the fact that two-way centers had very situational scoring is crucial. Also, the indication that guys like Messier or Doug Harvey or (other guys that will come up later on) didn't necessarily show up for every regular season game in their entire careers is information that would actually cause you to rate them more highly than otherwise, since it suggests that their playoff performances were more representative of their actual talent than their regular season ones.
 

wetcoast

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The first three years after his six year peak was still 90 - plus point to over a 100 points. Not much of a decline for someone in his 30's in those days. I've seen a lot more creative number crunching done for other players, while Lafleur detractors dismiss anything after 1980. So silly.

No one is dismissing Lafleur after 80.

He is simply being compared to players who had more significant primes in both the regular season and playoffs and no he doesn't fare well in that regard.

As for context throwing put 20 goal seasons in the 80s......
 

MXD

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For the record, from 1992 to 1994, here is Mark Messier's record against some really weak teams that were in no way fighting with the Rangers in any shape or form (remember, there was no cross-division matchups until the Conference Finals, so playing these weak teams was no different than playing against an out-of-conference team)

1992 vs. QUE : 3 - 0 - 6 - 6
1993 vs. OTT : 3 - 2 - 4 - 6
1993 vs. HAR : 3 - 1 - 2 - 3
1994 vs. OTT : 4 - 2 - 3 - 5
1994 vs. HAR : 4 - 2 - 4 - 6

EDIT : HEh. I forgot the cross-divisionnal nonsense started in 1994, but it's not like the Whalers were anywhere close (or were even suspected to make it in the very strong NorthEast division)
 
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wetcoast

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No "what-ifs" that he was the best player in the world.

He was in the mix for several seasons and if Orr hadn't been Injured...see how the what if game works?

Also Potvin has a case for best player over that time period as well.
 

DannyGallivan

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He was in the mix for several seasons and if Orr hadn't been Injured...see how the what if game works?

Also Potvin has a case for best player over that time period as well.
There may be some (not me though) who would dispute Potvin as even the best Islander during their dynasty.
 
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DannyGallivan

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Absolutely for Messier, I was going to post a follow-up about him too because Gretzky/Messier is another pairing where one guy always had his foot to the floor offensively while the other guy very obviously changed his scoring rates based on game situation. For example, here are some Gretzky/Messier playoff splits from 1981-87 I have from the HSP:

Edmonton Playoff Scoring, 1981-87:

First two periods:
Gretzky: 46 goals, 92 assists, 138 points
Messier: 32 goals, 38 assists, 70 points

Third period and OT:
Gretzky: 19 goals, 44 assists, 63 points
Messier: 22 goals, 25 assists, 47 points

Third periods starting with a score differential of 1 or less:
Gretzky: 10 goals, 20 assists, 30 points
Messier: 9 goals, 17 assists, 26 points

Third periods starting with a score differential of 3+*:
Gretzky: 4 goals, 15 assists, 19 points
Messier: 5 goals, 2 assists, 7 points

(*-The Oilers rarely trailed by 3+, so this is more or less each players' respective scoring with the Oilers well in front)

It makes no intuitive sense to say that when your team was down by a goal late in a playoff game, you'd rather have Bobby Clarke on the ice than Phil Esposito, or you'd rather have Mark Messier on the ice than Wayne Gretzky, and while I don't think either of those statements are exactly true (Clarke over Esposito is the one that is closer to being actually arguable), they're both surprisingly close even though that would seem like utter craziness to suggest if you based everything on overall scoring numbers.

With Messier, I think there's also some evidence that he picked his spots in the regular season as well. For example, I observed a while back that Edmonton Oiler goalies tended to have worse save percentages in the latter part of the regular season than they did at the start, and theorized it was probably because the skaters stopped caring about trying to play defence once the division title was sewn up and they were doing nothing more than focusing on their personal stats and waiting for the playoffs. But I'm not sure Messier was all that worried about his personal stats. There are two interesting patterns I noticed that kind of suggest that (again in comparison to someone like Gretzky who always showed up for work and got his points), Messier very likely wasn't trying as hard in some games as others.

From 1985-1994, i.e. between when the Oilers won their first Cup and when the Rangers ended their drought, Messier has an interesting pattern of having his scoring drop off right at the end of the regular season, strongly suggesting that he was done with all this regular season nonsense and just wanted the real games to start. In his last six games in each regular season, Messier scored just 48 points in 60 games and was a -3. That's an incredible dropoff for a guy who had a 1.31 PPG and was +167 in 706 GP over that stretch. Normalized to an 80 game schedule, this is what it looks like:

Messier Scoring Results (Normalized to an 80 Game Schedule):

GAPts+/-
Main part of season367210921
Last 6 games214364-4
Playoffs396810728
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
There's also an interesting split between Gretzky and Messier when it concerns non-Conference games from 1988-1994. Gretzky scored at pretty much exactly the same rate whether he was playing against his own Conference or the opposite one. Mark Messier, however, did not.

1988-91 (Normalized to 80 Game Schedule):

GPPts vs CampbellPts vs Wales
Gretzky80152153
Messier80121102
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
1992-94 (Normalized to 80 Game Schedule):

GPPts vs CampbellPts vs Wales
Gretzky80126128
Messier8091101
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
As an Oiler Messier scored higher against the Campbell, but as a Ranger he scored higher against the Wales. The sample size on this isn't huge but it's big enough for me to think that there is likely something to it. I don't know whether Messier figured he didn't need to try as hard in some games, or (my preferred theory) he partied extra hard on the road the night before games against non-Conference opposition, but it's just another example of how some players are robots while other players aren't. I personally find it pretty difficult to blame players for not trying their hardest when they had little incentive to do so, and no era of the NHL had less incentive for players to try in the regular season than the divisional era with 16/21 teams making the playoffs.

If you have a pure accomplishments focus and you don't really care about how good players were, then maybe none of this matters, because you could argue that every player should be like Wayne Gretzky and give it his all for 60 minutes in all 82 games whether it is 1-1 or 10-1, and if they don't then it's their own fault. But if you are like me and you are primarily interested in how good the players actually were and how much they actually helped their teams win, then context matters since things like points are only a proxy for evaluating talent. There are plenty of reasons why a player's numbers might not exactly reflect their actual playing ability, both positively or negatively, and if you care about their ability then the fact that two-way centers had very situational scoring is crucial. Also, the indication that guys like Messier or Doug Harvey or (other guys that will come up later on) didn't necessarily show up for every regular season game in their entire careers is information that would actually cause you to rate them more highly than otherwise, since it suggests that their playoff performances were more representative of their actual talent than their regular season ones.
Question about Messier and Gretzky. How often did they share the ice? This goes back to my statement earlier that Gretzky would have faced the opposition's best checking line virtually all of the time, while Messier may have benefited by playing a different shift. I really don't know where to go to research line match-ups... this is just a suspicion I have.
 
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ted2019

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Spot on.

I know you're a big Clarke fan so i give you much respect for putting him near the bottom. Too early for him this round given the competition he's facing.

Sawchuk is NR'd for me. Nobody has really touched on him in depth which leads me to believe he'll be in the bottom few on most ballots. Which is correct.

I have Nighbor, Messier, Fetisov and Brodeur as my top 4. Not set on the their order quite yet but they're the ones I think should be moving on for sure.

Next tier would be Ovechkin, Hall, Mikita and probably Lafleur/Espo vying for the 2 spots ahead of Clarke/Sawchuk.

But obviously a fluid situation with most of these guys sans my locks and bottom 2.

Thanks. Even though I'm a huge Flyers/Clarke fan, I refuse to only point out his strengths, unlike a few posters here because there favorite players/teams/countrymen are up in a particular round. This is suppose to be a project of objectivity and it really hasn't gone that way in my eyes.
 

MXD

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Oct 27, 2005
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He was in the mix for several seasons and if Orr hadn't been Injured...see how the what if game works?

I don't even know why such points (like the above) are raised. Bobby Orr did, in fact, not really play during what has came to be known as Guy Lafleur's prime. Had Orr played, and let's presume he would've been the exact same player he was during his prime so as to not get lost more in conjecture than we already are, Orr would ALMOST CERTAINLY have been the better player.

... But, first of all, that changes absolutely nothing to the player Guy Lafleur was during his own prime/peak. And second, most importantly, why the fact Orr would've been better than Lafleur even matters at this point, and more importantly, why does Guy Lafleur, at this point in our project, is assessed according to a Bobby Orr standard that we aren't even certain ANYONE met at any point?
 

ImporterExporter

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Thanks. Even though I'm a huge Flyers/Clarke fan, I refuse to only point out his strengths, unlike a few posters here because there favorite players/teams/countrymen are up in a particular round. This is suppose to be a project of objectivity and it really hasn't gone that way in my eyes.

After looking at more info you and @ContrarianGoaltender put forth I'm definitely thinking/leaning about bumping Bobby up a few spots. Won't be in my top 4-5 but likely out of that 2nd to last spot. I think he has a good chance next round to be honest if enough people examine those in depth playoff studies.
 

Sentinel

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Off my phone now and will put up Mikita's 9 consecutive years in a row prime top 4 in scoring each season against Lafleur's 6 year peak/prime.

Those are finishes of 1,1,1,1,2,3,3,3,4 in 9 seasons.

That really should compare with Lafleur at 1,1,1,3,3,4 right?

Take out the identical seasons and we have Mikita with 1,2,3 advantage.

He also has a 10th year in 72-73 where he was 3rd in PPG with a very strong 57-27-53-80 line.

I happen to think that it's better than Lafleur with a 10th PPG season in 80-81.

Mikita was also 13th in points in 73-74 and in 15th in 74-75

Playoffs Lafleur has that 6 year peak, but let's look at Mikita's best 6 years and then the rest between them as well.

Mikita's 6 best consecutive year streak in the playoffs is 61-66 where his line is 57-22-37-59 good for 4th in points behind

Howe 66
Hull 66
Ullman 62
Mikta 59

Sure Lafleur's 6 year stretch is much better

Lafleur 110
Clarke 79
Potvin 77
Shutt 77
Lemaire 74

But outside of each players best 6 year consecutive stretch this is how they stack up

Lafleur in 73 overall games and Mikita in 98 games scored like this from best to worst:

Guy 8,5,3,3,2,1,1,1

Stan 20,18,12,11,10,7,4,4,3,1,1 and zero

This really brings Mikita closer to Lafleur.

The totality of Mikita just overwhelms Lafleur as he was a better 2 way player as well and his very long prime and significant number of seasons over Lafleur makes for a very overwhelming case IMO.

Frankly I'm very surprised Mikita hasn't already been selected.

I'm too tired to do the direct comparison with Messier right now but will just do the quick Coles not version.

Messier has 6 seasons as a top 10 scorer and 9 in PPG and they tend to tread closer to 10th than 1st to be sure.

Advantage to Lafleur for peak but Messiers prime is 15 years long as a very good scoring center bringing decent 2 way play and physicality as well.

It's the playoffs where Messier really stands out though.

Messier had 14 consecutive seasons in double digits in points in the playoffs.

I'll put that up over Guy and his 6 year peak 8 days a week.
What happens outside of their prime years is immaterial for the purposes of this conversation. The gap in playoffs in their prime is far bigger (favoring Lafleur) than the gap in RS's (favoring Mikita). Also, being the best player on a dynasty clearly supercedes being the second best player on a third best team of an era (in a six team league).

Messier's prime was longer than Lafleur's but not better. Double-digits in playoffs is hardly impressive in the highest scoring era of all time.

The only real advantages Mikita and Messier have on Lafleur is their defensive acumen (but nobody, not even Bowman, used Lafleur in a defensive role on a team with Gainey and the Big Three) and their longevity. But his much higher peak and better prime squarely offset these two flaws.
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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I'm not entirely sure Mikita was the 2nd best player on the Blackhawks. Glenn Hall definitely has a case there.

For example, the THN Top 100 rated the two of them back to back - Hall 16th, Mikita 17th: List of 100 greatest NHL players by The Hockey News - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I realize that list is littered with methodological problems, but the top 40-50 of the list does give an example of what the late 90s hockey establishment thought of players they saw play in the 50s-80s.
 

MXD

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I'm not entirely sure Mikita was the 2nd best player on the Blackhawks. Glenn Hall definitely has a case there.

For example, the THN Top 100 rated the two of them back to back - Hall 16th, Mikita 17th: List of 100 greatest NHL players by The Hockey News - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I realize that list is littered with methodological problems, but the top 40-50 of the list does give an example of what the late 90s hockey establishment thought of players they saw play in the 50s-80s.

I really, but really wondered why there was a Russian flag besides Mikita's name.
 

ImporterExporter

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I'm not entirely sure Mikita was the 2nd best player on the Blackhawks. Glenn Hall definitely has a case there.

For example, the THN Top 100 rated the two of them back to back - Hall 16th, Mikita 17th: List of 100 greatest NHL players by The Hockey News - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I realize that list is littered with methodological problems, but the top 40-50 of the list does give an example of what the late 90s hockey establishment thought of players they saw play in the 50s-80s.

Honestly the more I've looked at it, the more I agree you have a point. I really like Mikita but it's obviously clear Hull was numero uno on the Hawks and Hall's regular season resume is very strong, as is Mikita's truth be told. But I'm not sure anymore about the postseason. Neither are good (or better) but I might sneak Hall into the average to above average category.

Sort of a 2A o 2B placement for me.
 

wetcoast

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I don't even know why such points (like the above) are raised. Bobby Orr did, in fact, not really play during what has came to be known as Guy Lafleur's prime. Had Orr played, and let's presume he would've been the exact same player he was during his prime so as to not get lost more in conjecture than we already are, Orr would ALMOST CERTAINLY have been the better player.

... But, first of all, that changes absolutely nothing to the player Guy Lafleur was during his own prime/peak. And second, most importantly, why the fact Orr would've been better than Lafleur even matters at this point, and more importantly, why does Guy Lafleur, at this point in our project, is assessed according to a Bobby Orr standard that we aren't even certain ANYONE met at any point?

Fair enough, my point is that too much is being made of top player on a dynasty or best in the league.

It's all about context.
 

wetcoast

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What happens outside of their prime years is immaterial for the purposes of this conversation. The gap in playoffs in their prime is far bigger (favoring Lafleur) than the gap in RS's (favoring Mikita). Also, being the best player on a dynasty clearly supercedes being the second best player on a third best team of an era (in a six team league).

Messier's prime was longer than Lafleur's but not better. Double-digits in playoffs is hardly impressive in the highest scoring era of all time.

The only real advantages Mikita and Messier have on Lafleur is their defensive acumen (but nobody, not even Bowman, used Lafleur in a defensive role on a team with Gainey and the Big Three) and their longevity. But his much higher peak and better prime squarely offset these two flaws.

You really seem to be glossing over Mikita's peak which was 9 seasons.

He takes a hit in the playoffs as his best seasons weren't consecutive but part of that is team function.
 
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MXD

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It feels a bit odd for me to "defend" Guy Lafleur, considering I see him as clearly better than only two players available this round (for those who are keeping score, that's Esposito and Sawchuk), but I have something on my mind that I want to raise about his post-prime period.


We know that he was injured, which could explain a least part of his « fall ». But I wonder at which point, when describing him as a player with a short prime/peak with not much on each side of it (a characterization who has some known flaws as it pertains to his pre-prime period, all we all know) who was a one-way offensive forward with no defensive duties to speak of (which is probably not 100% accurate, either, but is at least grounded on something), we don’t end up penalizing him twice for his flaws.


For all we know, the Canadiens switched to a very defensive system following Bowman’s departure. I mean, they already had a great defensive system during an era where few teams had defensive systems, but the point is, they started to focus much more on defense when their former depth players like Mario Tremblay and Pierre Mondou were asked to play a bigger roles. So, basically, defense from everyone became really important throughout the lineup.


To me, it’s extremely reasonable to assume that Lafleur’s lack of experience/skill/willingness on the defensive side of the game is a big reason why his output went downhill past 1981. Along with the other reasons, like the car accident and just getting older.


My point is : by giving lots of weight to the fact that his prime/peak was not very long, and that he wasn’t much outside of it, are we just punishing him twice for the same issue (lack of skill/experience/willingness), to a certain extent?


Nothing of the above should be construed as a suggestion that Lafleur should be given a mulligan for the injury.
 
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overg

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Thanks. Even though I'm a huge Flyers/Clarke fan, I refuse to only point out his strengths, unlike a few posters here because there favorite players/teams/countrymen are up in a particular round. This is suppose to be a project of objectivity and it really hasn't gone that way in my eyes.

While I completely understand where you're coming from, I don't think advocating for your favorite players is in and of itself a bad thing. After all, fans are more likely to have seen the player a lot more than non-fans, and thus may very well have a better understanding of the player.

So long as you're doing your best to give an accurate portrayal of someone like Clarke's good points, and you're applying the same standard to him as to anyone else, I'd think any particular insights you might have could potentially be very useful. Just my thoughts on the matter.

*edit: I just realized you said you refused to *only* point out his strengths. So you really didn't need this pep talk at all. Sorry about that! I'll just leave this here in case anyone else feels like they should stay silent about their favorite players.
 
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bobholly39

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It feels a bit odd for me to "defend" Guy Lafleur, considering I see him as clearly better than only two players available this round (for those who are keeping score, that's Esposito and Sawchuk), but I have something on my mind that I want to raise about his post-prime period.


We know that he was injured, which could explain a least part of his « fall ». But I wonder at which point, when describing him as a player with a short prime/peak with not much on each side of it (a characterization who has some known flaws as it pertains to his pre-prime period, all we all know) who was a one-way offensive forward with no defensive duties to speak of (which is probably not 100% accurate, either, but is at least grounded on something), we don’t end up penalizing him twice for his flaws.


For all we know, the Canadiens switched to a very defensive system following Bowman’s departure. I mean, they already had a great defensive system during an era where few teams had defensive systems, but the point is, they started to focus much more on defense when their former depth players like Mario Tremblay and Pierre Mondou were asked to play a bigger roles. So, basically, defense from everyone became really important throughout the lineup.


To me, it’s extremely reasonable to assume that Lafleur’s lack of experience/skill/willingness on the defensive side of the game is a big reason why his output went downhill past 1981. Along with the other reasons, like the car accident and just getting older.


My point is : by giving lots of weight to the fact that his prime/peak was not very long, and that he wasn’t much outside of it, are we just punishing him twice for the same issue (lack of skill/experience/willingness), to a certain extent?


Nothing of the above should be construed as a suggestion that Lafleur should be given a mulligan for the injury.

Ironically - i came away from your post wanting to penalize Lafleur twice for his flaws - if what you say is true.

Because if what you're saying is true - it can and should be easily flipped to state - he only managed to do as good in those 6 year because of strength of team. On a weaker team (maybe a team who tried to play better defensively all around due to lack of stars/team strength as you're describing the Habs in 1981+) he wouldn't have done as well.
 

MXD

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Ironically - i came away from your post wanting to penalize Lafleur twice for his flaws - if what you say is true.

Because if what you're saying is true - it can and should be easily flipped to state - he only managed to do as good in those 6 year because of strength of team. On a weaker team (maybe a team who tried to play better defensively all around due to lack of stars/team strength as you're describing the Habs in 1981+) he wouldn't have done as well.

The Canadiens were playing great defense under Bowman though, so it wasn't a complete new trick.

(... And WTH was that font I used? I actually like it for normal characters, but it's awful for quotes)
 
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