Now we’re attempting to paint the following two things as equal:
1. Paying a draft pick for the right to sign a guy coming off of a career year to a full UFA value contract in both term and AAV.
2. Signing a free UFA to a higher AAV than desired, but lower than other teams offered, in order to keep the term down.
I also cannot help but laugh at all the things I’ve been told ultimately don’t move the needle, but now a perfectly good but unspectacular player in K’Andre Miller is one of the key talking points. Even as ridiculous as the Patrick complaints are, the JOB ones make the least sense to me. Taking big draft swings has a major downside. This is what it looks like. If you can’t accept that, then you don’t want them to take big swings. You just want your goose now. Boring.
Problem is incoherent strategy, taking big swings makes sense for a rebuilding team, because you're garnering talent.
If you think your team is competitive, then your focus should be on building depth for a PO run (efficient, low cost moves b/c if you're a good team you're probably cap strapped).
Hextall started to rebuild, then stopped for almost 3 years, then traded Schenn but signed JVR - cognitive dissonance much?
Fletcher tried to win now, but they lacked the horses, even a good GM would have struggled to keep that team afloat as key players aged out.
His biggest fault was he knew the gig was up and still doubled down, gambling on drawing to an inside straight to keep his job.
I think most teams don't have coherent strategies, and that comes from the top, ownership dictating its preferences.
Self-delusion is rampant in business and politics, why not sports?
And most teams tend to ignore aging curves, quick back of the hand rule, average starters decline by 30, good by 32, elite by 35.
So you want to avoid contracts that go 2-3 years past that point, better to sign a 32 year old veteran to a short-term deal where you know the recent track record than project a 27 year old starter to play well in six seasons.
In football, the rule is plan 3 years out (your roster will turnover in that time, due to most starter contracts being effectively 3-4 years), in the NHL and baseball, more like 5 years or more (takes that long to develop the next generation of players, most make it as starters at age 22-24).