Player Discussion Tocchet What Is/How He Doing?

[Curm]

I'm not necessarily a Tocchet fan, but coaching isn't the problem, at least right now.

 

[mathonwy]

I'm not necessarily a Tocchet fan, but coaching isn't the problem, at least right now.

Its a skill issue.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I haven't done the deep dive on this, but it seems to me that Berube is trying to replicate what Tocchet is doing here over in TO, and their shots for rates have dropped as well.

I'm also going to try to find their rush chance data and see how the compare.

Point being, if shot rates are suppressed for both, is it really fair to blame a lack of offense on execution alone?

 

[Bleach Clean]

Elite defensively in xGA (2nd), the dregs offensively in xGF (32nd). Last in rush chances.

Is the system allowing for both and the players aren't executing or moving their feet? Or, is the system predisposed to turtling and we're seeing that play out?

 

[RobertKron]

Elite defensively in xGA (2nd), the dregs offensively in xGF (32nd). Last in rush chances.

Is the system allowing for both and the players aren't executing or moving their feet? Or, is the system predisposed to turtling and we're seeing that play out?

The team has one defenseman.

 

[Bleach Clean]

The team has one defenseman.

The team is elite defensively due to more than just one defenseman.

 

[Breakers]

This team is a dumpster fire in the neutral zone
Controlled entries, transition data
It’s straight garbage

Cassidy is a god of the neutral zone, wanted him sooooooo bad as our coach but our owner doesn’t pay for coaches

I wonder when my boy David Carle is going to get an NHL interview
In the last 3 years:
2 national championships in the NCAA
Back to back WJC gold

 

[racerjoe]

The team is elite defensively due to more than just one defenseman.

It’s our transition play though… can’t score when you are constantly chasing the puck. Every time it’s glass and out cause those dman besides Hughes can’t. Ove the puck at all.

 

[Bleach Clean]

It’s our transition play though… can’t score when you are constantly chasing the puck. Every time it’s glass and out cause those dman besides Hughes can’t. Ove the puck at all.

The "one dman" comment implies everyone beyond Hughes is not NHL calibre. They are, just not in the way the team needs most.

 

[racerjoe]

The "one dman" comment implies everyone beyond Hughes is not NHL calibre. They are, just not in the way the team needs most.

It goes so much deeper…

It also stiffens in the offensive zone. A prime example was a play where Descharnais actually keeps the puck in the zone, but he is so bad, and u skilled with the puck, he retreats, and just uses his long reach to bat the puck in the zone, so while the puck stays in the zone, half a second later we lose possession, and now instead of either offensive control of the puck, we have two forwards turning to chase the puck, yet they are not in good positions and a counter comes quick.

In the offensive zone we are essentially still playing a man down, as our men can’t make a play and at best they ring it of the boards and our forwards are trying to pick up bad passes or pucks of the boards. It’s an offense killer.

Most of these guys should be a 6th dman at absolute best.

 

[Bleach Clean]

It goes so much deeper…

It also stiffens in the offensive zone. A prime example was a play where Descharnais actually keeps the puck in the zone, but he is so bad, and u skilled with the puck, he retreats, and just uses his long reach to bat the puck in the zone, so while the puck stays in the zone, half a second later we lose possession, and now instead of either offensive control of the puck, we have two forwards turning to chase the puck, yet they are not in good positions and a counter comes quick.

In the offensive zone we are essentially still playing a man down, as our men can’t make a play and at best they ring it of the boards and our forwards are trying to pick up bad passes or pucks of the boards. It’s an offense killer.

Most of these guys should be a 6th dman at absolute best.

RK's statement changed to "This team has one defenseman on offense.", would have been fine. That would align with a team that is terrible offensively and excellent defensively.

That means that it's a personnel issue that impairs execution. Not a lack of hustle. Fine, get him 1-2 dmen. If the xGF is still bottom half, then it has to be the system at fault.

 

[racerjoe]

RK's statement changed to "This team has one defenseman on offense.", would have been fine. That would align with a team that is terrible offensively and excellent defensively.

That means that it's a personnel issue that impairs execution. Not a lack of hustle. Fine, get him 1-2 dmen. If the xGF is still bottom half, then it has to be the system at fault.

But transition goes both ways… we can’t defend the blue line…

Even still not being able to exit the zone soundly means you will be just defending all game and gives zero margins. I have said it before and I will say it again, I would rather have a bunch of Branstrom s than tall trees. It’s not that Brannstrom is even good, but moving the puck out of your zone means you defend less. It makes your defense better without being actually good at defense. It also gives your offense. Chance to put points up which again gives you more margin for errors.

 

[RobertKron]

RK's statement changed to "This team has one defenseman on offense.", would have been fine. That would align with a team that is terrible offensively and excellent defensively.

That means that it's a personnel issue that impairs execution. Not a lack of hustle. Fine, get him 1-2 dmen. If the xGF is still bottom half, then it has to be the system at fault.

It was a reaction to your comment about Tocchet being predisposed to turtling. The team currently has one defenseman (or maybe one and a half if we're being kind) who can basically do anything at all other than try to be big and get in the way. Of course they're turtling.

 

[Bleach Clean]

But transition goes both ways… we can’t defend the blue line…

Even still not being able to exit the zone soundly means you will be just defending all game and gives zero margins.

Which I think it's by design.

Tocchet loads up on defensive Dmen. They can't move the puck out. Have to turtle most games. Despite that, they have an elite xGA. However, they also have the worst xGF.

Tocchet doesn't want to trade xGA (DFDs) to bolster xGF (Brannstrom).

This is Tocchet's predisposition to turtling: He knows that PMDs would cost him xGA, and so he devalues them. Instead, he continually loads DFDs and blames hustle and shooting accuracy for consistently horrid shot totals.

Even better Dmen (Zadorov and Cole) resulted in said same (record low shots for in the playoffs).

And so, is it really dman quality that is holding his system back, or is it the other way around? (or both)

 

[Curm]

The two best seasons Arizona had under Tocchet, 2018/19 and 2019/20, Keller then Schmaltz led them in scoring with 47 then 45 points. He's coaching this year's Canucks like those teams, despite having some top end talent. Can't blame him for the injuries or D construction, but the jury is out on the guy as far as I'm concerned.

 

[pitseleh]

Even better Dmen (Zadorov and Cole) resulted in said same (record low shots for in the playoffs).

Why use shots as the metric? The Canucks generated xGF at basically the same rate as the Oilers and the Predators in the playoffs. They were a top 5 team in GF at even strength in the regular season.

I just posted a longer post in the Hurricanes thread, but the problem this year isn’t falling back down to earth in terms of being able to beat their xGF, the problem is that their ability to generate xGF has fallen off a cliff and it’s directly tied to the defenders they have. Brannstrom would help but he’s not making much of a difference when he is in the lineup.

 

[Regal]

Elite defensively in xGA (2nd), the dregs offensively in xGF (32nd). Last in rush chances.

Is the system allowing for both and the players aren't executing or moving their feet? Or, is the system predisposed to turtling and we're seeing that play out?

I think the poor offense is a big part of why the defensive numbers are good. The games have been slog fests where neither team is generating much, but their constant blown leads suggest they’re not good enough defensively to actually lock it down if they manage to get some goals.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Why use shots as the metric? The Canucks generated xGF at basically the same rate as the Oilers and the Predators in the playoffs. They were a top 5 team in GF at even strength in the regular season.

I just posted a longer post in the Hurricanes thread, but the problem this year isn’t falling back down to earth in terms of being able to beat their xGF, the problem is that their ability to generate xGF has fallen off a cliff and it’s directly tied to the defenders they have. Brannstrom would help but he’s not making much of a difference when he is in the lineup.

On Moneypuck, VAN's xGF was ranked 16th in the regular season, with 168.13. EDM's was ranked 1st with 217.14. In the playoffs, VAN's xGF was 8th with 24.78 and EDM's was 2nd with 47.01.

I agree with you, the problem is that their ability to generate xGF has fallen off a cliff. Dead last from 16th last year. Anecdotally, this appears to be due to their DFDs. My contention is that this is still coaching design, and not Tocchet being dealt a bad hand. They must see that their xGA has jumped from 7th to 2nd and are OK forgoing marginal increases in xGF (Brannstrom) via personnel change.

We're all saying the cause is their defense. I'm saying this is the type of defense Tocchet will promote to keep the xGF/xGA disparity intact.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Here it is: 2 min mark Drance asks specifically about Brannstrom. Tocchet's response:

"We've been playing a lot of low event games. We're struggling to score We feel we have to stay in games that way."

"Puck moving defenseman... but you also have to defend. Brise is a good defender... We have Hughes now. The reward/risk part of it is something where we'd rather go this way."

So at the margins, it's the preference for the low event DFD over a higher event PMD. Different than saying the DFDs are all that they have. They are not forced to turtle, not all the way. The want to turtle.

 

[kanucks25]

On Moneypuck, VAN's xGF was ranked 16th in the regular season, with 168.13. EDM's was ranked 1st with 217.14. In the playoffs, VAN's xGF was 8th with 24.78 and EDM's was 2nd with 47.01.

I agree with you, the problem is that their ability to generate xGF has fallen off a cliff. Dead last from 16th last year. Anecdotally, this appears to be due to their DFDs. My contention is that this is still coaching design, and not Tocchet being dealt a bad hand. They must see that their xGA has jumped from 7th to 2nd and are OK forgoing marginal increases in xGF (Brannstrom) via personnel change.

We're all saying the cause is their defense. I'm saying this is the type of defense Tocchet will promote to keep the xGF/xGA disparity intact.

Here it is: 2 min mark Drance asks specifically about Brannstrom. Tocchet's response:

"We've been playing a lot of low event games. We're struggling to score We feel we have to stay in games that way."

"Puck moving defenseman... but you also have to defend. Brise is a good defender... We have Hughes now. The reward/risk part of it is something where we'd rather go this way."

So at the margins, it's the preference for the low event DFD over a higher event PMD. Different than saying the DFDs are all that they have. They are not forced to turtle, not all the way. The want to turtle.

I wouldn't necessarily equate low event hockey to turtling, they are two different things. Low event just means they rather both teams create less offence because they know they'll lose an arms race, not that they want to just go into a shell and have the other team come at them.

Which is exactly what they are doing, and all the boring ass games we've seen recently is the result. And that's where I fundamentally disagree with people who think the lack of chance and shot generation is a coaching strategy or issue, because to me it's mostly a personnel issue.

We're now playing like we did last season which led to some decent success, but IMO the drop in chance generation you're referring to is not due to a stifling system but instead due to lack of players that can simply make a play in the offensive zone.

Let me put it to you this way: if for the next game you had to bet $1,000 on each player on the Canucks you think would make a dynamic play / create scoring chances out of thin air, how many players would you bet on? My guess for most people would be just 1 if you don't want to be losing your money, and that's Hughes. And based on the season so far, you might be inclined to bet on Garland second if you had to pick someone else. So what does it say when your top forwards, two 100 point centers, can't even be counted on to consistently make plays in the offensive zone? What does it say when you're probably about halfway down the roster before you consider your two highest paid wingers?

Top players of their ilk aren't bound by the system, they have free reign to use their skill, IQ and anticipation to make plays the same way Hughes does. How many times have you seen the Montreal game from Miller this year? We get it like once every 5 games. How many games do you think "gee, Petey could really have had at least 3 points this game"? A handful? And we're already halfway through the season.

First half of the season last year, Petey and Miller were both on top of their respective games. The Oilers were like the only team that had a better 1-2 punch down the middle. Right now Miller is 54th in the league in P/G, Petey is 86th. Has Tocchet's system or his instructions to these two guys in particular really changed that much since then? I highly doubt it. There's just very little dynamism in top-6 right now on an individual basis.