Salary Cap: TML Salary Cap - Forward edition

[Willchel Marlynder]

Look at what our star players did when they were rfa's and had literally no leverage. We know what they're about. They are going to go for every single solitary penny they can get.

Let's be generous and say the cap ceiling is 86 mil on the "overlap" year. We could very feasibly have right near 60% of our cap on 4 forwards that year. Yikes. And that's with a Tavares in his mid 30's who almost assuredly will have taken a significant step back.

Things are slightly better with Tavares off the books the next season. But I don't see Matthews signing for less than 15 mil... and Marner seems to demand being paid as his equal. He didn't have the leverage to do so as a rfa, and eventually "settled" for a significant overpayment in relation to direct comparables. Nylander could get more than 10 on the open market, so he'll demand that. Let's say 10.5

Right now we're struggling like hell with FOUR forwards taking up around half the cap. But in a couple of years it will be THREE forwards taking up half the cap.

It's not sustainable. No other team is built this way. No other team loses in such humiliating fashion in the first round EVERY season.

It's a disaster. It's a travesty. It's reprehensible.

I'm sorry, but it makes more sense to trade one of them now while we can get something out of it. We'll have to build our team around TWO superstar forwards. Oh, the horror. Most teams don't even have one.

If the Leafs don't do something of note in the playoffs this year you won't have to worry about that scenario.

 

[Jojalu]

Interesting salary cap wrinkle the friedman mentioned...

"We know it's going to go up a million dollars at least, the question is: Could it go up three or four? ... The key thing I keep hearing is, it's close, it's going to be close. I had one executive who said to me he thinks it could come down to how many high-revenue teams makes the playoffs," said Friedman on Sunday."

SOOO if the Leafs can go on a deep playoff run, it would generate extra revenue and help the cap rise, and therefore allow mo' money for the guys we gotta re-sign.

Maybe a new slogan on the dressing room wall for extra motivation

I heard him say today they are debating whether it will go 1, 4, 5 over the next 3 years or 3, 3, 4.

 

[ToneDog]

Yeah he'd most definitely get that. Quite a few trams would happily pounce on an elite sniper franchise center. Rangers at the top of the list. Hell the Habs would jump at it too easily, I suspect about 15 other trams may as well.

I can see him wanting to go to NYR but how do they fit himin at $15m. Be happy to take a few players off their hands.

With the cap increasing, that is just how pro sports works.

The top guys will continiously jump over each other.

Right or wrong, that's how it has happened since FA started.

The NHLPA will push him to take more than Mack, so McDavid can then ask for more than Matthews. Then in a few years someone will jump over all 3 of them

No problem seeing 34 be the highest paid at $12.7-$13.5. Perhaps cap % is a better measure. With an 85m cap, $15m would be 17.6%. Too much for my blood, especially with Willy and Mitch licking their lips in the wings.

 

[Jojalu]

I can see him wanting to go to NYR but how do they fit himin at $15m. Be happy to take a few players off their hands.


No problem seeing 34 be the highest paid at $12.7-$13.5. Perhaps cap % is a better measure. With an 85m cap, $15m would be 17.6%. Too much for my blood, especially with Willy and Mitch licking their lips in the wings.

Agreed

 

[Menzinger]

Mr. Huberdeau says hi, waving his 10.5 in the air.

NOT gonna start comparing players (I'm sure that alone is a seperate 60-70 thread count lol) but there's some precedent. Gaudreau at 9.75. Again not comparing players at all but they're in the same stratosphere, Johnny better numbers willy 2 years yoounger.

Yeah Willy's gonna get paid.

Though also, just receby Fiala signed for 7.8mil and Flip Forsberg signed for 8.5. both guys are also in the Nylander comparison range too.

He's definitely heading for a nice pay bump, but I'm not so sure it's necessarily going to be as large as some think.

I expect his next deal will be in the cap % range of 10-11%

 

[Ashdown2]

Mr. Huberdeau says hi, waving his 10.5 in the air.

NOT gonna start comparing players (I'm sure that alone is a seperate 60-70 thread count lol) but there's some precedent. Gaudreau at 9.75. Again not comparing players at all but they're in the same stratosphere, Johnny better numbers willy 2 years yoounger.

Yeah Willy's gonna get paid.

so u think a comparible is 2 players who have posted 115 points in a season ?
riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight

Over the last 3+ seasons, in two more games but averaging 40 seconds less ice time per game, he has more goals, as many points, more ES goals and points, more PP goals, more OT goals, and more GWG than Tavares. Plus a better shooting %.

Over the last 3+ seasons, league wide, he's 13th in goals, 14th in PP goals, 17th in ES goals, and 19th in GWG.

cool story. ... now find a compariable to a player whos litterally never actually posted a ppg season.

 

[budzz]

so u think a comparible is 2 players who have posted 115 points in a season ?
riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight


cool story. ... now find a compariable to a player whos litterally never actually posted a ppg season.

Yeah not gonna deny their 115 point seasons at all. Good players, seasons a bit of an outlier for both but very good years for sure. As I stated in my post, not comparing them but they are in the same ballpark. Gaudreau has had a few 30+ goal season including a 40. Huberdeau 30 twice. Willy has had a 34 and a 31 and a good pace this year. 3 years younger than both. Not crazy.

 

[Thornbury]

Look at what our star players did when they were rfa's and had literally no leverage. We know what they're about. They are going to go for every single solitary penny they can get.

Let's be generous and say the cap ceiling is 86 mil on the "overlap" year. We could very feasibly have right near 60% of our cap on 4 forwards that year. Yikes. And that's with a Tavares in his mid 30's who almost assuredly will have taken a significant step back.

Things are slightly better with Tavares off the books the next season. But I don't see Matthews signing for less than 15 mil... and Marner seems to demand being paid as his equal. He didn't have the leverage to do so as a rfa, and eventually "settled" for a significant overpayment in relation to direct comparables. Nylander could get more than 10 on the open market, so he'll demand that. Let's say 10.5

Right now we're struggling like hell with FOUR forwards taking up around half the cap. But in a couple of years it will be THREE forwards taking up half the cap.

It's not sustainable. No other team is built this way. No other team loses in such humiliating fashion in the first round EVERY season.

It's a disaster. It's a travesty. It's reprehensible.

I'm sorry, but it makes more sense to trade one of them now while we can get something out of it. We'll have to build our team around TWO superstar forwards. Oh, the horror. Most teams don't even have one.

Hyperbole much?

 

[notDatsyuk]

cool story. ... now find a compariable to a player whos litterally never actually posted a ppg season.

Not sure about litterally, but he was literally one point shy of it last year.

If that's your only response, it's pretty lame.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Lol, what's become very clear is that a lot of people don't understand how contract valuation or comparables work.

 

[Larcos_Unal]

Interesting salary cap wrinkle the friedman mentioned...

"We know it's going to go up a million dollars at least, the question is: Could it go up three or four? ... The key thing I keep hearing is, it's close, it's going to be close. I had one executive who said to me he thinks it could come down to how many high-revenue teams makes the playoffs," said Friedman on Sunday."

SOOO if the Leafs can go on a deep playoff run, it would generate extra revenue and help the cap rise, and therefore allow mo' money for the guys we gotta re-sign.

Maybe a new slogan on the dressing room wall for extra motivation

I can see the MLSE merch already

 

[Ashdown2]

Not sure about litterally, but he was literally one point shy of it last year.

If that's your only response, it's pretty lame.

and yet im not wrong ..
clearly as Jamason stated , most of you guys have no idea contract valuation or comparables work.

 

[notDatsyuk]

and yet im not wrong ..
clearly as Jamason stated , most of you guys have no idea contract valuation or comparables work.

Neither am I. We're arguing semantics over one point in 81 games.

I didn't say the bolded, and it's not what Dekes said either.

He said "a lot of people don't understand", which I thoroughly agree with.

Your statement, "most of you guys have no idea", with the implied "but I do" I consider much less accurate.

 

[Canada4Gold]

The biggest squeeze year is when Matthews and Nylander need new contracts and Tavares is not off the books yet. Sandin, and Liljegren also need new deals that year, though Brodie coming off the books should help with that. It would be nice if we can resign Samsonov this offseason while keeping Murray on the books allows us to have Murray dropping off the year Matthews and Nylander become UFA while Samsonov's number remains level which would allow us to redistribute a chunk there to make things work.

 

[The Iceman]

Maybe JT takes the Spezza minimum deal, and hopes to evolve into a hockey exec upon retirement.
Pretty sure he doesnt need the $$$

 

[Thornbury]

The biggest squeeze year is when Matthews and Nylander need new contracts and Tavares is not off the books yet. Sandin, and Liljegren also need new deals that year, though Brodie coming off the books should help with that. It would be nice if we can resign Samsonov this offseason while keeping Murray on the books allows us to have Murray dropping off the year Matthews and Nylander become UFA while Samsonov's number remains level which would allow us to redistribute a chunk there to make things work.

Muzzin's $5.5 comes off the books that year too.

 

[Buds17]

Maybe JT takes the Spezza minimum deal, and hopes to evolve into a hockey exec upon retirement.
Pretty sure he doesnt need the $$$

The upside to that would be extremely obvious. The unfortunate downside might be that Spezza experienced quite the drop-off during the end of his time with Dallas (and Tavares would be doing that as a Leaf).

 

[The Iceman]

The upside to that would be extremely obvious. The unfortunate downside might be that Spezza experienced quite the drop-off during the end of his time with Dallas (and Tavares would hypothetically be doing that as a Leaf).

But I take Tavares and his high faceoff % and low contract value on PP1 and the 4th line any day of the week.

 

[Funk21]

Not sure how you can give 34 $15m after MacKinnon took 12.6 off a SC win and playing for $6+m on his last contract. If he wants $15m then I trade him, especially of he asks for it after another 1st round exit. You got players playing for half that money who are outperforming him. Sorry, pay him $15 and be prepared to pay Mitch $14m. No thanks but that is just me.

You hit the nail on the head. It’s time these players learn that getting paid isn’t the only thing about playing for this Team.

 

[Mess]

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Look at what our star players did when they were rfa's and had literally no leverage. We know what they're about. They are going to go for every single solitary penny they can get.

Let's be generous and say the cap ceiling is 86 mil on the "overlap" year. We could very feasibly have right near 60% of our cap on 4 forwards that year. Yikes. And that's with a Tavares in his mid 30's who almost assuredly will have taken a significant step back.

Things are slightly better with Tavares off the books the next season. But I don't see Matthews signing for less than 15 mil... and Marner seems to demand being paid as his equal. He didn't have the leverage to do so as a rfa, and eventually "settled" for a significant overpayment in relation to direct comparables. Nylander could get more than 10 on the open market, so he'll demand that. Let's say 10.5

Right now we're struggling like hell with FOUR forwards taking up around half the cap. But in a couple of years it will be THREE forwards taking up half the cap.

It's not sustainable. No other team is built this way. No other team loses in such humiliating fashion in the first round EVERY season.

It's a disaster. It's a travesty. It's reprehensible.

I'm sorry, but it makes more sense to trade one of them now while we can get something out of it. We'll have to build our team around TWO superstar forwards. Oh, the horror. Most teams don't even have one.

Have you tried Cannabis?

 

[MAB1]

I can see him wanting to go to NYR but how do they fit himin at $15m. Be happy to take a few players off their hands.


No problem seeing 34 be the highest paid at $12.7-$13.5. Perhaps cap % is a better measure. With an 85m cap, $15m would be 17.6%. Too much for my blood, especially with Willy and Mitch licking their lips in the wings.

If Matthews wants $15 million you pay him that and if it makes signing Marner and Nylander difficult, you move Rielly, not that hard. The big 3 are more valuable to the team's success than anyone else on the roster.