Salary Cap: TML Salary Cap - Forward edition

[Dekes For Days]

It'll depend more on how close he's compared to Matthews and Marner than it will someone from another team.

No it won't. He's not in the Matthews/Marner tier, and they won't have their UFA contracts yet to compare against anyway. Comparables are usually from other teams.

 

[Sypher04]

That could be a problem. Bruins have more cap flexibility than the Leafs and can overpay. We do not have that luxury so no way can we pay Willie close to Pasta, not to mention Pasta has overperformed his last contract. Willie underperformed the first two year of his IMO.

Nylander in no way underperformed year two of his current deal. The first year, no question. Either way, not sure in 2 years time almost when that deal is up that what he did 5 years ago will be considered overly relevant

 

[Apex Predator]

salary cap only projected to go up 1 million. The big jump isn’t going to happen till after our players contract ends.

 

[ToneDog]

Nylander in no way underperformed year two of his current deal. The first year, no question. Either way, not sure in 2 years time almost when that deal is up that what he did 5 years ago will be considered overly relevant

17g and 25a in 51 games at home. Debatable and why I added IMO but no debating he has put up better numbers each year of the contract. This version of 88 seldom takes nights off. Not true the first two years IMO.

 

[Thornbury]

salary cap only projected to go up 1 million. The big jump isn’t going to happen till after our players contract ends.

That's actually not what was reported. The cap will go up at least $1 million next year, but could be $3 million if revenues exceed projections this year (largely through high revenue teams making the playoffs). For '24 / '25, the year when new deals for Nylander and Matthews kick in, it is expected the cap will be about $88 million. That's I believe a $5.5 million increase from this year, so that will definitely help. And for '25 / '26, when Marner and Tavares are up (JT's next contract will surely be reduced by a few million), the cap should pop up to $94 million. There will be a squeeze, especially in '24 / '25, but a higher cap will make it easier to manage.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

That's just not gonna happen. I don't see Nylander getting more than $9M. Could depend on what Pastrnak gets on his next deal.

Mitch and Matthews got $11M and $12M based on 94 point seasons and 73 (in 68 games) seasons. Lets say Nylander finishes with 40 goals and 85 points on back to back season. I think $10M is the starting point. Not factoring in the Playoffs.

Nylander's raise will be (hopefully) be paid from JT's Salary reduction the year after.

 

[notDatsyuk]

That's just not gonna happen. I don't see Nylander getting more than $9M. Could depend on what Pastrnak gets on his next deal.

I don't expect it, but it's possible.

But I was just responding to the suggestion that Nylander and Tavares will flip salaries next time - ie, that Willy will get $11 and JT will get $7.

 

[the real Fox mulder]

Is it hard to believe that if Toronto goes far in the playoff or wins the Stanley cup and Dubas trades for players like Kane, Ryan O'Reilly, or Meier. Players will sign for less to stay with the team. Players asking for $11M could take a discount of $2 to $3M less, and older players like Kane could ask for $5M or less.

 

[Ashdown2]

I don't expect it, but it's possible.

But I was just responding to the suggestion that Nylander and Tavares will flip salaries next time - ie, that Willy will get $11 and JT will get $7.

there are no compatibles to a guys with nylanders stats making over even 8.5 mil . ppl need to chill out

 

[PromisedLand]

I am expecting

Nylander would be about 10 to 11 AAV (+3 to 4 million)
Matthews would be about 13 to 14 AAV (+2 to 3 million)
Factor in Marner's increase about 13 to 14 AAV too (+2 to 3 million)

thats a total of about 7M to 10 AAV increase that pretty much covers ,most of Tavares' contract together IMO so doesnt leave much in the bank.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Look at what our star players did when they were rfa's and had literally no leverage. We know what they're about. They are going to go for every single solitary penny they can get.

Let's be generous and say the cap ceiling is 86 mil on the "overlap" year. We could very feasibly have right near 60% of our cap on 4 forwards that year. Yikes. And that's with a Tavares in his mid 30's who almost assuredly will have taken a significant step back.

Things are slightly better with Tavares off the books the next season. But I don't see Matthews signing for less than 15 mil... and Marner seems to demand being paid as his equal. He didn't have the leverage to do so as a rfa, and eventually "settled" for a significant overpayment in relation to direct comparables. Nylander could get more than 10 on the open market, so he'll demand that. Let's say 10.5

Right now we're struggling like hell with FOUR forwards taking up around half the cap. But in a couple of years it will be THREE forwards taking up half the cap.

It's not sustainable. No other team is built this way. No other team loses in such humiliating fashion in the first round EVERY season.

It's a disaster. It's a travesty. It's reprehensible.

I'm sorry, but it makes more sense to trade one of them now while we can get something out of it. We'll have to build our team around TWO superstar forwards. Oh, the horror. Most teams don't even have one.

 

[budzz]

there are no compatibles to a guys with nylanders stats making over even 8.5 mil . ppl need to chill out

Mr. Huberdeau says hi, waving his 10.5 in the air.

NOT gonna start comparing players (I'm sure that alone is a seperate 60-70 thread count lol) but there's some precedent. Gaudreau at 9.75. Again not comparing players at all but they're in the same stratosphere, Johnny better numbers willy 2 years yoounger.

Yeah Willy's gonna get paid.

 

[ToneDog]

Look at what our star players did when they were rfa's and had literally no leverage. We know what they're about. They are going to go for every single solitary penny they can get.

Let's be generous and say the cap ceiling is 86 mil on the "overlap" year. We could very feasibly have right near 60% of our cap on 4 forwards that year. Yikes. And that's with a Tavares in his mid 30's who almost assuredly will have taken a significant step back.

Things are slightly better with Tavares off the books the next season. But I don't see Matthews signing for less than 15 mil... and Marner seems to demand being paid as his equal. He didn't have the leverage to do so as a rfa, and eventually "settled" for a significant overpayment in relation to direct comparables. Nylander could get more than 10 on the open market, so he'll demand that. Let's say 10.5

Right now we're struggling like hell with FOUR forwards taking up around half the cap. But in a couple of years it will be THREE forwards taking up half the cap.

It's not sustainable. No other team is built this way. No other team loses in such humiliating in the first round EVERY season.

It's a disaster. It's a travesty. It's reprehensible.

I'm sorry, but it makes more sense to trade one of them now while we can get something out of it. We'll have to build our team around TWO superstar forwards. Oh, the horror. Most teams don't even have one.

Not sure how you can give 34 $15m after MacKinnon took 12.6 off a SC win and playing for $6+m on his last contract. If he wants $15m then I trade him, especially of he asks for it after another 1st round exit. You got players playing for half that money who are outperforming him. Sorry, pay him $15 and be prepared to pay Mitch $14m. No thanks but that is just me.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Not sure how you can give 34 $15m after MacKinnon took 12.6 off a SC win and playing for $6+m on his last contract. If he wants $15m then I trade him, especially of he asks for it after another 1st round exit. You got players playing for half that money who are outperforming him. Sorry, pay him $15 and be prepared to pay Mitch $14m. No thanks but that is just me.

Do you think, on the open market, a team would offer Matthews 15 mil? I do. He'll be 26 years old with at least 2 Richards and at least 1 Hart.

These guys are ALL about the money. They proved that with rfa negotiations. If he could get it on the open market, he'll demand it to stay.

 

[Jojalu]

Look at what our star players did when they were rfa's and had literally no leverage. We know what they're about. They are going to go for every single solitary penny they can get.

Let's be generous and say the cap ceiling is 86 mil on the "overlap" year. We could very feasibly have right near 60% of our cap on 4 forwards that year. Yikes. And that's with a Tavares in his mid 30's who almost assuredly will have taken a significant step back.

Things are slightly better with Tavares off the books the next season. But I don't see Matthews signing for less than 15 mil... and Marner seems to demand being paid as his equal. He didn't have the leverage to do so as a rfa, and eventually "settled" for a significant overpayment in relation to direct comparables. Nylander could get more than 10 on the open market, so he'll demand that. Let's say 10.5

Right now we're struggling like hell with FOUR forwards taking up around half the cap. But in a couple of years it will be THREE forwards taking up half the cap.

It's not sustainable. No other team is built this way. No other team loses in such humiliating fashion in the first round EVERY season.

It's a disaster. It's

40 million is not half of 86.

Plus I doubt Marner and Matthews ask for that.

Do you think, on the open market, a team would offer Matthews 15 mil? I do. He'll be 26 years old with at least 2 Richards and at least 1 Hart.

These guys are ALL about the money. They proved that with rfa negotiations. If he could get it on the open market, he'll demand it to stay.

They didn't prove anything except they were young and immature in their longterm goals.

You don't know them so stop pretenxing you know what they are going to do.

 

[budzz]

Do you think, on the open market, a team would offer Matthews 15 mil? I do. He'll be 26 years old with at least 2 Richards and at least 1 Hart.

These guys are ALL about the money. They proved that with rfa negotiations. If he could get it on the open market, he'll demand it to stay.

Yeah he'd most definitely get that. Quite a few teams would happily pounce on an elite sniper franchise center. Rangers at the top of the list. Hell the Habs would jump at it too easily, I suspect about 15 other teams may as well.

 

[Jojalu]

Not sure how you can give 34 $15m after MacKinnon took 12.6 off a SC win and playing for $6+m on his last contract. If he wants $15m then I trade him, especially of he asks for it after another 1st round exit. You got players playing for half that money who are outperforming him. Sorry, pay him $15 and be prepared to pay Mitch $14m. No thanks but that is just me.

Go look at the top 25 cap hits and count how many have won a cup. Mack was getting paid regardless if they won ot not.

It's not a factor in contracts. In any sport

 

[ToneDog]

Do you think, on the open market, a team would offer Matthews 15 mil? I do. He'll be 26 years old with at least 2 Richards and at least 1 Hart.

These guys are ALL about the money. They proved that with rfa negotiations. If he could get it on the open market, he'll demand it to stay.

Perhaps and that is why I would move him first. Any team that is willing to pay him $15m will have to shed salary and should be able to send you a nice package of players, picks and prospects. A 7th first round exist should be more than enough to prove paying 4 forwards half you cap does not work, not to mention these 4 forwards.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

40 million is not half of 86.

Plus I doubt Marner and Matthews ask for that.


They didn't prove anything except they were young and immature in their longterm goals.

You don't know them so stop pretenxing you know what they are going to do.

Alright, 47%, not 50%. lol What a difference.

And I'm allowing actual real history to determine my opinions of them. It's a verifiable fact that they were greedy and fought for every single solitary penny they could get from our rookie gm. And that's when they had NO leverage. Now that they actually have leverage you don't think they'll use it? That's pretty silly...

Perhaps and that is why I would move him first. Any team that is willing to pay him $15m will have to shed salary and should be able to send you a nice package of players, picks and prospects. A 7th first round exist should be more than enough to prove paying 4 forwards half you cap does not work, not to mention these 4 forwards.

What do you think about (if possible) keeping Matthews at 15 mil and trading Marner? I personally would rather Matthews at 15 mil than Marner at slightly cheaper (12.5-ish?).

 

[ToneDog]

Go look at the top 25 cap hits and count how many have won a cup. Mack was getting paid regardless if they won ot not.

It's not a factor in contracts. In any sport

Mac was making $6m when they won. Now that was a big factor. Let's see how easy it is for Sakic to win another when Mac is getting $12.6. Sorry I do not see why we should pay Matty 2.5m more than 97, when we will give him a ton of money up front, he is not playing in Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg or Buffalo etc.

Sorry if he values $$$ over winning, I won't be sad seeing him moved.

 

[Jojalu]

Mac was making $6m when they won. Now that was a big factor. Let's see how easy it is for Sakic to win another ovve Mac is getting $12.6. Sorry I do not see why we should pay Matty 2.5m more than 97, when we will give him a ton of money up front, he is not playing in Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg or Buffalo etc.

Sorry if he values $$$ over winning, I won't be sad seeing him moved.

With the cap increasing, that is just how pro sports works.

The top guys will continiously jump over each other.

Right or wrong, that's how it has happened since FA started.

The NHLPA will push him to take more than Mack, so McDavid can then ask for more than Matthews. Then in a few years someone will jump over all 3 of them

 

[KPower]

Mr. Huberdeau says hi, waving his 10.5 in the air.

NOT gonna start comparing players (I'm sure that alone is a seperate 60-70 thread count lol) but there's some precedent. Gaudreau at 9.75. Again not comparing players at all but they're in the same stratosphere, Johnny better numbers willy 2 years yoounger.

Yeah Willy's gonna get paid.

Huberdeau and Gaudreau were both coming off 115 points seasons.

 

[budzz]

Interesting salary cap wrinkle the friedman mentioned...

"We know it's going to go up a million dollars at least, the question is: Could it go up three or four? ... The key thing I keep hearing is, it's close, it's going to be close. I had one executive who said to me he thinks it could come down to how many high-revenue teams makes the playoffs," said Friedman on Sunday."

SOOO if the Leafs can go on a deep playoff run, it would generate extra revenue and help the cap rise, and therefore allow mo' money for the guys we gotta re-sign.

Maybe a new slogan on the dressing room wall for extra motivation

 

[Jojalu]

Alright, 47%, not 50%. lol What a difference.

And I'm allowing actual real history to determine my opinions of them. It's a verifiable fact that they were greedy and fought for every single solitary penny they could get from our rookie gm. And that's when they had NO leverage. Now that they actually have leverage you don't think they'll use it? That's pretty silly...


What do you think about (if possible) keeping Matthews at 15 mil and trading Marner? I personally would rather Matthews at 15 mil than Marner at slightly cheaper (12.5-ish?).

I think that way because demonstrated on the ice you can see maturity in their play.

Being 21 or 20 and going through the failures they have would seemingly open their eyes to it's hard to win that way.

 

[notDatsyuk]

there are no compatibles to a guys with nylanders stats making over even 8.5 mil . ppl need to chill out

Over the last 3+ seasons, in two more games but averaging 40 seconds less ice time per game, he has more goals, as many points, more ES goals and points, more PP goals, more OT goals, and more GWG than Tavares. Plus a better shooting %.

Over the last 3+ seasons, league wide, he's 13th in goals, 14th in PP goals, 17th in ES goals, and 19th in GWG.