Proposal: Tkachuck for W. Nylander

[Willy Stylez]

if you like Tkachuk so much, go be a flames fan.

That doesnt make sense.

 

[Twist and Shout]

Not terrible, but I wouldn't do it for the Leafs.

 

[Haatley]

did someone actually say nylander is a pp specialist?
13pts in 16 games as a rookie...the kid is dangerous everytime he is on the ice

Yeah his 6 even strength points are super impressive.

 

[Lunatik]

There's outliers for sure, the vast majority of UDFA's don't get picked up by NHL clubs though too.

I think the vain of that argument was that guys who reach a certain age and aren't playing in the pros are statistically less likely to have high upsides, not that success cases don't exist. As prospects become removed from their draft year (whether they were drafted or not) they become less likely to have real NHL careers as time rolls on

Jankowski could be good, I've heard lots of talk about him on the boards as a real prospect, but he has now put himself into a group that has a much lower success ratio than the group that advances through the pro ranks more quickly - which also probably bears little meaning to his case specifically other than maybe reducing the number of chances he'll get to crack the Flames roster. If he got to the AHL at 20, I'm sure that they would give him 3-4 years of grace period to establish himself in the NHL, now that he's 22 I'd be surprised if his runway is that long, but if he's got the talent to make it then he probably will. Josh Leivo is a guy for us who got to the AHL in his D+2 and we still feel he has a real shot to be an NHL'er, I think if he just got to the AHL last year (he's a year older than Jankowski) we would be less willing to give him an opportunity and he'd get buried in depth more quickly

You keep talking about how he reached the AHL at 22, ignoring that he just turned 22 in training camp. I don't see this kind of ignorance regarding someone like Hunter Shinkaruk (whom Jankowski was outplaying this year), but because he was in the 2013 draft rather than the 2012 draft he gets a pass despite being just 1 month older. Sure Shinkaruk has been afforded a few more opportunities due to playing in the AHL sooner, but that does not mean he is or will be the better player; in fact I would argue that Jankowski is already better.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Yeah his 6 even strength points are super impressive.

how about his 5v5 68.49 CF/60, 5v5 51.84FF/60, 5v5 adjusted 2.97xgf/60?

 

[93LEAFS]

I think we are seeing older prospects more and more of an impact in recent years, starting with your own Bozak who was 23 before he made his AHL debut. People always talk about how prospects after a certain amount of time have a lesser chance of making it, but that is also in normal cases. We've all known this was a different situation from the moment Jankowski was drafted, he was initially projected to go to the USHL for a year, then to college for 4 before and then spend a year in the AHL. Now it's looking like he could make his NHL debut 2 seasons earlier than projected, I'm not suggesting he is a lock to be an impact player or anything but the fact of the matter is most projects like this that fizzle out, do so before this and don't continue a strong upwards progression.

Just pointing this out, I don't think that would have been the Flames development plan for him. If he went to the USHL post-draft then went to college he would be a UFA at the end of his Jr year.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You keep talking about how he reached the AHL at 22, ignoring that he just turned 22 in training camp. I don't see this kind of ignorance regarding someone like Hunter Shinkaruk (whom Jankowski was outplaying this year), but because he was in the 2013 draft rather than the 2012 draft he gets a pass despite being just 1 month older. Sure Shinkaruk has been afforded a few more opportunities due to playing in the AHL sooner, but that does not mean he is or will be the better player; in fact I would argue that Jankowski is already better.

draft eligible+4, that's more accurate - he's a very late bday so one of the youngest in his draft class

As I've said in every post so far in this string, I know very little about Jankowski and am not pretending to. Players who don't play in the AHL until their draft + 4 are, as a group average, less likely to be good NHL'ers. I drew a Leivo comparison because I'm familiar with that situation and can see that if he took longer to get to the AHL we would probably have afforded him less runway, so I believe that Jankowski will have to show his value more quickly than if he'd taken the shorter route to the AHL/NHL

It seems like you're trying to be offended about Jankowski, not sure why

 

[93LEAFS]

Yeah his 6 even strength points are super impressive.

And Sam Bennett's 7 points in 18 games is just amazing production for a guy in their sophomore year drafted it the top 5......

Nylander has played 17 games this year, and has never been powerplay dependent in his life. So we probably need more than a 17 game sample size to say he's PP dependent at the NHL level.

 

[Lunatik]

Just pointing this out, I don't think that would have been the Flames development plan for him. If he went to the USHL post-draft then went to college he would be a UFA at the end of his Jr year.

Except that was the development plan, not all teams are scared of the "Schultz loophole", the Flames have not had an issue signing any college players that they have the rights to as they build solid relationships with the players.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

No reason for either team to do this. Tkachuk fits a need for the Flames as well, and the value is definitely arguable from a Leafs perspective.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

Except that was the development plan, not all teams are scared of the "Schultz loophole", the Flames have not had an issue signing any college players that they have the rights to as they build solid relationships with the players.

Yup, only player I remember refusing to sign or anything of the sort is Erixon, and it is pretty easy to laugh about that (though I was pissed at the time!!)

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

draft eligible+4, that's more accurate - he's a very late bday so one of the youngest in his draft class

As I've said in every post so far in this string, I know very little about Jankowski and am not pretending to. Players who don't play in the AHL until their draft + 4 are, as a group average, less likely to be good NHL'ers. I drew a Leivo comparison because I'm familiar with that situation and can see that if he took longer to get to the AHL we would probably have afforded him less runway, so I believe that Jankowski will have to show his value more quickly than if he'd taken the shorter route to the AHL/NHL

- The Flames organization has always believed in Jankowski. They have openly talked about how he is going to be matching up to guys like Kopitar and Getzlaf once he's fully developed, that's not something you talk about with NHL long-shots
- Jankowski has plenty of runway. He is waiver-exempt until he is 24 years old. He has also never plateaued at any age.
- Tall wiry players naturally develop at a slower pace than kids who were stocky at younger ages for physical reasons. That's why Mark Scheifele has come out of almost nowhere from the 2011 draft to now being a premier center.
- Comparing a player who never played Junior A, USHL, or CHL to the "averages" (players who were playing USHL or CHL from around 16 throughl 20) is highly flawed because it assumes players only get better because they are older. Progression is a function of experience. Count up Jankowski's lifetime games played through age 21 in meaningful leagues. Now compare that to other 22 year olds. You don't get better in a vacuum, you get better by playing competitive, physical, fast, close games, and those games add up as accumulated experience. You mentioned Josh Leivo as a player who was reaching the tail end of his development curve at age 22. But you neglected the games played. Below I have included a table of games played at different ages for some Leafs prospects VS Jankowski:

Games Played (Junior A, CHL, USHL, NCAA, Pro)

Age | Leivo | Jankowski | Brown
17 | 72 | 0 | 120
18| 143 |34 | 183
19| 223 |73 | 265
20| 301 |110 | 346
21| 366 |156 | 402
22| 444 | 166 | 419
23 | 448 | -| -

Do you see why comparing Jankowski to the other two based on age alone, is highly flawed? Right now, his in-game experience is closer to that of the other two at eighteen years old. Sure, he's played in some very high level hockey, higher than CHL for sure, including leading his team to the NCAA championship, and now playing the AHL, so it's not a 1:1 comparision of just games played. But the point stands - comparing a guy who has 166 truly high-level games played in his lifetime to a guy with over 400, is flawed.

And that is why us Flames fans worked up every time other teams' fans bring their commentary about Jankowski by comparing him to "typical" prospects. Typical prospects are not drafted out of high school. Typical prospects are not drafted at 6'4", 170lbs. Typical prospects didn't play on college teams that were bottom feeders before they got there and bottom feeders again when they left there.

 

[Menzinger]

Thats not true. Willy is decent positionally in the D zone and is pretty good at stealing pucks and board battles.

He's also a good possession player.

Problem for some is that they always conflate physicality with defensive ability which often isnt the case

 

[Reinhart]

With all due respect to Nylander, I disagree with the OP stating that "Obviously Nylander is worth more". Why is it obvious?

Tkachuk has shown a tremendous amount of skill. On top of this, he has shown a very unexpected level of defensive acumen. He also has the ability to infuriate the other team and get them off their game. I think he is incredibly versatile and valuable. Even when he is not scoring, he is contributing. He just happens to also have quite a nice offensive ceiling.

I really like Nylander - he is a really good young player with a very high ceiling, but as a Flames fan I don't make that trade. I don't think Nylander has 'obviously more value', and Tkachuk adds a very versatile element to the Flames that Nylander wouldn't be able to (and quite frankly, I can't think of a young player off the top of my head that would).

Either way, I think neither player would be in the conversation for a 'change of scenery' type of trade, but I would take a stab at each GM and say that neither GM would trade these players except for an over-payment, and neither player qualifies as an over-payment for one another.

Nylander would be irreplaceable as Toronto's 2nd line center, and the Flames desperately need a high-end winger to compliment the top 6.

 

[AustonsNostrils]

Not that close to me, if I'm the Leafs I make that trade. Thinking ahead to gritty playoff hockey, I want the dirtbag who can score from anywhere in many ways.

 

[34]

Happy with Nylander. He is the more skilled player.

 

[Pyrophorus]

So weird. Leafs finally have young players to be proud of in Nylander and Marner and there's all kinds of threads, from Leafs fans, suggesting we trade them. I don't get it.

Nor do I. Nylander is doing more here.

Why do we need a 31st winger in our system?

 

[Liminality]

It's an interesting trade idea but nothing really more than that.

No reason for either team to do this when their both still so young and figuring out how good they can become.

 

[Randy Randerson]

- The Flames organization has always believed in Jankowski. They have openly talked about how he is going to be matching up to guys like Kopitar and Getzlaf once he's fully developed, that's not something you talk about with NHL long-shots
- Jankowski has plenty of runway. He is waiver-exempt until he is 24 years old. He has also never plateaued at any age.
- Tall wiry players naturally develop at a slower pace than kids who were stocky at younger ages for physical reasons. That's why Mark Scheifele has come out of almost nowhere from the 2011 draft to now being a premier center.
- Comparing a player who never played Junior A, USHL, or CHL to the "averages" (players who were playing USHL or CHL from around 16 throughl 20) is highly flawed because it assumes players only get better because they are older. Progression is a function of experience. Count up Jankowski's lifetime games played through age 21 in meaningful leagues. Now compare that to other 22 year olds. You don't get better in a vacuum, you get better by playing competitive, physical, fast, close games, and those games add up as accumulated experience. You mentioned Josh Leivo as a player who was reaching the tail end of his development curve at age 22. But you neglected the games played. Below I have included a table of games played at different ages for some Leafs prospects VS Jankowski:

Games Played (Junior A, CHL, USHL, NCAA, Pro)

Age | Leivo | Jankowski | Brown
17 | 72 | 0 | 120
18| 143 |34 | 183
19| 223 |73 | 265
20| 301 |110 | 346
21| 366 |156 | 402
22| 444 | 166 | 419
23 | 448 | -| -

Do you see why comparing Jankowski to the other two based on age alone, is highly flawed? Right now, his in-game experience is closer to that of the other two at eighteen years old. Sure, he's played in some very high level hockey, higher than CHL for sure, including leading his team to the NCAA championship, and now playing the AHL, so it's not a 1:1 comparision of just games played. But the point stands - comparing a guy who has 166 truly high-level games played in his lifetime to a guy with over 400, is flawed.

And that is why us Flames fans worked up every time other teams' fans bring their commentary about Jankowski by comparing him to "typical" prospects. Typical prospects are not drafted out of high school. Typical prospects are not drafted at 6'4", 170lbs. Typical prospects didn't play on college teams that were bottom feeders before they got there and bottom feeders again when they left there.

Again, not sure how I can say this more clearly, I don't know enough about Jankowski to have an informed opinion - and as such I haven't offered one. I responded to an aggressive poster who touted Jankowski's 1.2ppg in 10 AHL games as the primary reason why he's still relevant when he aggressively (an ignorantly in my opinion) responded to another poster who stated the reasons why he didn't think Jankowski would be a top 6 NHL centre in what I thought was a reasonable and courteous manner. That poster cited that players who make their AHL debut at D+4 are statistically less likely to be factors at the NHL level than those who got there earlier (regardless of the path they chose), which is objectively true

I used Leivo as an example that I am familiar with, and who is still hanging around at 23 years old with what most of the Leafs fanbase on here thinks is a real shot to be a good NHL'er (which I think is a bit of an anomaly, don't think many would still have that confidence bestowed on them). I then thought, if Leivo had debuted in the AHL at 22, would we still think of him in the same light a coming into his 4th season after his debut, and I don't think that he would. So I believe that Jankowski will face a shorter timeline from his entry into the AHL after having gone the college route than he would have if he had entered the AHL at 20. He's waiver exempt for 2 more years, as you mention, so I think he'll have to earn a real shot in that time (or at least show that he's worth a real look), rather than the ~4 years he probably would have had to do the same thing if he had entered the AHL at 20

I made no mention of Brown at any time

 

[thefish]

With all due respect to Nylander, I disagree with the OP stating that "Obviously Nylander is worth more". Why is it obvious?

Tkachuk has shown a tremendous amount of skill. On top of this, he has shown a very unexpected level of defensive acumen. He also has the ability to infuriate the other team and get them off their game. I think he is incredibly versatile and valuable. Even when he is not scoring, he is contributing. He just happens to also have quite a nice offensive ceiling.

I really like Nylander - he is a really good young player with a very high ceiling, but as a Flames fan I don't make that trade. I don't think Nylander has 'obviously more value', and Tkachuk adds a very versatile element to the Flames that Nylander wouldn't be able to (and quite frankly, I can't think of a young player off the top of my head that would).

Either way, I think neither player would be in the conversation for a 'change of scenery' type of trade, but I would take a stab at each GM and say that neither GM would trade these players except for an over-payment, and neither player qualifies as an over-payment for one another.

Nylander would be irreplaceable as Toronto's 2nd line center, and the Flames desperately need a high-end winger to compliment the top 6.

I think Nylander is worth decently more than Tkachuk, so here is my thinking.
1) Both have similar upside - top line player. Nylander has the advantage of playing centre and is more of a puck driver, Tkachuk is more physical. I prefer that first skillset, espec
2) Nylander is further along in his development - He's played against men in the AHL and around half a combined season in the NHL and showed he can dominate both. Tkachuk has dominated junior and has a good run in the NHL, but it's very small. Nylander is at minimum a NHL player, Tkachuk is more of a wild card even though both are likely to be great
3) Tkachuk played on one of the crazier lines in Junior. He's skilled, but anyone would put up great points with Marner and Dvorak. So there's that bit more uncertainty about the upside.

 

[DropIt]

Jankowski is your dream 2nd line C?!? Yikes.

One of only two 2012 1st rounders to have yet to play an nhl game. He's in his draft+6 year right now so he's approaching the spot where he's no longer a prospect, but a career ahler. He still looks like he may make the show, but I wouldn't get your hopes up on him being a top 6 guy at this stage.

You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. move on

 

[Amadeus]

William Nylander is a facilitator and finisher which makes him more valuable to me. I'd keep him. He's also got a great knack for stealing the puck off others.

Tkatchuk is great but, while I think he'll provide some toughness with adequate scoring, I don't think he'll provide the offense that Nylander will.

 

[TorontoTrades]

I can't see the Leafs turning down Matthews-Nylander-Kadri down the middle in a couple years rather than loading up one line. It's all about balance. Tkachuk is a good player and fits Calgary's need of a gritty LW for Monahan and Johnny Hockey.

Both teams say no.

 

[Atomos2]

Why would the Flames even entertain this? When Tkachuk is not scoring he still brings a physical presence and gets the opposition off his game. When Nylander is not scoring he is useless. Huge pass.

Difference is, there will be very few times when Nylander isn't scoring compared to Tkachuk. And the Leafs already have the physical presence in Komarov and Martin. Leafs don't need another fourth liner. If Tkachuk isn't scoring, he's useless to us. Especially if we have to give up a consistent scorer like Nylander to get him.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

id make this trade as a leaf fan.