Pre-Game Talk: Time to talk Playoffs

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Honestly I think that article has the worst lineup configuration I've seen.
Why? Galchenyuk has been fine but nothing special.

Zach Hyman–Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner

Probably the best top line that we've put out this year.

Nick Foligno–John Tavares–William Nylander

We haven't seen Foligno with Tavares yet, but it feels like it would be a great match. This line could produce and also be responsible defensively.

Ilya Mikheyev–Alexander Kerfoot–Wayne Simmonds

Energy line. They might chip in the odd goal.

Joe Thornton–Riley Nash–Jason Spezza

Great vet line that you can trust against any other bottom six.
 
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Why? Galchenyuk has been fine but nothing special.

Zach Hyman–Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner

Probably the best top line that we've put out this year.

Nick Foligno–John Tavares–William Nylander

We haven't seen Foligno with Tavares yet, but it feels like it would be a great match. This line could produce and also be responsible defensively.

Ilya Mikheyev–Alexander Kerfoot–Wayne Simmonds

Energy line. They might chip in the odd goal.

Joe Thornton–Riley Nash–Jason Spezza

Great vet line that you can trust against any other bottom six.

No doubt those top 2 lines there would likely be our best possible top 2 lines.

But those bottom 2 lines are a mess, imo. Two lines that you can't trust offensively or defensively.
 
Why? Galchenyuk has been fine but nothing special.

Zach Hyman–Auston Matthews–Mitch Marner

Probably the best top line that we've put out this year.

Nick Foligno–John Tavares–William Nylander

We haven't seen Foligno with Tavares yet, but it feels like it would be a great match. This line could produce and also be responsible defensively.

Ilya Mikheyev–Alexander Kerfoot–Wayne Simmonds

Energy line. They might chip in the odd goal.

Joe Thornton–Riley Nash–Jason Spezza

Great vet line that you can trust against any other bottom six.

This is pretty good but I think the bottom 6 balance becomes way better IF Thornton manages to play well with M&M.

Thornton-Matty-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Foligno-Nash-Simmonds - this would be a sick shut down line that can score
Mikey-Kerfoot-Spezza - Again a defensively responsible line that can score

Splitting the old guys might spread out the ‘slowness’ as well, although Spezza ain’t really slow
 
This is pretty good but I think the bottom 6 balance becomes way better IF Thornton manages to play well with M&M.

Thornton-Matty-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Foligno-Nash-Simmonds - this would be a sick shut down line that can score
Mikey-Kerfoot-Spezza - Again a defensively responsible line that can score

Splitting the old guys might spread out the ‘slowness’ as well, although Spezza ain’t really slow

Nah, I don’t think you can count on Thornton to play well for potentially 4 rounds. I don’t see it.
 
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This is pretty good but I think the bottom 6 balance becomes way better IF Thornton manages to play well with M&M.

Thornton-Matty-Marner
Hyman-Tavares-Nylander
Foligno-Nash-Simmonds - this would be a sick shut down line that can score
Mikey-Kerfoot-Spezza - Again a defensively responsible line that can score

Splitting the old guys might spread out the ‘slowness’ as well, although Spezza ain’t really slow
I’ve seen enough of the Leafs looking short handed with Thornton with M&M. He can’t keep up with other team’s top units, has found his niche as a physical 4th line contributor
 
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If Galchenyuk has earned his spot, and I think the last few games he’s been better, I can’t speak to underlying numbers in the last 4 games but I would say his work on that line at least gets him into game 1.

So the question remains, if you go with Kerfoot as the third line centre you need to pick 4 of the following players for the last 4 spots

Mikheyev, Spezza, Simmonds, Nash, Thornton, Brooks, Engvall, Robertson

That’s a damn good problem to have.
 
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In retrospect, IF we need to play MTL, it would be better for us to face them in the first round. Because, if we allow Price to gain confidence and momentum, he has a higher chance of being a wall and outright stealing the series. Preferably we do not face MTL in the 2nd round or at all.

WPG and then EDM is the best case scenario.
Otherwise, facing MTL then EDM would be the next best case.
Worst case is WPG and then MTL.
But...
Best scenario to make us a more resilient club is probably MTL then EDM.
Whoever comes out of the other conferences, most likely CAR, VGK, TBL, PIT, WAS will be our toughest challenge.
 
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Foligno - Matthews - Marner
Hyman - Tavares - Nylander
Kerfoot - Nash - Mikheyev
Thornton - Spezza - Simmonds
Galchenyuk
 
I think who we are playing should obviously have a large impact on what the lines are.

Against the Oilers I definitely want Hyman with Matthews and Marner to match up with McDavid and Drai when they are on the same line. When those two are split up I might consider dropping Hyman to the second line to beef up the defensive responsibility of the second line. Galchenyuk and Brooks as the odd men out.

Against the Jets I would want to spread the defensive players through the lineup because of their depth. Nash at 3c. Brooks at 4c. I would also be looking to keep some size or guys that play big in that series.
Kerfoot and Gally would probably be the odd men out for me.

Against the Habs I probably try to overwhelm them with our superior scoring. Hyman on the first line. Galchenyuk on the 2nd. Foligno on the 3rd. Brooks and one of Simmonds, Thornton or Mikheyev as the odd men out.
 
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Keefe has intentionally built in the ability to mix it up through the year.
I could see stretches of:
Thornton-Matthews-Marner
Gally-JT-Willie
Hyman-Foligno-Mik
Spezza-Kerfoot-Simmonds

gives a great third line to match up against teams with depth.

in close games or if we are chasing can flip out joe and Gally for Hyman and foligno to create a strong top 6 to carry heavy minutes. When you play teams like the oilers with little depth.
 
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If we assume we are playing Montreal (I realize we might still get Winnipeg, but let's assume the Habs for now).

Foligno • Matthews • Marner
Galchenyuk • Tavares • Nylander
Hyman • Kerfoot • Mikheyev
Thornton • Brooks • Spezza

Simmonds, Nash, Engvall and Robertson as depth

Rielly • Brodie
Muzzin • Holl
Sandin • Dermott

Bogosian, Hutton, Liljegren as depth

Campbell • Andersen

Rittich and Hutcheson as depth

I am not saying this is our optimal lineup for all four rounds, but I like it to start with against Montreal.

This allows us to get Nash and Bogosian very healthy...we will need both of them for a long run.

It allows us to play our best 4th line right now.

It allows our third line to actual be a checking line (that can score).

It allows Galchenyuk to play against his former team and have extra spark in a role that is working this far.

It gives us lots of options...

Take out AG and move Kerfoot up to second line and bring Nash in.

Take Brooks out and drop Kerfoot to fourth line centre and put Nash or Engvall on third line.

Need some muscle or energy? Slide Spezza over, take Brooks out and insert Simmonds on the fourth line.
 
Nah, I don’t think you can count on Thornton to play well for potentially 4 rounds. I don’t see it.

I’ve seen enough of the Leafs looking short handed with Thornton with M&M. He can’t keep up with other team’s top units, has found his niche as a physical 4th line contributor

You guys are likely correct, it’s more so a hope or maybe someone other than both Hyman and Foligno on the top 6 that I think would significantly strengthen the bottom 6
 
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I'm not worried about MTL at all, our team is much better than theirs. We should be able to handle either MTL or WPG, doesn't really matter. But then there is this little matter of revenge on MTL, MTL/TOR is one of the oldest rivalries in NA pro sports and it's time we played them, simple as that.

I'm pretty excited about this series also, however what worries me about this Leafs team is not the one-game chokes (losing to the Sens after leading 5-1, losing twice to the Nucks after their Covid) or even how they have a hard time handling Ottawa, but how in the world do they lose 4 straight games to Vancouver (outscored 16-8) after whipping them in the first 3. This is the scary part, I just feel that they take their foot off the gas pedal when they shouldn't, just like when they were up 3-2 in games over the Bruins 2 years ago.

Sure, they beat Vancouver the last 2 games but they still lost 4 straight to that basement dwelling team. I don't mean to sound so pessimistic but this Leafs team does have the ability to lose 4 straight games to the same crappy team. There's a lot to be optimistic about also but after 4 straight 1st round losses and how the Habs booted the Pens out last play-ins, it's hard to be over confident.
 
We're going to face a weaker team than the Bruins with much more solid goaltending. I think we win a series or two at minimum.
 
Foligno - Matthews - marner
Galch - Tavares - nylander
Hyman -kerfoot- Mikheyev
Spezza - brooks - simmonds

this would be my ideal lineup. Slim chance Thornton is scratched though
 
I'd lean towards keeping galy on the Tavares line tbh.

That line has had great underlying numbers together, Tavares and willybare both over a ppg since galy joined them, and galy's own production has finally started to take off over the last week or so to match the excellent underlying numbers.
 
Nash hasn’t played in a month and a half and has never shown to be more than a 4C. I think people here are going to be disappointed with him

4C by what? He's a terrific shutdown center. Exactly the type of player we need in the bottom 6.





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Leafs should make it to the top four and be the favorites to win that third series IMO unless we play Colorado who I think is playing better than us. Anything else is a let down. I've got sky high expectations this year and I am ready to be letdown because I think this year is Cup or bust.

This year just feels like our year. I don't know why I feel so optimistic but I just do. I think they're winning it all.
I love your optimism but here’s a cautionary note from a 65 year old die hard:
Assuming it’s Montreal in round 1:
*Jake Allen has looked unbeatable against us-he may already be inside our heads! That alone accounts for more than anything else in the playoffs. Look at what Korpisalo did to us (we won our last game because mainly of terrible goaltending by the Habs)
*Montreal will hit us at every turn (last game we were pummelled with the hits like 37-14 for the Habs). And without Weber to boot. How will we stand up to this in already tight playoff quarters?
*Montreal is no slouch, add Caufield to the improvements of Anderson and Toffoli

lots here for trouble
 
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