Thoughts on this seasons Flames

[Yepthatsme]

and you just fell victim to a pretty classic "analytics re the be all and end all"

Fine would you rather total points?
Chicago 104
Calgary 128

Total +/-?
Chicago -62
Calgary -19

Average weight?
Chicago 201 pounds
Calgary 206 pounds

Like what’s your point here? Other than “I have heard of the names they added”/60, they legitimately just have a worse group by any way of measuring.

 

[Bounces R Way]

What does the lineup actually look like? Who plays with who what when where why

Gooberdeau-Sharangovich-Mantha(kuzmenko?)
Zary-Kadri-Pospisil/Coronato(kuzmenko?)
Pelletier-Backlund-Coleman
Lomberg-some guy -Klapka(kuzmenko?)
Rooney(Hunt, Duehr)


Weegar-Andersson
Bahl-Miromanov
Solovyov/Bean/Pachal/Barrie/Hanley probably others

Wolf
Vladar


I dunno if that's bottom 5 bad but it's probably close. I mean god damn

 

[Yepthatsme]

I'm not arguing the youth thing for Anaheim and Columbus. What is factual about them is that they have added a bunch of young high potential players to their roster and we have not. So like I said I expect Columbus to finish below us I would not call it a guarantee by any means. A full season of Werenski for them could vastly change things for example, as he is a top 10 caliber defenseman in the league when healthy.

Kuzmenko and Huberdeau are only winger on our roster that even comes close to Bertuzzi's or Hall's caliber. Both of them will get prime power play minutes too, something Bertuzzi didn't get in Toronto.

Your take on their blue line is awful too. All you are doing is looking at 1 stat and comparing them. You don't even bother trying to factor in the difference in situations. Last year when Bedard wasn't on the ice Chicago had next to zero offensive pressure so they were constantly caved in in their own end.

For example despite all this Vlasic was statistically the best defensive dman in the league last year. And he was a rookie. Korchinski was also a rookie and will certainly improve this year, plus they will have Murphy back who missed the majority of last season with an injury. And though Brodie played like crap last year he was one of the top defensive dmen in the league just 1 year prior. Even if he can't reform that Levshunov is right there ready to take a spot

I didn't fall victim to that I simply know the sport better than you

You called Werenski a top 10 defenseman in the league when healthy in the same post you said you know the sport better than me LOL.

Also your Bertuzzi take is funny. Go on the polls and see who posters would rather have. Sharangovich or Bertuzzi. Coleman or 2024-25 Hall. You pretend Bertuzzi wasn’t stapled to a 98 point Nylander all season, and he had less points than Anthony Mantha did last year. “We only have two Bertuzzi caliber wingers” got a laugh out of me so thanks for that.

Weren’t you the poster who said getting less offensive zone time and getting caved in is a function of how bad the defense was, not offense, literally last week when you were trying to argue that Calgary losing Hanifin-Tanev would cripple our offense? Crazy how the tune changes to not having good enough forwards means they get caved in defensively when that’s what the argument calls for. Especially when the implication is Teravainen and Bertuzzi will save that D-core.

Vlasic isn’t the best defensive defenseman in the league, you just don’t understand relative stats. Because that’s where that sentiment began, with the fact he had the 5th best xGA/60 Rel in the league. The irony of you saying XGA/60 is a cherry picked stat then you accidentally try to use it in your argument is great. The absolute irony of you saying he’s the best because he looked so good in comparison to the rest of the brutal D-core you’re trying to defend is even better.

As far as actual suppression metrics, he was 88th in xGA/60, 74th in GA/60, and 148th in HDCA/60. So slightly above average except at suppressing chances. So definitely good, mostly because you have to give him credit with just how bad his team is at defense which you are unironically trying to defend.

Whenever you’re feeling cocky enough to say you know the sport better than people, I want you to go to the main boards and call Werenksi a top 10 defenseman and read the responses.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

The forward lines have been pretty obvious to me, although it might not play out that way. The D lines are tougher to figure out.

Sharongovich-Kadri-Kuzmenko

Interesting skill on this line

Huberdeau-Zary-Mantha

We got Mantha to get Huberdeau going allegedly. I donno personally I’d like to see Zary C Hubs and Sharon.

Coleman-Backlund-Coronato

Get our best forward prospect with two guys who mesh so well.

Pelletier-Pospisil-Lomberg

Paramount that we develop Zary and Pospisil at C. This would be a fun line to watch. Pospisil and Pelletier can also kill penalties to get more minutes.

Bahl-Weegar

Yeah pain will be felt when you look at this blue line. But I think Huska is really good at making D men useful. I think Bahl could surprise people.

Revolving door-Andersson

Basically let whoever of Miromanov, Solo, Kuznetsov, Poirier try to take a spot, give each significant NHL games. Bean, Pachal, Hanley can play some games if you need them to, I just don’t see any long term upside so what is the point in playing them more then 25-30 games each.

 

[Some Other Flame]

What it should be:

Mantha-Kadri-Kuzmenko
Huberdeau-Zary-Sharangovich
Coleman-Backlund-Coronato
Pelletier-Pospisil-Lomberg
Rooney/Hunt/Klapka/Kerins/Schwindt/Nikolaev/Stromgren

Weegar-Miromanov
Bahl-Andersson
Solovyov-Pachal
Bean/Hanley

What it's probably going to be:
Zary-Kadri-Kuzmenko
Huberdeau-Sharangovich-Pospisil
Coleman-Backlund-Mantha
Hunt-Rooney-Lomberg

Weegar-Andersson
Bahl-Miromanov
Bean-Pachal
Hanley

1. Flames have too many wingers & forwards. Bringing in Mantha when Kuzmenko was already there was superfluous

2. At least one but ideally both Zary and Pospisil need to play center this season otherwise what's the point

3. All of Pelletier, Coronato, & Solovyov need to be on the roster. Having zero prospects/rookies make the team in year 1 of the rebuild is a horrendously myopic strategy. But it would be quintessential Calgary Flames though.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

You called Werenski a top 10 defenseman in the league when healthy in the same post you said you know the sport better than me LOL.

Also your Bertuzzi take is funny. Go on the polls and see who posters would rather have. Sharangovich or Bertuzzi. Coleman or 2024-25 Hall. You pretend Bertuzzi wasn’t stapled to a 98 point Nylander all season, and he had less points than Anthony Mantha did last year. “We only have two Bertuzzi caliber wingers” got a laugh out of me so thanks for that.

Weren’t you the poster who said getting less offensive zone time and getting caved in is a function of how bad the defense was, not offense, literally last week when you were trying to argue that Calgary losing Hanifin-Tanev would cripple our offense? Crazy how the tune changes to not having good enough forwards means they get caved in defensively when that’s what the argument calls for. Especially when the implication is Teravainen and Bertuzzi will save that D-core.

Vlasic isn’t the best defensive defenseman in the league, you just don’t understand relative stats. Because that’s where that sentiment began, with the fact he had the 5th best xGA/60 Rel in the league. The irony of you saying XGA/60 is a cherry picked stat then you accidentally try to use it in your argument is great. The absolute irony of you saying he’s the best because he looked so good in comparison to the rest of the brutal D-core you’re trying to defend is even better.

As far as actual suppression metrics, he was 88th in xGA/60, 74th in GA/60, and 148th in HDCA/60. So slightly above average except at suppressing chances. So definitely good, mostly because you have to give him credit with just how bad his team is at defense which you are unironically trying to defend.

Whenever you’re feeling cocky enough to say you know the sport better than people, I want you to go to the main boards and call Werenksi a top 10 defenseman and read the responses.

LMAO spewing more words per minute does not make you smart.

1. I did not call Werenski a top 10 defenseman, I called him top 10 caliber. As in Makar, Fox, Hughes, Josi, Heiskanen, McAvoy, and Hedman are definitely better. After that there is absolutely an argument for him among others. He's definitely in the 8-15 range though.

2. Sharangovich has had 1 season over 50 points and he produced well above expectations in that season. He might hit 50 points again this year but ~45 is a safer bet for him, and definitely not 30 goals again. Bertuzzi will very likely outproduce him this season. I am a huge Coleman fan and have defending him for years but you are on drugs if you think he is better than Hall. Coleman is elite defensively but he is not remotely as good offensively as Hall.

3. You are putting words in my mouth I was very clear that Hockey is a 5 man game. 2 defenseman can not be expected to stop 5 on the other team alone. And vise-versa 3 forwards can not be expected to beat 5 people defending as a unit on the other team alone. Obviously considering you had the audacity to write me a book on the day of Gaudreau's death I was definitely going to ignore it.

Yes Vlasic was actually. He was literally in the 99 percentile for defensive play last year. Again, as a rookie

 

[Yepthatsme]

LMAO spewing more words per minute does not make you smart.

1. I did not call Werenski a top 10 defenseman, I called him top 10 caliber. As in Makar, Fox, Hughes, Josi, Heiskanen, McAvoy, and Hedman are definitely better. After that there is absolutely an argument for him among others. He's definitely in the 8-15 range though.

2. Sharangovich has had 1 season over 50 points and he produced well above expectations in that season. He might hit 50 points again this year but ~45 is a safer bet for him, and definitely not 30 goals again. Bertuzzi will very likely outproduce him this season. I am a huge Coleman fan and have defending him for years but you are on drugs if you think he is better than Hall. Coleman is elite defensively but he is not remotely as good offensively as Hall.

3. You are putting words in my mouth I was very clear that Hockey is a 5 man game. 2 defenseman can not be expected to stop 5 on the other team alone. And vise-versa 3 forwards can not be expected to beat 5 people defending as a unit on the other team alone. Obviously considering you had the audacity to write me a book on the day of Gaudreau's death I was definitely going to ignore it.

Yes Vlasic was actually. He was literally in the 99 percentile for defensive play last year. Again, as a rookie
View attachment 905410

The rest of it is just bad, but you really need to learn stats before you quote them. Defensive GAR is comprised entirely of relative stats. Here’s the formula:

(((RelT CA/Min - RL CA/Min)*-TOI) + ((RelT xGA/Min - RL xGA/Min)*-TOI))

Please educate yourself before getting in to these discussions, your proof that he wasn’t just good because of relative stats was to entirely use relative stats. He was rated the best defensive defenseman literally because how much he stood out from how terrible the rest of his defense core was. His actual results were middling, but with context on the defense core he was definitely an above average defensive defenseman.

If you’re going to quote these stats please atleast try to understand them first.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

The rest of it is just bad, but you really need to learn stats before you quote them. Defensive GAR is comprised entirely of relative stats. Here’s the formula:

(((RelT CA/Min - RL CA/Min)*-TOI) + ((RelT xGA/Min - RL xGA/Min)*-TOI))

Please educate yourself before getting in to these discussions, your proof that he wasn’t just good because of relative stats was to entirely use relative stats. He was rated the best defensive defenseman literally because how much he stood out from how terrible the rest of his defense core was. His actual results were middling, but with context on the defense core he was definitely an above average defensive defenseman.

If you’re going to quote these stats please atleast try to understand them first.

The amount of fabrication you use in your arguments is hilarious. You literally just make your own assumptions and insert them as fact.

I said Chicago struggled to form any sort of offense without Bedard on the ice last year. That is fact. You then brought up how I previously said Calgary lost offense due to loosing Tanev and Hanifin, saying that I am being a hypocrite by arguing that offensive zone time is a "function of defense not offense." No it's a 5v5 game I was very clear on this. In the post last week I had also brought up how Calgary doesn't have a McDavid to just singlehandedly turn a game around. Chicago does though in Bedard, and after they lost Hall and Perry last year Bedard was the only legitimate top 6 forward on their entire roster.

I said you only use 1 stat, expected goals for/against. Then in a separate statement I stated that Vlasic was statistically the best defensive dman in the league last year. Just because his relative xGA/60 agrees he was good you just assumed that was the stat I used. Which it was not as I showed in my next post where I gave you a graph indicating his defensive GAR.

The after I posted his defensive GAR you make up some bullshit about how I was trying to prove "he wasn’t just good because of relative stats." Like where did I say that????

You are lost man. You act all pretentious but your entire argument is based on you putting words into my mouth. I'm done talking to you, because we still have a month before the season starts and you will keep finding ways to argue pointlessly. I'll let the season prove you wrong instead, and if by some miracle you end up right and like Miromanov gets 45 points or something then I will tip my hat and admit it but I highly doubt he gets even 30 points.

 

[Rubi]

Not my thoughts... Friedman and Conroy's

Friedman: Calgary Flames taking a wait and see approach before making further moves

Friends, the Calgary Flames are in the midst of a pretty radical overh...

flamesnation.ca

 

[Fig]

Not my thoughts... Friedman and Conroy's

Friedman: Calgary Flames taking a wait and see approach before making further moves

Friends, the Calgary Flames are in the midst of a pretty radical overh...

flamesnation.ca

IMO it is not worded in a way that hints vets want out. It seems worded in a way where the vets would start complaining if a full tear down continued and playoffs next season looked bleak.

I wonder if that means Conroy might look into quantity for quality trades.

 

[Rubi]

IMO it is not worded in a way that hints vets want out. It seems worded in a way where the vets would start complaining if a full tear down continued and playoffs next season looked bleak.

I wonder if that means Conroy might look into quantity for quality trades.

Further to what Friedman said, listen to what Dave Pagnotta says..
Flames talk starts at 2:15

NHL Tonight: David Pagnotta | NHL.com

David Pagnotta joins NHL Tonight

www.nhl.com

 

[Lunatik]

Further to what Friedman said, listen to what Dave Pagnotta says..
Flames talk starts at 2:15

NHL Tonight: David Pagnotta | NHL.com

David Pagnotta joins NHL Tonight

www.nhl.com

Pagnotta is never worth listening to, he is one of the absolute worst in teh business.

 

[Nanuuk]

Can't remember if I posted on this thread before and am too lazy to review 7 pages.

I am an optimist.

I don't think our defensive corps will be as bad as some seem to think. This will be year 2 of a zone defence system. Meaning man to man coverage isn't a thing and also meaning the level of talent needed to play man to man isn't there. Guys like Miromanov and Pachal will see lots of ice and we will see if they are up to the challenge.

I think our goaltending may be challenged. If only from the lack of experience. But once the lads are into it those concerns will lessen. Both Vladar and Wolf have talent.

I'm pretty satisfied with the forward group. Sure a 1C that puts up 100 points would be ideal, but again we have a lot of talent up there. Some concerns are whether the second year men (Zary, Pospisil) will be re-roled as centres and what effect will that have on their overall play?

Certainly we have offensive potential from Huberdeau, Sharangovich, Kuzmenko, Mantha, Coleman, Coronato, Pelletier on the wings. Lots of talent there.

Kadri, Backlund, and Rooney will be solid centres. Offensive production from Kadri has to be counted on. If he slides a bit hopefully one of Posp or Zary can take up the slack.

Our powerplay will be a strong point of the team this year. And it will win us a lot of games, unlike the last two years. New PP coach, some more talent will do the trick.

I'm not overly worried about the PK either. It could be a challenge, but the main guys at forward are still there and it has always been well coached. So if new players get PK duty I'm sure they'll step right in.

Will we make the play-offs? I can hear the harrumphs and chortles now. It is a goal that all teams must have. I think that if the moon and stars align, then yes we can. Best case scenario.

More likely we will compete once again and then fall out of the picture. A couple more vets, or at least one, will head out at the trade dead line.

The Flames will do their job keeping us occupied during long cold winters and release us for outdoor activities in the spring.

Life goes on.

 

[Rubi]

Is this the 2024-25 Armchair GM thread?

 

[Rubi]

A lot of people are expecting to see Kuzmenko traded by the TDL.
I expect that too as extending him will likely be expensive since he's currently making $5.5m a year.
However can we ever seriously expect to be able to get a 1st rnd pick for him?

 

[herashak]

A 2nd + 3rd should be a good enough return for Kuz with a solid season, I think a team like Minnesota should do it

 

[Khrox]

I don't think our defensive corps will be as bad as some seem to think. This will be year 2 of a zone defence system. Meaning man to man coverage isn't a thing and also meaning the level of talent needed to play man to man isn't there. Guys like Miromanov and Pachal will see lots of ice and we will see if they are up to the challenge.

I'm with you on this. I'm not as down on a lot of the guys we brought in. I see a lot of bottom 4 D in these guys and in our more established prospects. And that's not a knock, with a good defensive system you don't actually need big name number one guys. It reminds me more of back in the Arizona in the late Bryzgalov/early Mike Smith era (Where your main D was Yandle, Adrian Aucoin, David Schlemko, Derek Morris, had a couple years of Jovanovski and ELC-era Ekman-Larson).

 

[Volica]

A 2nd + 3rd should be a good enough return for Kuz with a solid season, I think a team like Minnesota should do it

If he could give people a glimpse at that 22-23 Kuzmenko, there will be some teams desperately needing scoring that would for sure give that up.
Generally the one-dimensional scoring wingers have a limit in terms of their deadline price unless they've got a bigger name to them.

Turning Lindholm into:
Hunter Brzustewicz
Joni Jurmo
Matvei Gridin
Eric Jamieson
Luke Misa
2025 2nd
2025/26 3rd

Would be incredibly handy work.

You take out the last two pieces and it's already handy work. Getting two of your top 5/6 prospects out of a single deal is just solid work.

 

[Khrox]

Turning Lindholm into:
Hunter Brzustewicz
Joni Jurmo
Matvei Gridin
Eric Jamieson
Luke Misa
2025 2nd
2025/26 3rd

Hell, take out the two picks and just having 1.5 years of an exciting scoring winger is still not bad given everything else in that (hell, Lindholm for Kuzmenko, Brzu and Gridin would have been a "decent with potential to be good" trade, getting Misa, Jamieson, and Jurmo is fantastic on that). If we can either get Kuzmenko re-signed for another 2-3 years on a smaller deal (say 4 mil) if he gels here, or if we can get another pick or two out of him, just adds ice cream to the cake (I know the saying is icing, but I really like ice cream cakes, so I'm sticking with what I said).

 

[Nanuuk]

Part of me wonders whether playing Huberdeau with two exuberant kids like Zary and Pospisil might just light a fire under him the way it did for Kadri last year.

And since playing with two kids worked so well with Naz last year why not try it again this year?

Ergo,

Huberdeau/Zary/Pospisil
Pelletier/Kadri/Coronato
Lomberg/Backlund/Coleman
Kuzmenko/Sharangovich/Mantha
Rooney

A non traditional 4 line for sure, but the objective here is to roll 4 lines.

Weegar/Miromanov
Bahl/Andersson
Bean/Pachal
Solovyov/Barrie

Experience/Inexperience with at least one defensively minded player on each pairing.

As training camp approaches I would not be the least surprised if a current roster player is moved.

 

[Volica]

Part of me wonders whether playing Huberdeau with two exuberant kids like Zary and Pospisil might just light a fire under him the way it did for Kadri last year.

And since playing with two kids worked so well with Naz last year why not try it again this year?

Ergo,

Huberdeau/Zary/Pospisil
Pelletier/Kadri/Coronato
Lomberg/Backlund/Coleman
Kuzmenko/Sharangovich/Mantha
Rooney

A non traditional 4 line for sure, but the objective here is to roll 4 lines.

Weegar/Miromanov
Bahl/Andersson
Bean/Pachal
Solovyov/Barrie

Experience/Inexperience with at least one defensively minded player on each pairing.

As training camp approaches I would not be the least surprised if a current roster player is moved.

I think you throw Zary between Mantha and Huberdeau and ask him to do some work.
Lots of easy zone starts, but you're going to be struggling to keep your head about water on the defence end with those two.

Zary sort of projects as a middle 6C if he hits, so I think it's important for Calgary to give him a long look there. Papa Shango is fine at centre or wing, but we saw what happened to him offensively when they put him down the middle.

 

[Lunatik]

I think you throw Zary between Mantha and Huberdeau and ask him to do some work.
Lots of easy zone starts, but you're going to be struggling to keep your head about water on the defence end with those two.

Zary sort of projects as a middle 6C if he hits, so I think it's important for Calgary to give him a long look there. Papa Shango is fine at centre or wing, but we saw what happened to him offensively when they put him down the middle.

I'm not opposed to this... I assume the "top" line with be Naz, Rango and Kuz?

 

[Rubi]

Honestly, I'm ambivalent with regards to who plays with who. I think the whole season will suck and I'll primarily be looking at individual players, and mostly younger players at that, and watching how they play and how they are progressing. I'll also be cheering on players like Kuzmenko and Andersson to play well this season thus increasing their trade value.

Oh... I'll also be watching Wolf with fingers crossed. The Flames have a lot riding on that young man. Now I don't expect miracles with Wolf but it would be nice to see the kid that twice won AHL Goalie of the Year show up occasionally.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Part of me wonders whether playing Huberdeau with two exuberant kids like Zary and Pospisil might just light a fire under him the way it did for Kadri last year.

And since playing with two kids worked so well with Naz last year why not try it again this year?

Ergo,

Huberdeau/Zary/Pospisil
Pelletier/Kadri/Coronato
Lomberg/Backlund/Coleman
Kuzmenko/Sharangovich/Mantha
Rooney

A non traditional 4 line for sure, but the objective here is to roll 4 lines.

Weegar/Miromanov
Bahl/Andersson
Bean/Pachal
Solovyov/Barrie

Experience/Inexperience with at least one defensively minded player on each pairing.

As training camp approaches I would not be the least surprised if a current roster player is moved.

A majority of the reason the Zary-Kadri-Pospisil worked so well is because Kadri is capable of doing some extremely heavy lifting for a line. Huberdeau is… not. Huberdeau should also be put with some very high end offensive players/finishers. Pospisil does what he does very well, but he was also on pace for 10 goals and 30 points over a full season. That is not ideal at all for a top 6 player or a guy getting dreamy offensive usage. I’m still a fan of using him as our 4C this year, and seeing if he can maybe grow into a 3C down the road. I like the idea of Zary centering Huberdeau after Zary handled the transition admirably to end the year, but with Sharangovich there to provide a finisher for Huberdeau and keep their chemistry.

Kuzmenko-Kadri-Mantha
Huberdeau-Zary-Sharangovich
Coleman-Backlund-Coronato
Pelletier-Pospisil-Lomberg

Should bring an extremely balanced offense, with our entire top 9 having multiple players per line capable of scoring 20 or atleast coming close. Baclund line has to take some brutal matchups though to compensate for the other forward lines deficiencies defensively.

 

[Khrox]

A majority of the reason the Zary-Kadri-Pospisil worked so well is because Kadri is capable of doing some extremely heavy lifting for a line. Huberdeau is… not.

And another part is because of complimenting playstyles. Kadri has always played best when he's with a shooter and another crash-and-banger. Zary is the shooter, and Pospy is absolutely a crash and banger.

Huberdeau works best with a defensively responsible forward who can chip in, and a high skill shooter. Arguably we have a few combinations of shooter (Mantha, Kuzmenko, Rango), but are lacking in the higher end defensively responsible guy (either Coleman or Backlund, but you probably don't want to split those two up either without creating a different problem for us)