Thoughts on this seasons Flames

[MM917]

The new D-men are inexperienced, but not untalented. The zone system will compensate for some talent loss.

What??? The new d-men are 100% untalented. Outside of Andersson and Weegar none of our d-men should be in the NHL.

 

[Nanuuk]

Says you.

 

[MM917]

Says you.

And their careers and all evidence we have to go on.

 

[Nanuuk]

Which isn't enough to render a judgment that they aren't NHL'ers. There was a large enough sample last season to prove you wrong.

 

[InfinityIggy]

What??? The new d-men are 100% untalented. Outside of Andersson and Weegar none of our d-men should be in the NHL.

Bahl is an NHL defenceman all day, ceiling is in question but to call him not an NHL player is just flatly wrong.

Miromanov is an interesting case. You can very much make the argument that were he not on such a stacked contender (Vegas) his NHL experience to this point would be much higher. The question remains if he is an NHL player in the long run, but to say one way or the other now is too early.

Bean + Pachal, I will grant you are 6/7 guys and not much else and on most teams are spares.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

The stats don't back up the view that Kuzmenko and Mantha are horrible defensively. Sharangovich slid from his Jersey stint, but still wasn't bad.

Kuzmenko - CF% (even strength) 54.4, oZs%, 66.8 (ok he's sheltered a lot), Takeaways 27, Giveaways 24 (ratio 1.12:1)
Mantha - CF% 51.8, oZS% 49.3, Takeaways 23, Giveaways 22 (ratio 1.04:1)
Sharangovich - CF% 50.0, oZs% 59.5, Takeaways 35, Giveaways 39 (ratio 1:1.14)

I always use the takeaway/giveaway measure as a tell-tale sign of the effectiveness of a player and it generally holds true. If the ratio is negative they're coughing the puck up too much. If the ratio is positive, they're checking and getting the puck.

For comparisons sake,

Backlund - CF% 53.5, oZs% 37.5, Takeaways 61, Giveaways 56 (ratio 1.089:1)

A simple view perhaps, but it works for me.

As far as Kadri and Backs taking a step back goes, perhaps. It is difficult to attribute that to a possible down year or to the aging process. Given the way professional athletes train and take care of their bodies these days I don't think it necessarily follows that at age 33 or 35 they're done.

I'm not expecting anything from Lombo other than grit, a speedy forecheck, and leadership. If he happens to light a fire on the 4 line and they rack up some points, stir the pot, and be responsible defensively, it is a huge win.

Lomberg - CF% 50.0, oZs% 46.2, Takeaways 14, Giveaways 14 (ratio 1:1)

Go Flames go!

I think you are using a broad brush for a bit of fine painting here. While yes Backlund is a proven strong 2-way player and his CF and TA/GA ratio do defend that I do not think TA/GA is a good measure for that. Players with high giveaway counts are very often the person who simply has the puck the most. Weegar for example only had 46 takeaways but 75 giveaways. This does not reflect how strong his defensive game is at all considering he is one of the best 2-way defenders in the league. To me the important note there is that he lead all our defensemen in takeaways (albeit Hanifin probably would have had more if he wasn't traded), this proves he is effective at causing turnovers. On the other hand his giveaway count says to me how much we relied on him as a playmaker and QB. His production from last season also in a way proves that.

As for Kuzmenko, as you said he was very sheltered with his deployment, as was Kadri. This is also quite obvious when looking at their QoC on PuckIQ. Kadri and Kuzmenko only spent about ~27% of their total 5v5 ice time against elite competition, whereas on the other hand guys like Backlund, Mangiapane, and Lindholm all played north of 40% of their ice time vs elite competition. I just have a hard time seeing us being able to deploy those 2 in such favorable positions again this year. Assuming we move Zary to center it will probably be in our best interest to shelter his line more than Kadri's or at least split the difference. As for Kuzmenko's takeaway count, it reminds me a lot of Nylander. In the offensive and Neutral zone Kuzmenko can for turnovers by simply being aggressive, but he was simply not that effective in our own end, hence his -8 in a 29 game span.

I do think @Double Dion is a bit wrong about Mantha though. He is very much like Mangiapane in his defensive game but his main issue is he lacks commitment and drive. Unlike Mangiapane who had an endless motor, Mantha is well known for his lackadaisical effort levels.

 

[hockeyguy0022]

I'm very excited to see what the flames get at the deadline for Vladar. if he can get back to 1B like with markstrom before the injuries, he will likely be one of the most valuable players at the deadline.

Teams already have goalie problems (Vancouver) The list of somewhat established guys out there isn't good.. kinkaid, dell, jones, tokarski, maybe kaskisuio if you want to gamble.

Should be Vladar and Gibson that contenders are looking for. I'm sure the Canucks are calling right now.

Goalie market for anyone reasonably steady above 26 years old is very weak.

 

[Figgy44]

What??? The new d-men are 100% untalented. Outside of Andersson and Weegar none of our d-men should be in the NHL.

Huh? I'd say we have like 5 guys solidly in the 5th-7th dman range. They are NHLers, but not second pairing calibre. It'll be interesting to see what they do in a rotating 2A and 2B pairing requirement situation like Sutter used to roll with the Z - Gudbranson 3rd pairing.

I'll agree it's not enough talent as an overall D corps, but I disagree that everyone outside of Andersson and Weegar are not NHL calibre.

 

[Nanuuk]

Seravelli says Flames are signing D Tyson Barrie to a PTO.

 

[MM917]

Bahl is an NHL defenceman all day, ceiling is in question but to call him not an NHL player is just flatly wrong.

Miromanov is an interesting case. You can very much make the argument that were he not on such a stacked contender (Vegas) his NHL experience to this point would be much higher. The question remains if he is an NHL player in the long run, but to say one way or the other now is too early.

Bean + Pachal, I will grant you are 6/7 guys and not much else and on most teams are spares.

Fair enough with Bahl, he isn't good but harsh to not say he is NHLer he can be a 6th d-man on average to poor teams.

Miromanov was a disaster defensively last season and doesn't have the offensive ability to ignore he lack of defensive awareness or ability.

 

[Lunatik]

Since the tragedy of Thursday night/Friday morning my excitement for the coming season has completely evaporated.

 

[Mobiandi]

Since the tragedy of Thursday night/Friday morning my excitement for the coming season has completely evaporated.

In light of what happened, I really couldn’t care less about Flames hockey, let alone the NHL and I’m not sure when that will change

 

[Coffees]

Flames will not be bottom 5 but they will win the 1st overall pick this year

 

[Rubi]

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Flames will not be bottom 5 but they will win the 1st overall pick this year

I like our chances at finishing 28th in league standings this season, from 24th last season. A year without Markstrom, Hanifin, Tanev, and no Kylington to help fill one of the D holes, will have a huge impact.

 

[Yepthatsme]

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I like our chances at finishing 28th in league standings this season, from 24th last season. A year without Markstrom, Hanifin, Tanev, and no Kylington to help fill one of the D holes, will have a huge impact.

Last season, to be one of the 3 worst teams, you had to be bottom 5 in both goals for and against. Our chances at that are slim to none so bottom 3 seems unlikely.

To be one of the 5 worst teams, you needed to be bottom 5 in one of those categories, and bottom 10 in the other. Our chances there are iffy, but I’d say they have a slim to possible chance of it happening if legitimately everything goes wrong.

To be one of the 10 worst teams, you needed to fall into 1 of 2 categories. Either be a below average team in one ranking and a bottom 10 in the other (where we fell), or be an above average team in one and bottom 5 in the other. This is where I think we reasonably fall, and expect us to probably pick from 6-10 in the upcoming draft.

After that, I say it’s about as likely as picking in the 4-5 range that we are outside the bottom 10 teams. This would likely be due to our offense finishing around 12-14th in the league and our defense only being bad (bottom 10).

So based on last season’s standings, our floor looks to start roughly at about the 5th overall pick.

 

[Figgy44]

Flames will not be bottom 5 but they will win the 1st overall pick this year

If you could wish a successful Taylor Hall trade upon us, that would be awesome. Thank you.

 

[Volica]

Last season, to be one of the 3 worst teams, you had to be bottom 5 in both goals for and against. Our chances at that are slim to none so bottom 3 seems unlikely.

To be one of the 5 worst teams, you needed to be bottom 5 in one of those categories, and bottom 10 in the other. Our chances there are iffy, but I’d say they have a slim to possible chance of it happening if legitimately everything goes wrong.

To be one of the 10 worst teams, you needed to fall into 1 of 2 categories. Either be a below average team in one ranking and a bottom 10 in the other (where we fell), or be an above average team in one and bottom 5 in the other. This is where I think we reasonably fall, and expect us to probably pick from 6-10 in the upcoming draft.

After that, I say it’s about as likely as picking in the 4-5 range that we are outside the bottom 10 teams. This would likely be due to our offense finishing around 12-14th in the league and our defense only being bad (bottom 10).

So based on last season’s standings, our floor looks to start roughly at about the 5th overall pick.

<Looks at that defence we're about to trot out nightly>
That's pretty floor level amigo.

This team had a sub .400 win % after the deadline. That's what this group is facing this year.

 

[Some Other Flame]

Most if not all of the teams that finished below the Flames made varying degrees of improvements to their roster during the off season.

The Flames meanwhile traded their number one goalie, signed an inconsistent middle six forward and some meaningless depth. And now the word is apparently that it's only a matter of when, not if Andersson is moved.

Short of something ridiculous happening, the Flames are primed for their first top 3 pick in franchise history.

 

[KodakGinger]

Don’t think there’s any doubt with this roster that we select top 6 and get a shot at one of the top 5 centres in the draft. Good year to have a C heavy top 5.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Most if not all of the teams that finished below the Flames made varying degrees of improvements to their roster during the off season.

The Flames meanwhile traded their number one goalie, signed an inconsistent middle six forward and some meaningless depth. And now the word is apparently that it's only a matter of when, not if Andersson is moved.

Short of something ridiculous happening, the Flames are primed for their first top 3 pick in franchise history.

Chicago, San Jose, and Colombus are absolutely guaranteed to be worse than us. Full stop. Those 3 combined have 8 players who scored 20 last year, with 3 of those names doing it on top offensive teams and not with them. We have 6.

San Jose’ goalies are Blackwood and Askarov. Chicago is Mrazek and Brossoit. Columbus is Merzlikins and Tarasov. This is one of the few groups our goaltending tandem doesn’t stand out from. Columbus may be the only group who doesn’t have just as large of a group as no names as our defensive core, and Weegar is the best defenseman out of any of those teams.

Serious question, if we added Bertuzzi and Teuravainen, or Toffoli and Ceci, would you consider us a very improved team primed to climb the standings? The top 3 is very well protected, as I just pointed out with how bad of a team you have to be to enter that group in my previous post.

 

[hockeyguy0022]

Flames should flip a prospect or two and some picks for zegras.

Minimal contract left, can see if he develops, have the money for long term If wanted, if not can flip for a pick. basically 0 risk, all upside.

Still young, will be 26-27/prime when the new rink is ready.

poor mans Mitch Marner, with upside. No risk for the flames basically.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Chicago, San Jose, and Colombus are absolutely guaranteed to be worse than us. Full stop. Those 3 combined have 8 players who scored 20 last year, with 3 of those names doing it on top offensive teams and not with them. We have 6.

San Jose’ goalies are Blackwood and Askarov. Chicago is Mrazek and Brossoit. Columbus is Merzlikins and Tarasov. This is one of the few groups our goaltending tandem doesn’t stand out from. Columbus may be the only group who doesn’t have just as large of a group as no names as our defensive core, and Weegar is the best defenseman out of any of those teams.

Serious question, if we added Bertuzzi and Teuravainen, or Toffoli and Ceci, would you consider us a very improved team primed to climb the standings? The top 3 is very well protected, as I just pointed out with how bad of a team you have to be to enter that group in my previous post.

San Jose? 100% they will be worse. They will definitely score more than last year between Celebrini, Smith, and Toffoli, but overall their D-core is still quite bad.

Columbus will be like Anaheim, their success now depends entirely on the young guys taking that next step. I would also say that it depends on how well they rally behind the loss of Johnny Hockey, but I would expect them to finish below us.

Chicago I wouldn't be shocked to see them finish below us but I would say they are more likely to finish above us. Their D-core is far deeper than ours, they essentially added 3 top 6 wingers with the return of Hall, along with a solid middle 6 2-way guy in Mikheyev. It's well within the realm of possibility that Bedard hits 100 points this season. Not to mention Brossoit is a big upgrade on Soderblom.

 

[Yepthatsme]

San Jose? 100% they will be worse. They will definitely score more than last year between Celebrini, Smith, and Toffoli, but overall their D-core is still quite bad.

Columbus will be like Anaheim, their success now depends entirely on the young guys taking that next step. I would also say that it depends on how well they rally behind the loss of Johnny Hockey, but I would expect them to finish below us.

Chicago I wouldn't be shocked to see them finish below us but I would say they are more likely to finish above us. Their D-core is far deeper than ours, they essentially added 3 top 6 wingers with the return of Hall, along with a solid middle 6 2-way guy in Mikheyev. It's well within the realm of possibility that Bedard hits 100 points this season. Not to mention Brossoit is a big upgrade on Soderblom.

Success depending on young guys leads to a lack of success, this is a fact HFboards can’t comprehend. Ask Ottawa and Buffalo how relying solely on youth in key roles has faired for their teams. Columbus (and Anaheim while we are at it) thrusting even more U24 players into key roles will be a detriment not a boon.

Also if Bertuzzi and this stage of his career Hall are top 6 wingers, we have roughly 6 of them on our roster. Bertuzzi potted 21 lining up with Tavares and Nylander, and Hall wasn’t even on pace for 50 points 2 years ago and is well passed his prime after injuries unfortunately. I think your right Bedard has a chance at 100 and will probably drag one of Bertuzzi or Teravainen to 60 points along the way, but the other will have to anchor a second line on their own which is terrifying. Teravainen is legitimately their second best forward, that’s still an embarrassing group.

That deeper blue line part is not true, it’s just weirdly old.
Chicago:
Vlasic •2.5 xGA/60
Jones •2.7 xGA/60
Brodie* •2.77 xGA/60
Martinez* •2.81xGA/60
Murphy •2.9 xGA/60
Korchinski •3.13 xGA/60

Pachal •2.21 xGA/60
Miromanov •2.23 xGA/60
Bahl •2.39 xGA/60
Weegar •2.64 xGA/60
Bean •2.83 xGA/60
Andersson 2.88 xGA/60

You just fell victim to a pretty classic “I recognize more names on the other blue line”, as far as results go our blue line depth is far superior. For example, TJ Brodie was a healthy scratch for Toronto’s whole playoffs if you’re wondering how he’s doing currently.

 

[Lunatik]

You just fell victim to a pretty classic “I recognize more names on the other blue line”

and you just fell victim to a pretty classic "analytics re the be all and end all"

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Success depending on young guys leads to a lack of success, this is a fact HFboards can’t comprehend. Ask Ottawa and Buffalo how relying solely on youth in key roles has faired for their teams. Columbus (and Anaheim while we are at it) thrusting even more U24 players into key roles will be a detriment not a boon.

Also if Bertuzzi and this stage of his career Hall are top 6 wingers, we have roughly 6 of them on our roster. Bertuzzi potted 21 lining up with Tavares and Nylander, and Hall wasn’t even on pace for 50 points 2 years ago and is well passed his prime after injuries unfortunately. I think your right Bedard has a chance at 100 and will probably drag one of Bertuzzi or Teravainen to 60 points along the way, but the other will have to anchor a second line on their own which is terrifying. Teravainen is legitimately their second best forward, that’s still an embarrassing group.

That deeper blue line part is not true, it’s just weirdly old.
Chicago:
Vlasic •2.5 xGA/60
Jones •2.7 xGA/60
Brodie* •2.77 xGA/60
Martinez* •2.81xGA/60
Murphy •2.9 xGA/60
Korchinski •3.13 xGA/60

Pachal •2.21 xGA/60
Miromanov •2.23 xGA/60
Bahl •2.39 xGA/60
Weegar •2.64 xGA/60
Bean •2.83 xGA/60
Andersson 2.88 xGA/60

You just fell victim to a pretty classic “I recognize more names on the other blue line”, as far as results go our blue line depth is far superior. For example, TJ Brodie was a healthy scratch for Toronto’s whole playoffs if you’re wondering how he’s doing currently.

I'm not arguing the youth thing for Anaheim and Columbus. What is factual about them is that they have added a bunch of young high potential players to their roster and we have not. So like I said I expect Columbus to finish below us I would not call it a guarantee by any means. A full season of Werenski for them could vastly change things for example, as he is a top 10 caliber defenseman in the league when healthy.

Kuzmenko and Huberdeau are only winger on our roster that even comes close to Bertuzzi's or Hall's caliber. Both of them will get prime power play minutes too, something Bertuzzi didn't get in Toronto.

Your take on their blue line is awful too. All you are doing is looking at 1 stat and comparing them. You don't even bother trying to factor in the difference in situations. Last year when Bedard wasn't on the ice Chicago had next to zero offensive pressure so they were constantly caved in in their own end.

For example despite all this Vlasic was statistically the best defensive dman in the league last year. And he was a rookie. Korchinski was also a rookie and will certainly improve this year, plus they will have Murphy back who missed the majority of last season with an injury. And though Brodie played like crap last year he was one of the top defensive dmen in the league just 1 year prior. Even if he can't reform that Levshunov is right there ready to take a spot

I didn't fall victim to that I simply know the sport better than you