Thoughts on Crosby's completely cherry-picked best stretch of hockey

[WarriorofTime]

When from #2 to 10 Crosby separation was higher ? If so why ? For what interest us, Hockey Reference not being interested in scoring distribution can be a significant flaw and that can change fast, 05-06 and 06-07 was a different league than the 2011 league which was different than the 2021 bubble one.

While far from perfect, you will completely mess up your own methodology if you try and hyper-focus on every super niche, season/era specific factor that could impact an individual's scoring and you'd always rather be pretty darn close to perfect than mess up the whole methodology trying to be absolutely perfect.

 

[MadLuke]

While far from perfect, you will completely mess up your own methodology if you try and hyper-focus on every super niche, season/era specific factor that could impact an individual's scoring and you'd always rather be pretty darn close to perfect than mess up the whole methodology trying to be absolutely perfect.

If you compare the player with the top scoring peers, you do not have to focus on any factor, they would affect most of them.

Say coaching play their first line 27-28 minutes in a era and in another one it is 18-21, if they affect scoring distribution among stars versus third liners, when you compare someone scoring to the average top scorer players in the league it will be taking into account, because they to had that more or less playtime.

Say if 22% of the points goes to defenceman in an era, vs only 12% in another, that will be taken into account has well for the top scorer in a way that just looking at team total goals won't, if the number of assists by goals matter, will be baking in.

So it goes for PPO-overtime rules, average first liner or so scoring as the metric will bake it in.

The reason people use the comparison to their peers method is to have to focus on absolutely nothing details wise, it will be baking-in the competition result.

Trying to be perfect would be a foul endeavor here true and that not the goal, it is only trying to be better in obvious ways without being worst in any way that come to mind (outside being more complicated to code, which is not nothing, open the door to mistake, require more work, etc...)

After that, there is all the talk about how good the competition was, but that not what adjusting is about-trying to do (or can have much chance to do, that would be extremely hard), when you adjust scoring for the 1944 seasons you let that part for after.

 

[WarriorofTime]

If you compare the player with the top scoring peers, you do not have to focus on any factor, they would affect most of them.

Say coaching play their first line 27-28 minutes in a era and in another one it is 18-21, if they affect scoring distribution among stars versus third liners, when you compare someone scoring to the average top scorer players in the league it will be taking into account, because they to had that more or less playtime.

Average first liner runs into a lot of issues when actually trying to construct a reliable methodology. How teams use their first line is going to vary a lot by team with some teams trying to load up their best 5 man unit more and others trying a more balanced method. The "1st line" players are going to vary quite a bit when dealing with injuries and players getting move up and down the lineup over the course of a single season/longer sample. Obviously if you are trying to construct across a longer sample of eras, the top 10/20/30 method falls apart pretty quick where a top 20 guy is an average-ish "go to guy" in the current day versus a 2nd line guy in an O6 guy, but not even factoring in a thing like talent pool which we'll just ignore for convenience sake.

If there's a reliable methodology out there that can get to what you're saying, I am somewhat open, I just don't a reliable way to make it necessarily better than to just era adjust scoring (with or without any specific roster-adjustment, which I'm fairly agnostic towards).

How any of that relates to a Crosby-McDavid discussion, players that played in an NHL that is more substantially similar than different feels like hand-wringing.

 

[Michael Farkas]

NHL didn't start tracking time on ice until 1998-99 IIRC

NHL didn't start tracking lots of stuff (ice time didn't become official/public until 1998), doesn't mean that others (including myself) didn't. Plus, we have a pretty good estimate of ice times going way back that has correlated pretty highly with manually tracked ice times. So, again, we do. Ice times over the last 100 years, categorically, aren't a huge mystery to this community.

 

[MadLuke]

lot of issues when actually trying to construct a reliable methodology

Yes (probably why it would be hard for something like HR to change, anything proposed would have other issues and debated), but a lot of them would not apply to the Crosby-McDavid discussion

I did try a quick method, using the top canadian scorer average, grew the numbers used over time, calibrated to peak at 18 for the last season of the 06 to avoid going over the number of first liner in the league.

Adjusted point - using elite Canadians player scoring

With different previous at adjusting players season, the latest attempt has been the following with those goals: 1) Only use the top players in the league to automatically adjust for scoring distribution change over time, if rules change, style of play, power play habit make scoring more...

forums.hfboards.com

season	Number of Elite Canadians	Average (pro-rated 82 games)
19261927​	10​	55​
19271928​	11​	60​
19281929​	11​	47​
19291930​	11​	104​
19301931​	11​	77​
19311932​	12​	75​
19321933​	12​	68​
19331934​	12​	67​
19341935​	12​	74​
19351936​	13​	61​
19361937​	13​	63​
19371938​	13​	67​
19381939​	14​	66​
19391940​	14​	65​
19401941​	14​	72​
19411942​	15​	75​
19421943​	15​	98​
19431944​	15​	110​
19441945​	15​	92​
19451946​	15​	75​
19461947​	15​	76​
19471948​	15​	70​
19481949​	15​	65​
19491950​	15​	65​
19501951​	16​	65​
19511952​	16​	65​
19521953​	16​	60​
19531954​	16​	60​
19541955​	16​	67​
19551956​	16​	70​
19561957​	16​	71​
19571958​	16​	73​
19581959​	15​	81​
19591960​	15​	79​
19601961​	15​	81​
19611962​	15​	77​
19621963​	16​	77​
19631964​	16​	75​
19641965​	17​	68​
19651966​	17​	75​
19661967​	18​	66​
19671968​	19​	76​
19681969​	19​	87​
19691970​	20​	78​
19701971​	20​	87​
19711972​	21​	91​
19721973​	22​	96​
19731974​	23​	88​
19741975​	24​	97​
19751976​	25​	99​
19761977​	26​	90​
19771978​	27​	88​
19781979​	27​	94​
19791980​	28​	97​
19801981​	29​	99​
19811982​	30​	107​
19821983​	31​	96​
19831984​	31​	102​
19841985​	31​	101​
19851986​	32​	99​
19861987​	32​	91​
19871988​	32​	97​
19881989​	32​	99​
19891990​	32​	100​
19901991​	31​	94​
19911992​	31​	91​
19921993​	31​	100​
19931994​	30​	89​
19941995​	30​	80​
19951996​	29​	89​
19961997​	29​	76​
19971998​	29​	66​
19981999​	28​	66​
19992000​	28​	68​
20002001​	27​	75​
20012002​	27​	69​
20022003​	27​	71​
20032004​	27​	67​
20042005​
20052006​	27​	82​
20062007​	27​	84​
20072008​	27​	76​
20082009​	27​	77​
20092010​	27​	73​
20102011​	28​	71​
20112012​	28​	71​
20122013​	28​	76​
20132014​	28​	71​
20142015​	29​	67​
20152016​	29​	65​
20162017​	29​	65​
20172018​	29​	75​
20182019​	29​	81​
20192020​	28​	74​
20202021​	28​	77​

Top 20 seasons at the time using that method looked like this:

players	season	Season Length	Game played	Points	Elite Can average points	adjusted points	PPG	Adjusted ppg
Wayne Gretzky	19851986	80	80	215	98.9	215.0	2.69	2.62
Wayne Gretzky	19841985	80	80	208	101	203.7	2.6	2.48
Wayne Gretzky	19821983	80	80	196	96.3	201.3	2.45	2.45
Wayne Gretzky	19831984	80	74	205	101.6	199.6	2.77	2.63
Wayne Gretzky	19861987	80	79	183	90.9	199.1	2.32	2.46
Mario Lemieux	19881989	80	76	199	99.3	198.2	2.62	2.54
Wayne Gretzky	19811982	80	80	212	106.5	196.9	2.65	2.4
Connor McDavid	20202021	56	56	105	76.8	193.2	1.88	2.36
Jaromir Jagr	19981999	82	81	127	66	185.7	1.57	2.29
Gordie Howe	19521953	70	70	95	60.4	177.8	1.36	2.17
Phil Esposito	19701971	78	78	152	87.1	177.0	1.95	2.16
Mario Lemieux	19951996	82	70	161	88.6	175.3	2.3	2.5
Wayne Gretzky	19901991	80	78	163	93.9	171.7	2.09	2.15
Mario Lemieux	19871988	80	77	168	97	171.3	2.18	2.17
Leon Draisaitl	20192020	70	71	110	74.2	167.6	1.55	2.01
Wayne Gretzky	19881989	80	78	168	99.3	167.3	2.15	2.09
Phil Esposito	19731974	78	78	145	88	167.1	1.86	2.04
Stan Mikita	19661967	70	70	97	66.4	165.1	1.39	2.01
Wayne Gretzky	19801981	80	80	164	98.9	164.0	2.05	2
Jaromir Jagr	19951996	82	82	149	88.6	162.3	1.82	1.98

players that played in an NHL that is more substantially similar than different feels like hand-wringing.

At this rate we will have 26% more power play goals this year than in 2011-2012, 3v3 started at 2015-2016

 

[daver]

Generally speaking, the OP is comparing the PPGs of the very best offensive players in the league all of whom are performing under the same conditions (low or high PPOs, DPE or higher scoring, etc...). This should make the % gap in PPG a very good indicator of a player's relative dominance. Of course deployment, quality of team and quality of linemates can be considered but when talking about GOAT talent, these become tiebreaking level metrics/narratives rather than substantive arguments that places one player on another tier. TOI is irrelevant.

IMO, both Crosby and McDavid have shown to produce regardless meaning their numbers speak for themselves. Both have had era best ES and PP scoring seasons; there is really no reason to differentiate the two.

All this being said, the eye test and common sense sees Crosby's per game production, relative to his peers, as being very similar to McDavid's. If "adjusting" using league GPG puts one clearly ahead of the other, then that is more evidence of the flaws of "adjusting".

 

[WarriorofTime]

All this being said, the eye test and common sense sees Crosby's per game production, relative to his peers, as being very similar to McDavid's. If "adjusting" using league GPG puts one clearly ahead of the other, then that is more evidence of the flaws of "adjusting".

Holy conclusory statement!

 

[McPoyle]

NHL didn't start tracking lots of stuff (ice time didn't become official/public until 1998), doesn't mean that others (including myself) didn't. Plus, we have a pretty good estimate of ice times going way back that has correlated pretty highly with manually tracked ice times. So, again, we do. Ice times over the last 100 years, categorically, aren't a huge mystery to this community.

Is this historic TOI tabulated anywhere online? Would be interesting to look at.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Is this historic TOI tabulated anywhere online? Would be interesting to look at.

The eTOI spreadsheet is around here somewhere. @seventieslord probably carries it around with him, maybe he has it handy?

 

[daver]

Holy conclusory statement!

Crosby and McDavid were statistically even through the halfway mark of their respective 6th seasons.

Crosby got concussed and leaves a huge question mark for that season and, unfortunately, for the next two, although 2013 is pretty close to being conclusive with him almost winning the Art Ross despite missing 1/4 if the season. He then wins the Art Ross by the biggest % over 2nd place in 20 years but a closer look sees that he wasn't quite at the level he was in the three preceding seasons.

McDavid plays 15 more games in his 6th season and has his best season statistically albeit with some consideration for the revised COVID affected league setup. His Art Ross win in '21/22 is on par with Crosby's Art Ross wins but not on the level of Crosby's peak level of play. Last year is up there with the best Non Big 4 seasons all-time; a clear advantage over Crosby but not necessarily a slam dunk indicator he is the better player offensively. I.e. he has the "greater" peak season like OV is arguably the "greatest" goalscorer but is not necessarily considered the "best".

 

[daver]

Checked to see if McDavid's numbers should be changed but the stretch in the OP is still the best despite his PPG increasing in the past season. Kucherov's and MacKinnon's increase cut into his PPG dominance.

During his peak (293 games) he is 13% ahead of 2nd place and 31% of the avg. PPG of the next ten best PPGs.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[GreatGonzo]

Generally speaking, the OP is comparing the PPGs of the very best offensive players in the league all of whom are performing under the same conditions (low or high PPOs, DPE or higher scoring, etc...). This should make the % gap in PPG a very good indicator of a player's relative dominance. Of course deployment, quality of team and quality of linemates can be considered but when talking about GOAT talent, these become tiebreaking level metrics/narratives rather than substantive arguments that places one player on another tier. TOI is irrelevant.

IMO, both Crosby and McDavid have shown to produce regardless meaning their numbers speak for themselves. Both have had era best ES and PP scoring seasons; there is really no reason to differentiate the two.

All this being said, the eye test and common sense sees Crosby's per game production, relative to his peers, as being very similar to McDavid's. If "adjusting" using league GPG puts one clearly ahead of the other, then that is more evidence of the flaws of "adjusting".

Ah yes, the “eye test” and “common sense.” Two things no one can disprove but can still be used as leverage to make Crosby look better…

 

[VanIslander]

Pop the cherry.

Honor consistency, resiliency, productivity.

The Howes, Gretzkys, Bourques, Messiers...

The Orr, Lemieux, Crosby, Lindros narrative is worthwhile but it's about UNDERaccomplishing, about POTENTIAL more than actual production. What if...?

 

[GreatGonzo]

Crosby and McDavid were statistically even through the halfway mark of their respective 6th seasons.

Crosby got concussed and leaves a huge question mark for that season and, unfortunately, for the next two, although 2013 is pretty close to being conclusive with him almost winning the Art Ross despite missing 1/4 if the season. He then wins the Art Ross by the biggest % over 2nd place in 20 years but a closer look sees that he wasn't quite at the level he was in the three preceding seasons.

McDavid plays 15 more games in his 6th season and has his best season statistically albeit with some consideration for the revised COVID affected league setup. His Art Ross win in '21/22 is on par with Crosby's Art Ross wins but not on the level of Crosby's peak level of play. Last year is up there with the best Non Big 4 seasons all-time; a clear advantage over Crosby but not necessarily a slam dunk indicator he is the better player offensively. I.e. he has the "greater" peak season like OV is arguably the "greatest" goalscorer but is not necessarily considered the "best".

I mean if we break down McDavids ‘22 in the amount of games Crosby had during those 3 seasons, he’s actually very similar to peak..

Crosby in 2011: 41-32-34-66
McDavid in 2022: 41-23-37-60

Crosby in 2012: 22-8-29–37
McDavid in 2022: 22-16-26-42

Crosby in 2013: 36-15-41-56
McDavid in 2022: 36-19-36-55

I don’t see how he was no where near peak Crosby. Seems like he kept up with his level of play pretty much the entire year.

 

[Michael Farkas]

Ah yes, the “eye test” and “common sense.” Two things no one can disprove but can still be used as leverage to make Crosby look better…

The "eye test" is easily "disprovable". That's what the entire hockey world runs on. Video is the largest dataset we have...

 

[Michael Farkas]

The Orr, Lemieux, Crosby, Lindros narrative is worthwhile but it's about UNDERaccomplishing, about POTENTIAL more than actual production. What if...?

Both Lemieux and Crosby are top 10 all-time in points. Bobby Orr retired as the highest scoring defenseman of all time.

 

[VanIslander]

Both Lemieux and Crosby are top 10 all-time in points. Bobby Orr retired as the highest scoring defenseman of all time.

Indeed!

But they weren't 9 or 99. Not even the same tier.

 

[JackSlater]

Indeed!

But they weren't 9 or 99. Not even the same tier.

You've ranked Orr over Howe. I don't know what new information there would be over the last few years, decades after they each retired, to suddenly put Orr on a lesser tier.

 

[VanIslander]

We live in a post-truth world.
(EDIT: Heck, we even dunno our own stuff several years past. Humans ain't AI.)

 

[jigglysquishy]

We live in a post-truth world.

How do you not get that your votes are all public?

Voting Record - VanIslander, Mike Farkas, tony d

VoterRankPlayerPoints 1 2 VanIslander1Wayne Gretzky1201Gordie Howe1Bobby Hull VanIslander2Bobby Orr1192Wayne Gretzky2Ray Bourque VanIslander3Gordie Howe1183Mario Lemieux3Dominik Hasek VanIslander4Mario Lemieux1174Bobby Orr4Patrick Roy VanIslander5Bobby Hull1165Bobby Hull5Maurice Richard...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[VanIslander]

Orr over Howe?
Cyclone Taylor as the 7th greatest player ever?

... clearly in that pre-COVID era (the post you cite was from several years ago) i was about peak more than consistency.

I guess they all should be ingredients in the soup of greatness!

 

[DitchMarner]

Orr over Howe?
Cyclone Taylor as the 7th greatest player ever?

... clearly in that pre-COVID era (the post you cite was from several years ago) i was about peak more than consistency.

I guess they all should be ingredients in the soup of greatness!

I mean, Orr was consistently great. He just didn't play that long compared to Howe. Putting Howe ahead is fine, but I don't think he was more "consistent."

 

[VanIslander]

1. Gordie Howe was top 5 in NHL scoring for 20 straight seasons! ... take a second to let that sink in.

2. My opinions have changed since my youth. The lesson i've learned over the years is durability and consistency and reliability means a lot in success in life.

 

[DitchMarner]

1. Gordie Howe was top 5 in NHL scoring for 20 straight seasons! ... take a second to let that sink in.

2. My opinions have changed since my youth. The lesson i've learned over the years is durability and consistency and reliability means a lot in success in life.

I know. I'm familiar with the man's career. He played at a very high level for a long time (about twice as long as Orr). But Orr was extremely consistent himself. Howe beats him handily in longevity and durability/availability, And yes, those things do matter.

 

[VanIslander]

To be very clear:

Gordie Howe surpassed Orr's career games played total in 1957 and since won 3 Hart trophies, 8-time THEREAFTER AGAIN finalist. In 1957.

His hockey EXCELLENCE was twice as long, his hockey pro career (WHA big money; think Saudi golf): three times as long as Orr!

9 & 99 are in a different zip code.