Thoughts on Crosby's completely cherry-picked best stretch of hockey

[Overrated]

Inspired by the Best 82 game stretch thread, this is Crosby's best stretch of hockey which took place between Nov. 28, 2009 (after shaking off his Cup hangover) to Nov. 8, 2014 (before a viral illness kicked in).

NHL Stats

Despite playing 42% less games than the scoring leader during this stretch, he is only 3% behind in points.

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.06. Crosby's PPG of 1.50 is 41% better.

For comparison,

Here is McDavid's completely cherry-picked best stretch of hockey over a similar amount of time:

NHL Stats

McDavid is the scoring leader by 16%.

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.19. McDavid's PPG of 1.49 is 25% better.

Here is Jagr's (with Mario in 95/96 and 96/97):

NHL Stats

Jagr is the leading scorer by 16%

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.21. Jagr's PPG of 1.56 is 29% better.

Here is Jagr's without Mario in the lineup:

NHL Stats

Jagr is the leading scorer by 19%

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.16. Jagr's PPG of 1.48 is 28% better.


At the end of the day, pretty similar numbers although hard to not ignore Crosby's more dominant PPG gap completely.

Very impressive career start for McDavid. Crosby's PPG gap over a similar amount of games also from his 2nd season onwards was 32% but similar to the other stretch, he is not the points leader due to missed games.

Why are you not comparing it to Jagr's stretch from later on that you yourself mentioned in the earlier thread?
Most points over 82 consecutive games

 

[daver]

Inspired by the Best 82 game stretch thread, this is Crosby's best stretch of hockey which took place between Nov. 28, 2009 (after shaking off his Cup hangover) to Nov. 8, 2014 (before a viral illness kicked in).

NHL Stats

Despite playing 42% less games than the scoring leader during this stretch, he is only 3% behind in points.

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.06. Crosby's PPG of 1.50 is 41% better.

For comparison,

Here is McDavid's completely cherry-picked best stretch of hockey over a similar amount of time:

NHL Stats

McDavid is the scoring leader by 16%.

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.19. McDavid's PPG of 1.49 is 25% better.

Here is Jagr's (with Mario in 95/96 and 96/97):

NHL Stats

Jagr is the leading scorer by 16%

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.21. Jagr's PPG of 1.56 is 29% better.

Here is Jagr's without Mario in the lineup:

NHL Stats

Jagr is the leading scorer by 19%

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.16. Jagr's PPG of 1.48 is 28% better.


At the end of the day, pretty similar numbers although hard to not ignore Crosby's more dominant PPG gap completely.

Very impressive career start for McDavid. Crosby's PPG gap over a similar amount of games also from his 2nd season onwards was 32% but similar to the other stretch, he is not the points leader due to missed games.

Updated McDavid's numbers:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

McDavid is the scoring leader by 13% (over Draisaitl)

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.26. McDavid's PPG of 1.62 is 28% better.

 

[authentic]

Crosby is pretty good.

However, level of top end competition in those stretches I'd rank:

#1. McDavid
#2. Jagr
#3. Crosby

So - I think that helps him quite a bit. Obviously Malkin/Ovechkin are great - but that stretch includes Ovi's down years, and some pretty inconsistent ones for Malkin, and no one else really stands out.
It's not that dissimilar an exercise than looking at margins of victories Howe had in his peak for art ross - great numbers and all, but top end competition is a bit weaker in those years so #s look a bit better than they were.

I think there's an argument for Crosby being better than McDavid/Jagr in this comparison, but it's definitely not by as big as a gap as the numbers here indicate with PPG over #2.

Perhaps there’s a reason why the two of the eras next best players couldn’t string together consistently elite performances in a league that was tougher to score in? I don’t think the competition was much different really.

 

[MadLuke]

There was a moment that the idea that Brad Marchant was a better competition than the big 3 of Malkin-Ovechkin-Stamkos would have sounded quite funny, maybe not anymore (at least on that line, he could be really up there has one of the best left wing in history).

Separation between old Malin versus peak Malkin could be more direct (Crosby separation from the better younger Malkin look favorable).

I feel The obvious difference is Crosby missed game more than weaker competition

 

[golfortennis1]

There was a moment that the idea that Brad Marchant was a better competition than the big 3 of Malkin-Ovechkin-Stamkos would have sounded quite funny, maybe not anymore (at least on that line, he could be really up there has one of the best left wing in history).

Separation between old Malin versus peak Malkin could be more direct (Crosby separation from the better younger Malkin look favorable).

I feel The obvious difference is Crosby missed game more than weaker competition

Not necessarily relevant to this thread(but the bolded made me think of this), but I believe the Penguins are by far the hardest hit team by injuries when it comes to salary on the injured list. People like to say "every team has injuries", but there is a reason guys aren't paid the same amount of money. Man-games lost are one thing, but when your top players are the ones contributing them, it's a bigger deal than just "every team deals with this."

 

[daver]

There was a moment that the idea that Brad Marchant was a better competition than the big 3 of Malkin-Ovechkin-Stamkos would have sounded quite funny, maybe not anymore (at least on that line, he could be really up there has one of the best left wing in history).

Separation between old Malin versus peak Malkin could be more direct (Crosby separation from the better younger Malkin look favorable).

I feel The obvious difference is Crosby missed game more than weaker competition

The timeframe includes Malkin's best season in 11/12. Yes, he had injuries himself but his PPG dominance vs. the field during this timeframe was similar to his PPG dominance vs. the field from 07/08 to 08/09.

But one player should not change too much when you are using nine players as a comparison. Feel free to expand the comparison sample to the Top 20 or 50 scorers.

 

[daver]

Updated OP for McDavid - Oct. 16th, 2018 to April, 8th, 2023

McDavid is the scoring leader by 13% (over Draisaitl)

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.28. McDavid's PPG of 1.65 is 29% better.

 

[daver]

Updated OP for McDavid to reflect a similar amount of games to Crosby's stretch.

McDavid is the scoring leader by 11% (over Draisaitl)

The average PPG of other Top Ten PPGs during this time (min. 200 games) is 1.30. McDavid's PPG of 1.73 is 34% better.

 

[authentic]

I still wonder what a fully healthy peak Crosby would score today. Could he get 150 like McDavid? Or would he fall somewhere closer to 135-40?

 

[MadLuke]

How the powerplay goes can be an important variable here (sure they would be a major factor on it, but still, you have limited control on PPO)

2017-2018 McDavid scored more even strength points than the 150 pts McDavid (2019, 2022 has well)

2022-2023 was below average at even strength for McDavid which is a bit wild, only in 2021-2022 did he had a lower pts per 60 minutes pace, bit more luck and maybe he break the 2 ppg with that historic powerplay.

 

[daver]

How the powerplay goes can be an important variable here (sure they would be a major factor on it, but still, you have limited control on PPO)

2017-2018 McDavid scored more even strength points than the 150 pts McDavid (2019, 2022 has well)

2022-2023 was below average at even strength for McDavid which is a bit wild, only in 2021-2022 did he had a lower pts per 60 minutes pace, bit more luck and maybe he break the 2 ppg with that historic powerplay.

Wasn't the PP% in 22/23 above average though? Couldn't you say he had luck on the PP last year?

And Crosby's timeframe was partially during DPE 2.0 where parity becomes more prevalent. IMO, it is easier for superstar offensive talent to separate themselves from the pack in higher scoring environments.

 

[WalterLundy]

I still wonder what a fully healthy peak Crosby would score today. Could he get 150 like McDavid? Or would he fall somewhere closer to 135-40?

Very interesting to think about. I know McDavid had 167 points in 84 games from
April 20th 2022 to March 3rd 2023 including the playoffs. He had 184 in 93 from the same start date to March 22nd 2023 with the playoffs added. We are basically looking at 2 points per game here for over a full 82 game sample. (1.99 or 163 in 82). That’s obviously higher than the 153 in 82 he recorded in an official NHL season.

Crosby from November 4 2010 to March 22 2013 had the 140 in 82 games. In terms of what he showed from start to finish over the 99 GP 2011-13 sample at his peak he was a 132 point guy in 82 games when scoring was a bit lower. When you adjust it is 174 in 99 or 144 in 82. It’s really hard to say since they are just bits of seasons put together but I think that if you adjust McDavid’s still would come out ahead.

It would be close though. I think Crosby would be for sure in the 140s if he played at his 2011 level in 2023. The stretch I actually find the most impressive (arguably) is Jagr’s 146 in 82 from January 9th 1999 to January 2nd 2000.

This is for non Gretzky or Lemieux guys of course as WG has a 235 in 82 GP and Mario 218 in 82 GP as their two best. Even if you found a way to “adjust” they’d both be a tier above.(83 to 84 and 88 to 89 respectively).

 

[daver]

Very interesting to think about. I know McDavid had 167 points in 84 games from
April 20th 2022 to March 3rd 2023 including the playoffs. He had 184 in 93 from the same start date to March 22nd 2023 with the playoffs added. We are basically looking at 2 points per game here for over a full 82 game sample. (1.99 or 163 in 82). That’s obviously higher than the 153 in 82 he recorded in an official NHL season.

Crosby from November 4 2010 to March 22 2013 had the 140 in 82 games. In terms of what he showed from start to finish over the 99 GP 2011-13 sample at his peak he was a 132 point guy in 82 games when scoring was a bit lower. When you adjust it is 174 in 99 or 144 in 82. It’s really hard to say since they are just bits of seasons put together but I think that if you adjust McDavid’s still would come out ahead.

It would be close though. I think Crosby would be for sure in the 140s if he played at his 2011 level in 2023. The stretch I actually find the most impressive (arguably) is Jagr’s 146 in 82 from January 9th 1999 to January 2nd 2000.

This is for non Gretzky or Lemieux guys of course as WG has a 235 in 82 GP and Mario 218 in 82 GP as their two best. Even if you found a way to “adjust” they’d both be a tier above.(83 to 84 and 88 to 89 respectively).

The OP is using % gap over a decent size sample of peers as the metric. No need to "adjust" using a faulty metric.

In Crosby's 99 games, his PPG was 51% better than the Avg. PPG of the next nine best. McDavid's PPG in 22/23 was 36% better avg. PPG of the next nine best.

Obviously that 99 games needs a ton of context which is why I expanded out to a timeframe where the number of games missed becomes less significant.

 

[MadLuke]

Wasn't the PP% in 22/23 above average though? Couldn't you say he had luck on the PP last year?

I did use historic powerplay without making sure, but I am pretty sure above average would undersell it

22-23 Oilers had the highest PP% in league history:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

They scored goals like a mediocre team in the 05-07, which show how important PPO can be would they have sustained that on a high power play year they would have really done a lot more damage.

Only Mario ever scored more points in the power play in a season than McDavid 71 pts, Drai scored more points than any of Gretzky best seasons.

I think everything go well Crosby, on a very strong team (i.e. good first PP unit, good linemate for him and good puck moving Ds), the Malkin-Letang healthy kind with a star forward like Guentzel, easy to imagine scoring 65 power play point and 84 ev pts, couple of SH for 151 pts.

He scored 61 on those 2007 pens before turning 20 and kept above 1 evp a game pace from 20102011 to 20122013 (1.12), you need that 20102011 Crosby, puck luck in a 20062007 or today scoring environment world and the play almost all the game, that a lot of things that need to go at the same time.

Peak young ev McDavid with last year power play McDavid, who knows how high he end up...

 

[daver]

I did use historic powerplay without making sure, but I am pretty sure above average would undersell it

22-23 Oilers had the highest PP% in league history:

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

They scored goals like a mediocre team in the 05-07, which show how important PPO can be would they have sustained that on a high power play year they would have really done a lot more damage.

Only Mario ever scored more points in the power play in a season than McDavid 71 pts, Drai scored more points than any of Gretzky best seasons.

I think everything go well Crosby, on a very strong team (i.e. good first PP unit, good linemate for him and good puck moving Ds), the Malkin-Letang healthy kind with a star forward like Guentzel, easy to imagine scoring 65 power play point and 84 ev pts, couple of SH for 151 pts.

He scored 61 on those 2007 pens before turning 20 and kept above 1 evp a game pace from 20102011 to 20122013 (1.12), you need that 20102011 Crosby, puck luck in a 20062007 or today scoring environment world and the play almost all the game, that a lot of things that need to go at the same time.

Peak young ev McDavid with last year power play McDavid, who knows how high he end up...

I am sure that PP scoring has some affect on ES scoring. Doesn't make much sense to presume everything stays the same.

Crosby's relative dominance in a lower scoring era already translates to 150 points in 22/23. You don't need to add any hypothetical scenarios.

 

[bobholly39]

The OP is using % gap over a decent size sample of peers as the metric. No need to "adjust" using a faulty metric.

In Crosby's 99 games, his PPG was 51% better than the Avg. PPG of the next nine best. McDavid's PPG in 22/23 was 36% better avg. PPG of the next nine best.

Obviously that 99 games needs a ton of context which is why I expanded out to a timeframe where the number of games missed becomes less significant.

I think there is more top end competition the past few years (ie during McDavid's peak) than there was during Crosby's peak (ie, ~2011-2013). That probably is a big part of these numbers being different in Crosby's favor for PPG by that much.

I think if Crosby was at his peak and healthy to put forth a "best" season in 2023 - he'd end up anywhere from ~130-160 points most likely. So it's a pretty big range. It's anyone's guess as to just how many points he would manage.

 

[MadLuke]

That probably is a big part of these numbers being different in Crosby's favor for PPG by that much.

The next 9 best PPG played probably in average way more game than Crosby here as well, I am not sure what it mean but it mean probably something.

 

[bobholly39]

The next 9 best PPG played probably in average way more game than Crosby here as well, I am not sure what it mean but it mean probably something.

I'm personally of the opinion that Crosby had it in him to sustain such a ppg in a full season in those years - but that's certainly a fair point.

 

[daver]

I think there is more top end competition the past few years (ie during McDavid's peak) than there was during Crosby's peak (ie, ~2011-2013). That probably is a big part of these numbers being different in Crosby's favor for PPG by that much.

I think if Crosby was at his peak and healthy to put forth a "best" season in 2023 - he'd end up anywhere from ~130-160 points most likely. So it's a pretty big range. It's anyone's guess as to just how many points he would manage.

The OP covers 09/10 to the first part of the 14/15 season. And the majority of games are not from 11-13. If you think the respective other Top 10 scorers for McDavid are on a different level, what are you basing this on?

 

[MadLuke]

I'm personally of the opinion that Crosby had it in him to sustain such a ppg in a full season in those years - but that's certainly a fair point.

The fact that he did it the next 2 years give some credence to this.

But I doubt he shoots 20% for a whole season like in the first 40 games of 2010-2011, a 64-65 goal rocket that year would have been well peak Ovechkin/anyone ever level.

In 2016-2017, first 40 games he was shooting at around the same level 20.9% (versus 20.1%), 28 goals versus 32, ended up with just a very high but normal 17.3% and a regular rocket win instead of possibly the best of all time one.

PDO over 104 is high, but he got higher in the next 2 short seasons, so maybe, I can seem him not sustaining that level of goal scoring but keeping up points wise (a bit like he did in the following game he played).

I think one way to look at it more fairly would be to compare Crosby 99 games ppg to the other 9 best 99 games stretch (or almost best maybe best 120 games say) ppg instead of what they did over 200 games.

Specially if scoring change a bit over those seasons and Crosby did not play a lot of game during the lower scoring one (but that when he was arguably at his physical peak, all is old men strength almost there, far away of the leg injuries but not too old-brain injured yet)

 

[daver]

I think one way to look at it more fairly would be to compare Crosby 99 games ppg to the other 9 best 99 games stretch (or almost best maybe best 120 games say) ppg instead of what they did over 200 games

There really isn't a fair way to compare but it really about recognizing Crosby's level of play over 4/5seasons is similar to McDavid's peak (and Jagr too).

Of course, McDavid and Jagr have the superior full seasons but that doesn't necessarily mean they were the better players offensively.

 

[bobholly39]

The OP covers 09/10 to the first part of the 14/15 season. And the majority of games are not from 11-13. If you think the respective other Top 10 scorers for McDavid are on a different level, what are you basing this on?

The top 10 players in ppg from 2020 to 2023 (4 years) are:

McDavid/Drai/Mack/Kucherov/Panarin/Matthews/Pastrnak/Marner/Rantanen/Crosby

The top 10 players in ppg from 2009 to 2014 (using your link in OP) are:

Crosby/Malkin/Stamkos/Ovechkin/MSL/Sedins/Backstrom/Getzlaf/Kane

Basing this on common sense/perception.

Drai > Malkin in this stretch. Malkin is very inconsistent with up/down seasons, Drai super consistent
Mack/Kucherov > Stamkos/Ovechkin for points (this includes Ovi's down years, if it was just his peak it might be different)

Same for bottom 6 - I prefer the younger group to the older gorup as point producers in this stretch.

I just think the top 10 players were more productive/putting forth better seasons in this stretch than in the 2009-2014 timeframe.

 

[daver]

The top 10 players in ppg from 2020 to 2023 (4 years) are:

McDavid/Drai/Mack/Kucherov/Panarin/Matthews/Pastrnak/Marner/Rantanen/Crosby

The top 10 players in ppg from 2009 to 2014 (using your link in OP) are:

Crosby/Malkin/Stamkos/Ovechkin/MSL/Sedins/Backstrom/Getzlaf/Kane

Basing this on common sense/perception.

Drai > Malkin in this stretch. Malkin is very inconsistent with up/down seasons, Drai super consistent
Mack/Kucherov > Stamkos/Ovechkin for points (this includes Ovi's down years, if it was just his peak it might be different)

Same for bottom 6 - I prefer the younger group to the older gorup as point producers in this stretch.

I just think the top 10 players were more productive/putting forth better seasons in this stretch than in the 2009-2014 timeframe.

This should remove relevance as to the strength of the respective Top Tens. Using the stats in the OP:

McDavid's % gap over:

#20 - 63%
#30 - 73%
#40 - 88%
#50 -97%
#100 - 133%

Crosby's % gap over:

#20 - 64%
#30 - 80%
#40 - 88%
#50 -94%
#100 - 134%


As close to the exact same as you can get.

 

[bobholly39]

This should remove relevance as to the strength of the respective Top Tens. Using the stats in the OP:

McDavid's % gap over:

#20 - 63%
#30 - 73%
#40 - 88%
#50 -97%
#100 - 133%

Crosby's % gap over:

#20 - 64%
#30 - 80%
#40 - 88%
#50 -94%
#100 - 134%


As close to the exact same as you can get.

In the first post I responded to you on, you were saying Crosby was 51% better than the top 10, and McDavid 36% better. Seemed to imply Crosby being better than McDavid.
This post now shows they are actually more comparable.

So yes - I agree. The top 10 in Crosby's years was weaker than in McDavid's, which is why Crosby's gap over top 10 is that much bigger, and isn't really indicative of Crosby being better than McDavid on a per game basis.

Overall - they were probably pretty comparable in terms of production on a per game basis, and this post here seems to agree with that. The difference is of course - McDavid did it in a full season, with Crosby we're left to speculate what he might have done in a full year with no injury.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Ovechkin was 331 points in 223 GP through 2007-08 through 2009-10 in a non-cherry picked three season sample. That's a 1.484 PPG stretch in a slightly smaller stretch of games over a more compressed but less random/cherry-picked cutoffs than Crosby's 1.502 PPG from November 28, 2009 through November 8, 2014.

Scoring slightly higher then, of course.

2007-08: 2.78
2008-09: 2.91
2009-10: 2.84
2010-11: 2.79
2011-12: 2.73
2012-13: 2.72
2013-14: 2.74
2014-15: 2.73

You can normalize it for league scoring a bit to increase the gap a bit, but not significantly so, as we aren't talking about seasons that were a decade apart or anything. Ovechkin's 65 in 78 GP in particular really creates a bit of an over-inflated gap which has little to do with Crosby himself. Then you get into the Malkin issue, with wild inconsistent swings from 109 in 75 to 37 in 43 that make him hard to properly factor as well. If Crosby did have the consistent 20%+ margin of victories in the scoring race every year like we'd expect, we'd have a neater and cleaner case of separation within era than what looks most like "clearly the most consistent, but in the sense of consistent while healthy, which wasn't always."

It's a shame he had so much injuries while in a stretch of his career that we'd expect to be 4 straight easy Art Rosses.