Thoroughly unexcited.

[darrylsittler27]

Most of us recognize this is a redo with added grit and soft defense that can't win you a round. The only way we advance is if Woll stands on his head.Samsonov won't win you a round by himself. So what happens? Dump a bunch of picks, maybe win one round and then say it's the top 4 and Keefe can't coach. So few care. This 4 isn't very relatable. It's not like Clark, Gilmour or even Sundin to be honest. I even think Vaive was more interesting. So yeah, who cares about reg season when you know we only have one real chance. If Woll goes Carey Price. These guys will never win a cup and we know it.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think both should be tried but I do like the balance going 3 lines gives our offense

I'd be all for balance if David Kampf was 4th line center instead of 3rd.

David Kampf being said 3rd line center makes balance impossible

 

[Darcy Tucker]

I'd like an over under estimate on those horrible Justin Bieber reverse jersey nights where it seems a bunch of Lego figures appear on the ice and mail in a crapfest.

 

[Captain Crunch]

A bit bored today, so I did some digging. May just be pointless, but here goes:

Since Matthews and Marner first entered the league (2016-17), the only teams who have done worse than us in terms of either not making the playoffs or not getting past the 1st round are - Arizona (franchise is a joke), Buffalo (definitely going in the right direction), Chicago (retool/rebuild fully underway), Detroit (rebuild ongoing), LA, and Minny.
The teams who have only gotten past the 1st round - TO, Calgary, Columbus, New Jersey (definitely a team on the rise), Philly (headed in the opposite direction), Vancouver (also look to be going the wrong way), and even the 2nd year Kraken.
Every other team has either won the Cup, lost in the finals, or been to the Conference finals.

So where do we stand on the Matthews and Nylander contract negotiations, as well as Marner’s next year? How much are they actually worth? I think it’s fairly obvious that Matthews is about to become the highest paid player in the league. That’s generally how it goes in any sport. But at what amount does it need to stop at? Personally, I’d say $13 million should be max. And Nylander’s shouldn’t be any higher than $9 million. As for Marner, he should resign for the exact same amount that he was making. The problem is, this is only compounding the team’s cap problems. It’s pretty obvious to me, that even if we do trade Nylander, there’s not a whole lot we can do until JT’s contract comes off the books.

And what type of mark do we give management (obviously including Shanahan)? Personally I’d give them a mark of D, mainly due to how they’ve unsuccessfully divided up the Cap allotment, having precious few draft picks in the top 3 rounds for the next several years, as well as having signed Tavares in the first place.

 

[Cleetus]

im excited counting the days on my maple leaf Calendar! and....

 

[Captain Crunch]

I know it's not popular to not piss on this team, but how about some positivity? I know they haven't won the cup and had playoff success, but this is true of most teams.

Before the 2021/2022 season the Panthers hadn't won a PO series in something like 20 years. Then they won a round before getting swept in the second round by the Tampa team that the Leafs had just lost in seven games to. Of course this year Florida wouldn't have even made the playoffs if the Penguins has beaten the Blackhawks on the last day of the season. But hey, keep telling us that the Panthers are contenders and we are not...it's more fun that way.

..this is not about the Panthers though, it's about our Leafs and reasons to be excited...

- No team has a long active streak of playoff appearances.
- Every contender in our division is getting older and declining.
- We have a new GM and two new coaches on the bench...a recipe for a different approach for sure.
- we have a (still) young coach that seems to get better every year
- We have a trio of young forwards that score goals, get lots of points, get nominated for and win awards, and are rounding out their games with defense, hits, blocks, etc. every year.
- Our team defensive play is getting better every year.
- Our "next level" includes a PPG 2nd line centre and captain, Rielly, and Samsonov (a young goalie with pedigree coming off a top 10 season for goalies).
- These guys are supposed by role players like Brodie, McCabe, Klingberg, Kampf, and Jarnkrok.
- We just added Bertuzzi and Domi to this.
- We have young guys ready to contribute in Knies, Woll and Liljegren, possibly Holmberg and this doesn't mention Niemela or Robertson.

Can someone list the teams that have MORE to be excited about this coming season?

That depends on whether you’re basing your expectations off of the regular season or the playoffs. Over the past 5 seasons with Tavares they have proven to be a great regular season team, but not so in the playoffs. And our three core players (Matthews, Marner, and Nylander) have proven that their point totals go down the longer the playoffs (practically just the 1st round) go.

 

[conFABulator]

That depends on whether you’re basing your expectations off of the regular season or the playoffs. Over the past 5 seasons with Tavares they have proven to be a great regular season team, but not so in the playoffs. And our three core players (Matthews, Marner, and Nylander) have proven that their point totals go down the longer the playoffs (practically just the 1st round) go.

We are still dealing with pretty small sample sizes on our core guys. Bertuzzi, Domi and Klingberg all had pretty decent playoffs last year...better than the guys they are replacing did.

I am not confident or even overly optimistic but I am not "unexcited" either for the reasons I outlined in my OP.

 

[Captain Crunch]

We are still dealing with pretty small sample sizes on our core guys. Bertuzzi, Domi and Klingberg all had pretty decent playoffs last year...better than the guys they are replacing did.

I am not confident or even overly optimistic but I am not "unexcited" either for the reasons I outlined in my OP.

But 7 seasons is not a small sample size. I’m not saying you have to trade all three of them, but I do believe we need to trade at least one of them (but only if it made sense of course, which is no easy feat).

 

[Orfieus]

I'm actually a little worried Toronto isn't going to make the playoffs this year, it would be a fitting end to the Matthews era

Toronto doesn't make the playoffs. AM and WN leave in free agency. Toronto trades MM for pennies because of his full NMC and Toronto is back to rebuilding

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'm actually a little worried Toronto isn't going to make the playoffs this year, it would be a fitting end to the Matthews era

Toronto doesn't make the playoffs. AM and WN leave in free agency. Toronto trades MM for pennies because of his full NMC and Toronto is back to rebuilding

I’d think they’d trade the assets like Matthews and Nylander.

I don’t mind rebuilding again, clearly we got the mix wrong.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I'm actually a little worried Toronto isn't going to make the playoffs this year, it would be a fitting end to the Matthews era

Toronto doesn't make the playoffs. AM and WN leave in free agency. Toronto trades MM for pennies because of his full NMC and Toronto is back to rebuilding

Toronto not making the playoffs is not realistic, unless you think they will be hit with several season and/or career ending injury

 

[conFABulator]

But 7 seasons is not a small sample size. I’m not saying you have to trade all three of them, but I do believe we need to trade at least one of them (but only if it made sense of course, which is no easy feat).

I guess I don't understand your comment then. You say it is a 7-year sample size where our top players have proven to produce less as the playoffs go longer. That has to refer to Round Two because it was just just not true as R1 went deeper. So, if it was R2 isn't that a ONE year sample size? This is the small one I was referring to.

R1 G4: Matthews: 2G, Marner: 2A, Nylander 3A, Rielly 1G

R1 G5: Tavares: 2A, Marner 1A, Matthews 1G, Rielly 1G

R1 G6: Matthews 1G, Rielly 1A, Tavares 1G

That's our core putting up these numbers in the back half of the series (3 games)...

Matthews - 4 goals
Nylander - 3 assists
Tavares - 1 goal, 2 assists
Marner - 3 assists
Rielly - 2 goals, 1 assist

The year before in the final 3 games...

Matthews - 2 goals, 1 assist
Nylander - 1 goal, 4 assists
Tavares - 3 goals, 1 assist
Marner - 2 assists
Rielly - 2 goals

Is this what you mean by our big guys not showing up? No, that can't be it. You must mean they didn't show up in the second round. Which might be true, it is also not a sample size of seven...it is ONE.

As for the second round, yes it would have been very nice of them scored some goals. They might have got goalied though. Two of our four losses where in OT.

In the five game series...

Matthews 2 assists and 26 shots of goal
Nylander 2 goals and 1 assist and 24 SOG
Tavares 1 assist and 24 SOG
Marner 1 goal and 2 assists and 17 SOG
Rielly 1 goal and 3 assists and 12 SOG

That's 4 goals, 9 assists and 103 SOG in a five game series.

Their big 5 got 8 goals and 12 assists and 60 SOG.

Maybe Bobrovsky was better than Samsonov and Woll? Maybe we could have got a bounce or two. Bob had a .943 save percentage and did the same to Carolina.

No excuses, but I obviously challenge your narrative that our big guys have a long history of not showing up when it appears they were out produced in Round 2.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I guess I don't understand your comment then. You say it is a 7-year sample size where our top players have proven to produce less as the playoffs go longer. That has to refer to Round Two because it was just just not true as R1 went deeper. So, if it was R2 isn't that a ONE year sample size? This is the small one I was referring to.

R1 G4: Matthews: 2G, Marner: 2A, Nylander 3A, Rielly 1G

R1 G5: Tavares: 2A, Marner 1A, Matthews 1G, Rielly 1G

R1 G6: Matthews 1G, Rielly 1A, Tavares 1G

That's our core putting up these numbers in the back half of the series (3 games)...

Matthews - 4 goals
Nylander - 3 assists
Tavares - 1 goal, 2 assists
Marner - 3 assists
Rielly - 2 goals, 1 assist

The year before in the final 3 games...

Matthews - 2 goals, 1 assist
Nylander - 1 goal, 4 assists
Tavares - 3 goals, 1 assist
Marner - 2 assists
Rielly - 2 goals

Is this what you mean by our big guys not showing up? No, that can't be it. You must mean they didn't show up in the second round. Which might be true, it is also not a sample size of seven...it is ONE.

As for the second round, yes it would have been very nice of them scored some goals. They might have got goalied though. Two of our four losses where in OT.

In the five game series...

Matthews 2 assists and 26 shots of goal
Nylander 2 goals and 1 assist and 24 SOG
Tavares 1 assist and 24 SOG
Marner 1 goal and 2 assists and 17 SOG
Rielly 1 goal and 3 assists and 12 SOG

That's 4 goals, 9 assists and 103 SOG in a five game series.

Their big 5 got 8 goals and 12 assists and 60 SOG.

Maybe Bobrovsky was better than Samsonov and Woll? Maybe we could have got a bounce or two. Bob had a .943 save percentage and did the same to Carolina.

No excuses, but I obviously challenge your narrative that our big guys have a long history of not showing up when it appears they were out produced in Round 2.

I think the poster was mostly just saying 7 years isn't a small sample size and a quick Google search just showed me multiple sources saying the average NHL career is 4.5 years so they have a point.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I'm actually a little worried Toronto isn't going to make the playoffs this year, it would be a fitting end to the Matthews era

Toronto doesn't make the playoffs. AM and WN leave in free agency. Toronto trades MM for pennies because of his full NMC and Toronto is back to rebuilding

Would be a hell of a time to start rebuilding.

DubASS decided to trade away our 2025 1st fyi.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Would be a hell of a time to start rebuilding.

DubASS decided to trade away our 2025 1st fyi.

There are two centres who might be close to Bedard-level prospects by the time the 2025 draft rolls around, so we better not suck in 24-25.

 

[Captain Crunch]

I guess I don't understand your comment then. You say it is a 7-year sample size where our top players have proven to produce less as the playoffs go longer. That has to refer to Round Two because it was just just not true as R1 went deeper. So, if it was R2 isn't that a ONE year sample size? This is the small one I was referring to.

R1 G4: Matthews: 2G, Marner: 2A, Nylander 3A, Rielly 1G

R1 G5: Tavares: 2A, Marner 1A, Matthews 1G, Rielly 1G

R1 G6: Matthews 1G, Rielly 1A, Tavares 1G

That's our core putting up these numbers in the back half of the series (3 games)...

Matthews - 4 goals
Nylander - 3 assists
Tavares - 1 goal, 2 assists
Marner - 3 assists
Rielly - 2 goals, 1 assist

The year before in the final 3 games...

Matthews - 2 goals, 1 assist
Nylander - 1 goal, 4 assists
Tavares - 3 goals, 1 assist
Marner - 2 assists
Rielly - 2 goals

Is this what you mean by our big guys not showing up? No, that can't be it. You must mean they didn't show up in the second round. Which might be true, it is also not a sample size of seven...it is ONE.

As for the second round, yes it would have been very nice of them scored some goals. They might have got goalied though. Two of our four losses where in OT.

In the five game series...

Matthews 2 assists and 26 shots of goal
Nylander 2 goals and 1 assist and 24 SOG
Tavares 1 assist and 24 SOG
Marner 1 goal and 2 assists and 17 SOG
Rielly 1 goal and 3 assists and 12 SOG

That's 4 goals, 9 assists and 103 SOG in a five game series.

Their big 5 got 8 goals and 12 assists and 60 SOG.

Maybe Bobrovsky was better than Samsonov and Woll? Maybe we could have got a bounce or two. Bob had a .943 save percentage and did the same to Carolina.

No excuses, but I obviously challenge your narrative that our big guys have a long history of not showing up when it appears they were out produced in Round 2.

Here are Marner’s playoff stats from 2017-2023:


Marners Playoff Career by game since the start of round 1 vs Washington in 2017

• ⁠Game 1s: 4 G and 5 A in 8 games

• ⁠Game 2s: 4 G and 7 A in 8 games

• ⁠Game 3s: 0 G and 8 A in 8 games

• ⁠Game 4s: 0 G and 9 A in 7 games

• ⁠Game 5s: 0 G and 4 A in 7 games

• ⁠Game 6s: 1 G and 1 A in 6 games

• ⁠Game 7s: 0 G and 2 A in 4 games

He definitely has less of an impact the longer the series goes!

 

[therealkoho]

yup little to no interest in next season. hope knies develops well, that'll be worth keeping tabs on.

Cmon the first pp with Klingberg setting that bomb off from the left point and having it find pay dirt will have you back in the fold in no time

 

[BrannigansLaw]

There are two centres who might be close to Bedard-level prospects by the time the 2025 draft rolls around, so we better not suck in 24-25.

It’s top-10 protected but then our 2026 1st would transfer and it would be unprotected.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

That's the nice thing about the Leafs consistently shitting the bed in the playoffs, it makes checking out from the team so much easier. I check in maybe once ever week or two to see if anything has happened. Outside of that they are out of sight out of mind. Hearing Keefe coming back just makes me even less excited. I literally couldn't tell you what half of what month the Leafs First preseason game is. I'll probably unintentionally miss it.

Hope everyone is having a great summer!

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Would be a hell of a time to start rebuilding.

DubASS decided to trade away our 2025 1st fyi.

It's top 10 protected so if things did fall apart they'd be fine in 2025, not 2026 though.

It's part of the reason you give Matthews whatever he wants because you can't afford to suck in 2026

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

That's the nice thing about the Leafs consistently shitting the bed in the playoffs, it makes checking out from the team so much easier. I check in maybe once ever week or two to see if anything has happened. Outside of that they are out of sight out of mind. Hearing Keefe coming back just makes me even less excited. I literally couldn't tell you what half of what month the Leafs First preseason game is. I'll probably unintentionally miss it.

Hope everyone is having a great summer!

I don't believe for ONE second you you don't know what month the pre season starts.

You have been here 12 years, and you have that username and you don't know what month the pre season starts?

Yeah OK

 

[leafs in five]

I'd like an over under estimate on those horrible Justin Bieber reverse jersey nights where it seems a bunch of Lego figures appear on the ice and mail in a crapfest.

what

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Once we get closer to September I'll be thoroughly excited for the season. We are too far still. Most of the leafs will be nursing their hangovers from the Marner wedding this month.

 

[conFABulator]

I think the poster was mostly just saying 7 years isn't a small sample size and a quick Google search just showed me multiple sources saying the average NHL career is 4.5 years so they have a point.

I get that...but why are we saying the core has shown a seven year pattern of not scoring when we get deeper in series when that is statistically not true the past couple of years.

A more accurate and less biased way to say it would be that our core did not have a history of showing up in the games later in a series until the past couple of years.

Our core guys showed up very well in the last three games in the past two Tampa series. They showed up OK on the score sheet with a crazy amount of shots and chances against a hot goalie in the Florida series.

My point is, to say they don't show up is an old, inaccurate and lazy narrative.

 

[mjd1001]

Most of us recognize this is a redo with added grit and soft defense that can't win you a round. The only way we advance is if Woll stands on his head.Samsonov won't win you a round by himself. So what happens? Dump a bunch of picks, maybe win one round and then say it's the top 4 and Keefe can't coach. So few care. This 4 isn't very relatable. It's not like Clark, Gilmour or even Sundin to be honest. I even think Vaive was more interesting. So yeah, who cares about reg season when you know we only have one real chance. If Woll goes Carey Price. These guys will never win a cup and we know it.

I think they can win a cup with this 'core 4'. I think the odds are stacked against them, but they have almost as good of a chance as anyone else (only 1 team wins every year). So if this 'core 4 is here', fine, they have a shot. I also think if they TRADE 2 of the core four (even if it was Matthews and Marner), they could win the cup also with what they get in return. Again, is it likely? No, but with the 2 remaining and what they would get its possible.

The reason i bolded what you said is that is my issue with this 'core 4'. Its not that they aren't good enough...its that they just aren't that likeable. As a fan you are going to root for them because they wear the jersey...and there isn't anything about them that I DISLIKE. Just...I don't know. Maybe its the early playoff exits year after year. Maybe it is the 'perception' by many that is repeated over and over that they have more of a 'diva' attitude than stars on other teams. Maybe its just that we feel none of them are giving ANY kind of a home town discount (like McKinnon did, or Tage Thompson, Jack Huges...etc.) Again, they aren't flipping the fan base off when leaving the ice after a loss, but something about them makes this group a tad bit less 'likeable' than other leaders we had in the past.