I like this analogy. Well done.
I have watched precious few prospects this year, but I think Reinbacher is an excellent example of what I mean when I say tiers should not be done via consensus high up in the NHL draft. When you do that, the milquetoast rises to the top.
I get why he’s popular. It’s difficult to look at him and think he’s unworthy of being a 1st rounder in some form. It’s just that when you get down to those solid but unspectacular types, making one of them a selection at 7OA is essentially saying you can reliably predict which of those types will be the best player. No one on the planet can do that.
So if you think there’s a star, you take him. And if not, you try to move down. Not because I’m telling you how smart I am or how smart my team is. It’s because I recognize the limitations of the information we all collectively have. We don’t know shit. Even teams. If your read is mild, trust the level of the read over the minutiae. Just take more swings.