Rumor: Things Not Left Unsaid 3 - Flyers Rumors and Media Mentions: Never Ending Circles

[freakydallas13]

I believe it's just a flat Model says X value for purely on ice play and his cap hit is Y.

X - Y gives you Surplus.

Here's another site's Laughton timeline. This illustrates the point far better than my words.

The Flyers look at this graph and see a player they want to keep instead of trade 3 years ago.

 

[VladDrag]

Laughton was bad. No argument.

Replacement level players aren't putting up 39 points. No way, no how.

There are many worse players than Laughton before you approach replacement level.

Please tell me you are not Danny Briere.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Laughton was bad. No argument.

Replacement level players aren't putting up 39 points. No way, no how.

There are many worse players than Laughton before you approach replacement level.

You can’t quote a flat Point total and expect the point to go unargued. We have way too many tools to live above the surface like that. Players as bad as Laughton were last year usually don’t get as much leeway as he got.

9 of those Points came on the PP, which he shouldn’t be anywhere near. In fact, he had exactly one PP Point in his entire NHL career before the summer of ‘22. He wasn’t given a difficult role from a QoT or QoC standpoint. Then add 82 games of 12 minutes/night at 5v5 despite putrid defensive play with an On Ice Shooting% at 5v5 above 9 and you’ve got 39 hollow Points.

I hope he bounces back. Used to be a good player. Seems like a great guy. Different discussions.

 

[flyersnorth]

I believe it's just a flat Model says X value for purely on ice play and his cap hit is Y.

X - Y gives you Surplus.

Here's another site's Laughton timeline. This illustrates the point far better than my words.

Things aren't going your way when you're literally off the chart.

 

[deadhead]

You can’t quote a flat Point total and expect the point to go unargued. We have way too many tools to live above the surface like that. Players as bad as Laughton were last year usually don’t get as much leeway as he got.

9 of those Points came on the PP, which he shouldn’t be anywhere near. In fact, he had exactly one PP Point in his entire NHL career before the summer of ‘22. He wasn’t given a difficult role from a QoT or QoC standpoint. Then add 82 games of 12 minutes/night at 5v5 despite putrid defensive play with an On Ice Shooting% at 5v5 above 9 and you’ve got 39 hollow Points.

I hope he bounces back. Used to be a good player. Seems like a great guy. Different discussions.

Laughton shouldn't be playing center, he's now got average speed and never had good defensive instincts. If he was LW with Poehling and Hathaway he'd probably show a substantial turnaround.

Problem is Cates is also better suited to LW, where he can use his instincts to be a top defensive forward, at center, his lack of size/speed is exposed.

Given the centers in LHV are Richard (good AAA but not NHL material), Abols, Rizzo, Desnoyers and Gardner, help has to come outside the organization for the next couple seasons. I expect a trade for a 3C type at some point (unless a deal for a top 6 comes available, but that's rare).

 

[Boocowski]

Are you aware that players age?

Are you aware that you need players of varying ages so that you can balance the cap and have a proper mix of young and old and have veteran leaders to guide the kids as well?

Do you want an all rookie team that sucks for a while and when they get good all want paydays at the same time? Good luck with that approach.

 

[Boocowski]

How about we consider other franchises, like Pittsburgh, Chicago, LA, etc., who won cups with a core built around the same time? That seemed to have worked okay for them.

I don't remember how Pittsburgh built. They got Crosby obviously, so we have Michkov. Maybe not as good as Crosby but your build around young guy. So what did they do with that going forward?

L.A. ? They got a cup because they made some key trades with a dumb franchise. Forget who that was, some orange idiots.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Some of the worst play for the Flyers the last two years have coincided with Laughton playing higher up in the lineup. It’s not the only one but it’s a pretty noticeable one. Yeah he puts up some points but the Flyers are losing those matchups as a whole with him on the ice in those situations. So you can’t really give him credit for the points without acknowledging that. So it was good for his bottom line but his underlying numbers were horrible & the Flyers bottom was really worse off for it.

When you have really inferior players playing way up in the lineup that’s usually why bad teams are bad teams. Some times you really have no choice because your is really that bad & not full of options. But the key is being aware of that where teams often fail.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I don't remember how Pittsburgh built. They got Crosby obviously, so we have Michkov. Maybe not as good as Crosby but your build around young guy. So what did they do with that going forward?

L.A. ? They got a cup because they made some key trades with a dumb franchise. Forget who that was, some orange idiots.

You don't remember how LA built either.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Are you aware that you need players of varying ages so that you can balance the cap and have a proper mix of young and old and have veteran leaders to guide the kids as well?

Do you want an all rookie team that sucks for a while and when they get good all want paydays at the same time? Good luck with that approach.

Plenty of teams have won with that approach. We didn't need to keep Seeler. Or Laughton. Or Hathaway. All solid value assets that could have been used to ensure Michkov actually has someone to play with when he hits his prime. These are pro athletes. How many older hand-holders do you think a team needs? Veterans and intangibles have zero value if the people bearing it suck at their actual jobs. No opposition scores less when Deslauriers is on the ice just because they think he's a solid guy.

The Flyers are doing what they always do and they'll waste his career like they wasted Lindros and Giroux.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Every "X approach does or doesn't work because of example Y" argument is in bad faith. They're not worth your time.

All strategies can work. Some are just more difficult than others.

 

[Boocowski]

Plenty of teams have won with that approach. We didn't need to keep Seeler. Or Laughton. Or Hathaway. All solid value assets that could have been used to ensure Michkov actually has someone to play with when he hits his prime. These are pro athletes. How many older hand-holders do you think a team needs? Veterans and intangibles have zero value if the people bearing it suck at their actual jobs. No opposition scores less when Deslauriers is on the ice just because they think he's a solid guy.

The Flyers are doing what they always do and they'll waste his career like they wasted Lindros and Giroux.

So that sounds like you are against the TK extension is that right? Fits your logic. You wanted a full tear down right?

 

[CerpinTaxt]

I don't remember how Pittsburgh built. They got Crosby obviously, so we have Michkov. Maybe not as good as Crosby but your build around young guy. So what did they do with that going forward?

L.A. ? They got a cup because they made some key trades with a dumb franchise. Forget who that was, some orange idiots.

Pittsburgh built thru the draft. The 09 cup and 16-17 cups were won by the core they drafted from 03-06 (minus Jordan Staal for the 16-17 cups). Guess what all drafted within the top 5

 

[Appleyard]

I don't remember how Pittsburgh built. They got Crosby obviously, so we have Michkov. Maybe not as good as Crosby but your build around young guy. So what did they do with that going forward?

L.A. ? They got a cup because they made some key trades with a dumb franchise. Forget who that was, some orange idiots.

Pens obviously built through the draft... their entire core was drafted. Their 1C, 2C, 1D and 1G as well as a lot of their depth.

LA drafted Doughty, Kopitar, Voynov and Quick within a 4 year window.

And also drafted some fantastic depth pieces and flipped other good draft picks for assets.

Drafted depth that contributed to cups: Martinez, Bernier, Lewis, King, Clifford, Nolan
Asset trades: Schenn, Simmonds

They are actually probably one of the best examples of "built through the draft" teams really.

They topped off their great core with some good trades to fill needs (2C)...

but 5 of their most important ~7 players during both cups? They drafted and developed.

And they KEPT drafting well (Toffoli, Forbort, Pearson, Miller) for a few more years while contenders to keep window open longer...

 

[Appleyard]

St. Louis are really the only post-cap "normal" team (Vegas ofc being an interesting situation) who did not draft very high multiple times over a few year time span... and still, 2 of their top 3 guys were top 15 picks they selected, then they got their 1C in a trade.

It is "possible" to win without building entire core through draft. It is just very hard.

Why? Because 1C's dont go to market in their prime very often. You have to either pick one up before they hit when value lower (Zibanejad, Seguin) or fluke into Jack Eichel (~1 such player wants to move in prime every 10 years), or sign John Tavares (~1 such player comes to UFA still in prime every 10 years).

And while 1Ds are a bit easier to get? They still are hard to acquire outside the draft and have to have a decent amount of luck... as once they "hit" their status as a top pairing guy they cost the world.

And you really need 3+ "star" level players to really compete in this league. In theory you can build a different way... with a deep team that wins on margins... but in a lot of ways that is far harder to do as more moving pieces... and almost impossible if the pieces that are key are not within ~5 years of each other age wise...

and as Yeats once said:

"Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold"

similarly the more "gyres" (players removed from each other age wise in this context) an NHL team has the harder it is to have a contender for more than 2-3 years.
And statistically speaking a team that does not force its way to being one of the ~5 best teams in the NHL over a 7 year window has a pretty low chance of winning. 2-3 year windows even as the best team in the league mean you likely have a dice roll of a chance at a cup.

 

[thedjpd]

You can’t quote a flat Point total and expect the point to go unargued. We have way too many tools to live above the surface like that. Players as bad as Laughton were last year usually don’t get as much leeway as he got.

9 of those Points came on the PP, which he shouldn’t be anywhere near. In fact, he had exactly one PP Point in his entire NHL career before the summer of ‘22. He wasn’t given a difficult role from a QoT or QoC standpoint. Then add 82 games of 12 minutes/night at 5v5 despite putrid defensive play with an On Ice Shooting% at 5v5 above 9 and you’ve got 39 hollow Points.

I hope he bounces back. Used to be a good player. Seems like a great guy. Different discussions.

You can when it's absurd.

Laughton can actually be a serial killer, kick babies and punt puppies and if he puts up 40 points in the NHL and gets a contract, he'd still make more than 800K.

Even if you discount that to 30 or 35.

The analytics helps when you're trying to determine if a player who has good production, and you need other measures to help determine if that increases or decreases his value by a fixed amount. TK is at present, a near PPG player over his last ~131 games. He's getting X value (whatever you deem is fair market) around 7.5, 8, 8.5, 9 or whatever.

If he's exceptional in other areas, he may get 9.5. If he stinks in other areas, he may get 7.5. But there's a guardrail that he'll never get less than as a near PPG player in market environment. So in that context, this model has it so far off that you've blown past the guardrails and are into the abyss. TK will never, for example, sign for a $4M contract - ever. No matter what the analytics state, even if he's the worst player in the league at everything else hockey. His production implies some minimum. Same way, a player who puts up (consistently) 35-40 points will never have a value of 800K (league minimum) - regardless of any 'context' you provide. This also does not account for off-ice factors, which are clearly valued. In the Sanheim vein, Sanheim is shown to have negative contract value. $6.5M for a top pair d-man, with production and stats to back it up. You can argue whether a good contract or a fair contract, but negative?

The model is broken. Just my opinion and why I don't follow models, especially when so many of them state things that are quite opposite of each other.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

You can when it's absurd.

Laughton can actually be a serial killer, kick babies and punt puppies and if he puts up 40 points in the NHL and gets a contract, he'd still make more than 800K.

Even if you discount that to 30 or 35.

The analytics helps when you're trying to determine if a player who has good production, and you need other measures to help determine if that increases or decreases his value by a fixed amount. TK is at present, a near PPG player over his last ~131 games. He's getting X value (whatever you deem is fair market) around 7.5, 8, 8.5, 9 or whatever.

If he's exceptional in other areas, he may get 9.5. If he stinks in other areas, he may get 7.5. But there's a guardrail that he'll never get less than as a near PPG player in market environment. So in that context, this model has it so far off that you've blown past the guardrails and are into the abyss. TK will never, for example, sign for a $4M contract - ever. No matter what the analytics state, even if he's the worst player in the league at everything else hockey. His production implies some minimum. Same way, a player who puts up (consistently) 35-40 points will never have a value of 800K (league minimum) - regardless of any 'context' you provide. This also does not account for off-ice factors, which are clearly valued. In the Sanheim vein, Sanheim is shown to have negative contract value. $6.5M for a top pair d-man, with production and stats to back it up. You can argue whether a good contract or a fair contract, but negative?

The model is broken.

Brother, it's not a contract prediction model. You're telling me an apple is a terrible orange. No one is arguing against that.

I don't even value the damn thing. I just think it's important to frame conversations properly.

 

[Beef Invictus]

So that sounds like you are against the TK extension is that right? Fits your logic. You wanted a full tear down right?

I am ambivalent to a TK extension. The price is high and that's an error. My philosophy is that anything that won't be worthwhile when Michkov is 25 and can be sold should be sold now for things that will be. TK might still have utility then. Get everything on the same timeline, instead of what we watched them do with Giroux.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

I am ambivalent to a TK extension. The price is high and that's an error. My philosophy is that anything that won't be worthwhile when Michkov is 25 and can be sold should be sold now for things that will be. TK might still have utility then. Get everything on the same timeline, instead of what we watched them do with Giroux.

This speeds up a Farabee trade before the season for an underwhelming return.

 

[renberg]

This speeds up a Farabee trade before the season for an underwhelming return.

It probably does speed up a Farabee trade. Let's see what the return is before condemning it.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

St. Louis also probably had the shortest contending window too outside of maybe LA. Lombardi crashed & burned LA with so many bad moves. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case with St. Louis. Pietrangelo left while ROR & others just naturally declined off their previous higher standards of play. Even really good teams need luck but even a team like that in such a small window struck while most others don’t because there’s usually just not enough kicks at the can.

 

[trostol]

It probably does speed up a Farabee trade. Let's see what the return is before condemning it.

Dunno..I think I wanna condemn it since he shouldn't be traded at all

 

[blackjackmulligan]

It probably does speed up a Farabee trade. Let's see what the return is before condemning it.

Do you have faith in a good return?

 

[Curufinwe]

It probably does speed up a Farabee trade. Let's see what the return is before condemning it.

I can already condemn the process that's pushing Farabee and his reasonable contract out the door.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

The Most Searched NHL Team

We researched google search volumes for all countries to find out the most searched teams across the world and here are the interesting results.

sportshandle.com

I dont see flyers there. Though some of those are surprising even if its couple years old.