Rumor: Things Not Left Unsaid 3 - Flyers Rumors and Media Mentions: Never Ending Circles

[Ghosts Beer]

Very bad examples imo. GH probably though it is was someone playing a prank on him when he got that call about an ext.

You think the Flyers are the only team that would have given Hathaway a $2.4M contract?

Is that really the position you are taking?

 

[trostol]

You think the Flyers are the only team that would have given Hathaway a $2.4M contract?

Is that really the position you are taking?

someone else should be

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I just don't buy that michkov wasn't their target the whole time. He was linked to them endlessly in the weeks leading up to the draft, and had secret meetings conducted in Philly, while he was actively telling other clubs he wouldn't play for them.

This is the level of delusion by some on this board.

So desperate are they to hate management, that they've convinced themselves the Flyers would've taken Reinbacher over Michkov, despite organizing a top secret meeting with Michkov at their practice facility before the draft.

 

[mja]

This is the level of delusion by some on this board.

So desperate are they to hate management, that they've convinced themselves the Flyers would've taken Reinbacher over Michkov, despite organizing a top secret meeting with Michkov at their practice facility before the draft.

I have no idea about Reinbacher or whatever, but the only desperation I'm seeing is the level of delusion you show time and time again that this management group doesn't have its head planted fully and completely up its ass despite all evidence to the contrary.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

The whole “they targeted a RH defenseman and only a RH defenseman” thing still doesn’t fly for me. And not even because I think they’re smarter than that, but because I’m just not convinced they would specifically target an undersized puck-moving defenseman.

They liked Drysdale because it was a relatively clean 1-for-1 swap that allowed them to save face by getting someone with similar pedigree and draft capital. Which isn’t good logic either, but worth pointing out, I think.

I maintain that their criteria were 1) center or defenseman, 2) under 23 y/o, 3) had similar draft pedigree, and 4) was available immediately (perhaps the most under-appreciated criteria that they handcuffed themselves to).

Drysdale (and Byram) were the only two available satisfying those conditions, and I don’t think Colorado wanted to pull the trigger before the deadline. Briere wanted to get it done as quickly as he possibly could, and was no doubt pleased that he was able to do it right after the WJC.

In hindsight, trading him at the draft for a top 10 pick would have been ideal (actually hindsight isn’t even necessary). They probably would have used it to take Dickinson if they couldn’t get into the top 5. You could have probably gotten Demidov by packaging him with #12 to get Anaheim’s 3rd overall and probably the 2nd that we got with Drysdale.

According to Elliotte Friedman, I believe, the Flyers inquired about Byram in a Gauthier trade but Colorado wasn't interested.

And I don't know if this is related, but it was also reported that there were teams who wanted no part of Gauthier because they were worried about his signability.

I have no idea about Reinbacher or whatever, but the only desperation I'm seeing is the level of delusion you show time and time again that this management group doesn't have its head planted fully and completely up its ass despite all evidence to the contrary.

Did they have their heads up their asses when they flew Michkov in for a secret meeting, drafted him at 7, and brought him over to the NHL 2 years before his KHL contract expired?

 

[mja]

Did they have their heads up their asses when they flew Michkov in for a secret meeting, drafted him at 7, and brought him over to the NHL 2 years before his KHL contract expired?

I personally think Michkov was coming over no matter what, but that's neither here nor there, because blind squirrel and all, and this wasn't just any nut, this was the biggest damned nut this stupid blind squirrel of a management team could have possibly stumbled on.

One great lucky thing - that they seem to have done everything right for, to their credit - doesn't mean they don't have their heads up their asses. We have mountains of evidence that this organization's approach is wrongheaded. They've made one spectacularly bad decision after another, and you by the way have supported nearly all of them with the same strident contrarianism that you're displaying here. At what point in time do you stop and think that maybe the reason that everything keeps going to shit is because they're wrong and by extension you're wrong?

 

[TheKingPin]

Hindsight is 20/20 but for Cutter I think if we waited it out then he would have possibly just signed the deal. We owned his rights. He has no leverage. It might seem to us like they just settled for Drysdale but I think they wanted him. I think the 2nd was insurance since he was so often injured and haven’t players much.

 

[Tripod]

This organization continues to show it's incompetence and archaic thinking all while being arrogant. I blame no player for bailing on this organization that continues to get in it's own way.

As a fan, they have turned me almost completely off of hockey. The drafting of Michkov gave me a little hope but then this draft and FA took that away again. without Michkov, would our prospect group be dead last? Feels that way.

Then add in reports of wanting to trade Farabee and Frost, the handling of Couts, wanting to move Sanheim for awful return, not trading Laughton while claiming to be rebuilding, etc... They continue to show who they really are.

What a "new" era.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Requesting a trade is not ghosting a team. Who the hell cares about talking to John LeClair or Patrick Sharp?

Some of these posts are like a 15 year old going through a breakup. It's a business. You've got to look out for your own career.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Hindsight is 20/20 but for Cutter I think if we waited it out then he would have possibly just signed the deal. We owned his rights. He has no leverage. It might seem to us like they just settled for Drysdale but I think they wanted him. I think the 2nd was insurance since he was so often injured and haven’t players much.

What "leverage" did the Flyers have?

Did the Blackhawks have "leverage" over Kevin Hayes? Did the Flames have "leverage" over Adam Fox?

They become unrestricted free agents in 4 years. That's leverage.

Hell, ignoring the college angle, did the Nordiques have "leverage" over Eric Lindros?

If a player tells a team he refuses to play for them, they're going to trade him.

You think "if we waited it out then he would have possibly just signed the deal"?

Great game of chicken to play when your job is on the line.

 

[Random Forest]

I’m curious to see how the McGroarty situation plays out because that will test the “his value would have gone down when Gauthier’s intentions became public” excuse. Will McGroarty return fair value? Or will there be a discount now that it’s public?

I was a bit waffley on that. On the one hand, there’s no reason his value would decline just because he doesn’t want to sign with PHI. On the other hand, this is the NHL, and logical thinking isn’t abundant, so it’s plausible that GMs could be weird about it.

The reasons for Gauthier’s decision aren’t really interesting to me. The interesting question is, what would the alternative scenario had been if they waited?

Could Gauthier have signed in March because he would have lost *another* year of accrual by letting it play out into the summer? Could they have gotten a better return by waiting until the draft? They actually did Gauthier a solid by honoring his request in a timely fashion and letting him join his new team before the year was up.

 

[Audible Velvet]

Requesting a trade is not ghosting a team. Who the hell cares about talking to John LeClair or Patrick Sharp?

Some of these posts are like a 15 year old going through a breakup. It's a business. You've got to look out for your own career.

This is where I’m at. No means no.

“ First, you need to talk to these two guys.”

“No, I don’t”

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I’m curious to see how the McGroarty situation plays out because that will test the “his value would have gone down when Gauthier’s intentions became public” excuse. Will McGroarty return fair value? Or will there be a discount now that it’s public?

I was a bit waffley on that. On the one hand, there’s no reason his value would decline just because he doesn’t want to sign with PHI. On the other hand, this is the NHL, and logical thinking isn’t abundant, so it’s plausible that GMs could be weird about it.

The reasons for Gauthier’s decision aren’t really interesting to me. The interesting question is, what would the alternative scenario had been if they waited?

Could Gauthier have signed in March because he would have lost *another* year of accrual by letting it play out into the summer? Could they have gotten a better return by waiting until the draft? They actually did Gauthier a solid by honoring his request in a timely fashion and letting him join his new team before the year was up.

I don't disagree with the thought process at all, but I do think that quality is what trumps every issue.

McGroarty is a very good prospect who should return a 1+. But the league thought higher of Gauthier than they do him. So there may be teams that were willing to look past it for one and not the other. I did say may, not for sure. We will never know.

 

[GKJ]

Hindsight is 20/20 but for Cutter I think if we waited it out then he would have possibly just signed the deal. We owned his rights. He has no leverage. It might seem to us like they just settled for Drysdale but I think they wanted him. I think the 2nd was insurance since he was so often injured and haven’t players much.

His leverage is that he refuses to sign and just goes to UFA in 2 years and decides to deliberately f*** the Flyers over. The reason they were apt to move him when they did was because they didn’t want to get out. If he doesn’t sign before the end of this season, then everyone knows.

The 2nd wasn’t insurance, they needed that as part of the deal. Drysdale wasn’t worth a 1st on his own in the moment, but he is if this works.

 

[Random Forest]

I don't disagree with the thought process at all, but I do think that quality is what trumps every issue.

McGroarty is a very good prospect who should return a 1+. But the league thought higher of Gauthier than they do him. So there may be teams that were willing to look past it for one and not the other. I did say may, not for sure. We will never know.

That’s true, but, in theory, the market dynamics *should* be the same. In any normal bidding process, as long as you have two engaged participants, you should be able to create a competitive outcome that results in a fair market value with no discount.

If McGroarty goes for less than a 1st+, I think we can at least give some credence to the claim that Gauthier’s value would have declined had they waited.

Regardless, I think it’s clear now (if it wasn’t already clear at the time of the trade) that value was not maximized on Gauthier by trading him in January. I really hate the counterfactual here, because I think Gauthier + 12th would have gotten Anaheim to seriously consider trading the 3rd overall. That may not have been a great value trade either, but at least you’re paying a premium to get the elite talent that they clearly wanted (Demidov). Like you said, we’ll never know, but it’s hard to see Drysdale + 2nd still being the best offer available had they waited.

 

[wankstifier]

Did Briere and Jones feel pressure to trade Gauthier because they didn't want to lose him for a compensatory pick? Or, did they not want the guy around anymore because he wasn't excited to be a Flyer?

We assume that Gauthier would've continued to hold out. It may be true that the Flyers tried to play hardball and then got bluffed by the college kid.

 

[GKJ]

That’s true, but, in theory, the market dynamics *should* be the same. In any normal bidding process, as long as you have two engaged participants, you should be able to create a competitive outcome that results in a fair market value with no discount.

If McGroarty goes for less than a 1st+, I think we can at least give some credence to the claim that Gauthier’s value would have declined had they waited.

Regardless, I think it’s clear now (if it wasn’t already clear at the time of the trade) that value was not maximized on Gauthier by trading him in January. I really hate the counterfactual here, because I think Gauthier + 12th would have gotten Anaheim to seriously consider trading the 3rd overall. That may not have been a great value trade either, but at least you’re paying a premium to get the elite talent that they clearly wanted (Demidov). Like you said, we’ll never know, but it’s hard to see Drysdale + 2nd still being the best offer available had they waited.

I think you can only make that case if there was any evidence that trades like that ever happen at the draft. The time to get their pick was when the trade was made. And given they didn’t, they weren’t going to.

 

[GKJ]

Did Briere and Jones feel pressure to trade Gauthier because they didn't want to lose him for a compensatory pick? Or, did they not want the guy around anymore because he wasn't excited to be a Flyer?

We assume that Gauthier would've continued to hold out. It may be true that the Flyers tried to play hardball and then got bluffed by the college kid.

They get the pick anyways, the Ducks were just willing to do it for their own 3 years early. The 2nd rounder was always there for them. That’s why I say it wasn’t insurance. That was required to make the trade unless it was made worth their while.

 

[Random Forest]

I think you can only make that case if there was any evidence that trades like that ever happen at the draft. The time to get their pick was when the trade was made. And given they didn’t, they weren’t going to.

I don’t buy this. Yes, it’s rare for top picks to be traded. It’s also rare for players like Gauthier to steer a trade in the first place. We’re talking about long tail events with little precedent.

 

[GKJ]

I don’t buy this. Yes, it’s rare for top picks to be traded. It’s also rare for players like Gauthier to steer a trade in the first place. We’re talking about long tail events with little precedent.

The Flyers tried to move him for 5OV last year and got told no.

The Predators tried to use Askarov last year to get in position to get Michkov, and got told no. That was before there was any indication that he may want to be traded.

This year we had a team at 4 get everything the league had thrown at them, after there was reporting that they wanted to do something, and the answer was no.


It simply does not happen.

 

[wankstifier]

They get the pick anyways, the Ducks were just willing to do it for their own 3 years early. The 2nd rounder was always there for them. That’s why I say it wasn’t insurance. That was required to make the trade unless it was made worth their while.

I was responding more to your claim that Gauthier had leverage over the Flyers, which I don't think is true.

 

[Cody Webster]

You are wrong.

Both Briere and Jones said separately, in multiple interviews, that Cutter's unwillingness to sign started in the fall just months after he was drafted.

Briere has said he was still an assistant to Fletcher when this situation started. Jones said he first heard of it when he was still broadcasting for Comcast.

And Briere certainly never said he (and Jones) "misspoke" (in multiple interviews) about when this started with Cutter.

Let's drop everything and believe everything that they have to say. As the president of hockey ops and the GM of the team, Im sure they are 100% telling the truth and not trying to protect themselves at all....this organization has no history whatsoever of lying out there ass, so why start now...right?

 

[Random Forest]

The Flyers tried to move him for 5OV last year and got told no.

The Predators tried to use Askarov last year to get in position to get Michkov, and got told no. That was before there was any indication that he may want to be traded.

This year we had a team at 4 get everything the league had thrown at them, after there was reporting that they wanted to do something, and the answer was no.


It simply does not happen.

You don’t have to give me the history. I’m well aware how rare it is. I’m also well aware of how rare it is for a prospect of Gauthier’s caliber to be available. I can promise you that a top 10 pick will be traded again. Just because it doesn’t happen often and has not happened recently does not mean it will never happen again when the circumstances are right.

I’m not saying for sure that it could have happened — we can’t know the counterfactual — but clearly Anaheim had considerable interest in Gauthier. It strikes me as plausible that the circumstances would have been close to “right” to facilitate a trade up from 12 -> 3 with Gauthier involved.

And the point more broadly is that Drysdale+2nd would have likely still been available had they waited until the summer.

 

[GKJ]

I was responding more to your claim that Gauthier had leverage over the Flyers, which I don't think is true.

His not signing and not being leaked was his leverage. The ‘advisor’ knows they were never going to wait out the 4 years. The Flyers only had until his season ended to do something.

 

[thedjpd]

His leverage is that he refuses to sign and just goes to UFA in 2 years and decides to deliberately f*** the Flyers over. The reason they were apt to move him when they did was because they didn’t want to get out. If he doesn’t sign before the end of this season, then everyone knows.

The 2nd wasn’t insurance, they needed that as part of the deal. Drysdale wasn’t worth a 1st on his own in the moment, but he is if this works.

This is a great point by GKJ, that most of us are missing (I didn't even think about it from this angle.)

The leverage isn't 4 years, it's 2 for the Flyers. After the 2 year mark, CG, an elite prospect who dominated college, played WJC, etc. is expected to sign. If he doesn't, word is absolutely out that he won't. I'm not saying he'd have 0 value at that point, but it would certainly be less.

At that point, yes, his value does drop because teams will then (particularly rebuilding ones) will wait to see what they have in 2 years and take their shot at him for free, rather than giving up a high value asset anytime later than that with no guarantee he'd sign. You start teetering on the edge of do I just wait or do I offer something.