The Window Starts Now

[Menzinger]

While Tre may indeed look to retool things,.I don't think the team is able to treat the next two seasons as a transition period. They will be expected to be as competitive as possible while Matthews is under contract.

Banking everything on the final two years of Matthews current deal puts too many eggs in too few baskets

 

[ToneDog]

Meh I think we can. We need a goalie and you gotta move off Tavares and find a legit #2 C. I would honestly let Bertuzzi walk and sign Tyler Toffoli. He’s a better goal scorer

You may need to move Bert's money towards that #2C and move Tavares down to #3C or #2/3 LW.

While Tre may indeed look to retool things,.I don't think the team is able to treat the next two seasons as a transition period. They will be expected to be as competitive as possible while Matthews is under contract.

Banking everything on the final two years of Matthews current deal puts too many eggs in too few baskets

Now that is something Shanny excels at.

 

[PromisedLand]

Make sure to time the cap space for McDavid hitting free agency in 2 years

as much as I'd like McJesus on teh Leafs; I think that's a pipe dream. I don't think he will be leaving Oilers. Him and Drai are like brothers. Unless Drai decides to move McJesus isn't moving IMO

Also, I don't think I want McDavid post his prime years. he is going to get too big a contract and that will not allow Leafs to ice a competitive roster.

 

[LeafGrief]

Re-tool for sure.

Tavares can finish his contract, but I think we’re moving on, regardless of whether he’s an effective player or is willing to take a discount. He was the captain through the failure and the cultural shift includes saying goodbye to him. Thanks for trying JT, you don’t have to retire but you don’t play for us any more.

Keep Domi, Bertuzzi should move on. The idea of bertuzzi is a lot better than the actual player, I wouldn’t want him at anything more than 4m with any term. Bert was a mercenary, Domi wants to be here.

Don’t trade all the forward depth, the kids need insulation and to fight for their jobs. Try and recoup some draft capital so that we have a next wave of prospects coming in 3-5 years.

 

[PromisedLand]

I think we have made too many mistakes over the past 6 years to right the ship. I can't see us making the final 4 during the Matthews, Nylander, Marner era.

We could absolutely have become a serious threat for a decade, but we screwed it up as best as you could. It looks like it is way too late to salvage this. Lack of draft picks, tradeable assets, cap control will make it an impossible task.

Meaningful changes should absolutely have been made softer the Colimbus series.

As a HUGE LEAFS FAN, I refuse to be bundled into the "We". Replace the "We" with Dubas and Shanny. I bolded and increased the fonts with red color where this can be replaced

I don't want McDavid in 2 years. I don't want another Tavares situation with him.

If McDavid truly wanted to be a Leaf, he wouldn't have signed his last deal with such a long term. He can stay in Edmonton and retire there.

He has given Edmonton his best years as a hockey player. I don't want to witness his skills degradation similar to what we are now witnessing with Tavares.

I know a lot of fellow Leaf fans will disagree with me, however I still think I'll be proven right in the end.

Our Leafs need to draft and develop our own superstars. They need to draft better and certainly not overpay them too soon.

JMHO.

Nope I agree. I second this motion.

32 teams in the league not all of them have McDavid; and the teams that have won the cup don't have McDavid on their roster. He will cost too much, will be aging and won't help that much in post season IMO. If I am the GM I will not pursue McDavid if the goal is to actually win the cup and not to sell jerseys

 

[PromisedLand]

Seeing what Dallas is doing right now is the most refreshing example to me. Just built an army of depth everywhere, a lot of it grown in house with a couple of generations in house, from grizzled vet to prime aged stars and rookies ready to contribute. It’s a tightly run program they have success, draft extremely well and no one is worried about Jason Robertson or Miro Heiskanen or someone else wanting the biggest contract in the league for X years.

Getting a publish lashing from the CEO also kinda helped I suppose

https://x.com/i/web/status/1078804916003655680

https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/nhl/canadiens-coach-julien-hopeful-injured-price-won-t-be-out-for-long-1.4961224#:~:text=Dallas%20Stars%20CEO%20Jim%20Lites,Gaglardi%20was%20frustrated%20as%20well.

 

[Shooter14]

I think we have made too many mistakes over the past 6 years to right the ship. I can't see us making the final 4 during the Matthews, Nylander, Marner era.

We could absolutely have become a serious threat for a decade, but we screwed it up as best as you could. It looks like it is way too late to salvage this. Lack of draft picks, tradeable assets, cap control will make it an impossible task.

Meaningful changes should absolutely have been made softer the Colimbus series.

I also have had the same thoughts. Doesn't look like I'll ever see another cup championship. I'm thankful I've experienced the cup championships of the sixtie's. But thanks to Shanahan and his point dexter boy, what's his name Dumbass? how they screwd up so badly. Another cup win will never come to fruition in my life, and I wouldn't know if they won or not, as I'll probably be in diapers with a load dispenced for both of them!

 

[myleafs]

I don't want McDavid in 2 years. I don't want another Tavares situation with him.

If McDavid truly wanted to be a Leaf, he wouldn't have signed his last deal with such a long term. He can stay in Edmonton and retire there.

He has given Edmonton his best years as a hockey player. I don't want to witness his skills degradation similar to what we are now witnessing with Tavares.

I know a lot of fellow Leaf fans will disagree with me, however I still think I'll be proven right in the end.

Our Leafs need to draft and develop our own superstars. They need to draft better and certainly not overpay them too soon.

JMHO.

So you see Tavares and Mcdavid as the same? okeedokee

 

[PromisedLand]

Trade Marner....clearly, which will happen.

Tavares though, I'm letting him play out the year. I have no trust in him and I'm predicting a massive decline. 20 goals will be a struggle for him.

Regular Season:
- Ranked 67th amongst forwards in terms of scoring total points
- Ranked 89th amongst forwards in terms of points per game
- Ranks 9th overall amongst every players in terms of cap hit

Leafs have 4 players in top 20 cap hits in the league next season (including Marner btw...)
Ranks:
1. Matthews,
6. Nylander
9. Tavares
12. Marner

 

[conFABulator]

Re-tool for sure.

Tavares can finish his contract, but I think we’re moving on, regardless of whether he’s an effective player or is willing to take a discount. He was the captain through the failure and the cultural shift includes saying goodbye to him. Thanks for trying JT, you don’t have to retire but you don’t play for us any more.

Keep Domi, Bertuzzi should move on. The idea of bertuzzi is a lot better than the actual player, I wouldn’t want him at anything more than 4m with any term. Bert was a mercenary, Domi wants to be here.

Don’t trade all the forward depth, the kids need insulation and to fight for their jobs. Try and recoup some draft capital so that we have a next wave of prospects coming in 3-5 years.

I think the term failure gets accepted as fact too much around here. Yes, they have not yet won a cup, but does this make you a failure? Does this mean every team that hasn't won the cup in the past five years (Tavares) and that their captains are failures that need to go?

McDavid, out? Barkov should have been out. Benn would have been out. Jordan Staal? Josi? Are these guys all losers?

The Leafs are one of the most winningest teams in in the league the past five or six years. It's not good enough, and I am suggesting a new captain. I don't support the Tavares has to go narrative.

I can agree with some insulation for the kids, but Kampf and Jarnkrok can be replaced much cheaper and we have to believe that Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Bertuzzi, Domi, Rielly, McCabe, a few other vet D men provide the insulation. Knies, McMann and Benoit can start to fill that gap too.

 

[notbias]

Strong drafting and developing your own in a Salary Cap World is indeed the key to long term success, but as you mentioned you need TEAM players willing to buy into that and not ME players all about being the richest paid $$$$$ in the league at the expense of Cup competitiveness for everyone else and early playoff exits.

A good GM would protect his high draft picks and really build a team around those ELC contracts (with high contributing young players) and 2nd contract bridge RFA deals as those first 7 years are all cost controllable.

Leafs players greed and GM incompetence lead to Leafs missing out on all those RFA years for AM and MM and only got value from Willy on his 2ns deal.

BT now has a chance to fix this with a Marner trade bring back younger cheaper assets and picks and JT contract ending after next year leaving but 2 double digit contracts and start bottom filling the roster with home grown talent.

I am happy we have a more competent GM who doesn't waste draft picks.

 

[the real Fox mulder]

This team can't retool when Chicago owns our first next year. I do believe we'll try and be competitive with the cap space we'll have and If Easton Cowan turns out to be a fantastic player. Our window just got a extension by 5 years.

 

[Stephen]

While Tre may indeed look to retool things,.I don't think the team is able to treat the next two seasons as a transition period. They will be expected to be as competitive as possible while Matthews is under contract.

Banking everything on the final two years of Matthews current deal puts too many eggs in too few baskets

Worst comes, we just pull the plug on the whole Auston Matthews era and focus on building the strongest, most sustainable Leafs organization top to bottom that we can.

There is no justification for mortgaging the long term future of the franchise for this Matthews window when he’s the one who dictated the short runway and he’s goose egged the last two rounds he’s been in.

Our relationship with Auston is like a small market NBA team and an NBA star like we are so scared he will leave. If he does go we better look after the quality of life when he’s made his exit.

 

[notDatsyuk]

I've been saying for years that the window will only open when the current Tavares contract ends.

I stand by that, with the addendum of Marner leaving. (I have no desire to see JT re-signed, but I could tolerate a year or two at $2 or 3 per.)

 

[conFABulator]

OP I agree with you in principle but I think the window will truly begin (albeit short window) end of next season when Tavares and Marner (for sure!) will be off the cap.

Marner and Tavares cap hits
- I am not sure Marner is going to waive this season; and even if he waives that's just Marner off the cap. Tavares' cap hit will still count against the cap. Any hope that I had had that Marner will raise his game in the playoffs is basically done for now btw... too many examples in 8 years of playoff performance to show me that Marner is just a regular season performer.
- If Marner doesn't waive you can't force him to waive he will walk as UFA; Leafs must not offer him a contract

- Tavares isn't a top6 center anymore IMO; dude can't skate; and what he brings for 11 AAV is just way too pricy compared to other legit teams in the league. IMO Tavares should only be with the Leafs if he is willing to do Gio deal i.e. League Minimum; if not then thanks but no thanks!

Youngsters:
- IMO Cowen, Minten, McMann, Holmberg, Robertson*, etc... will have to play on ice mistakes and all; get minutes and experience in NHL especially the kids who haven't had much experience as playoffs is another beast so they will learn this upcoming season before they can be "ready" to go

Defense and goaltending
- IMO it will be a two year process (this offseason and next off season) to truly shape and build are Defensive core and hopefully get one stud goalie. For me Goalie is priority #1; Woll is yet to show he is a bonafide #1 IMO

Bert and Domi
- I wouldn't lock them together for 10M AAV. They MUST come in at around 8.5 AAV at max.
- something like 4 to 4.5 AAV and they decide how they wanna split it
- If both sign then Robertson should be traded; if only one of them sign then Robertson should get a top9 role and #1PP unit role if not then Robertson should be traded regardless

Conclusion
Simply put... IMO the window truly opens wide enough starting 2025-2026 season and will remain open until Matthews' contract comes to a close. Basically we will have a 3 year window to really go for it. After that it is "rebuild" again scenario.


Line up 2024-2025 season:
Domi-Matthews-Bertuzzi
Knies-Holmberg-Nylander
McMann-Tavares-Marner* (if he doesn't waive for trade)
Minten/Dewar-Kampf-Reaves/Dewar

McCabe XXX
Rielly XXX
Benoit Liljegren
Edmundson (I re-sign him)

XXX gotta find from trades or UFAs

*Trades
- Jarnkrok, Robertson,

If Marner waives then...
Domi-Matthews-Bertuzzi
Knies-Wright-Nylander (assuming trade with Seattle)
McMann-Minten-Tavares* (I'd rather develop Minten as a center)
McMann-Tavares-Cowen (another scenario if don't want Minten playing center yet but I prefer the above scenario)
Holmberg-Kampf-Reaves/Dewar

McCabe XXX
Rielly XXX
Benoit Liljegren
Edmundson (I re-sign him)

XXX gotta find from trades or UFAs

You let Minten/Cowen continue their development in the minors

*Trades
- Jarnkrok, Robertson


GOALIE
XXX
Woll

I agree with all of this. My term "two-year window" didn't mean to win the cup, it meant as the window for a re-tool, for a window to win a cup. That's confusing.

I do agree that it starts once Marner and Tavares are off the cap. The point I am making is that w should do any hint rahs or stupid prior to then to go all in this year.

I feel that two year from now is when we have a crossover of our current core Matthews, Nylander, Rielly, McCabe and Tavares being joined, supported and pushed by our next wave of Cowan, Minten, Hildeby, Niemela, and Grebenkin joining Knies, Woll, Robertson, Holmberg, McMann, and Benoit is how we build to have a chance.

If Marner is not part of the plan two years from now, he shouldn't be part of it now. I know he may not waive but I think it is worth the pressure on him to make that happen. I don't feel the same about JT.

 

[Menzinger]

Worst comes, we just pull the plug on the whole Auston Matthews era and focus on building the strongest, most sustainable Leafs organization top to bottom that we can.

There is no justification for mortgaging the long term future of the franchise for this Matthews window when he’s the one who dictated the short runway and he’s goose egged the last two rounds he’s been in.

Our relationship with Auston is like a small market NBA team and an NBA star like we are so scared he will leave. If he does go we better look after the quality of life when he’s made his exit.

Imo they need to pick a strategy and stick with it.

If they don't think they can win with Matthews trade him at the draft. If not, move what assets you need to, including futures and prospects to get the team in a sustainable winning structure. Obviously that doesn't mean you can't keep assets to help the team win either (like I have no interest trading Knies)

If things flop then rebuild the team 2029-2034, so they just need to avoid trading any major picks (yet) in that time frame

 

[Confucius]

This team can't retool when Chicago owns our first next year. I do believe we'll try and be competitive with the cap space we'll have and If Easton Cowan turns out to be a fantastic player. Our window just got an extension by 5 years.

We start with a 5th round pick. We are in great shape looking ahead. Time to pay the piper for these past glory years. lol!

 

[conFABulator]

This team can't retool when Chicago owns our first next year. I do believe we'll try and be competitive with the cap space we'll have and If Easton Cowan turns out to be a fantastic player. Our window just got a extension by 5 years.

I guess it gets into the definition of a re-tool. I agree we can't rebuild...to me re-tooling would be new GM, new coach, no longer have four guys making 50% of the cap, make way for young players, etc.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

whats the obsession with keeping Tavares around?

wouldnt want him back even if it was league min. Effective player but the team needs change.

We need to get the stink off of this team from the last 7yrs of failure...starting with MM and JT.

He might be a nice guy but his robotic lack of leadership has killed this team along with the other big names. I want them out.

 

[Stephen]

Imo they need to pick a strategy and stick with it.

If they don't think they can win with Matthews trade him at the draft. If not, move what assets you need to, including futures and prospects to get the team in a sustainable winning structure. Obviously that doesn't mean you can't keep assets to help the team win either (like I have no interest trading Knies)

If things flop then rebuild the team 2029-2034, so they just need to avoid trading any major picks (yet) in that time frame

Yeah agreed on most counts. I don’t think we could realistically decide to move Matthews this summer but if he’s not at a high playoff level over the next 2 years I can’t justify mortgaging any post Matthews drafts to try and fuel a run on his timeline.

This short runway is artificially timed for his contractual benefit. The skewed cap structure benefits Matthews and has set the whole culture under him. He’s the one not delivering when it matters. I guess my problem is we can’t go full LA Clippers for him because there’s going to be a Leafs team to worry about if and when he moves on.

 

[Nineteen67]

1. we agree

2. JT does NOT suck. If he was a FA this year he would have the most points of any FA center. Overpaid? Yes. He does not suck. I also think loyalty to a captain and hometown guy is the right thing to do organizationally.

3. I agree with this number. I said $10M OR LESS. It is Free agency and either overpay them a bit or other guys. I think these guys come for less than people outside the organization.

3 Is a big No No. Don’t over pay for FA when you’re not close to winning. Bertuzzi was over paid this season so paying him more makes no sense.

 

[Evilhomer]

whats the obsession with keeping Tavares around?

wouldnt want him back even if it was league min. Effective player but the team needs change.

I think it's the same obsession with keeping Bertuzzi. Give him a long-term contract and there will be a dozen threads here in two years about how terrible of a deal it is.

 

[Nineteen67]

This team can't retool when Chicago owns our first next year. I do believe we'll try and be competitive with the cap space we'll have and If Easton Cowan turns out to be a fantastic player. Our window just got an extension by 5 years.

If they don’t use Marner’s & Tavares’ and the rest of the UFAs money wisely it’ll never open.

 

[MajorLeaf]

Many people consider the core 4, but realistically it should be considered the core 5 with Morgan Rielly.

Rielly has played 11 seasons for the Leafs and while he hasn’t always had the best supporting defence cast he still only played 4 full seasons in his entire time with the Leafs and is now age 30 where he can potentially slow down in the near future

As part of of this retool, the Leafs management should consider trading Rielly within the next two seasons depending on who they sign in free agency on defence and trade for defence from either Marner or any other player, picks, etc.

Moving from Marner, Tavares and Rielly would help shake up this team with players that can hopefully have more heart to win as it has shown these players don’t have what it takes to make it to the next level in Toronto.

 

[conFABulator]

3 Is a big No No. Don’t over pay for FA when you’re not close to winning. Bertuzzi was over paid this season so paying him more makes no sense.

Then, let's run it back I guess, right?

I think we need to trade Marner and get some pieces back. One of those pieces will be cap space to spend on free agents.

Tell me how we do that, in Toronto without overpaying at least a bit? First of all, everyone overpays on July 1. Secondly, we are in a high tax rate, cold weather, fishbowl of a market.

The reason I want to keep Domi, Tavares and Bertuzzi (throw McCabe in next year too) is because I think we can get two of them at least in hometown discounts and the other two might be reasonable. $5ish for Bert and 4ish for Domi, seems fair and at most a slight overpay.

What's the better plan? No free agents?