The Vet vs. Prospect theory

[Rzombo4 prez]

He was on the ice against Bedard's line a lot. Bertuzzi, Bedard, Hall, Foligno, Nazer, Teravainen. They aren't exactly all stars but it's really disingenuous to say he was up against AHL competition.

Better than Compher now? Probably not. Better than Copp? I'd say a fair bit. Better skater, better passer, better stickhandler, better shot, way more physical. Copp is better on faceoffs. I think Kasper could at the minimum match Copp's production from last year with similar icetime while tilting the ice more in the right direction.

Fair, but it is still pre-season hockey being played at pre-season intensity by many vets. I like you are a big Kasper supporter. I am not, however, going to go planting flags after one pre-season game.

 

[SantosHalper]

I see more positive sides when the kids start and play in AHL until they are really ready.

First thing is that pre-season camp can be deceiving, many veterans are still shaking off the summer rust and since their jobs are secured, i don't believe that are playing like their lives depend on it. After all pre-season games are meaningless to them, they ain't looking to get hurt right before the season starts. And the other teams are playing their kids and AHL depth as well, some of those kids are still far away from NHL, so naturally our more NHL ready kids will look a whole lot better.

Pre-season camp is also quite short and 19-21 year tend to gas out after the mid point of the regular season, and that's not really good when we are hunting for a playoff spot. Quite a big risk to throw in 3-4 rookies and if/when most of them gets gassed out, who's gonna replace them? AHL depth, guys on waivers or are we going to need spent assets to acquire players? Or are we just going to call it quits and better luck next season?

Second thing is depth, injuries happen every season and who's going to replace them? AHL depth? Kids who ain't ready? Or 4th liners? It is better to start the NHL ready kids in AHL, let them build confidence and when the injuries happen, then they get called up. And when that happens, then we'll see if they are really ready. Intensity will be on the whole other level during the regular season than in the pre-season. AHL veterans stays down to help the AHL team win.

If all the NHL ready kids would be up and the injury wave happens, then the AHL vets would get called up. And that would leave the poorer AHL players and bunch of ECHL players with 20-year old rookies leading the AHL team. Then both teams would be losing, since we all know that career AHL players ain't a long term solution in NHL.

Third thing is responsibility, in AHL the most NHL ready kids will play in a big role. Top-6 on 5on5, PP1/PP2, PK1/PK2, first OT units. There they are leading the team, carrying the responsibility of their teams success. There they are not complement pieces on smaller minutes.

I like the approach what Wings have, prospects are given all the necessary time and they really have to work their way in. Some top prospects has never had to work that hard before, because they have been so talented. Their natural talent has carried them this far, so some of them haven't been really challenged before.
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But answer to the OP question.

For AlJo, since he is up, it's all up to him now. I don't see him having problems to out play Määttä and Holl. I think Gustafsson has a different role so AlJo is not really competing against him.

Motte is a 4th liner and PK-specialist, i see Mazur having much bigger potential than just a 4th liner and PK-specialist. Mazur should most definitely start in GR. Big role there 1st line, PP1, PK1/2.

 

[Gniwder]

Copp was one of our worst forwards last season. 3rd or 4th worst amongst the regular forwards from last year. Was the boat anchor on his shutdown line with Fischer and Rasmussen where plays died on his stick in the offensive zone. Copp has turned into Frans f***ing Nielsen 3 years ahead of schedule.

Finished the season with 9 points his final 30 games. Kasper was getting warmed up in his final 30.
Andrew Copp 2023-24 Splits | Hockey-Reference.com

If Kasper could not match 33 points in 79 , 15 minutes a night in the NHL then yeah, total waste of an 8th overall pick. I think Kasper could match or exceed that. And not based off a single preseason game. Based off watching most of his career for the last 3 seasons.

Did Copp's mom quit HFBoards? It's OK to post negative comments about him now?

 

[SirKillalot]

I think Vet vs Prospect depends on #1 is the prospect ready for NHL ice time and #2 their potential deployment.

If you say line 1 gets 20ish minutes a night and you have 40 to spread over the bottom 3. Are we talking lines 2/3 getting 15ish and the 4th getting 10 or less.

If a kid is getting less than 10 min a night at the NHL level but closer to 20 at the AHL level and is someone your project as having offensive upside then I think it benefits them to stay down.

If a kid will get closer to 15 a night on average and be put in at least some offensive situations then I think its more beneficial to have them stay up.

Agree with much of this.
My issue is the whole "earn the spot" thing. Cause its so inconsistently used where some get things easy and some have to be put through the whole ringer and forced into roles they aren't expected to be successful in.

If a player is projected to be a top six forward, don't stuff them in checking dump and chase never have the puck lines. If they project to be a checking line forward, don't by all forced options put them on the top line to crash and bang.

The whole "earn it" is somewhat bullshit to me. Put a player in a role he is expected to have some success in and build him out from there. Personally I don't think we should have two scoring lines and one checking line and one shut down line. I think one should strive to have one top scoring line, one top six line who have possibilities to get put in 1st line duties, and could play 3rd line mixed duties, one third line who are good two-way forwards with top six potential and one checking line with 3rd line potential.

Meaning 1st line scoring line
Two middle lines who's goal is to be scoring lines, but can defend and good two-way players / young guys with top six aspirations should be put into these lines.
A 4th line with rough players to bring defence and to a degree pain in the ass play.

Meaning aspire to have a top 9 who's looking to score goals more so than just having that 3rd line to just defend. Whenever Detroit been successful that is what we have had.

 

[Pavels Dog]

People may not want to admit it because he's a stinky vet but Motte has looked great so far.

Meaning aspire to have a top 9 who's looking to score goals more so than just having that 3rd line to just defend. Whenever Detroit been successful that is what we have had.

We had 10 forwards with 30+ points last season. 7 with 40+ points. Some of the best depth in the league. In no reality did we build our forward group last season just to defend, on any line.

 

[19 for president]

People may not want to admit it because he's a stinky vet but Motte has looked great so far.



We had 10 forwards with 30+ points last season. 7 with 40+ points. Some of the best depth in the league. In no reality did we build our forward group last season just to defend, on any line.

Its funny because I'm not even sure if Motte is really the guy that these kids are competing against. I feel like that is more Veleno even though he just re-signed. Motte is definitely a special teams guy in that he is a fairly good PKer. Veleno has a bit of PK/PP time but I don't think anyone would really argue he is particularly good at either. He also isn't a faceoff specialist.

If Danielson or Kasper show they can center a line, I think it is Veleno that loses his spot and is dealt.

You could easily run something like:

DBC-Larks-Ray
Tank-Compher-Kane
Berg-Danielson/Kasper-Ras
Motte-Copp-Fisher

Motte would only need to come into play if say both a center prospect and Mazur were to make the team. Maybe Kasper could take Motte's role too, but I don't feel like Stevie will keep him up if he is going to be in a shut down only role.

 

[Henkka]

Its funny because I'm not even sure if Motte is really the guy that these kids are competing against. I feel like that is more Veleno even though he just re-signed. Motte is definitely a special teams guy in that he is a fairly good PKer.

If Danielson or Kasper show they can center a line, I think it is Veleno that loses his spot and is dealt.

That's how I feel too.

I would put Veleno to get inflated scoring from Patrik Kane. Then he will get dealt, because his production does look good for outsiders.

Just like Yzerman did with Namestnikov at Tampa. He was the Center for Kucherov for a moment, and then was dealt. Never reached that production level again.

 

[19 for president]

That's how I feel too.

I would put Veleno to get inflated scoring from Patrik Kane. Then he will get dealt, because his production does look good for outsiders.

Just like Yzerman did with Namestnikov at Tampa. He was the Center for Kucherov for a moment, and then was dealt. Never reached that production level again.

The other thing is that the Wings could easily clear cap to bring up a kid and keep Motte safe as the 13th forward by sending down one of Holl, Gus, or Husso. Since Motte only makes 800k and the kids all make sub 1 mil base, we can create the space needed pretty easily. The likelihood of those 3 guys being picked up on waivers is pretty slim especially Holl and Husso at full cap hits.

I also expect Ras to be pushed to take a bigger role this year. I could see them pushing him back to center or trying to work him into a more offensive role. So I would not be surprised to see Motte slip into that spot on the Copp line.

 

[Petes2424]

AlJo or Gust?

Mazur or Motte?

What are you REALLY getting, or not getting, by playing a washed up below average Vet, as opposed to the inexperienced, yet upside having Prospect?

Experience and specialists. Motte is one of the best 4th liners in the NHL, and Gustavsson keeps getting jobs because he has some elite offense to his game.

I think one thing Detroit fans have to come to terms with (by now) with Yzerman is… he’s a firm believer in young players earning their spot on a team. He’s probably freaking out mentally that Johansson and Berggren are no longer waiver exempt.

He’s very, very old school in the regard and that’s understandable coming from the Detroit Red Wings. They believe in developing players into complete players.

In a way, if you really think about it, it’s hard to argue with how he handled Edvinsson now. Not with as good as he was those last 15-20 games.

He always said, when he makes the move for good, it’s not gonna be to play on that bottom pairing, 12 minutes a night, or to be protected.. It was going to be when Edvinsson was ready to play the role they’ve been preparing him to play since they drafted him. The reason they drafted him.

That kid walked right into a playoff race and was their 2nd best Dman, carrying a pairing 20+ minutes a night. Who’s completely earned his spot now.

In comparison, look how much the kids in NJ, and Jiricek or Brandt Clarke struggled at times last year. All 4 of those kids who are in that Edvinsson range of player, still need major protection in the NHL, and Edvinsson is carrying a Top 4 pair already? Even with Hughes and his offensive output, he’s been horrible in his own end. They didn’t make the playoffs last year because of how bad Nemec and Hughes were defensively.

So it is hard to argue. This summer NJ had to also go out and get expensive veterans to help protect those kids. Columbus got smart and sent Jiricek down last year to play major minutes like Edvinsson was. I bet you it pays off this year.

I’m of the belief, if you can develop them properly, you do it. Veleno, Rasmussen and Zadina didn’t have that luxury. They didn’t have enough NHL talent to allow those guys to develop properly. So it’s taken longer and one kid is ruined..

I’d wager in 2 years, Edvinsson, Kasper, etc, are 200’, play in all situations, who are really good NHL players, where guys like Nemec and Hughes have a major flaw in their game still. A flaw that either never gets fixed, or they’ll be 25-26 before it’s fixed because of maturity, experience and/or the player working on his game by himself over the summer. Much like a Rasmussen, who watch him take a major jump over the next year still. He had what? 2.5 seasons of development 100% wasted? Not even counting his NHL games he wasn’t learning anything. He was surviving out there.

He’s still developed into a really solid NHL player, but what could’ve he been? Or still might end up when he’s 26? When it could’ve been 23-24. He played a whole lot of NHL games where he was learning on the fly, where he should’ve been playing #1 C minutes in Grand Rapids. Even when Yzerman sent him down, they had to bring him back too soon, because they needed players. Same with Veleno. He needed at least another season in the AHL. Maybe more.

I can’t remember the statistic they use and it’s been a minute, but with high end prospects (Top 50 picks) for every AHL Game of experience developing, it’s worth like 3 NHL games on average, under the age of 22 or 23…. that’s the age I can’t remember. Pretty sure it’s 23.

Also, by the time a player is 26, which is fully developed, he is generally a less complete player if he doesn’t have those 150-200 AHL games under 22-23 years old.

26-33 are considered your prime earning years. Also, a player who plays 150+ AHL games before becoming an NHL regular, plays more NHL games between 30-35, and the reason given? They’re usually much more responsible veteran players. Your natural goal scorer who can’t score anymore, really can’t do anything else types, are forced out of the league already.

So it’s always nice when a kid is so good like Lucas Raymond, that he’s already in the NHL and still gets better every year. Those type of kids are special players. But for every Raymond there’s 10 players like Dawson Mercer in NJ.. Who a team is blinded by his initial success, and he’s a very up and down player already. Who unless he commits to getting better outside of the season, he’s never going to grow the other areas of his game.

To me, that’s why you make a kid earn it. Don’t just hand a young kid an NHL job. If you want your NHL team to have any success, you really do keep adding to your roster, until he has. Last year, I think Edvinsson was ready to play earlier in the year, but we’re really only talking half of a season to argue about. It’ll be meaningless in 3 years. I think a Danielson and Kasper are in very similar positions now. If you end up having to get rid of players when the kids do earn those spots? It’ll usually work out for you with picks, etc.

I actually believe one or both, is gonna end up getting their big chance with an injury, and force Detroit to keep them after that. If one makes the team out of camp, my guess is they’ll trade Copp and move Compher to 3C. I doubt they will keep either to start the year, playing a role they don’t envision the kid playing in the NHL.

Detroit fans never had to be patient before these last 3-4 years. Kids like Datsyuk just appeared out of nowhere because they team was always good. Those players were still developing behind the scenes though. It’s just nobody was impatient, because the team was always winning.

I’m not sure very many fans truly understood how long it takes to develop NHL players, because they were always enjoying the NHL team so much.

Pittsburgh fans are about to find this out too. They’re gonna be in for a long road coming up soon. Although they always seem to win lotteries. lol.

 

[SirKillalot]

We had 10 forwards with 30+ points last season. 7 with 40+ points. Some of the best depth in the league. In no reality did we build our forward group last season just to defend, on any line.

I believe we need more, we need more assists in general from guys, meaning we get more goals.

We had no 40 goals scorers.
We had two 30-goals scorers.
We had four 20-goals scorers.
Though we had four guys above 15 goals.

But, lets say we don't get any 40 goals scorers, or maybe one.
We ideally need to have seven 20 goals scorers, could be less if some more score more than 30 or one 40+.
But we need more points, only had 3 guys scoring more than 60 points, it's not good enough.
Only four had more than 50 points.
Seven forwards above 40 points I don't think it's a lot. It's not bad, but also needs to improve. I think it will, we are getting there. But, need to keep taking those steps.
But my point is the young guys got to be put into those roles where they are expected to thrive, and we should aim at having 9 forwards or three lines who do score more.

 

[SirKillalot]

Detroit fans never had to be patient before these last 3-4 years. Kids like Datsyuk just appeared out of nowhere because they team was always good. Those players were still developing behind the scenes though. It’s just nobody was impatient, because the team was always winning.

Well the team was winning, but you also put Datsyuk and Zetterberg into positions where they could succeed. You didn't tell them, hey forget offense, play 4th line checking hard duties and work on defensive game only.

As long as you put players in roles or positions where you give them the opportunity to be able to succeed. And then build their craft from there. Then you could push them up and down the lineup if they got comfortable and you were a winning team to keep developing them.

Of course now its a bit different as its not a winning team right now, but I think the premise got to stay the same.

We can complain about Zadina not getting it, but my issue is I don't think he was handled well either.
Same with Cholowski back in the day. He started quite well, though way too soon on the big team, then got pushed into roles not expected of his player type neither in the big team or AHL either.
Its about knowing what you draft and molding them out from that perspective.

It's the same in other sports, you don't draft one guy and play him as something you didn't draft.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I believe we need more, we need more assists in general from guys, meaning we get more goals.

We had no 40 goals scorers.
We had two 30-goals scorers.
We had four 20-goals scorers.
Though we had four guys above 15 goals.

We are close to the top of the league in all those categories basically. You are overestimating the rest of the league it seems.

Seven forwards above 40 points I don't think it's a lot.

Only Dallas had more. We were tied with LA for 2nd most 40 point forwards in the league.

But we need more points, only had 3 guys scoring more than 60 points, it's not good enough.

Only Dallas, Edmonton, Florida, Minnesota, NYR, Ottawa, Tampa and Toronto had more. Other than Minny and Ottawa those are contenders.

Only four had more than 50 points.

Again, that's a really good level leaguewide.

Our depth will improve as talented youngsters take the next step, but biggest reason we were competitive last season was already our superior scoring depth to most other teams.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Well the team was winning, but you also put Datsyuk and Zetterberg into positions where they could succeed. You didn't tell them, hey forget offense, play 4th line checking hard duties and work on defensive game only.

As long as you put players in roles or positions where you give them the opportunity to be able to succeed. And then build their craft from there. Then you could push them up and down the lineup if they got comfortable and you were a winning team to keep developing them.

Of course now its a bit different as its not a winning team right now, but I think the premise got to stay the same.
t
We can complain about Zadina not getting it, but my issue is I don't think he was handled well either.
Same with Cholowski back in the day. He started quite well, though way too soon on the big team, then got pushed into roles not expected of his player type neither in the big team or AHL either.
Its about knowing what you draft and molding them out from that perspective.

It's the same in other sports, you don't draft one guy and play him as something you didn't draft.

Both Zadina and Cholowski had opportunities on multiple teams and couldn't stick in the NHL. What more possibly could have been done for Zadina here in Detroit?

There may be rare instances where a player's development adversely affects their performance, but by in large it's simply that they turned out to be not as good as hoped when drafted.

 

[SirKillalot]

Our depth will improve as talented youngsters take the next step, but biggest reason we were competitive last season was already our superior scoring depth to most other teams.

Our "superior scoring depth" landed us a spot outside the playoffs.
Now I'm fine with it, we're developing. I'm just saying I don't really give much effort into what other teams have and not have. The standard I want to see needs to be more.
Should have a goal of seven 20-goal scorers and more than seven forwards hitting 40 points, or okay lets say your premise that its okay to land seven at 40, then more of those 7 hitting more points than they do. Either way we need to score more goals as a team, while also improving defensively.

Now I think it will come, just saying it should be a goal to go in that direction.

Both Zadina and Cholowski had opportunities on multiple teams and couldn't stick in the NHL. What more possibly could have been done for Zadina here in Detroit?

There may be rare instances where a player's development adversely affects their performance, but by in large it's simply that they turned out to be not as good as hoped when drafted.

Zadina was shafted in Detroit by asking him becoming a checking forward. I don't take what happened in San Jose too seriously the whole team was for the most part a wreck. He is 24, he can get 2 solid years in Switzerland and come back.

Cholowski hasn't really been given a proper chance elsewhere when we talk about in NHL.
Where he is now, the Islanders had a full d-core when he came and still has. Btw their playing style doesn't fit him in anyway either so he is in the wrong team atm regardless. Which is my whole point, if Washington had given him a solid chance like they have done with others at times, think he could have fit their playing style better.

Its hard for players when they are being asked to be or become a player they aren't.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Zadina was shafted in Detroit by asking him becoming a checking forward. I don't take what happened in San Jose too seriously the whole team was for the most part a wreck. He is 24, he can get 2 solid years in Switzerland and come back.

Cholowski hasn't really been given a proper chance elsewhere when we talk about in NHL.
Where he is now, the Islanders had a full d-core when he came and still has. Btw their playing style doesn't fit him in anyway either so he is in the wrong team atm regardless. Which is my whole point, if Washington had given him a solid chance like they have done with others at times, think he could have fit their playing style better.

Its hard for players when they are being asked to be or become a player they aren't.

Zadina wasn't asked to become a checking forward, he simply couldn't score goals. In San Jose he had zero pressure and expectations and couldn't prove himself as anything more than an AHL/NHL tweener. You really think Zadina will be back in the NHL in 2 years?

There's a reason Cholowski hasn't caught on anywhere else either. He had opportunities with the Wings, Kraken, Capitals, and now Islanders. You think all those NHL coaches and their AHL affiliates aren't utilizing him properly?

They simply weren't good enough. It happens sometimes when you're trying to project the future of 18 year olds.

 

[Petes2424]

Rasmussen was probably the best defensive forward on Detroit last year. He's someone I'm fine keeping around in the bottom 6. There are 5 other players in the bottom 6 I want gone before him.

When people rip on Rasmussen, they’d literally be laughed out of an NHL scouting/coach’s meeting.

He does all the little things, and he’s very hard to play against, at his size, with that reach. They’re a much better team when he’s in the lineup. Copp does a lot of those same things. Rasmussen is properly paid, Copp is overpaid. Doesn’t degrade what either does as a player, just because they don’t score enough for the stat watchers.

We now live in this generation of “Stat Watcher” sports fans. Who rarely watch games and judge everything on statistics. Even those who watch, many have been programmed the same way. Stats mean everything to this generation of sport fans. They even make up analytics to judge random things. What they can never make up though, is there’s 4 other skaters on the ice. All of varying degrees of skill, etc. not to mention opposing players and goaltenders of varying degrees of talent.

If an NHL player is on the ice for 1000 minutes, ask yourself how many of those minutes is the puck on a player’s stick?? Then obviously how many minutes he’s playing without the puck AND what he’s doing during that time?

Literally, over 99% of your NHL career, you’re playing the game without the puck. Exactly why the “stat watchers” have no business judging hockey players, as hockey players. Maybe as goal scorers, but not hockey players.

As for Rasmussen, his game has finally slowed down (for him) over the last 18 months or so. You can physically see how good of a player he’s becoming, if you understand the game and what he’s being asked to do.

Once the game slows down for a young player, that’s when he’s now gonna settle into what he’ll be for the next 7-10 years. His scoring will go up some, and as his role settles, and so will his point totals. We still don’t have that answer on Rasmussen, because he can play a variety of roles. For example, two years ago, most of his points came as a net front presence. Last year, he got no PP time and little time playing that role. If he’s used as a net front presence on the PP, his point totals will probably rise 10-15 points, as his scoring rose from standard 5 on 5 play. They used him in more of a defensive role last year too.

Over the next year or so, he’ll settle into his complete game.

So why on earth would they get rid of a guy they spent all that time developing, just as they’re finally seeing it all pay off? We’ll see where his point totals end up settling, but as of right now, he does a whole lot of the work that allows his line mates to become more productive players as well.

When you watch opposing telecasts over the last year or so, one of the things you hear the most? “Wow, we never realized how good Rasmussen was.”

So it’s a shame, so many of Detroit’s own fans don’t appreciate what he does. There’s a reason he’s on practically every starting face off, of every period, and after every goal.. No matter what line it is. Those who don’t like him, watch that every night. If the Wings gain possession, he immediately changes. If they don’t, he’s the player they trust the most, to be on the ice to start the period from a defensive position.

Stat watchers do the same thing, even worse, with Dmen too. They judge everything on statistics. For hockey people, it’s beyond frustrating.

 

[Gniwder]

Zadina was shafted in Detroit by asking him becoming a checking forward. I don't take what happened in San Jose too seriously the whole team was for the most part a wreck. He is 24, he can get 2 solid years in Switzerland and come back.

Cholowski hasn't really been given a proper chance elsewhere when we talk about in NHL.
Where he is now, the Islanders had a full d-core when he came and still has. Btw their playing style doesn't fit him in anyway either so he is in the wrong team atm regardless. Which is my whole point, if Washington had given him a solid chance like they have done with others at times, think he could have fit their playing style better.

Its hard for players when they are being asked to be or become a player they aren't.

Zadina has one of the lowest IQ of any player I've ever seen on a NHL roster. He simply wasn't able to make any adjustments to his game at all. He'd try to split 2 defenders with the puck, over pursue on defense, and completely whiff on one timers.

Cholo was scared to touch anyone. He's actually gotten a fair chance with every team he's been on. Seattle let him play despite having a bunch of AHL/NHL tweener defensemen. His flaws are ridiculously obvious when he plays.

Both could have used more time in GR, but Blash was desperate for any sort of talent. Jumping into the NHL too early just reinforces bad habits, but neither really looked like they would have been significantly better elsewhere.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Our "superior scoring depth" landed us a spot outside the playoffs.

Which had far more to do with goaltending and defense than lack of scoring. Your hopes of more than half the lineup having 20+ goals and 40+ points is pretty unrealistic as something sustainable.

Either way we need to score more goals as a team, while also improving defensively.

We were top 10 in goals last season. I don't necessarily agree more goalscoring is immediately needed. If we scored another 5 goals we'd have been top 6 in the league. That's pretty good for a team still a few years away from it's prime.

Zadina was shafted in Detroit by asking him becoming a checking forward. I don't take what happened in San Jose too seriously the whole team was for the most part a wreck. He is 24, he can get 2 solid years in Switzerland and come back.

Its hard for players when they are being asked to be or become a player they aren't.

Zadina was "shafted" because he couldn't score. Like, he literally COULD NOT score. Why would someone ask a guy to be a scoring forward if he can not score?

Are we asking Lucas Raymond to become a bottom 6 checking forward? No? Weird how that works.

 

[DoMakc]

When people rip on Rasmussen, they’d literally be laughed out of an NHL scouting/coach’s meeting.

He does all the little things, and he’s very hard to play against, at his size, with that reach. They’re a much better team when he’s in the lineup. Copp does a lot of those same things. Rasmussen is properly paid, Copp is overpaid. Doesn’t degrade what either does as a player, just because they don’t score enough for the stat watchers.

We now live in this generation of “Stat Watcher” sports fans. Who rarely watch games and judge everything on statistics. Even those who watch, many have been programmed the same way. Stats mean everything to this generation of sport fans. They even make up analytics to judge random things. What they can never make up though, is there’s 4 other skaters on the ice. All of varying degrees of skill, etc. not to mention opposing players and goaltenders of varying degrees of talent.

If an NHL player is on the ice for 1000 minutes, ask yourself how many of those minutes is the puck on a player’s stick?? Then obviously how many minutes he’s playing without the puck AND what he’s doing during that time?

Literally, over 99% of your NHL career, you’re playing the game without the puck. Exactly why the “stat watchers” have no business judging hockey players, as hockey players. Maybe as goal scorers, but not hockey players.

As for Rasmussen, his game has finally slowed down (for him) over the last 18 months or so. You can physically see how good of a player he’s becoming, if you understand the game and what he’s being asked to do.

Once the game slows down for a young player, that’s when he’s now gonna settle into what he’ll be for the next 7-10 years. His scoring will go up some, and as his role settles, and so will his point totals. We still don’t have that answer on Rasmussen, because he can play a variety of roles. For example, two years ago, most of his points came as a net front presence. Last year, he got no PP time and little time playing that role. If he’s used as a net front presence on the PP, his point totals will probably rise 10-15 points, as his scoring rose from standard 5 on 5 play. They used him in more of a defensive role last year too.

Over the next year or so, he’ll settle into his complete game.

So why on earth would they get rid of a guy they spent all that time developing, just as they’re finally seeing it all pay off? We’ll see where his point totals end up settling, but as of right now, he does a whole lot of the work that allows his line mates to become more productive players as well.

When you watch opposing telecasts over the last year or so, one of the things you hear the most? “Wow, we never realized how good Rasmussen was.”

So it’s a shame, so many of Detroit’s own fans don’t appreciate what he does. There’s a reason he’s on practically every starting face off, of every period, and after every goal.. No matter what line it is. Those who don’t like him, watch that every night. If the Wings gain possession, he immediately changes. If they don’t, he’s the player they trust the most, to be on the ice to start the period from a defensive position.

Stat watchers do the same thing, even worse, with Dmen too. They judge everything on statistics. For hockey people, it’s beyond frustrating.

I like Rasmussen and don't hate Copp, but this "stats are bad,mkay" rant is wrong. The discussion analytics vs. trained eye in sports is done and analytics side has won. You can see it everywhere, but changes in baseball is the most obvious example, the game is different now and some rule changes where even triggered by analytics. Even hockey is now perceived differently because of analytics with Brian Burke hockey of truculence being dead because of it.

The main focus of critisism for analytics is actually not the "watch the game" crowd, but those who use very limited stats to evalute players. It is actually "analytics" crowd who actually point how those traditional stats are lacking context and not very predictive. And in the long run analytics will be equally or even more important than scouting, because they provide objective view and do not depend on how well is the watching eyed trained and what kind of bias it has.

The main issue with analytics is that people take the numbers produced for the face value, without understanding underlying assumptions, its limitation and other factors impact the numbers. I actually think that Dom Luszczyszyn and Athletc have done a really bad job of putting their model with 50/60/70 accuracy into the center of their reporting and basically selling it as 100% accurate. If you look on other prominent cases for use of analytics, Nate Silver does a way better job to explain limitations of the model and how to interpret it outcome. A little bit more critical and responsible reporting here would actually increase confidence in analytics.

Take expected goals, it very useful stat which actually supposed to provide a better interpretation to raw shot count, Corsi/Fenwick and so on. Is it perfect? No. It is not taking a lot of thing into account like position of players, which has huge impact on actual expectation from a shot. It is impacted by certain style of hockey. It is impacted by game score and situation, which is also not taken into account (e.g. were losing games on expected goals, due to them getting a huge lead already in first period and sitting on it, while other team were throqing everything on goal without actually creating a lot of dangerous chances) It is even aggregated mathematically incorrectly. But is it useful? Or is it more usefull than just counting raw shots? Absolutely, it provides you with certain inputs, because instead of saying Wings were shit, you can ask you see this picture and try to derive certain actions from that. Without proper analytics teams are going to be left behind, because at least the teams who are using it will be able to provide a checked for naked eye and derive additional insights, by being able to ask questions why the results are such as they are.

 

[Henkka]

I like Rasmussen and don't hate Copp, but this "stats are bad,mkay" rant is wrong. The discussion analytics vs. trained eye in sports is done and analytics side has won. You can see it everywhere, but changes in baseball is the most obvious example, the game is different now and some rule changes where even triggered by analytics. Even hockey is now perceived differently because of analytics with Brian Burke hockey of truculence being dead because of it.

The main focus of critisism for analytics is actually not the "watch the game" crowd, but those who use very limited stats to evalute players. It is actually "analytics" crowd who actually point how those traditional stats are lacking context and not very predictive. And in the long run analytics will be equally or even more important than scouting, because they provide objective view and do not depend on how well is the watching eyed trained and what kind of bias it has.

The main issue with analytics is that people take the numbers produced for the face value, without understanding underlying assumptions, its limitation and other factors impact the numbers. I actually think that Dom Luszczyszyn and Athletc have done a really bad job of putting their model with 50/60/70 accuracy into the center of their reporting and basically selling it as 100% accurate. If you look on other prominent cases for use of analytics, Nate Silver does a way better job to explain limitations of the model and how to interpret it outcome. A little bit more critical and responsible reporting here would actually increase confidence in analytics.

Take expected goals, it very useful stat which actually supposed to provide a better interpretation to raw shot count, Corsi/Fenwick and so on. Is it perfect? No. It is not taking a lot of thing into account like position of players, which has huge impact on actual expectation from a shot. It is impacted by certain style of hockey. It is impacted by game score and situation, which is also not taken into account (e.g. were losing games on expected goals, due to them getting a huge lead already in first period and sitting on it, while other team were throqing everything on goal without actually creating a lot of dangerous chances) It is even aggregated mathematically incorrectly. But is it useful? Or is it more usefull than just counting raw shots? Absolutely, it provides you with certain inputs, because instead of saying Wings were shit, you can ask you see this picture and try to derive certain actions from that. Without proper analytics teams are going to be left behind, because at least the teams who are using it will be able to provide a checked for naked eye and derive additional insights, by being able to ask questions why the results are such as they are.

Love your post.

Would you marry me?

 

[Pavels Dog]

The discussion analytics vs. trained eye in sports is done and analytics side has won.

Yet analytics hasn't won. Even the people working in those areas for NHL teams don't think it's analytics > everything as much as a combined approach that incorporates analytics as part of the puzzle. And that's private models, that are far superior to what's publically available.

The main focus of critisism for analytics is actually not the "watch the game" crowd, but those who use very limited stats to evalute players. It is actually "analytics" crowd who actually point how those traditional stats are lacking context and not very predictive.

The problem is hockey by it's nature is very unpredictable. Any team can win any game. Players and teams break the models each season. Even the best public analytic models kinda suck at predicting the standings. The best performing prediction last season was the betting odds, with sites like MoneyPuck performing WORSE than a simple fan vote.

 

[Indrid Cold]

When people rip on Rasmussen, they’d literally be laughed out of an NHL scouting/coach’s meeting.

He does all the little things, and he’s very hard to play against, at his size, with that reach. They’re a much better team when he’s in the lineup. Copp does a lot of those same things. Rasmussen is properly paid, Copp is overpaid. Doesn’t degrade what either does as a player, just because they don’t score enough for the stat watchers.

We now live in this generation of “Stat Watcher” sports fans. Who rarely watch games and judge everything on statistics. Even those who watch, many have been programmed the same way. Stats mean everything to this generation of sport fans. They even make up analytics to judge random things. What they can never make up though, is there’s 4 other skaters on the ice. All of varying degrees of skill, etc. not to mention opposing players and goaltenders of varying degrees of talent.

If an NHL player is on the ice for 1000 minutes, ask yourself how many of those minutes is the puck on a player’s stick?? Then obviously how many minutes he’s playing without the puck AND what he’s doing during that time?

Literally, over 99% of your NHL career, you’re playing the game without the puck. Exactly why the “stat watchers” have no business judging hockey players, as hockey players. Maybe as goal scorers, but not hockey players.

As for Rasmussen, his game has finally slowed down (for him) over the last 18 months or so. You can physically see how good of a player he’s becoming, if you understand the game and what he’s being asked to do.

Once the game slows down for a young player, that’s when he’s now gonna settle into what he’ll be for the next 7-10 years. His scoring will go up some, and as his role settles, and so will his point totals. We still don’t have that answer on Rasmussen, because he can play a variety of roles. For example, two years ago, most of his points came as a net front presence. Last year, he got no PP time and little time playing that role. If he’s used as a net front presence on the PP, his point totals will probably rise 10-15 points, as his scoring rose from standard 5 on 5 play. They used him in more of a defensive role last year too.

Over the next year or so, he’ll settle into his complete game.

So why on earth would they get rid of a guy they spent all that time developing, just as they’re finally seeing it all pay off? We’ll see where his point totals end up settling, but as of right now, he does a whole lot of the work that allows his line mates to become more productive players as well.

When you watch opposing telecasts over the last year or so, one of the things you hear the most? “Wow, we never realized how good Rasmussen was.”

So it’s a shame, so many of Detroit’s own fans don’t appreciate what he does. There’s a reason he’s on practically every starting face off, of every period, and after every goal.. No matter what line it is. Those who don’t like him, watch that every night. If the Wings gain possession, he immediately changes. If they don’t, he’s the player they trust the most, to be on the ice to start the period from a defensive position.

Stat watchers do the same thing, even worse, with Dmen too. They judge everything on statistics. For hockey people, it’s beyond frustrating.

99% of their career WITHOUT the puck. That really puts things into context.

 

[19 for president]

Game watching and analytics have to be used hand in hand to get a true understanding of a player.

Watching Seider last year I'd say it wasn't personally his best season as a Wing, but it was also no where near as bad as the analytics made it out to be because they did not take into consideration the amount of dzone starts and the quality of competition he faced.

In general I don't think analytics does the best job when it comes to defensive impacts. The stats simply aren't as easy to measure in hockey.

As much as I loved Datsyuk, between him and Z I'm taking Z 10/10 times if I need someone go out for that dzone start with 1 minute left in the game or if I needed someone to shutdown another star player. I don't think a majority of Wings fans would disagree with this either, and yet 20-30 years from now people would look back at analytics and the fact that Datsyuk won 3 Selkes and probably conclude that he was the better defensive player. Datsyuk had the measurable defensive metrics (takeaways, possession, good faceoff metrics). He was one of the best neutral zone defenders/ transition players to ever play the game, but in the defensive zone I take Z.

Analytics & stats don't tell you the difference in impact of a Justin Abdelkader hit vs a Nik Kronwall hit. But you can conclude that a guy with 10 hits is probably not a super physical player.

I also find of the major sports there is a lot more room for bias in hockey stats than in others. Was something a giveaway or a takeaway. Was it a hit or just mutual contact. What constitutes a faceoff win when it isn't a clear win. What is a block vs a deflection. A guys can get a +/- without have impact whatsoever on the play. Who is given an assist on a play when the opposing team has some impact on the puck before the goal goes in. Even possession can be biased because there are a lot more neutral/toss up situations in hockey than the other 3 major sports.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

I like Rasmussen and don't hate Copp, but this "stats are bad,mkay" rant is wrong. The discussion analytics vs. trained eye in sports is done and analytics side has won. You can see it everywhere, but changes in baseball is the most obvious example, the game is different now and some rule changes where even triggered by analytics. Even hockey is now perceived differently because of analytics with Brian Burke hockey of truculence being dead because of it.

The main focus of critisism for analytics is actually not the "watch the game" crowd, but those who use very limited stats to evalute players. It is actually "analytics" crowd who actually point how those traditional stats are lacking context and not very predictive. And in the long run analytics will be equally or even more important than scouting, because they provide objective view and do not depend on how well is the watching eyed trained and what kind of bias it has.

The main issue with analytics is that people take the numbers produced for the face value, without understanding underlying assumptions, its limitation and other factors impact the numbers. I actually think that Dom Luszczyszyn and Athletc have done a really bad job of putting their model with 50/60/70 accuracy into the center of their reporting and basically selling it as 100% accurate. If you look on other prominent cases for use of analytics, Nate Silver does a way better job to explain limitations of the model and how to interpret it outcome. A little bit more critical and responsible reporting here would actually increase confidence in analytics.

Take expected goals, it very useful stat which actually supposed to provide a better interpretation to raw shot count, Corsi/Fenwick and so on. Is it perfect? No. It is not taking a lot of thing into account like position of players, which has huge impact on actual expectation from a shot. It is impacted by certain style of hockey. It is impacted by game score and situation, which is also not taken into account (e.g. were losing games on expected goals, due to them getting a huge lead already in first period and sitting on it, while other team were throqing everything on goal without actually creating a lot of dangerous chances) It is even aggregated mathematically incorrectly. But is it useful? Or is it more usefull than just counting raw shots? Absolutely, it provides you with certain inputs, because instead of saying Wings were shit, you can ask you see this picture and try to derive certain actions from that. Without proper analytics teams are going to be left behind, because at least the teams who are using it will be able to provide a checked for naked eye and derive additional insights, by being able to ask questions why the results are such as they are.

Analytics in hockey are awful. Just absolutely terrible. Analytics work in baseball and football because you get a maximum amount of truly unique data points with a start and an ending. Almost every play is a discrete event that you can actually predict with some kind of ability because you have a mass quantity of comparable points. In hockey, you get the individual faceoffs sure, but every non faceoff rush or defense has players in different spots and different levels of preparation. It would be like if you tried divining a dude’s OPS in baseball, but every pitch the shift is on in a different manner and the batter has a split second to recognize the new alignment.

 

[David D]

What I really think is:

1. Mazur will replace Christian Fischer, partially at this season, for next season 100%.
2. Veleno will be traded in Defenceman-package, either Danielson or Kasper will take his spot.
3. Motte proably gone after season, either Danielson or Kasper will take his spot.
4. Söderblom probably out of waiver options at next season, so takes the 13th "snively spot".

If Kane leaves, that will open a spot. I hope he will stay, if he is still elite vet.

At defence:
Either Johansson or Wallinder is traded for a legit Top4 D. Johansson will get his chance after any injury for 2024-25 season or if Gustafsson is a disaster.

After 1 year or at trade deadline:
Chiarot - Seider
Edvinsson - Legit Top4 RD
Määttä - Gustafsson (at 2024-25)
Johansson/Wallinder - Holl/Gustafsson (at 2025-26)

Määttä, Petry walk out as UFA at next summer.

I think MBN makes it before Elmar unless Elmar shows more intensity to his game