Blue Jays Discussion: The trade deadline approaches (Tue, Aug 2 at 6pm ET/3pm PT) and the market is taking shape

[MAB1]

Correct, I'm glad you finally did some research here. The meat of the package (aside from Gore) was 3 high-A guys. I'm glad you learned something today.



You continue to miss the point entirely. They dealt a prospect who became a star. It didn't ruin their franchise. You needn't live in fear and ignorance.

Which is completely different than going all-in now to maximize the cheap core like you stated lmao. Trading prospects here and there is fine, especially when you have significant depth at the position. Emptying your farm system to maximize a 3 year window when you could've had a 5-10 year window if you just left it alone is the issue.

 

[Pink Mist]

Cant believe we traded for this guy without doing the due diligence on finding out that he'd actually get vaxxed

 

[Eyedea]

I actually liked Bass as a Jay - imo this is a fine pickup.

I wouldn't say he's dominating though with a K/9 of 9, despite what his ERA says. Definitely due for a regression imo. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Still top 30 in xERA, has 80%+ percentiles in EV, hard hit%, and chase rate. Part of the problem with the Hader's and Iglesias' is that when they get hit, they get bombed. Trevor Richards is another example. He can generate a lot of whiffs, but when he gets hit it's bad news. Bass is like a better Yimi, and like Yimi he's gotten better as the season has gone on.

Major League Leaderboards - 2022 - Relievers | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Here's how the relievers have looked recently. Yes SSS, but Jays as a team rank 5th in K-BB rate during that span, 3rd in ERA. It absolutely looks unsustainable with the lowest BABIP and 2nd highest LOB%, but the HR rate spiked because of Romo, Beasley, Thornton, and Lawrence which effectively made the team have a 0 fWAR pen during that span. I feel like they addressed their main issues in the pen by getting guys that limit those HRs (Bass and Pop), and also getting GBs and weak contact. If we think Bass will regress, there's also reason to think Pop will improve.

 

[Woodman19]

All I know is we needed pitching upgrades and we got 2 hard throwing RP who are clear upgrades on what we had and one SP who looks like Stripling 2.0 (better from a Dodgers friend who was upset to lose White).

 

[Kurtz]

LOL

Abrams - 47.1 BTV (MLB)
Hassell - 38.7 BTV (A+)
Gore - 29.6 BTV (MLB)
Wood + Susana = 28.1 BTV (A, ROK)

So 76.70 BTV coming from MLB players, 66.80 coming from players in A+ at most, the main piece of which has an ETA of 2023 so not a typical A+ talent.

"Most of the value of that package is currently in High-A"

I don't want to continue boring everyone else, but when I pointed out that the meat of the trade was high-A guys you seemed shocked...but are now pivoting to Hassell (imo the #1 piece here despite what I can only assume are outdated BTV ratings) maybe not counting as a A+ guy because he's a really really good A+ guy. Ok.

Which is completely different than going all-in now to maximize the cheap core like you stated lmao. Trading prospects here and there is fine, especially when you have significant depth at the position. Emptying your farm system to maximize a 3 year window when you could've had a 5-10 year window if you just left it alone is the issue.

No one has suggested going "all-in" in this thread, although yes, I'd have gladly done so for Soto or Ohtani.

 

[McFly2544]

Cant believe we traded for this guy without doing the due diligence on finding out that he'd actually get vaxxed

OR…just maybe…they do know and can’t say anything about it due to confidentiality

 

[Kurtz]

Still top 30 in xERA, has 80%+ percentiles in EV, hard hit%, and chase rate. Part of the problem with the Hader's and Iglesias' is that when they get hit, they get bombed. Trevor Richards is another example. He can generate a lot of whiffs, but when he gets hit it's bad news. Bass is like a better Yimi, and like Yimi he's gotten better as the season has gone on.

Major League Leaderboards - 2022 - Relievers | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Here's how the relievers have looked recently. Yes SSS, but Jays as a team rank 5th in K-BB rate during that span, 3rd in ERA. It absolutely looks unsustainable with the lowest BABIP and 2nd highest LOB%, but the HR rate spiked because of Romo, Beasley, Thornton, and Lawrence which effectively made the team have a 0 fWAR pen during that span. I feel like they addressed their main issues in the pen by getting guys that limit those HRs (Bass and Pop), and also getting GBs and weak contact. If we think Bass will regress, there's also reason to think Pop will improve.

I really would have loved a big strikeout guy for those bases juiced 1-out situations we'll see in the playoffs - which is why I would have loved Iglesias here. Richards just doesn't do it for me in this respect.

 

[Eyedea]

I don't want to continue boring everyone else, but when I pointed out that the meat of the trade was high-A guys you seemed shocked...but are now pivoting to Hassell (imo the #1 piece here despite what I can only assume are outdated BTV ratings) maybe not counting as a A+ guy because he's a really really good A+ guy. Ok.



No one has suggested going "all-in" in this thread, although yes, I'd have gladly done so for Soto or Ohtani.

I don't think you're far off. In fact James Wood is probably THE guy in the trade due to his Judge-ian toolset. And Susana is equally tantalizing but further away from the bigs. Both could easily become 60+ players if everything clicks.

 

[Bjindaho]

I don't want to continue boring everyone else, but when I pointed out that the meat of the trade was high-A guys you seemed shocked...but are now pivoting to Hassell (imo the #1 piece here despite what I can only assume are outdated BTV ratings) maybe not counting as a A+ guy because he's a really really good A+ guy. Ok.



No one has suggested going "all-in" in this thread, although yes, I'd have gladly done so for Soto or Ohtani.

Just an FYI, but Abrams is considered a Moreno level prospect.

Also, FanGraphs' midseason ranking has Abrams 11th overall (same FV as Moreno) and Hassell 41st. The Jays have Moreno (2nd) and Martinez (87th). Tiedemann would be in the 120 range by their list. Add Gore, who is a full time big leaguer.

 

[Eyedea]

Just an FYI, but Abrams is considered a Moreno level prospect.

Also, FanGraphs' midseason ranking has Abrams 11th overall (same FV as Moreno) and Hassell 41st. The Jays have Moreno (2nd) and Martinez (87th). Tiedemann would be in the 120 range by their list. Add Gore, who is a full time big leaguer.

FG didn't update their list. Tiedemann would be top 30 easy and Orelvis would probably be left off entirely.

As for Abrams, there's still some contact issues, lack of power, and he may need to be moved off SS. Padres already experimented with him in the outfield so who knows what his future value could be going forward. At least with Moreno there's good reason to believe he stays behind the plate and the bat obviously plays up at that position.

 

[stickty111]

Which is completely different than going all-in now to maximize the cheap core like you stated lmao. Trading prospects here and there is fine, especially when you have significant depth at the position. Emptying your farm system to maximize a 3 year window when you could've had a 5-10 year window if you just left it alone is the issue.

Who said going all in? There is a balance between what the Padres did and what we did. Jays management weren't anywhere close to the balance.
Can I ask you, when would you be more aggressive?

 

[Bjindaho]

The big takeaway for me (and the reason that I am okay with what we did) is that the Jays have been sucking in the development department.

Our prospect pool is largely Moreno and a bunch of guys who haven't played above A and/or who have warts.

FG didn't update their list. Tiedemann would be top 30 easy and Orelvis would probably be left off entirely.

As for Abrams, there's still some contact issues, lack of power, and he may need to be moved off SS. Padres already experimented with him in the outfield so who knows what his future value could be going forward. At least with Moreno there's good reason to believe he stays behind the plate and the bat obviously plays up at that position.

THE BOARD was updated for midseason: 2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

The individual team's pages were all preseason. Orelvis dropped from 55 preseason to 50 midseason and Tiedemann jumped from 40+ to 45+.

 

[stickty111]

The big takeaway for me (and the reason that I am okay with what we did) is that the Jays have been sucking in the development department.

Our prospect pool is largely Moreno and a bunch of guys who haven't played above A and/or who have warts.


THE BOARD was updated for midseason: 2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

The individual team's pages were all preseason. Orelvis dropped from 55 preseason to 50 midseason and Tiedemann jumped from 40+ to 45+.

Good point. Jays are getting praised for trading declining prospects and getting back value and thats good, but that may be a fundamental problem with their development system that it's happening too much. Thats a serious issue for the future

 

[Bjindaho]

Who said going all in? There is a balance between what the Padres did and what we did. Jays management weren't anywhere close to the balance.
Can I ask you, when would you be more aggressive?

I have serious questions about a lot of the guys that were acquired versus their cost. This was an extreme sellers market. Add in teams not liking a lot of our pieces below our big league roster and that creates issues.

I dislike that management won't spend money on our bullpen (and that they keep throwing the lie that is bullpen volatility at us). But our real opportunities were before the season when guys costed money (like McHugh, who was an absolute miss from management)

 

[Pink Mist]

OR…just maybe…they do know and can’t say anything about it due to confidentiality

Confidentiality of what? His current vaccine status is already known, and confidentiality on if he is getting vaccinated is kind of ridiculous since it would be self-evident the moment he steps into Canada

 

[conFABulator]

Cant believe we traded for this guy without doing the due diligence on finding out that he'd actually get vaxxed

We didn't. Schneider and the front office are just saying the classy things.

He will get vaccinated and it will appear to be his choice and not something he was forced to do.

He already said he would if he got traded to a contender that would be playing meaningful games in Canada....the Jays fit that description.

 

[Suntouchable13]

How aggressive should the Jays have been? All of the position on the field they have covered. Soto would have been nice, but then some of our clubhouse chemistry potentially could have disrupted. AS for starting pitching, would it have made sense to expend premium assets for another top of the rotation pitcher when we already have Monoah, Gausman, and Berrios? Think about it, how aggressive should they have been? The pieces to win are already here.

 

[Bjindaho]

We didn't. Schneider and the front office are just saying the classy things.

He will get vaccinated and it will appear to be his choice and not something he was forced to do.

He already said he would if he got traded to a contender that would be playing meaningful games in Canada....the Jays fit that description.

See, I took that quote to be him suggesting that he would like to be traded to Toronto

 

[conFABulator]

See, I took that quote to be him suggesting that he would like to be traded to Toronto

Possibly. He was a little more vague, but you could read it that way.

Anyone making a case out of us trading for an unvaccinated player is just trying to find a problem with this trade. He very clearly has said he would get vaccinated and it is easy to find these quotes.

 

[Bjindaho]

How aggressive should the Jays have been? All of the position on the field they have covered. Soto would have been nice, but then some of our clubhouse chemistry potentially could have disrupted. AS for starting pitching, would it have made sense to expend premium assets for another top of the rotation pitcher when we already have Monoah, Gausman, and Berrios? Think about it, how aggressive should they have been? The pieces to win are already here.

I was genuinely hoping that there would be a salary dump market. That disappeared when Gallo went to LAD for Beeter (LA's 13th best prospect).

I would have been extremely happy to pull a NYY/LAD/BOS and acquire a Mike Moustakas for Jeremy Beasley (granted, I would be expecting some quality prospects attached to Moustakas). Or take Corbin's salary and take back a top prospect like Henry.

 

[daethfromabove1979]

The big takeaway for me (and the reason that I am okay with what we did) is that the Jays have been sucking in the development department.

Our prospect pool is largely Moreno and a bunch of guys who haven't played above A and/or who have warts.

I agree the prospect cupboard is pretty bare right now but they've been pretty decent at developing guys up until the pandemic started, that put a real wrench into a lot of guy's trajectories. And in baseball, prospects are always coming out of nowhere every year so hopefully things turn around in 2023.

 

[Eyedea]

The big takeaway for me (and the reason that I am okay with what we did) is that the Jays have been sucking in the development department.

Our prospect pool is largely Moreno and a bunch of guys who haven't played above A and/or who have warts.


THE BOARD was updated for midseason: 2022 Top Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

The individual team's pages were all preseason. Orelvis dropped from 55 preseason to 50 midseason and Tiedemann jumped from 40+ to 45+.

That drop in Orelvis' FV was made 1.5 months ago. Not sure about Tiedemann's but it probably wasn't recent either. Frasso for instance got bumped from 35+ to 40+ back in May. We'd see a lot more movement on the board if it was fully updated.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I was genuinely hoping that there would be a salary dump market. That disappeared when Gallo went to LAD for Beeter (LA's 13th best prospect).

I would have been extremely happy to pull a NYY/LAD/BOS and acquire a Mike Moustakas for Jeremy Beasley (granted, I would be expecting some quality prospects attached to Moustakas). Or take Corbin's salary and take back a top prospect like Henry.

What about in the winter? Would you empty the farm system for Ohtani? I guess pending what the Jays do in the playoffs, but theoretically would you?

 

[Bjindaho]

What about in the winter? Would you empty the farm system for Ohtani? I guess pending what the Jays do in the playoffs, but theoretically would you?

I would absolutely. I believe that we would be trading pieces from our big league roster as well as prospects and that's a little harder in-season.

At the same time, looking at the other side, a Biggio for Tommy La Stella plus a top prospect deal could be one I am down for as well. Basically, flex our finances both ways.

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

Staying healthy, and getting Springer back are the real keys to our potential success. I like a healthy Jays to go toe to toe with anyone in the East, even as underdogs.