The Tatar-Danault-Gallagher line has fallen off a cliff. What is your explanation?

[Apfle Strubble]

For discussion’s sake, this have to be talked about

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They still outplay/out chance their opposition most nights. The three players could have more goals/conversion, especially Tatar. Danault also has 0 goal but he’s not expected to be the scorer.

I feel the negativity is overblowned. Gallagher and Danault are still +5, the line still have a positive impact even with the lack of productivity.

Dom should stick with it.

I agree they are underperfoming right now but look at the names on that list; there are like 6-8 real offence driving lines out of 19

Stuff like scoring chances and high scoring chances are not equal. A Matthews' high scoring chance is worth magnitudes more than a Danault's or Mete's one. Everyone one knows that, especially the opposing players. You don't play the same game against a meat and potato volume shooting line with little finish than against one with prime star forward talent

In these calculations, a McDrai, Pastrnak or Matthews scoring chance should be worth 5 of one of Gallagher, Danault and Tatar

 

[beowulf]

Confidence is as important as skills.

Gomez would agree

 

[beowulf]

Danault is a 13 goal first line center. What did people actually expect as his role changed. I don’t know how many times I beat this drum over the last two years.

Montreal’s biggest problem was having a 13 goal 50 point guy in their number one hole. When he shares duties and less offensive opportunities he turns into a 3rd liner who may finish the shortened season with 5-6 goals. He is not an offensive player he is simply bearing the fruits of a changed role. And he on top of all that is obviously struggling with an identity crisis thinking he is something he is not.

if he can humble himself and realize he can be a great 3rd line shutdown guy who can slide up occasionally when injuries occur I think he can turn it around

The thing is he has ZERO goals. Nobody is expecting him to suddenly score 50, but being 22 games into a season and having not scored yet for a guy that gets his share of ice time is totally unacceptable. It makes it look even worse given his decision not to take the Habs contract offer which given his talent, offensive production and solid defense was a very fair one.

 

[Cenzo_]

I think getting this line to perform is key to the Habs success this year so I would give Ducharme 2-3 more games to get them going but if it is not generating goals, it will be time to switch KK and Danault

 

[Habs]

you only go as far as your C, and Danualt is a pile of garbage.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

I agree they are underperfoming right now but look at the names on that list; there are like 6-8 real offence driving lines out of 19

Stuff like scoring chances and high scoring chances are not equal. A Matthews' high scoring chance is worth magnitudes more than a Danault's or Mete's one. Everyone one knows that, especially the opposing players. You don't play the same game against a meat and potato volume shooting line with little finish than against one with prime star forward talent

In these calculations, a McDrai, Pastrnak or Matthews scoring chance should be worth 5 of one of Gallagher, Danault and Tatar

That's simply not true. Danault is the worst "finisher" of them all, of course.

Since 18-19, all-situations, the best finisher is Pastrnak with an individual actual GF/expected GF ratio of 1.73. Danault is the worst at 0.73. That's 2.36 times higher. And this is when comparing the "best" to the "worst".

This are these "ratios" (player on the left divided by player on the top), plus their individual iG/ixGF, both at 5v5 and all-situations (including PP, PK, 3v3 OT, etc), for all the players you named (+OV) since 18-19. The lowest (or highest, depending on if you look line by line or column by column) ratios are unsuprisingly for Danault, and the worst is 2.70 (Draisaitl vs Danault at 5v5). Pretty much every other ratio is in the 1-2 (or 0.5-1) range.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Gallagher is one of the hardest workers in the NHL, he's just really not that skilled. Danault is an offensive black hole. Tatar is mediocre.

 

[Essenege]

Look at the players on that list. Being good at this cherry-picked advanced stat has almost no correlation to producing actual points.

Remove the lines with less then 100 minutes. You got all the offensive juggernauts (Mack, Mcdavid, Matthews) + good two way lines.

It’s not just a fancy stats. It’s a stat specifically designed to analyze players/line/teams level of play by removing the natural randomness in production.

Over the last 2 years, both the expected goal for % AND goal for % for that line is around 65%.

Edit: as mentioned in another post, in the last 3 years the expected goal differential of that line (+34) is exactly the same as their realized (+34)

 

[Essenege]

That's simply not true. Danault is the worst "finisher" of them all, of course.

Since 18-19, all-situations, the best finisher is Pastrnak with an individual actual GF/expected GF ratio of 1.73. Danault is the worst at 0.73. That's 2.36 times higher. And this is when comparing the "best" to the "worst".

This are these "ratios" (player on the left divided by player on the top), plus their individual iG/ixGF, both at 5v5 and all-situations (including PP, PK, 3v3 OT, etc), for all the players you named (+OV) since 18-19. The lowest (or highest, depending on if you look line by line or column by column) ratios are unsuprisingly for Danault, and the worst is 2.70 (Draisaitl vs Danault at 5v5). Pretty much every other ratio is in the 1-2 (or 0.5-1) range.

Wow like those tables a lot. Gallagher and Tatar compensate for Danault, as should be expected since they are the better finishers.

 

[salbutera]

Less TOI. Danault played on average almost 19 minutes last season. Almost 18 the previous season. I've been saying for 2 years their stats are inflated by the amount of TOI they got. 50 points playing almost 19 minutes is not good at all. It's actually mediocre.

Basu & Godin have an article addressing this topic on The Athletic. Takeaway: Dom Dom wants to make sure his system has been completely understood and part of teams DNA before overhauling lines especially given it’s been 1-week and players have been drinking out of a firehose trying to learn, they expect KK will see an incremental increase in TOI in the next next little while, and if Danault situation hasn’t improved within a couple of weeks, then will end up overhauling lines.

 

[Essenege]

I agree they are underperfoming right now but look at the names on that list; there are like 6-8 real offence driving lines out of 19

Stuff like scoring chances and high scoring chances are not equal. A Matthews' high scoring chance is worth magnitudes more than a Danault's or Mete's one. Everyone one knows that, especially the opposing players. You don't play the same game against a meat and potato volume shooting line with little finish than against one with prime star forward talent

In these calculations, a McDrai, Pastrnak or Matthews scoring chance should be worth 5 of one of Gallagher, Danault and Tatar

This season

Expected GF/GA : 10-4
Realized GF/GA : 6-3

2019-2020

Expected GF/GA : 37-23
Realized GF/GA : 36-26

2018-2019

Expected GF/GA : 38-24
Realized GF/GA : 41-20

Total

Expected GF/GA : 85-51 (+34)
Realized GF/GA : 83-49 (+34)

You were saying? The xGF% is a perfect predictor of the results of that line since they are together...Like there is not a single goal difference!

I'm gonna trust those stats ahead of the biased eyes and preconceived ideas of these board.

I'd like them to score more, but if they maintain a 2-1 advantage in GF/GA while playing opposing top lines, I'm gonna be pretty satisfied.

 

[Lshap]

It’s not just a fancy stats. It’s a stat specifically designed to analyze players/line/teams level of play by removing the natural randomness in production.

The best method of eliminating randomness is time. Over the past 13.5 months and 50+ games (regular season + playoffs), Danault has scored 1 goal on a goalie. That's no longer random; it's real data representing a good sample size. Citing hypothetical "Expected" goals is a weak counter-argument.

I'm gonna trust those stats ahead of the biased eyes and preconceived ideas of these board.

Isn't expected-goals the literal definition of a preconceived idea?

 

[habdynasty]

Danault is on the Mount Rushmore of habs stone handed players , there’s just nothing there . Play him with the other stone handed players.

 

[angusyoung]

Danault is on the Mount Rushmore of habs stone handed players , there’s just nothing there . Play him with the other stone handed players.

Why not play him with Byron and Armia? they can shut down the opposition top line and still get their points as they get them individual more or less anyways.

 

[Rosso Scuderia]

They were good in 2 years of mediocrity. Alot of ice time cause nobody else was available. Teams were not taking us seriously (pretty sure they still don't). How many times we played against backup goalies. Remembers me of Galchenyuk , was playing dogshit the entire season then when we knew we were out of playoffs he scored like 20goals in 17games.

He also started the following season, playing as a center, with a production of 23 pts in 25 games before getting injured. We all thought he's was about to break out but he was never the same.

About this thread. Chemistry doesn't last forever. They had good chemistry for 2 seasons and it's gone now. Just like the Pacioretty-DD chemistry, it expired at some point.

 

[angusyoung]

Back to the original question, PD sucks and Gallagher is not what he was and therefore TT is less effective,done!

 

[Zorba]

It’s all in Danault’s head. The guy absolutely put himself in a horrible horrible position and when the leak of his selfishness came out (thank god or that would have been yet another horrible contract awarded by MB), he’s clearly overthinking everything.

It clearly adds to an already streaky line, like many wrote Tatar is very streaky and Gallagher is a garbage goal machine, if he doesn’t get the chances because they aren’t generated, nothing he can do.

Maybe it’s in his head but there is no denying he’s a 3rd line centre on any contending team

 

[Zorba]

Back to the original question, PD sucks and Gallagher is not what he was and therefore TT is less effective,done!

Back to the original question, PD sucks and Gallagher is not what he was and therefore TT is less effective,done!

You do realize Gallagher is on pace for close to 30 g playing with one of the worst offensive centres in the league
There is ZERO wrong With Gallagher. Danualt is the problem. Bergevin is the long term problem who believed Danualt was a number one centre

 

[angusyoung]

You do realize Gallagher is on pace for close to 30 g playing with one of the worst offensive centres in the league
There is ZERO wrong With Gallagher. Danualt is the problem. Bergevin is the long term problem who believed Danualt was a number one centre

Yup! Gallagher's role is akin to forwards that play in the slot,garbage goals,and every team needs them depending on the makeup of the team. Remember Tim Kerr, Rick Vaive etc,those type players.

 

[Essenege]

The best method of eliminating randomness is time. Over the past 13.5 months and 50+ games (regular season + playoffs), Danault has scored 1 goal on a goalie. That's no longer random; it's real data representing a good sample size. Citing hypothetical "Expected" goals is a weak counter-argument.


Isn't expected-goals the literal definition of a preconceived idea?

We’re not talking about Danault but the line.

The line is 83-49 since playing together (+34). They were “expected” to be 85-51 over that time (+34). The stats works pretty good if you ask me.

It’s not a preconceived idea, it’s a statistical analysis of what type of play should generate goals. They don’t allow a lot of those play, they generate more then the opposition, consistently.

We do the same kind of analysis with the eye test, but our psychological biases will put emphasis on the players bad plays or good plays based on our views.

I prefer a tool that does it systematically, then my biased monkey brain (or someone else’s). Moneyball is amongst my favourite movie, I think the same principles can be applied to hockey although more carefully.

I’m sure the line is just fine in 5v5 goal differential in the last 50 games, would have to find the stat. This season they are 6-3, expected 10-4, playing the top lines regularly. That’s not bad at all.

 

[dkd]

Ya'll think Danault gets offered above minimum wage at Wendy's after this season if he continues like this?

 

[salbutera]

Why not play him with Byron and Armia? they can shut down the opposition top line and still get their points as they get them individual more or less anyways.

I suspect that’ll happen shortly - first KK will start getting more & more ice time, and if he shows he can handle it & Danault hasn’t shown production improvement Danault will either be dealt or put on a shutdown line. There’s an article in The Athletic today talking about Dom Dom’s approach

 

[salbutera]

Danault is on the Mount Rushmore of habs stone handed players , there’s just nothing there . Play him with the other stone handed players.

Not even close unless there’s some 10-spots for headshots on that mountain. Danault a nothing to write home about, but he’s not close to some of the doozies the Habs have had, starting off with Turner Stevenson

 

[angusyoung]

I suspect that’ll happen shortly - first KK will start getting more & more ice time, and if he shows he can handle it & Danault hasn’t shown production improvement Danault will either be dealt or put on a shutdown line. There’s an article in The Athletic today talking about Dom Dom’s approach

Well I certainly hope that changes are in the picture although I get that DD has had a very limited amount of time to experiment with other line combinations and D pairings.

 

[expy]

Tatar is on pace for 20 goals in 82 games
Gallagher is on pace for 28 goals in 82 games
Danault is on pace for 0 goal in 82 games

RDS and TVA Sports should hire you.