The Tatar-Danault-Gallagher line has fallen off a cliff. What is your explanation?

[Essenege]

If we’re gonna talk about the 6 5v5 goals of that line..

Can we also talk about the mere 3 goals against?

Playing top lines, starts skewed in the d-zone.

It’s pretty impressive and they are positive contributors to the team because of that.

Playing those minutes against McD/Matthews/Scheifele...Allows other forwards like KK to have a positive impact 5v5....I’m not sure KK is at 60% GF% 5v5 playing those top players. (Even though I really like his improvement this season)

 

[Milhouse40]

Ya'll think Danault gets offered above minimum wage at Wendy's after this season if he continues like this?

Come on, it's still Danault.....even if he continues like this, he'll always a place waiting for him in Montreal:

 

[dcyhabs]

Danault is about 3 goals short of his normal production give or take an assist or two. There is value in a line that shuts down good opposing lines and still puts up a few points. Tatar is close to his career average. I expect both are down a few points becase they get less ice and power play time, and because the power play has stunk. The habs problems are:
-overconfidence from scoring on Koskinen and the defenseless Canucks while the new guys were going unsustainably full out to prove themselves.
-Price with bottom 10 stats
-Weak D, Weber playing like he did before the trade, only Romanov can move the puck. Bigger and more physical, but not good yet.
-No one who has really scored in the league before. Tatar's best year was 61 points, does any current hab have a better season on record?
-Bad special teams
-Pressure from the GM who needs the team to play the season the way they did the first 10 games. Too bad the Leafs and Jets aren't the Canucks, and the Canucks this year aren't the Canucks from last year.
-Salary cap. It was OK overpaying Weber and Price while they were good, looks like we have hit the down side of their contracts.
-Way too many penalties.

Everything will work out if Price starts saving 91% of shots and the power play starts scoring. Actually just getting Gallagher treated like a real player by the refs would probably fix most things, and getting him treated like Auston Matthews would put the habs on the power play 20 minutes a night.

 

[Apfle Strubble]

We’re not talking about Danault but the line.

The line is 83-49 since playing together (+34). They were “expected” to be 85-51 over that time (+34). The stats works pretty good if you ask me.

It’s not a preconceived idea, it’s a statistical analysis of what type of play should generate goals. They don’t allow a lot of those play, they generate more then the opposition, consistently.

We do the same kind of analysis with the eye test, but our psychological biases will put emphasis on the players bad plays or good plays based on our views.

I prefer a tool that does it systematically, then my biased monkey brain (or someone else’s). Moneyball is amongst my favourite movie, I think the same principles can be applied to hockey although more carefully.

I’m sure the line is just fine in 5v5 goal differential in the last 50 games, would have to find the stat. This season they are 6-3, expected 10-4, playing the top lines regularly. That’s not bad at all.

The tool is doing better than I thought I have to admit, especially with the 100 minutes filter but a model is as good as the data you feed it.

By defining what is and isn't a scoring chance, you do add some bias into it. Every choice that is made when transforming The data it's fed is not "fundamental" enough for the model to be really objective

Also, my other concerns are with errors and confidence. Who measures this stuff? Who validates that the guys who measure the stuff are doing it well. If you showed the same 10 games to all the people who measure these stats, would we have the same number from everybody. If not, an error should be needed. This is a reason why pretty much all sciences try to avoid measures done by humans because they are unreliable

The whole metrology behind these values is a black box

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

This isn't really all that hard to comprehend, if you look at their careers so far:

Tatar has always been an inconsistent Middle 6 skilled winger...who he's been with every team he's played on
Gallagher has always been a grit & determination Top 6 winger...not the most skilled but consistently plays above his weight class
Danault has always been a defense-first centre with limited offensive ability/creativity...

It's the same damn thing with our "supposed" Top D pairing:

Weber is a former Top Pairing RD who's lost a few steps and has always needed a PMD to be the most effective...
Chairot is a 4-5-6 Muscle-over-Mind LD that now thinks he's a Top Pairing PMD because of the coaching staff's ridiculous deployment of him...

SO either they fix the problems with deployment or they continue with the same ol' shyte that no longer is even remotely effective...it's pretty simple...

 

[morhilane]

-Salary cap. It was OK overpaying Weber and Price while they were good, looks like we have hit the down side of their contracts.

Weber came with his salary when he was acquired, you can thank Phily for it (offersheet to Nashville). It was 14 years long! It forced contract max length rules changes...

 

[26Mats]

Weber came with his salary when he was acquired, you can thank Phily for it (offersheet to Nashville). It was 14 years long! It forced contract max length rules changes...

After next season, Weber's actual salary is only 3M, and then 1M for the three final years. If we need to move his cap hit, it shouldn't be a problem to find a taker that isn't up against the cap.

The problem is, MB loves unskilled players. So he probably won't want to move him. He won't see a need to use that cap space on skilled players.

 

[Yukon Cornelius Habs]

After next season, Weber's actual salary is only 3M, and then 1M for the three final years. If we need to move his cap hit, it shouldn't be a problem to find a taker that isn't up against the cap.

The problem is, MB loves unskilled players. So he probably won't want to move him. He won't see a need to use that cap space on skilled players.

MB will probably promote him to double captain with a C on each shoulder before he ever trades him.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

Come on, it's still Danault.....even if he continues like this, he'll always a place waiting for him in Montreal:
View attachment 403628

Hm, that's not TVA Sports' studio.

 

[JimboJay]

Tatar seems to wear out his welcome wherever he goes.

You're going to have to explain that one. Tatar played 6 seasons with the team that drafted him (wings) and was traded when Vegas offered a crazy good package (1st, 2nd, 3rd). He played a total of 20 games for Vegas, didnt fit their system was traded to the habs. Thats it. How is that "wearing out his welcome wherever he goes?" lol.

 

[morhilane]

After next season, Weber's actual salary is only 3M, and then 1M for the three final years. If we need to move his cap hit, it shouldn't be a problem to find a taker that isn't up against the cap.

The problem is, MB loves unskilled players. So he probably won't want to move him. He won't see a need to use that cap space on skilled players.

Indeed it is an easy contract to move very soon and if he retires after 2022 before the end of it, Nashville is stuck with the recapture penalties and cap hit, not the Habs.

Bergevin will need the cap space for the kids in a few years. It's not even about getting skilled players from elsewhere.

 

[26Mats]

You're going to have to explain that one. Tatar played 6 seasons with the team that drafted him (wings) and was traded when Vegas offered a crazy good package (1st, 2nd, 3rd). He played a total of 20 games for Vegas, didnt fit their system was traded to the habs. Thats it. How is that "wearing out his welcome wherever he goes?" lol.

If Drouin could play well with KK and Toffoli, Anderson, or Gallagher, I'd like to see Tatar with Suzuki and one of the above 3 RW's.

 

[HabsAddict]

There is a video of Bbing throwing a goal into his net.

So he didn't want that to be the only reminder of his NHL career so he signed 2 defenseman fully capable of throwing TWO goals into their own net.

You gots to see dem big pictures thinking....

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

There is a video of Bbing throwing a goal into his net.

So he didn't want that to be the only reminder of his NHL career so he signed 2 defenseman fully capable of throwing TWO goals into their own net.

You gots to see dem big pictures thinking....

?

 

[Censored Toad]

The easy answer is they aren't good enough. Gally might do ok. The rest? Blah
I still cannot believe we never sold TAR TAR when he was flying high after we picked him up. He would have fetched some nice stuff, Sell patches, Get the potential stud in Sui Sui and flip Tartar sauce for high 1st rounder or good prospect... now that would have made me give old biceps a shiny gold star!

Instead we didn't and his value is in the dumpster. GJ MB!!!!

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

The easy answer is they aren't good enough. Gally might do ok. The rest? Blah
I still cannot believe we never sold TAR TAR when he was flying high after we picked him up. He would have fetched some nice stuff, Sell patches, Get the potential stud in Sui Sui and flip Tartar sauce for high 1st rounder or good prospect... now that would have made me give old biceps a shiny gold star!

Instead we didn't and his value is in the dumpster. GJ MB!!!!

The Montreal Mantra

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

Tatar should've been traded at the trade deadline last season, when his value was at its highest, before his abysmal 'playoffs' and this weird ass season.

Gallagher is all-in, all the time, but he always needed a player to create for him, that sure won't ever be Danault...

And Danault, well, seems like being Habs '1st line center' got to his head, then being reminded he was there by default (cause Julien) and being demoted by Muller pissed his ego so much he forgot what made him '1st line center' by default. Damn good thing he decided against signing that 6x5 offer...

Both him and Tatar being UFA, wouldn't mind dangling them to the highest bidder, to be honest... something Bergevin probably won't do, cause he's desperate to make the playoffs, and for some reasons, I think Ducharme has his hands tied by him, some choices he can't make...

I agree, Gallagher needs a good number 1 or 2 centre. Right now he’s got a 3rd liner and that’s all montreal has is 3rd line centre’s.

Maybe Suzuki is a 2nd liner right now but he’s slumping hard. Kotka just needs another couple years with his skating and he’ll be a number 2/1

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

I’m a firm believer in giving every center in Montreal, even evans, the best wingers on the team a couple games at the least to see if they can grow.

 

[Belial]

If we’re gonna talk about the 6 5v5 goals of that line..

Can we also talk about the mere 3 goals against?

Playing top lines, starts skewed in the d-zone.

It’s pretty impressive and they are positive contributors to the team because of that.

Playing those minutes against McD/Matthews/Scheifele...Allows other forwards like KK to have a positive impact 5v5....I’m not sure KK is at 60% GF% 5v5 playing those top players. (Even though I really like his improvement this season)

The guy is not even that behind of his usual offensive contribution...
The amount of criticism is just ridiculous.

 

[CHwest]

The guy is not even that behind of his usual offensive contribution...
The amount of criticism is just ridiculous.

The problem is his usual offensive contribution is offensive.

 

[Mrb1p]

The guy is not even that behind of his usual offensive contribution...
The amount of criticism is just ridiculous.

Yes, because his usual contribution is already brutal enough, now hes slumping.

 

[Censored Toad]

View attachment 403680

The Montreal Mantra

a classic!

 

[the]

You can put Danault and Gallagher on the 3rd line together. Tatar was always the star of that line, he can go on the 2nd line.

 

[superstar436]

Unless you have a Jagr or Kane on the wings, the center should always be blamed if the line is not producing. Remember Koivu or Sundin who always played with 3rd liners and made them produce more (higgins, savage, berezin, hurt renberg ....). This is what a centerman should be doing.

In Daneault's case, his wingers made him better offensively. Any GM with foresight will not wait and try to fix the situation before it is too late. Bergie tried to do that a month ago with Dubois but he failed.

I have no faith in KK for the near future (actually i never liked him. Looks like another eller) and what you see is what you will be gettingfrom Daneault for the next 5 years because he will be here for the next 5 years. They can't afford to let him go because he is un gars de chez nous !

 

[Belial]

The problem is his usual offensive contribution is offensive.

Yes, because his usual contribution is already brutal enough, now hes slumping.

His production at even strength was at the top of the league among centers the last couple of years as it was already brought up plenty of times but apparently, it doesn't matter.